Asian markets closed higher today with an average of more than 1% gain, European markets are up by more than 1% too with the exception of FTSE, Futures are up by 0.48%.
Gold is up to 1414 while Oil has dropped again below 100, now trading at 97.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Speculating
People had been speculating that the sell down in several issues is due to the fact that they are shifting funds to AEV. Do you think that the big players are impulsive traders? Sounds pretty ridiculous.
Aboitiz!
The index has held above 3730 support and suggesting further advance/s in the short term. If the index meets resistance at 3900 levels, I would be expecting it to move sideways from that onwards, until it breaks a support/resistance.
Today's performance was led by AEV with a humongous gain of 17% for today, lifting
the index up by 29 points from -26 points with exceptionally high volume courtesy of AEV 3.8B turnover, followed by AP, AGI, MBT, TEL and SM.
Gainers is led by AEV +17.50%, followed by ORE +8.54%, PCOR +7.69%, GLO +7.58%,
SECB +6.44%, CEB +5.95%, CYBR 3.88% and AP +3.24%.
Losers is led by PX -9.84% after releasing the news of 100% increase in income for the 2010, ICT -8.08%, MWC -5.63%, JFC -5.49%, WEB -4.62% and VLL -4.11%.
TEL did completely the opposite of what I was expecting, losing 2.79% instead.
Totally missed out the action today in AEV. I was thinking whether to buy the 7k shares at 43 or not but I decided not to act on it. I would be very cautious to buy AEV now. A very long white candle with large volume could probably result into a blowout. MACD/RSI bearish divergences are both showing on the daily chart. Weekly chart is showing bearish RSI divergence too. With that being said, it is probably safer to trade it with a tight stop loss.
The volume in AEV today could mean a blowout or it could also mean a reversal already. Place your bets.
NIKL is still being bought up at the closing. A strong close at 22 or above would suggest that the demand for the issue is back.
Previous doji setups in CYBR is now up by 3.88%, MBT slightly higher, MPI slightly down, NIKL up by 3%, and SECB is now up by 5%. Removing the lagging MBT and MPI, issues with a doji setup produced profits after an average of 2 days, gaining an average of 3% during the holding period. 60% of winning rate with 3% average gain in 2 days after the doji setup, 40% chance of losing with minimal loss(commission and tax) within the same holding period. Profitable? Maybe the other positions would also turn out profitable after a few more days or so. Will monitor further to determine how long it would take to make them a winner/loser.
Today's performance was led by AEV with a humongous gain of 17% for today, lifting
the index up by 29 points from -26 points with exceptionally high volume courtesy of AEV 3.8B turnover, followed by AP, AGI, MBT, TEL and SM.
Gainers is led by AEV +17.50%, followed by ORE +8.54%, PCOR +7.69%, GLO +7.58%,
SECB +6.44%, CEB +5.95%, CYBR 3.88% and AP +3.24%.
Losers is led by PX -9.84% after releasing the news of 100% increase in income for the 2010, ICT -8.08%, MWC -5.63%, JFC -5.49%, WEB -4.62% and VLL -4.11%.
TEL did completely the opposite of what I was expecting, losing 2.79% instead.
Totally missed out the action today in AEV. I was thinking whether to buy the 7k shares at 43 or not but I decided not to act on it. I would be very cautious to buy AEV now. A very long white candle with large volume could probably result into a blowout. MACD/RSI bearish divergences are both showing on the daily chart. Weekly chart is showing bearish RSI divergence too. With that being said, it is probably safer to trade it with a tight stop loss.
The volume in AEV today could mean a blowout or it could also mean a reversal already. Place your bets.
NIKL is still being bought up at the closing. A strong close at 22 or above would suggest that the demand for the issue is back.
Previous doji setups in CYBR is now up by 3.88%, MBT slightly higher, MPI slightly down, NIKL up by 3%, and SECB is now up by 5%. Removing the lagging MBT and MPI, issues with a doji setup produced profits after an average of 2 days, gaining an average of 3% during the holding period. 60% of winning rate with 3% average gain in 2 days after the doji setup, 40% chance of losing with minimal loss(commission and tax) within the same holding period. Profitable? Maybe the other positions would also turn out profitable after a few more days or so. Will monitor further to determine how long it would take to make them a winner/loser.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Recovering slightly.
