MER advanced strongly today, making a gap at the opening and closing the gap at 280 levels and now fast approaching its all time high. It made a gap up today so I didn't buy.
On the otherhand, AP continued to decline today bleeding badly and losing another 5%. The reason of the decline? Nothing in particular. Immediate support is pegged at its 130-MA at 25.
The reason why MER is climbing up strongly is because they are going to go into the power generation business. The funny thing about it is, AP is already in the said sector and already generating power. The market is never really logical.
AGI did what I was expecting to do so I completed my buying today.
Bought MBT thinking that it is already oversold but I think I got in a little earlier as it dropped further at the closing.
Bought NIKL when it broke 19.
I am running out of adjectives for ORE.
LC gave off a short term buy signal today.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP)
PSEi 10-Year Daily Chart
The PSEi broke its major support line today. Is this the beginning of the end? It would seem not as the MACD are forming several rising troughs. The breaking of the said trendline only suggests that the market is slowing down to a more sustainable trend. With this being said, the market would simply move sideways for the meantime before heading back up again.
Breaking the secondary trendline would suggest further slowdown of the market.
Breaking down from the major support at 3870 levels would only suggest a deep correction(very deep in fact as it is pointing to 3500-3600 levels if it is an accelerated decline).
Market Condition: Sideways to down.
The PSEi broke its major support line today. Is this the beginning of the end? It would seem not as the MACD are forming several rising troughs. The breaking of the said trendline only suggests that the market is slowing down to a more sustainable trend. With this being said, the market would simply move sideways for the meantime before heading back up again.
Breaking the secondary trendline would suggest further slowdown of the market.
Breaking down from the major support at 3870 levels would only suggest a deep correction(very deep in fact as it is pointing to 3500-3600 levels if it is an accelerated decline).
Market Condition: Sideways to down.
Taking hits!
The market lost another 80.21 points today after meeting resistance at 4200 levels. I thought it was the lack of leads is what causing the landslide but apparently, it was the "poor" job data and debt problems in Europe. Pretty much old news to cause this drop. I'm more inclined to say that the recent drop is exaggerated. Anyway, I think it would be safe to assume that the short term support for the index is at the previous low of 3950.
Today, I sold all my remaining position in AP as every system that I used to trade it before told me to close it. I'll be waiting for it to form a higher through or an exceptionally bullish reversal pattern before getting in again. I wonder what did the guys that bought alot of AP at 32.80 do.
ORE is pretty much boring though. I am expecting it to move within 2 to 4 days.
I am simply waiting for my trade setups to take full form in NIKL, SMC, MBT and MPI in this particular order. By the way, COL already included NIKL in their marginable stocks.
BEL has started to correct too although I am not eager to buy it because of its long candle wicks although the bearish RSI divergence has been negated already.
MER gave a buy signal today. My buying wasn't hit at the closing so I will try to buy tomorrow at the opening if it doesn't gap.
Bought a few AGI today for range trading. I am going to complete my buying tomorrow if momentum confirms it.
I think I will drop JGS from my "oversold and recovering watch list" and I would focus my attention on URC. They bought back 800k shares at 34.95 at the market.
Judging the behavior of the index, looks like the market is going to trend up slowly again which I like better rather than them surging up like crazy.
Today, I sold all my remaining position in AP as every system that I used to trade it before told me to close it. I'll be waiting for it to form a higher through or an exceptionally bullish reversal pattern before getting in again. I wonder what did the guys that bought alot of AP at 32.80 do.
ORE is pretty much boring though. I am expecting it to move within 2 to 4 days.
I am simply waiting for my trade setups to take full form in NIKL, SMC, MBT and MPI in this particular order. By the way, COL already included NIKL in their marginable stocks.
BEL has started to correct too although I am not eager to buy it because of its long candle wicks although the bearish RSI divergence has been negated already.
MER gave a buy signal today. My buying wasn't hit at the closing so I will try to buy tomorrow at the opening if it doesn't gap.
Bought a few AGI today for range trading. I am going to complete my buying tomorrow if momentum confirms it.
I think I will drop JGS from my "oversold and recovering watch list" and I would focus my attention on URC. They bought back 800k shares at 34.95 at the market.
Judging the behavior of the index, looks like the market is going to trend up slowly again which I like better rather than them surging up like crazy.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Way to kick off the week!~
Wow landslide! The index lost 89.94 points today. Majority of the issues today are simply free falling. I am assuming that the lack of lead is the cause of this free fall. Anyway, it is still basura plays which I don't know how to trade so I am simply holding current positions.
