Thursday, February 3, 2011
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Interesting Candlesticks
While scanning for trade setups today, I found these interesting candlesticks that I have never seen before - during the run up and in the books. I just saw them today - during the downtrend and dead cats:
All of them showed at the bottom(downtrend) and I have no idea what they mean.
Moving on through my scans, I found yet another sample of the candlestick formation which is older by 3 days:
Does it mean reversal? Forming a base? Or bearishly consolidating at the bottom?
Let's make it more complicated. I found the same pattern on an issue that has moved up:
It looks like a dark cloud cover, only this time, it's not a dark cloud.
Not a bullish engulfing.
Not a piercing pattern.
Not a kicking pattern.
If none of the above, what could it be?
Oh and volume is pretty heavy on the long white candle.
I think I just found out another way to complicate my trading!
All of them showed at the bottom(downtrend) and I have no idea what they mean.
Moving on through my scans, I found yet another sample of the candlestick formation which is older by 3 days:
Does it mean reversal? Forming a base? Or bearishly consolidating at the bottom?
Let's make it more complicated. I found the same pattern on an issue that has moved up:
It looks like a dark cloud cover, only this time, it's not a dark cloud.
Not a bullish engulfing.
Not a piercing pattern.
Not a kicking pattern.
If none of the above, what could it be?
Oh and volume is pretty heavy on the long white candle.
I think I just found out another way to complicate my trading!
Foreign Activity
NFS for today amounted to around 340M. That's 1Bil NFS in two days. Since the foreign brokerage houses can short on their own, they are probably covering up today.
Foreign selling is still very heavy in BDO with another 220M(180 yesterday) while the second heaviest foreign selling yesterday FLI turned around today with 49M NFB.
Foreign buying has also began in certain issues today like AP with 81M, FLI 49M and CEB 48M.
If the foreigns stop depressing the market, we could actually climb a little higher in the short term (so they could short again with better gains).
Foreign selling is still very heavy in BDO with another 220M(180 yesterday) while the second heaviest foreign selling yesterday FLI turned around today with 49M NFB.
Foreign buying has also began in certain issues today like AP with 81M, FLI 49M and CEB 48M.
If the foreigns stop depressing the market, we could actually climb a little higher in the short term (so they could short again with better gains).
And today I was like...
I sold MER at 228 today hence the picture. I made some profit from it anyway but could have gotten more if I sat still and wait until the closing before selling.
I already wrote a plan to sell it at 240. Way to follow your plan.
*Positions opened up at the closing should be sold either on the next day's opening rush or at the closing, not during mid-sessions.
Sold LC for a loss too during mid-session despite heavy buying of Wealth, JAP and Regina these past few days. I'll be damned if it moves up tomorrow which is highly likely as a doji has formed today.
Sold SCC for a small loss plus commission.
So there, with the 1.58% gain of the index today, I closed all positions that hardly gave profit. Turnover for today dropped to 4Bil which is lower from yesterday.
AGI tried to break out of 12 today but could not sustain the strength until closing so I guess it is going to head a little lower by the end of the week. I would have put up a position in it had it closed higher than 12 today.
ATR seems to be gobbling up NIKL shares at 19.90 to 20 levels this past few days. Hopefully it will do good to the issue in the short term.
For now, I am just waiting for trade setups in SMC, AGI and NIKL. Will post useful charts(hopefully) later.
In a downtrend, the right thing to do is to open a short position. Opening long positions would be illogical. So with the "long only" market that we have, what's the right thing to do now? Yep, that's right.
*With the market moving down, I am going to play a game called "short the market". I'll look for certain issues to short hypothetically. Short positions would last longer like regular short positions in global markets instead of the 1-day-only short in our market.
Global Markets
US and European markets closed more than 1% higher. DOW is back to 12k levels.
Nikkei and Topix are also up by more than 1%.
Baby Jesus let Index rebound today.
Nikkei and Topix are also up by more than 1%.