I was out the entire day so I didn't get to monitor the market today.
The market barely moved today, gaining only 6 points against other Asian markets with an average of 1.10% gain, on a relatively higher value turnover.
Looking at the weekly chart of the index, I believe we just found support at the current levels. If, however, we drop below at the current levels, I would not be surprised to see the market to lose another 10% or so in the short term at the very least(3360 levels).
Gainers are pretty much scattered today from third liners to blue chips, led by MER +7.50%, ELI +5.56%, LND +4.97%, EEI +3.98%, NIKL +3.47, MWIDE -continued to buck the general market trend- +3.14%, PX +2.97% and RFM +2.50%.
Losers are led by the week's gainers MA -5.71%, MAB -2.86% and LC -3.33%. Majority of the losers are third liners with CMT -5.97%, VLL -3.23%, and SMPH -2.86% coming from the second and first liners.
I totally missed TEL's RSI reading yesterday as I am using a very short term settings for it. It's daily RSI reading dropped to 7.16, reaching its lowest reading in 11 years! If you are after it's dividend, it was at its safest(and cheapest too) level yesterday! My gulay. Weekly RSI reading suggest that it could still go head down a little further as its weekly lowest RSI reading is at 20.25, a mere 10 RSI points difference. But with the daily candlestick pattern is suggesting a sharp reversal already. I am just making a wild guess but I think it could gain around 10% by next week. This is a very wild prediction ha!
My hypothetical short coverings on AP and MER produced pretty good returns had I actually reversed position and went long in actual trading. That means my trading ideas do work!
NIKL finally recovered after the sell down during the week. Nickel price has decline in the world market and I am assuming that it could move sideways for the meantime. With that in mind, I would probably range trade for the mean time as I am now trying to avoid being stuck as much as possible.
Revisiting the doji setups, CYBR is now breakeven from entry point with 1.12 as a target, MBT is slightly down, MPI is unchanged but a strong close above 3.55 would suggest a further short term upswing, NIKL now up by 3% from entry while SECB is still down from entry point after opening higher right at the gap down resistance.
If you are observant enough you will see that the issues that closed higher than yesterday have a similar characteristic while the losing positions also have the common characteristic. So therefore, trading dojis with the characteristic of the winners will be traded and the losers will be scratched off the board.
Western markets are up by more than 1% tonight. Gold is still trading above 1400(1405) while Oil(WTI) has dropped below 100 again.
The market barely moved today, gaining only 6 points against other Asian markets with an average of 1.10% gain, on a relatively higher value turnover.
Looking at the weekly chart of the index, I believe we just found support at the current levels. If, however, we drop below at the current levels, I would not be surprised to see the market to lose another 10% or so in the short term at the very least(3360 levels).
Gainers are pretty much scattered today from third liners to blue chips, led by MER +7.50%, ELI +5.56%, LND +4.97%, EEI +3.98%, NIKL +3.47, MWIDE -continued to buck the general market trend- +3.14%, PX +2.97% and RFM +2.50%.
Losers are led by the week's gainers MA -5.71%, MAB -2.86% and LC -3.33%. Majority of the losers are third liners with CMT -5.97%, VLL -3.23%, and SMPH -2.86% coming from the second and first liners.
I totally missed TEL's RSI reading yesterday as I am using a very short term settings for it. It's daily RSI reading dropped to 7.16, reaching its lowest reading in 11 years! If you are after it's dividend, it was at its safest(and cheapest too) level yesterday! My gulay. Weekly RSI reading suggest that it could still go head down a little further as its weekly lowest RSI reading is at 20.25, a mere 10 RSI points difference. But with the daily candlestick pattern is suggesting a sharp reversal already. I am just making a wild guess but I think it could gain around 10% by next week. This is a very wild prediction ha!
My hypothetical short coverings on AP and MER produced pretty good returns had I actually reversed position and went long in actual trading. That means my trading ideas do work!
NIKL finally recovered after the sell down during the week. Nickel price has decline in the world market and I am assuming that it could move sideways for the meantime. With that in mind, I would probably range trade for the mean time as I am now trying to avoid being stuck as much as possible.
Revisiting the doji setups, CYBR is now breakeven from entry point with 1.12 as a target, MBT is slightly down, MPI is unchanged but a strong close above 3.55 would suggest a further short term upswing, NIKL now up by 3% from entry while SECB is still down from entry point after opening higher right at the gap down resistance.