Ap went into a steep decline today and it is still within short term downtrend. Should it close at 31.50 or higher would suggest the end of the down trend. During the weekend, I was hoping that AP would open on its low. Well, my wish was granted and more! A bounce from 28.50 should provide a good entry.
Terrible timing with ORE but prices are currently still holding up above my stops.
There are only handful of stocks in my watchlist that are still holding up. BEL, MBT, MER, MPI, mining stocks(ORE, PX, AT, LC, NIKL), SMC and PCOR.
AGI looks nice for range trading. Support is at 11 levels and resistance at 12.50-13 levels.
DMC looks good for a breakout play although it is still moving sideways within a very tight channel.
JGS and URC are still on the reversal/oversold playlist.
Stocks that are on the top of my list are MBT, NIKL, and SMC.
Stay with strength!
Ap went into a steep decline today and it is still within short term downtrend. Should it close at 31.50 or higher would suggest the end of the down trend. During the weekend, I was hoping that AP would open on its low. Well, my wish was granted and more! A bounce from 28.50 should provide a good entry.
Terrible timing with ORE but prices are currently still holding up above my stops.
There are only handful of stocks in my watchlist that are still holding up. BEL, MBT, MER, MPI, mining stocks(ORE, PX, AT, LC, NIKL), SMC and PCOR.
AGI looks nice for range trading. Support is at 11 levels and resistance at 12.50-13 levels.
DMC looks good for a breakout play although it is still moving sideways within a very tight channel.
JGS and URC are still on the reversal/oversold playlist.
Stocks that are on the top of my list are MBT, NIKL, and SMC.
Stay with strength!
Friday, January 7, 2011
No more momentum trading.
Nothing much happened to me in today's trading, except getting whipsawed in CYBR. 1% gain vs 24% gain in 1 day differential. Wow, I really suck at this. Day/Momentum trading feels like I'm buying impulsively. Going back to my usual trading.
Congrats to those who can profit from day trading!~
Anyway, I am positive that mining would start moving by next week(including my position in ORE as its ROC just got positive today). I'm going to let it hit my stop.
AP done with the final accelerated intraday drop today? I hope so, so it could finally start moving back up again.
I'm going to look for possible trades once I exit ORE(alive) this weekend. I am also going to test a lot of things on Metastock as I have finally got the data I needed(backing up to 1999).
Looks like its going to be a busy weekend.
Congrats to those who can profit from day trading!~
Anyway, I am positive that mining would start moving by next week(including my position in ORE as its ROC just got positive today). I'm going to let it hit my stop.
AP done with the final accelerated intraday drop today? I hope so, so it could finally start moving back up again.
I'm going to look for possible trades once I exit ORE(alive) this weekend. I am also going to test a lot of things on Metastock as I have finally got the data I needed(backing up to 1999).
Looks like its going to be a busy weekend.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
"Long term investor"
Sold CYBR for 1.36% profit! I was being greedy and stupid thinking that it will still climb higher right after the opening. I suck at day trading! I'll try to test it this month. If I don't get better at this, I would simply stick to short to medium term trading instead.
Bought ORE today at 3.85. I thought it would close higher before getting sold down at the last minute! I already bought at the last 30 minutes of trading and still end up with paper loss? I might be handing my money to JAP! Just kidding. I checked the previous transactions of ORE this week starting from Jan 3 and I found out that JAP(broker) is still holding around a million or so shares. Looking at last month's war chest, JAP is holding around 30 millions shares or so. From the looks of it, I am going to be a "long term investor" in here as they still have 30 million shares to sell! Haha!
My only consolation for keeping my negative position here in ORE is, it is poised to go up as suggested by the increasing(slight) ROC. Should have put my bet NIKL for the mining play. Anyway, what done is done and I am simply going to let it hit my stop before getting out.
AP closing above 32 would suggest the start of the uptrend. Bounce from 30 already~
Oh, and did anyone notice that the same amount of shares that was bought up yesterday in PA was also sold today? That's alot of "investors" right there!
*Metastock update: I tried to use the downloadable data from COL's website. Unfortunately, most of the files have "bad date" rendering some of metastock's feature useless. Anyway, I'll try to get the data using PSEGET today.