Baby Jesus let Index rebound today.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Nickel Price Graph
No idea if this chart could be read the same as reading stock charts or if this is the right chart at all but I am going to post it anyway:
IF it can be read the same way as any other stock charts, price breaking out of reversed head and shoulder would suggest a target of 28500.
That would be good for NIKL right? Just keeping my hopes up! Anyway, it is definitely trending up. Still good for NIKL right? Right?! Haha
**European markets are up by almost 1% as of this writing. Asian markets closed slightly higher. Hopefully the market recovers tomorrow(despite of the fugly chart).
IF it can be read the same way as any other stock charts, price breaking out of reversed head and shoulder would suggest a target of 28500.
That would be good for NIKL right? Just keeping my hopes up! Anyway, it is definitely trending up. Still good for NIKL right? Right?! Haha
**European markets are up by almost 1% as of this writing. Asian markets closed slightly higher. Hopefully the market recovers tomorrow(despite of the fugly chart).
Foreign Activity
I was browsing the quotation report for today and I only found 4 stocks with significant foreign buying:
PNB with 7M down today
AMC 8.9M unchanged
EDC 15.5M down today
PLDT 47M down today
While 2 issues got heavily battered with foreign selling:
BDO 112M NFS out of 180M worth of trades
FLI 97M NFS out of 130M worth of trades
Net foreign selling amounted to more than 700M today. How much they pulled out of the market, I lost track and I really didn't monitor the overall market's foreign activity, just on specific issues.
PNB with 7M down today
AMC 8.9M unchanged
EDC 15.5M down today
PLDT 47M down today
While 2 issues got heavily battered with foreign selling:
BDO 112M NFS out of 180M worth of trades
FLI 97M NFS out of 130M worth of trades
Net foreign selling amounted to more than 700M today. How much they pulled out of the market, I lost track and I really didn't monitor the overall market's foreign activity, just on specific issues.
Free falling
The GDP report hardly gave the market a push, opening with a high of +15 points before sliding down, completely losing 50.98 point at the closing. If the market drops another 50 points tomorrow, 3800 levels with definitely be taken out. When that happens, I think it would be much safer to liquidate all positions and wait until the market falls to 3600 levels before bottom fishing. The only consolation for us is the turnover during the slide today is lower than the previous days.
Blue chips are simply free falling today. There's hardly significant gainers for today except for TA +5% with 27M worth of trades.
NIKL is break-even with doubled up position from the starting position.
LC is hanging by a thread. We'll see tomorrow how this one will go.
SCC looks very ugly with the bearish engulfing candle today. I also feel like the ascending triangle formation is already invalid but it seem like it is now forming a symmetrical triangle. The accompanying volume doesn't seem to fit the pattern though.
SMC gap is almost filled so another round might be just around the corner.
Still waiting for AGI to drop further.
AP is getting ready to break down.
I put up a small position in MER today. Hoping for a stronger cat to bounce. Macquarie just seems to be on a selling spree.
Blue chips are simply free falling today. There's hardly significant gainers for today except for TA +5% with 27M worth of trades.
NIKL is break-even with doubled up position from the starting position.
LC is hanging by a thread. We'll see tomorrow how this one will go.
SCC looks very ugly with the bearish engulfing candle today. I also feel like the ascending triangle formation is already invalid but it seem like it is now forming a symmetrical triangle. The accompanying volume doesn't seem to fit the pattern though.
SMC gap is almost filled so another round might be just around the corner.
Still waiting for AGI to drop further.
AP is getting ready to break down.
I put up a small position in MER today. Hoping for a stronger cat to bounce. Macquarie just seems to be on a selling spree.
GDP for 2010
Hopefully the 7.1% GDP growth of the fourth quarter last year is enough to produce a technical bounce today.
http://www.bworld.com.ph/content.php?title=Strong%20growth%20for%202010&id=25527
http://www.bworld.com.ph/content.php?title=Strong%20growth%20for%202010&id=25527
Monday, January 31, 2011
Nothing much.