If you are observant enough you will see that the issues that closed higher than yesterday have a similar characteristic while the losing positions also have the common characteristic. So therefore, trading dojis with the characteristic of the winners will be traded and the losers will be scratched off the board.
Western markets are up by more than 1% tonight. Gold is still trading above 1400(1405) while Oil(WTI) has dropped below 100 again.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
What do you make out of this?
Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3
Chart 4
What the title says, what do you make out of this charts? Up? Down? Sideways? Reversal?
I removed the price and name of the chart to lessen the bias in analyzing the issues.
Black candles indicate advances and white candles indicated declines.
Feed backs are more than welcome. Thanks in advance!
Chart 2
Chart 3
Chart 4
What the title says, what do you make out of this charts? Up? Down? Sideways? Reversal?
I removed the price and name of the chart to lessen the bias in analyzing the issues.
Black candles indicate advances and white candles indicated declines.
Feed backs are more than welcome. Thanks in advance!
Nothing catchy
The market lost another 26 points today after recovering strongly yesterday, losing a total of 52 points in the past two days after the turmoil in Libya erupted. Value turnover has also dropped below the average of this week so there's probably no more sellers now as the index is now resting at the previous low. The market didn't get into the green today as I was expecting but the decline is within expected range.
Gainers for today is led by MA +9.38% after the rumors of the done-deal with MVP, followed by OPM and OV with +7.69% and 7.14% gains respectively due to the price surge of crude oil -breaking past 100 last night; and AEV gaining 3.71% for today and I have no idea why.
Losers are mostly composed of third liners again, with GLO being the heaviest of them all, losing 4.45% and the continuous selling in TEL caused it to decline further by 1.79%. I really believed that TEL was holding up at the 2300 levels the other day!
CYBR is now at its major support with doji losing 2%, MBT succumbed to profit taking after gaining around +2% during the day, MPI hardly changed, NIKL was bought up again at the closing(I wonder how long could ASIASEC keep this up) while SECB declined further by 1%.
1 unchanged, 1 winner and 2 loser with a net of 0.52% loss, not counting the unchanged. I think that the pattern has a low winning probability on the next day.
Let's see how will the patterns work out to the positive territory next week.
Crude oil(WTIC) broke past 100 last night and now trading at 98.90 while Gold is now above 1400 levels, trading at 1411.
Gainers for today is led by MA +9.38% after the rumors of the done-deal with MVP, followed by OPM and OV with +7.69% and 7.14% gains respectively due to the price surge of crude oil -breaking past 100 last night; and AEV gaining 3.71% for today and I have no idea why.
Losers are mostly composed of third liners again, with GLO being the heaviest of them all, losing 4.45% and the continuous selling in TEL caused it to decline further by 1.79%. I really believed that TEL was holding up at the 2300 levels the other day!
CYBR is now at its major support with doji losing 2%, MBT succumbed to profit taking after gaining around +2% during the day, MPI hardly changed, NIKL was bought up again at the closing(I wonder how long could ASIASEC keep this up) while SECB declined further by 1%.
1 unchanged, 1 winner and 2 loser with a net of 0.52% loss, not counting the unchanged. I think that the pattern has a low winning probability on the next day.
Let's see how will the patterns work out to the positive territory next week.
Crude oil(WTIC) broke past 100 last night and now trading at 98.90 while Gold is now above 1400 levels, trading at 1411.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
And more panic.
We probably saw panic in its truest form today as the market opened lower(gap down) dropping to a whopping 70 points on the earlier part of the session before recovering 43 points on the later part, closing lower by 27 points only from yesterday. The Index held above the previous low at 3738. Taking the account of today's candlestick at the support, we might see the green side of the pasture tomorrow.
I was already panicking when I saw NIKL sold down immediately to 19.82 level. I wanted to close the position already! But then I was telling myself that if I sell it at that level(19.82) I would be selling it at a major support and that is not the right way to do it.
I really like seeing doji stars and small black candles at the bottom of a downtrend as they provide less riskier entries for short term trades and they usually provide at least a 5% gain for the trade.
CYBR, MBT, MPI, NIKL, and SECB forming possible bullish reversal patterns(short term) if they move up tomorrow. Hoping for a recovery tomorrow as majority of the issues are pretty much oversold already.