*As I was checking the monthly warchest starting from November, I found out that in November and December, A&A Securities have been buying(no selling done). Who could A&A Sec be? Sure they have lesser amount of shares than JAP but they never sell(except this week as they sold 30k shares).
Bought ORE today at 3.85. I thought it would close higher before getting sold down at the last minute! I already bought at the last 30 minutes of trading and still end up with paper loss? I might be handing my money to JAP! Just kidding. I checked the previous transactions of ORE this week starting from Jan 3 and I found out that JAP(broker) is still holding around a million or so shares. Looking at last month's war chest, JAP is holding around 30 millions shares or so. From the looks of it, I am going to be a "long term investor" in here as they still have 30 million shares to sell! Haha!
My only consolation for keeping my negative position here in ORE is, it is poised to go up as suggested by the increasing(slight) ROC. Should have put my bet NIKL for the mining play. Anyway, what done is done and I am simply going to let it hit my stop before getting out.
AP closing above 32 would suggest the start of the uptrend. Bounce from 30 already~
Oh, and did anyone notice that the same amount of shares that was bought up yesterday in PA was also sold today? That's alot of "investors" right there!
*Metastock update: I tried to use the downloadable data from COL's website. Unfortunately, most of the files have "bad date" rendering some of metastock's feature useless. Anyway, I'll try to get the data using PSEGET today.
*As I was checking the monthly warchest starting from November, I found out that in November and December, A&A Securities have been buying(no selling done). Who could A&A Sec be? Sure they have lesser amount of shares than JAP but they never sell(except this week as they sold 30k shares).
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
URC 3-YR Daily Chart
URC seems like nearing/at the bottom already as there has been a bullish MACD divergence on the daily charts.
If the bands constrict at 34 levels, a breakout from that level would suggest the reversal of the intermediate trend.
Watch it, no need to rush to get in as it might still slide further.
URC seems like nearing/at the bottom already as there has been a bullish MACD divergence on the daily charts.
If the bands constrict at 34 levels, a breakout from that level would suggest the reversal of the intermediate trend.
Watch it, no need to rush to get in as it might still slide further.
Metastock!
I finally got myself Metastock! Yay! I am psyched! Anyway, I have been tinkering with it last night and I find some useful stuff like scanning the entire market with your own trading conditions, etc etc. Unfortunately, I only have 6 months worth of data to backtest the trading systems that are included in the application so that's a little let down. Anyway, I am trying to figure out how to get and convert the downloadable data from citisec.
Thanks to Sir Jax (from FM) a.k.a. Mr. Jun Ignacio. You can visit his website at http://funnymentals.uphero.com. If you need help to systematize your trading, you can avail his services through the website! Many thanks again sir Jax!
Got to go and play with Metastock!~
*AP is looking to head down to 30.50 before bouncing back up! I am basing on intraday speed resistance lines. It has broke down from 2 speed resistance lines so it is now heading for a quick intraday drop!
Thanks to Sir Jax (from FM) a.k.a. Mr. Jun Ignacio. You can visit his website at http://funnymentals.uphero.com. If you need help to systematize your trading, you can avail his services through the website! Many thanks again sir Jax!
Got to go and play with Metastock!~
*AP is looking to head down to 30.50 before bouncing back up! I am basing on intraday speed resistance lines. It has broke down from 2 speed resistance lines so it is now heading for a quick intraday drop!
Sucker game in play?
I was choosing between CYBR and LND today and I decided to buy CYBR at 0.81 at the closing with my available funds today as it seems to have stronger momentum. Hopefully it goes well tomorrow.
LND formed a bullish engulfing which provides a good signal for short term trading. However, it is relatively at the top of its trading range which I feel much risky than the momentum setup in CYBR.
I missed PA too as there's no way for me to buy it(well I was trying to figure out ways to trade this type of issue). Buying PA at the closing is probably the best method to take position in this type of issue - plus the fact that it was illiquid for the past year - no way for me to catch a trade like this.
Hopefully, I could get out alive with CYBR just in time for MER/MPI/SMC/LC.
Still holding AP. Let's see how it goes next week. For the meantime, basura plays. :)
Oh, and I finally figured out how to trade those long white candlesticks! :)
LND formed a bullish engulfing which provides a good signal for short term trading. However, it is relatively at the top of its trading range which I feel much risky than the momentum setup in CYBR.
I missed PA too as there's no way for me to buy it(well I was trying to figure out ways to trade this type of issue). Buying PA at the closing is probably the best method to take position in this type of issue - plus the fact that it was illiquid for the past year - no way for me to catch a trade like this.