Besides the fact that the index got severely murdered in today's trading, nothing much happened in today's session. The index wasn't spared from the turmoil overseas(Egypt), closing 2.24% lower from yesterday. As of writing, Asian markets are down by more than 1% so that still makes us the biggest loser, second to NASDAQ's drop last Friday at -2.48%.
The drop was led by TEL -0.73%, AP -5.29%, MER -6.93%, BPI -4.98%, AC -5.29%,
SM -3.89%, AGI -2.71%, and MBT -2.55%.
Panic selling was seen everywhere. My core stock - NIKL - experienced its heaviest drop today, dropping to 19 before closing 19.54, 4.68% lower from yesterday.
The drop today left huge gaps at (20.50 and 20.10) and (19.90 and 19.70) visible on the 5-minute candlestick chart.
I am expecting the gap at 19.90-19.70 to be filled in the next few days but I am having doubts that the gap at 19.90 will be filled immediately.
I put up another small position at 19.44 today.
SCC is very heavy, closing almost unchanged at 198.90 - my original entry. I am hoping that it rebounds in the short term as Oil is starting to move up again.
It looks like it's forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart.
Yikes with LC. Timing of entry is a little off but the stock is moving within expectations. Rising method candle pattern on the weekly chart.
I couldn't make anything out of SMC so I wont be touching it in the short term or until it fills the gap.
AP seems to be forming a symmetrical triangle pattern(bearish) on the daily chart.
I am patiently waiting for AGI.
The game has definitely changed. Dead cats, anyone?
The drop was led by TEL -0.73%, AP -5.29%, MER -6.93%, BPI -4.98%, AC -5.29%,
SM -3.89%, AGI -2.71%, and MBT -2.55%.
Panic selling was seen everywhere. My core stock - NIKL - experienced its heaviest drop today, dropping to 19 before closing 19.54, 4.68% lower from yesterday.
The drop today left huge gaps at (20.50 and 20.10) and (19.90 and 19.70) visible on the 5-minute candlestick chart.
I am expecting the gap at 19.90-19.70 to be filled in the next few days but I am having doubts that the gap at 19.90 will be filled immediately.
I put up another small position at 19.44 today.
SCC is very heavy, closing almost unchanged at 198.90 - my original entry. I am hoping that it rebounds in the short term as Oil is starting to move up again.
It looks like it's forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart.
Yikes with LC. Timing of entry is a little off but the stock is moving within expectations. Rising method candle pattern on the weekly chart.
I couldn't make anything out of SMC so I wont be touching it in the short term or until it fills the gap.
AP seems to be forming a symmetrical triangle pattern(bearish) on the daily chart.
I am patiently waiting for AGI.
The game has definitely changed. Dead cats, anyone?
Friday, January 28, 2011
Trading plan
Here is the trading plan that I made for this past week:
I never took position in MEG but in SMC instead.
Avoid/Sell holding and industrial stocks.
Buy financial and property stocks for oversold/technical bounce play.
Buy mining stocks for bucking the short/medium term downtrend but be extra careful.
Check for bearish rsi divergences to spot weakness as weakness has already starting to surface.
Take positions in leaders.
MEG in property sector.
NIKL/LC/SCC in mining sector.
General market short to medium term trend is down.
I never took position in MEG but in SMC instead.
I told you so.
I was judging SMC strength the entire time today on to whether I would sell it or not by watching the price action and the 5-minute chart. There seemed little appetite for shares above 178 so I sold mine to lock in profits.
Although there were only few shares asked at 176.50, nobody wanted to take it and everybody was just waiting at 176. This is after I already sold my shares to the market. Then it was bid up at the closing back to 178. But the charts never lie, and I saw a symmetrical triangle on the 5 minute chart breaking down suggesting further decline to 169.50. RSI on the 5-minute chart looks pretty ugly too so I am just simply waiting for it to get oversold before getting back in.
