Thursday, October 21, 2010

Personal Disclosure

The market gained 57.21 points at 4249.17 today, 1.28% higher from yesterday's closing, continuing to move sideways with a support at 4146 and resistance at 4250. Momentum and rate of change are now both pointing up and confirming each other, suggesting that there would be further advance in the short term. If both indicators confirm each other on the weekly charts by next week, the resumption of the uptrend would probably come earlier than I expected.

Top gainers for today are MER, AEV, AP and SMPH while top losers are mostly comprised by third liners.

AGI opened strongly at 11 before it was sold down by MACQUARIE and CLSA, closing at 10.86. Momentum-Rate of change reading right on the money. Today's reading is relatively different as momentum has started to gain strength while rate of change declined further. Resumption of the uptrend would be late this week to early next week.

AP continued to advance further today, gaining 3.65% today closing at 26.95, made a gap up from yesterday's closing. If the gap doesn't get filled tomorrow, immediate target would be at 28.80. Momentum and rate of change are still both pointing up suggesting further advance in the short term and both are still less than half-way from their previous peaks.

MEG would seem to consolidate further in the short term as momentum and rate of change are diverging from each other. Pull backs to 2.40 should provide a good entry. Target would be around 2.90 once it starts to advance (symmetrical triangle target).

DMC did continued to consolidate today. However, despite the diverging momentum and rate of change, it appears to me that it is ready to resume its uptrend as the momentum is starting to gather strength. Buy if price crosses over the 10SMA.

Still confused with PX as the latest candlestick doesn't seen to be confirmed much.

Lost my bet on AT as it advanced further in today's session. It would be safe to assume that it would advance further until next week as both momentum and rate of change are pointing up.

On the other hand, looks like I am right on ORE. Both momentum and rate of change just started to point down (from the peak) suggesting further decline in the short term.

I'll be posting charts of my previous trades later.

AGI is still sitting on commission/tax loss for seven trading days.
AP is now up by 3.18% in 3 days.

*In a relatively choppy market, buy what's showing strength.

Midnight Express

Market closed relatively flat in yesterday's session, dropping 43 points intraday before closing at 4191.96, slightly lower by 0.71 points only. Gainers are mostly comprised by third liners with AT and AEV as an exception while major losers yesterday are third liners too.

Looking at the charts, the index seems to be half way through consolidation, just in time for the third quarter company reports.

AGI seems like its about to resume its uptrend already, but momentum and rate of change are still pointing down so it might still decline tomorrow. However, if it does starts to advance again, tomorrow would be the earliest and early next week would be the worst.

AP bounced off today from support closing by 1.56% higher yesterday. Momentum and rate of change are pointing up already suggesting advances in the short term. Latest candlestick formation also suggests the same. However, I am second guessing my decision as I might have simply saw what I wanted to saw on the charts. Verdict tomorrow!

Looks like I am wrong on assuming buying on breakout on MEG as it opened and closed lower yesterday forming a bearish candlestick. Should the proper play for breakouts is sell the first breakout and buy the second one? 2.40 level is looking to be the next support.

DMC seemed to consolidate further yesterday as it is also being pointed out by momentum diverging from rate of change.

PX recovered today and bounced off its next immediate support at 12.90. However, I am still doubting the candlestick that it formed yesterday as I am unsure if it is a on-neck pattern or a hammer pattern. Only one way to find out, watch its price movement until the end of the week!

I am betting on two to three days consolidation in AT following its advance yesterday, basing it from its previous behavior. Let's see how it'd go.

ORE is one interesting issue. Die hard fans of this stock are jumping out of joy yesterday as it was one of the most active stocks with 3.98% gain. However, is this a reason to be jumping for joy?



Technically speaking, momentum and rate of change are relatively the same with its previous peaks suggesting price decline in the short term. But knowing that it is a jockeyed stock, I hardly doubt that my analysis would be right.

Anyway, I would be try to post a chart of this one since I profited around 30% from ORE before within two weeks.

AGI is sitting on 2.5% net paper loss (commission/tax).
Break-even at 11.15.
Six trading days.

AP is sitting on 0.46% net loss.
Two trading days.


*Sell on the first breakout (of range) and then buy the second break out.