Hopefully, I could get out alive with CYBR just in time for MER/MPI/SMC/LC.
Still holding AP. Let's see how it goes next week. For the meantime, basura plays. :)
Oh, and I finally figured out how to trade those long white candlesticks! :)
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Correction, Your Honor!~
I was planning to do some day trading today and CYBR was on the top of my list and I would only trade it if it doesn't make a gap on the opening - exactly what happened today so I didn't buy it. Instead, I decided to look for possible trades for the day.
I didn't find anything worth trading (with minimal risk). So no trades were executed today.
Fortunately, stocks that are trending/moving up strongly for the past week that I've been watching has started to make corrections: SMC, MPI, MER, and BEL. BEL, however, is showing RSI bearish divergence so I am having doubts on to whether to trade it or not. I read before that a trader should look out for signs on not to trade the stock. That's a reason not to trade so I might take it out of the my list. NIKL also looks nice so I might also trade it when I find a good entry.
I am still looking to trade third liners/penny stocks though.
Looks like AGI is just range trading for the mean time. It needs to form a higher low - a bounce at 12 levels - to resume its uptrend.
I wanted to buy AEV today but somehow I did not have the guts to execute the trade. RSI breakout and turning up of the ROC should have been enough to trade it. It might be the limited short term upside.
JGS seems to be having a bullish RSI divergence.
And did ICT formed a double top today?
I didn't find anything worth trading (with minimal risk). So no trades were executed today.
Fortunately, stocks that are trending/moving up strongly for the past week that I've been watching has started to make corrections: SMC, MPI, MER, and BEL. BEL, however, is showing RSI bearish divergence so I am having doubts on to whether to trade it or not. I read before that a trader should look out for signs on not to trade the stock. That's a reason not to trade so I might take it out of the my list. NIKL also looks nice so I might also trade it when I find a good entry.
I am still looking to trade third liners/penny stocks though.
Looks like AGI is just range trading for the mean time. It needs to form a higher low - a bounce at 12 levels - to resume its uptrend.
I wanted to buy AEV today but somehow I did not have the guts to execute the trade. RSI breakout and turning up of the ROC should have been enough to trade it. It might be the limited short term upside.
JGS seems to be having a bullish RSI divergence.
And did ICT formed a double top today?
Monday, January 3, 2011
Metropolitan Bank and Trust Com. (MBT)
MBT bounced from its major uptrend line invalidating the target of the reversed head and shoulder pattern when it broke down.
Best case scenario is that it retraces and finds support somewhere at 68 levels, forming a new high low to resume its uptrend.
However, it could also range trade within 68-73 in the meantime.
Metro Pacific Investment Corp (MPI)
This is how it looked like after a week:
10% in a week - not bad for a short term trade!
Apply a trailing stop for those who want more!
10% in a week - not bad for a short term trade!
Apply a trailing stop for those who want more!
Still tired after a week long vacation?!
Just returned from the week-long vacation early this morning. Man, I missed few good trades early this morning! I was supposed to buy CYBR on the opening today but I completely forgot about it! I already labeled it in the newspaper last week(since there's no easily accessible internet in Quezon province) but I was pretty tired with 2 hours of sleep from the trip so there, I missed the trade.
MER and MPI too! And I wasn't expecting MER to steadily climb up to 250 levels.
The only consolation for me now is there would be more trades like them in the future.
I liquidated my position in AGI today so I'll have funds for short term trading as I plan to trade more actively this year - by actively i mean to have more quality trades rather than the 2-point-profits I did before the year ended. I also feel like AGI is simply range bound in the meantime so there.
Also, as you can see, AP is still in consolidation mode although I am expecting it to finally move back up by next week~
Anyway, I'll be practicing how to day/momentum trading with the proceeds from AGI this month. However, if I find a better trade setup tomorrow, I think I'll take the old fashion trade setup first.
On the watchlist I made before the year-end, JGS and URC performed poorly specially JGS as it brokedown from its secondary trendline and now heading to the primary trendline. It could head down up to P15 and There's now certainty that it will bounce back from there(unless Mr. G buy backs another truckload of shares like what he did in URC back then).
So for now, it would be safe to assume that they are out of trend in the mean time as the weekly chart is also down.
Update on MPI chart~
MER and MPI too! And I wasn't expecting MER to steadily climb up to 250 levels.