I probably should not add up positions after they gap as I should be looking to "fade" the gap instead.
NIKL seems like it is poised for another correction, probably up to 20.30 before heading back up. 5-minute uptrend line is holding up so far.
A bearish RSI divergence appeared on the daily charts though. However, the divergence happened below the oversold levels so I'll be taking it as a normal correction for the mean time.
SCC just moved sideways today. A convincing break of 203 will point to advance/s in the short term. What I hate with the stock is its ROC is pointing up while its price is simply stagnating at the current levels.
I put up a position in LC today at the closing.
MA and MAB broke out of their consolidation channel. MA closed at its resistance which I believe will not be broken as the RSI reading is already on the overbought levels. The main problem of this kind of issues is they are highly illiquid meaning minimal public participation rendering technical analysis useless as the analysis is used to gauge/predict herd mentality.
It's going to be a different story if both starts to trend up again.
I hate to say this but I told you so. Somebody is shooting his foot in AGI - talking about the short term.
So there. Ending up the week with mining stocks and recovering costly mistakes by playing with the third liners.
**I was also became anxious of closing "weak" positions as my Uncle called me to buy BEL and LND. Somebody who doesn't know how to trade is telling me how to trade. How ironic. Guess what happened to both issues?
Although there were only few shares asked at 176.50, nobody wanted to take it and everybody was just waiting at 176. This is after I already sold my shares to the market. Then it was bid up at the closing back to 178. But the charts never lie, and I saw a symmetrical triangle on the 5 minute chart breaking down suggesting further decline to 169.50. RSI on the 5-minute chart looks pretty ugly too so I am just simply waiting for it to get oversold before getting back in.
I probably should not add up positions after they gap as I should be looking to "fade" the gap instead.
NIKL seems like it is poised for another correction, probably up to 20.30 before heading back up. 5-minute uptrend line is holding up so far.
A bearish RSI divergence appeared on the daily charts though. However, the divergence happened below the oversold levels so I'll be taking it as a normal correction for the mean time.
SCC just moved sideways today. A convincing break of 203 will point to advance/s in the short term. What I hate with the stock is its ROC is pointing up while its price is simply stagnating at the current levels.
I put up a position in LC today at the closing.
MA and MAB broke out of their consolidation channel. MA closed at its resistance which I believe will not be broken as the RSI reading is already on the overbought levels. The main problem of this kind of issues is they are highly illiquid meaning minimal public participation rendering technical analysis useless as the analysis is used to gauge/predict herd mentality.
It's going to be a different story if both starts to trend up again.
I hate to say this but I told you so. Somebody is shooting his foot in AGI - talking about the short term.
So there. Ending up the week with mining stocks and recovering costly mistakes by playing with the third liners.
**I was also became anxious of closing "weak" positions as my Uncle called me to buy BEL and LND. Somebody who doesn't know how to trade is telling me how to trade. How ironic. Guess what happened to both issues?
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Breaking free.
Well, what do you know. SMC shoot right up today because of the news of the offering will not be postponed and now priced at 200-250. Coincidentally, the gap today points to 211 as a target in the short term so I'll be keeping this one for a while. I also increased my position today.
I put up a position in SCC today at the closing.
NIKL showed alot of hot love today, peaking at 21.20 before closing at 20.90, also filling the intraday gap(5-minute)at 20.80. Data on my previous analysis of the chart is updated 'cept for the chart.
SOLD APC for a loss today.
SOLD AGI at 11.96. I was being stupid and greedy that it will push higher into mid-12s today while my analysis is just pointing at 11.98 so I sold a fluctuation lower.
ATR was very active in this stock today but I don't think I am willing to bet on them yet. There was also a huge cross by UBS. I am skeptical with this cross sale as I feel like cross sales at the top end of the range is distribution. Or maybe I am simply being paranoid.