As I've written before, I am in the quest of catching the bigger fish. It seems like the big fish is trying to bite my arm off.
I am still hoping that majority has sold(cut their losses) their positions already.
ASIASEC is RSA/GSIS/SSS/Govt institutions broker pala.
I was already panicking when I saw NIKL sold down immediately to 19.82 level. I wanted to close the position already! But then I was telling myself that if I sell it at that level(19.82) I would be selling it at a major support and that is not the right way to do it.
I really like seeing doji stars and small black candles at the bottom of a downtrend as they provide less riskier entries for short term trades and they usually provide at least a 5% gain for the trade.
CYBR, MBT, MPI, NIKL, and SECB forming possible bullish reversal patterns(short term) if they move up tomorrow. Hoping for a recovery tomorrow as majority of the issues are pretty much oversold already.
As I've written before, I am in the quest of catching the bigger fish. It seems like the big fish is trying to bite my arm off.
I am still hoping that majority has sold(cut their losses) their positions already.
ASIASEC is RSA/GSIS/SSS/Govt institutions broker pala.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Panic at the disco.
The market reacted to the turmoil in Middle East(Libya), causing the index to lose 53.37 points, lower by 1.39% with relatively lower turnover volume. No buyers perhaps? The index held better than its Asian counterparts who are now losing a little less than 2% on the average.
The gainers today with considerable volume are ANI - which is now resting at its 50EMA - gained another 5.96% today, probably just trying to catch more suckers in, MA/B with 3.33/3.44% gains respectively, LC with 1.20% - one fluctuation, and MWIDE with 1.60%.
Losers are pretty lot today, led by MEGW1 -7.21%, DFNN -5.98%, PCOR -5.30%,
MEG -4.27%, LND -3.70%, RLC -3.69% - probably because of its 1:2 rights offering at P10 coupled by the bearish market condition - and CYBR -3.67%.
TEL met another wave of selling losing 0.70%, SCC and MBT both losing 2.98%, AP -1.8%, AEV -2.33%. Other non-index issue loser includes NIKL -3.06%.
The only index gainer today is AC gaining 0.89% - gave me a buy signal at 341.
AP candlestick pattern looks profitable. I think today's pattern has a high probability of turning into a winner. AEV has yet to give a buy signal.
RFM looks exactly the opposite of AP so buy signal will probably be generated late this week to early next week.
NIKL got pretty much sold down at the opening, barely recovering at the closing. ASIASEC also started to shoot his own foot today. ASIASEC tried to push the issue up last Feb 16/17 buying 500k shares at the close. Today they crossed 500k shares. Did the guy got out already?
I could be mistaken that R&L is shorting the stock today as there were no short covering at the close. But if they are just purely profit-taking, why take profits at the lower end of the price range? Price difference from 23 is too wide for a stop. Hmmm..
I hope everyone who wanted to sell has already sold everything they have already.
Covered my hypothetical short positions in MER and AP today.
MER lost 2.35% and AP just lost on commission and taxes. Reverse positions tomorrow?
*I was actually scanning for possible trades last night. I was looking for long black candlesticks on the lower end of trading ranges for possible short term reversal plays and I was a little frustrated not to find any. It never occurred to me that I would see alot of them today. Ironically, I had it coming lol. Nothing is making sense in this market anymore suxlol
The gainers today with considerable volume are ANI - which is now resting at its 50EMA - gained another 5.96% today, probably just trying to catch more suckers in, MA/B with 3.33/3.44% gains respectively, LC with 1.20% - one fluctuation, and MWIDE with 1.60%.
Losers are pretty lot today, led by MEGW1 -7.21%, DFNN -5.98%, PCOR -5.30%,
MEG -4.27%, LND -3.70%, RLC -3.69% - probably because of its 1:2 rights offering at P10 coupled by the bearish market condition - and CYBR -3.67%.
TEL met another wave of selling losing 0.70%, SCC and MBT both losing 2.98%, AP -1.8%, AEV -2.33%. Other non-index issue loser includes NIKL -3.06%.
The only index gainer today is AC gaining 0.89% - gave me a buy signal at 341.
AP candlestick pattern looks profitable. I think today's pattern has a high probability of turning into a winner. AEV has yet to give a buy signal.