The only consolation for me now is there would be more trades like them in the future.
I liquidated my position in AGI today so I'll have funds for short term trading as I plan to trade more actively this year - by actively i mean to have more quality trades rather than the 2-point-profits I did before the year ended. I also feel like AGI is simply range bound in the meantime so there.
Also, as you can see, AP is still in consolidation mode although I am expecting it to finally move back up by next week~
Anyway, I'll be practicing how to day/momentum trading with the proceeds from AGI this month. However, if I find a better trade setup tomorrow, I think I'll take the old fashion trade setup first.
On the watchlist I made before the year-end, JGS and URC performed poorly specially JGS as it brokedown from its secondary trendline and now heading to the primary trendline. It could head down up to P15 and There's now certainty that it will bounce back from there(unless Mr. G buy backs another truckload of shares like what he did in URC back then).
So for now, it would be safe to assume that they are out of trend in the mean time as the weekly chart is also down.
Update on MPI chart~
Monday, December 27, 2010
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Alliance Global Group (AGI)
Weekly Chart
1. Price has crossed above the 10EMA.
2. MACD is poised to generate a buy signal.
3. RS is recovering and building up.
Daily Chart
Price has crossed above 10EMA, 20 and 50SMA. The last time it did -early August, it made a run from 5.75 until it tanked at 10.90.
Conclusion:
Poised to breakout of its sideways movement.
Bullish on short and medium term.
If trading range is broken, pattern target: P14
1. Price has crossed above the 10EMA.
2. MACD is poised to generate a buy signal.
3. RS is recovering and building up.
Daily Chart
Price has crossed above 10EMA, 20 and 50SMA. The last time it did -early August, it made a run from 5.75 until it tanked at 10.90.
Conclusion:
Poised to breakout of its sideways movement.
Bullish on short and medium term.
If trading range is broken, pattern target: P14
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
MPI (Metro Pacific Investment Corp)
I can't believe that I missed this!
1. Buy signal on MACD
2. Support found and tested (the dragonfly candle and red hammer)
3. RSI bullish divergence
4. Price closing above 10EMA.
4 is definitely going to be tested again.
1. Buy signal on MACD
2. Support found and tested (the dragonfly candle and red hammer)
3. RSI bullish divergence
4. Price closing above 10EMA.
4 is definitely going to be tested again.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Now serving Whipped cream
Another whipsaw on BEL as it advanced again today by 8%. That's what you get when you try to outsmart your own system. I missed both big moves on SMC and BEL!
MBT had a weak follow through today as it only gained 0.85% today. Anyway, I'm just going to let MBT run for a while. I'll keep it until next year if it closes up strongly this week.
I doubt that day trading is for me.
AP is still looking out for support. Best case scenario is that it resumes its uptrend in 2 weeks.
MBT had a weak follow through today as it only gained 0.85% today. Anyway, I'm just going to let MBT run for a while. I'll keep it until next year if it closes up strongly this week.
I doubt that day trading is for me.
AP is still looking out for support. Best case scenario is that it resumes its uptrend in 2 weeks.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Got whipped!
The index seems to be still in a choppy mood. Hopefully, it would start to resume its uptrend by early next year as suggested by the RSI and ROC.
Got whipped hard in SMC as it finally got into the lower range of the offering at 150 while BEL produced mediocre result.
Sold BEL today at 3.98.
Bought MBT at 64.50 as the confirmation of the RSI buy signal was relatively strong.
Still looking to trade stocks with momentum until the year ends!
Got whipped hard in SMC as it finally got into the lower range of the offering at 150 while BEL produced mediocre result.
Sold BEL today at 3.98.
Bought MBT at 64.50 as the confirmation of the RSI buy signal was relatively strong.
Still looking to trade stocks with momentum until the year ends!
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Thoughts before trading week
There had been alot of fundamentally sound stocks that are currently free-falling, some have found support already while the others are still doing their thing.
Although it would be best to wait for the dust to clear out for the others, what would be the right thing to do with the stocks that have found support already?
One particular stock is looking extremely attractive technically and I wanted to try my theory out since I couldn't find concrete answer in the interwebs.
Let's see if I could trade them before this week ends.
Although it would be best to wait for the dust to clear out for the others, what would be the right thing to do with the stocks that have found support already?
One particular stock is looking extremely attractive technically and I wanted to try my theory out since I couldn't find concrete answer in the interwebs.
Let's see if I could trade them before this week ends.