Still holding ELI. What a sucky position. I want to break free.
The index might meet resistance at 4090 in the short term so that leaves us with 2% gain in one day(doubt it) or 1% gain in 2 days which would mean that the resistance will be met by Monday.
*Heavily monitoring the Index as I am only comfortable trading index issues.
***I just got the daily quotation report and have I read it right? Around 1B NFB?!
I put up a position in SCC today at the closing.
NIKL showed alot of hot love today, peaking at 21.20 before closing at 20.90, also filling the intraday gap(5-minute)at 20.80. Data on my previous analysis of the chart is updated 'cept for the chart.
SOLD APC for a loss today.
SOLD AGI at 11.96. I was being stupid and greedy that it will push higher into mid-12s today while my analysis is just pointing at 11.98 so I sold a fluctuation lower.
ATR was very active in this stock today but I don't think I am willing to bet on them yet. There was also a huge cross by UBS. I am skeptical with this cross sale as I feel like cross sales at the top end of the range is distribution. Or maybe I am simply being paranoid.
Still holding ELI. What a sucky position. I want to break free.
The index might meet resistance at 4090 in the short term so that leaves us with 2% gain in one day(doubt it) or 1% gain in 2 days which would mean that the resistance will be met by Monday.
*Heavily monitoring the Index as I am only comfortable trading index issues.
***I just got the daily quotation report and have I read it right? Around 1B NFB?!
Risk-Reward of closed trades
Updated on every closed trades
Closed trades:
1/05-1/06 CYBR 1:0.61
1/11-1/17 AGI 1:3.5
1/12-1/20 CYBR 1:0
1/20-1/27 AGI 1:3.5
1/17-1/27 APC 1:0
1/27-1/28 SMC 1:2
1/18-1/28 ELI 2:0
1/27-2/02 SCC 0.1:0
1/28-2/02 LC 1:0
2/01-2/02 MER 1:0.1
2/02-2/11 SMC 1:0
2/08-2/11 AGI 0.76:0
2/07-2/14 AGI 0.24:0
Open position/s:
1/12/11 NIKL 1:0
Closed trades:
1/05-1/06 CYBR 1:0.61
1/11-1/17 AGI 1:3.5
1/12-1/20 CYBR 1:0
1/20-1/27 AGI 1:3.5
1/17-1/27 APC 1:0
1/27-1/28 SMC 1:2
1/18-1/28 ELI 2:0
1/27-2/02 SCC 0.1:0
1/28-2/02 LC 1:0
2/01-2/02 MER 1:0.1
2/02-2/11 SMC 1:0
2/08-2/11 AGI 0.76:0
2/07-2/14 AGI 0.24:0
Open position/s:
1/12/11 NIKL 1:0
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Sucker market.
What a sucker market. Good thing the bombing yesterday didn't have much effect in today's trading.
I feel like somebody is going to shoot his own foot in AGI this week. He started shooting when locals started to buy it up to 11.80. I was looking at the 5 minute chart and the gap at 11.80 has been filled already. Next gap is at 11.94.
There was a tug of war in NIKL at 19.98. Looks like the bulls won - for now.
LND sure does look interesting.
LC is already at its uptrend support line. Expect to test 0.561 in the short term.
Changing trading strategy to properly suit up this kind of market.
I feel like somebody is going to shoot his own foot in AGI this week. He started shooting when locals started to buy it up to 11.80. I was looking at the 5 minute chart and the gap at 11.80 has been filled already. Next gap is at 11.94.
There was a tug of war in NIKL at 19.98. Looks like the bulls won - for now.
LND sure does look interesting.
LC is already at its uptrend support line. Expect to test 0.561 in the short term.
Changing trading strategy to properly suit up this kind of market.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Start of the emotional rally?
Looks like the market just started its recovery. It feels like an emotional rally after 5 days of heavy bleeding. I am expecting immediate resistance at 4200 levels.