RFM looks exactly the opposite of AP so buy signal will probably be generated late this week to early next week.
NIKL got pretty much sold down at the opening, barely recovering at the closing. ASIASEC also started to shoot his own foot today. ASIASEC tried to push the issue up last Feb 16/17 buying 500k shares at the close. Today they crossed 500k shares. Did the guy got out already?
I could be mistaken that R&L is shorting the stock today as there were no short covering at the close. But if they are just purely profit-taking, why take profits at the lower end of the price range? Price difference from 23 is too wide for a stop. Hmmm..
I hope everyone who wanted to sell has already sold everything they have already.
Covered my hypothetical short positions in MER and AP today.
MER lost 2.35% and AP just lost on commission and taxes. Reverse positions tomorrow?
*I was actually scanning for possible trades last night. I was looking for long black candlesticks on the lower end of trading ranges for possible short term reversal plays and I was a little frustrated not to find any. It never occurred to me that I would see alot of them today. Ironically, I had it coming lol. Nothing is making sense in this market anymore suxlol
European markets are down big time(more than 1%) amidst the turmoil in the Middle East (Libya).
Oil is now back to 90.25 levels gaining +4.70% and GOLD now 1405 up by 1.25%, 25 points away from its all time high of 1430 as of this writing.
I think I need gold's historical data so I can plot them on local gold producing issues if they are correlated or not.
Our market has been totally random with no correlation with DOW at all now. Up DOW, PSE down, down DOW, PSE down. Jezuz. /wrist
Oil is now back to 90.25 levels gaining +4.70% and GOLD now 1405 up by 1.25%, 25 points away from its all time high of 1430 as of this writing.
I think I need gold's historical data so I can plot them on local gold producing issues if they are correlated or not.
Our market has been totally random with no correlation with DOW at all now. Up DOW, PSE down, down DOW, PSE down. Jezuz. /wrist
Monday, February 21, 2011
Uninteresting day
The market lost 13.80 points today on a lower value turnover, closing lower at 3837.
It is still a scattered market, with second liners leading the gainers with few third liners, led ANI +11.37%, DFNN +7.17%, RFM +4.97%, MWIDE +3.95%, PA +2.99%, LIHC +2.30%, and FOOD +2.25%.
Losers are also scattered among all sectors, led by LND -3.57%, NIKL -2.97%, ORE -2.86%, AP -2.83%, CMT -2.78%, and PCOR -2.58%. Other index heavyweights today are AEV, MEG, DMC, TEL, MBT, and MER, averaging 1% or so loss today.
MWIDE seems to be performing well in the current market condition after its IPO last Friday as it closed higher at 8.15 today.
ASIASEC gave away a pretty good amount of money today in MER as they sold it down to 220 before recovering right away, closing at 232. That's pretty nice profit for MER bidders. 5.45% gain in a day is not bad by simply waiting.
AEV and RFM looks attractive now.
NIKL could possibly drop another 2% or so before it starts heading back up. Waiting for nickel prices to turn back up.
*Ninja edit: Nickel just broke past its previous high of 28700 today(as posted on Bloomberg) and now trading at 29400, 0.9% higher from the previous session at 28250 so I really don't understand today's decline in NIKL.
Current market condition is probably not the right time to follow trend. Will swing trading produce better profits at current market situation?
It is still a scattered market, with second liners leading the gainers with few third liners, led ANI +11.37%, DFNN +7.17%, RFM +4.97%, MWIDE +3.95%, PA +2.99%, LIHC +2.30%, and FOOD +2.25%.
Losers are also scattered among all sectors, led by LND -3.57%, NIKL -2.97%, ORE -2.86%, AP -2.83%, CMT -2.78%, and PCOR -2.58%. Other index heavyweights today are AEV, MEG, DMC, TEL, MBT, and MER, averaging 1% or so loss today.
MWIDE seems to be performing well in the current market condition after its IPO last Friday as it closed higher at 8.15 today.
ASIASEC gave away a pretty good amount of money today in MER as they sold it down to 220 before recovering right away, closing at 232. That's pretty nice profit for MER bidders. 5.45% gain in a day is not bad by simply waiting.
AEV and RFM looks attractive now.
NIKL could possibly drop another 2% or so before it starts heading back up. Waiting for nickel prices to turn back up.
*Ninja edit: Nickel just broke past its previous high of 28700 today(as posted on Bloomberg) and now trading at 29400, 0.9% higher from the previous session at 28250 so I really don't understand today's decline in NIKL.
Current market condition is probably not the right time to follow trend. Will swing trading produce better profits at current market situation?
Gold (EOD)
Looks like gold is poised to move up again. Pullbacks to the 50EMA is a buy.
No price projections for gold except the recent high of 1430 which provides a possible upside of 3.10% from the previous close.
MACD is forming lower highs and lower lows. Has gold already ran its course already?
No idea, just trying my TA on GOLD.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
I reread Ben Graham's book again this afternoon and I found astoundingly similar principles with trend following on profitability and success, that is keeping everything simple.
It seems that I am on the right track since I have been trying to simplify my trading system, Simply put, I am trying to switch to a trend following system.
I still need to keep the system I am using now based on short term tech analysis though to cover up monthly expenses.
My money management still needs further refinement though.
I still feel that I am still missing something but that's what I can think of right now.
It seems that I am on the right track since I have been trying to simplify my trading system, Simply put, I am trying to switch to a trend following system.
I still need to keep the system I am using now based on short term tech analysis though to cover up monthly expenses.
My money management still needs further refinement though.
I still feel that I am still missing something but that's what I can think of right now.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Friday, February 18, 2011
Time to test the grounds.
The market suffered again its morning sickness again, gaining 25 points on the opening before losing ground to profit takers and AFP pulling funds(kidding), closing lower by 15 points at 3851. If the recent low at 3723 holds, the index might consolidate(better) for a while before reversing. If it does not, then downtrend is still not over.
Again, as one could expect during declines, leading gainers for today are mostly speculative third liners, led by PRC +16.36%, OPM +7.69, ABA +4.60%, MARC +4.50%, SINO +4.35% and T +4.10%.
The only blue chip with relative value turnover is MER, gaining 3.03% for today.
Index losers is led by AP -2.08%, BDO -1.54%, DMC -1.16% AC -0.89%, AGI-0.68%, and MBT-0.50%.
There was also a huge cross in HP at 2.50. Can this cross jumpstart price action in short term?
RFM also continued its gains from yesterday, gaining another 3.87% on relatively lower volume from yesterday. If it reaches 1.65, it might start coming back to life again. It has relatively high discount from its fair value and weekly chart looks relatively bullish.
AEV is now back to uptrend and just started its correction today after meeting its old resistance at 40. Buy on correction and/or buy on breakout. Weekly chart looks pretty good.
I can't say the same for AP though. 2.35% gain over the week vs AEV 5.41% in the same week. I also feel like its weekly chart still looks weak mainly because of its bearish candlestick pattern(falling method - continuation pattern). Still bearish with AP so I'm still keeping the hypothetical short position open.
NIKL declined by 1.72% today after being bought up by ASIASEC for the past 2 days. I think someone in BDO noticed this so I believe he's the one who put up the 1M shares or so on the closing(possibly challenging ASIASEC to buy it up again). Weekly chart is up but is now showing slight hesitation to move up.
MER looks like a buy on pull back if it reaches 250-266 before it starts to retrace. Will cover the hypothetical shorts if it does.
So there, those are basically the issues I am currently observing.
TEL looks ready for a reversal already as RSI has already flattened out. Daily RSI is also at the lowest level in 10 years. However, Weekly RSI has yet to drop below mixing the signals. Despite of the mixed signals, I am inclined to believe that its more biased towards moving up so risk is now minimal. Shares are now cheaper for dividend play plus a potential upside of 13% if it does reverse. However, TEL moves relatively slow so it is not recommended for trading.
New hypothetical position in JFC.
Again, as one could expect during declines, leading gainers for today are mostly speculative third liners, led by PRC +16.36%, OPM +7.69, ABA +4.60%, MARC +4.50%, SINO +4.35% and T +4.10%.
The only blue chip with relative value turnover is MER, gaining 3.03% for today.
Index losers is led by AP -2.08%, BDO -1.54%, DMC -1.16% AC -0.89%, AGI-0.68%, and MBT-0.50%.
There was also a huge cross in HP at 2.50. Can this cross jumpstart price action in short term?
RFM also continued its gains from yesterday, gaining another 3.87% on relatively lower volume from yesterday. If it reaches 1.65, it might start coming back to life again. It has relatively high discount from its fair value and weekly chart looks relatively bullish.