Every position in my portfolio started to recover today as well. AGI is the only one acting retarded in this strong market. Annoying little bugger. Sell on rally. Formed another doji today. Possibly gathering enough strength to challenge 12 again.
APC is got bid up again today with 10M shares. Although it has closed unchanged(doji) today, with this market you'll never know so I'll be selling on rally and take some money off the basura table.
MEG is showed a strong recovery today. Too bad I didn't have the balls to catch some falling knives yesterday. It could go up to 2.40 and 2.60 at most in the short term.
JGS started its reversal today. Will buy on higher trough formation.
Bought SMC at the closing and looking to range trade. Will continue to hold if it breaks 180.
Every position in my portfolio started to recover today as well. AGI is the only one acting retarded in this strong market. Annoying little bugger. Sell on rally. Formed another doji today. Possibly gathering enough strength to challenge 12 again.
APC is got bid up again today with 10M shares. Although it has closed unchanged(doji) today, with this market you'll never know so I'll be selling on rally and take some money off the basura table.
MEG is showed a strong recovery today. Too bad I didn't have the balls to catch some falling knives yesterday. It could go up to 2.40 and 2.60 at most in the short term.
JGS started its reversal today. Will buy on higher trough formation.
Bought SMC at the closing and looking to range trade. Will continue to hold if it breaks 180.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Penetration of 3896: Spring or sign of impending doom?
The index is hanging by a thread already from the support at 3896 which was also penetrated in today's session. Luckily, the market slightly recover at the end of the session closing at 3902. From the looks of it, we just entered the oversold levels.
Note: Oversold levels can remain oversold on a downtrend and vice versa.
"Good news" from the overseas doesn't seem to have effect on our market. The drop is probably about inflation.
There were hardly notable gainers for today except LPZ gaining 4.4% MER with 3.42% and SMPH with 2.50%, completely bucking the trend. Major losers today are the previous week's third line gainers.
Well today I simply sat tight and watched the ticker as panic selling ensues at the opening, recovering slightly by mid session and closing lower by the closing.
AGI closed unchanged today, forming a doji on the lower end of its trading channel which I am assuming that the candlestick is bullish as it is also accompanied by low volume(selling pressure is easing out).
There were crosses at the closing by CLSA. ATR chumped on a huge volume at around starting at 11.12.
NIKL might continue to correct in the short term as suggested by decreasing ROC. A bounce from 50 RSI levels is probably a good entry.
The third line issues did what I was expecting them to do(to disappoint) so
I am just waiting for the stops to be hit. Or sell on rallies.
I made a trading plan on CPM, PAX, MEG, and T over the weekend. Everything are going withing expectations but I decided not to execute the plan and put on additional positions at risk until I get out of the weak positions on the third line issues.
Note: Oversold levels can remain oversold on a downtrend and vice versa.
"Good news" from the overseas doesn't seem to have effect on our market. The drop is probably about inflation.
There were hardly notable gainers for today except LPZ gaining 4.4% MER with 3.42% and SMPH with 2.50%, completely bucking the trend. Major losers today are the previous week's third line gainers.
Well today I simply sat tight and watched the ticker as panic selling ensues at the opening, recovering slightly by mid session and closing lower by the closing.
AGI closed unchanged today, forming a doji on the lower end of its trading channel which I am assuming that the candlestick is bullish as it is also accompanied by low volume(selling pressure is easing out).
There were crosses at the closing by CLSA. ATR chumped on a huge volume at around starting at 11.12.
NIKL might continue to correct in the short term as suggested by decreasing ROC. A bounce from 50 RSI levels is probably a good entry.
The third line issues did what I was expecting them to do(to disappoint) so
I am just waiting for the stops to be hit. Or sell on rallies.
I made a trading plan on CPM, PAX, MEG, and T over the weekend. Everything are going withing expectations but I decided not to execute the plan and put on additional positions at risk until I get out of the weak positions on the third line issues.