AEV is now back to uptrend and just started its correction today after meeting its old resistance at 40. Buy on correction and/or buy on breakout. Weekly chart looks pretty good.
I can't say the same for AP though. 2.35% gain over the week vs AEV 5.41% in the same week. I also feel like its weekly chart still looks weak mainly because of its bearish candlestick pattern(falling method - continuation pattern). Still bearish with AP so I'm still keeping the hypothetical short position open.
NIKL declined by 1.72% today after being bought up by ASIASEC for the past 2 days. I think someone in BDO noticed this so I believe he's the one who put up the 1M shares or so on the closing(possibly challenging ASIASEC to buy it up again). Weekly chart is up but is now showing slight hesitation to move up.
MER looks like a buy on pull back if it reaches 250-266 before it starts to retrace. Will cover the hypothetical shorts if it does.
So there, those are basically the issues I am currently observing.
TEL looks ready for a reversal already as RSI has already flattened out. Daily RSI is also at the lowest level in 10 years. However, Weekly RSI has yet to drop below mixing the signals. Despite of the mixed signals, I am inclined to believe that its more biased towards moving up so risk is now minimal. Shares are now cheaper for dividend play plus a potential upside of 13% if it does reverse. However, TEL moves relatively slow so it is not recommended for trading.
New hypothetical position in JFC.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Time for celebration?
The market gained 54 points today, closing higher by 1.43% on a slightly lower turnover value. Pretty much exciting day for the blues today.
The rally is led by ALI +4.09%, BPI +4%, JFC +3.90%, DMC +3.61%, with MBT +1.95%, AGI +1.89%, AEV +1.83%, and AP 1.58% as honorable mentions. Other gainers with considerable turnover are MAB +6.90% and RFM +6.16%.
Today's top losers are the third liners APM -5.56% and ELI -3.95% while GLO is the heaviest losing 2.99% today.
Did I see it right? Macquarie have been buying RFM heavily at the closing. ATR is also seems pretty heavy with this issue for this month. Something must be cooking. Value turnover seems anemic though.
The Aboitiz issues seem to have come back to life again. My trend buy signal yesterday on AEV seems to be valid(and working too) while AP has yet to generate any signal.
NIKL seems to be being manipulated by ASIASEC. It was a boring day -lowest turnover if only not from the cross of Deutsche - and it was already doing at 21.85 at the closing(pre-open/pre-close). When I checked it back, it was back to 22.30 with ASIASEC as the culprit. I feel like he could have just bid lower at 21.85 too. Intra-invest has been missing on the board and has stopped his selling this past few days. I wonder what has gotten into him.
Still trending with SCC.
Hypothetical short position in MER is down by 5.19%. Will cover once it retrace to 214-220 levels.
Hypothetical short position in AP is down by 6%. Will cover at 27.75-28.
The rally is led by ALI +4.09%, BPI +4%, JFC +3.90%, DMC +3.61%, with MBT +1.95%, AGI +1.89%, AEV +1.83%, and AP 1.58% as honorable mentions. Other gainers with considerable turnover are MAB +6.90% and RFM +6.16%.
Today's top losers are the third liners APM -5.56% and ELI -3.95% while GLO is the heaviest losing 2.99% today.
Did I see it right? Macquarie have been buying RFM heavily at the closing. ATR is also seems pretty heavy with this issue for this month. Something must be cooking. Value turnover seems anemic though.
The Aboitiz issues seem to have come back to life again. My trend buy signal yesterday on AEV seems to be valid(and working too) while AP has yet to generate any signal.
NIKL seems to be being manipulated by ASIASEC. It was a boring day -lowest turnover if only not from the cross of Deutsche - and it was already doing at 21.85 at the closing(pre-open/pre-close). When I checked it back, it was back to 22.30 with ASIASEC as the culprit. I feel like he could have just bid lower at 21.85 too. Intra-invest has been missing on the board and has stopped his selling this past few days. I wonder what has gotten into him.
Still trending with SCC.
Hypothetical short position in MER is down by 5.19%. Will cover once it retrace to 214-220 levels.
Hypothetical short position in AP is down by 6%. Will cover at 27.75-28.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
Too bad that I could only get historical data starting from January 1.
Volume on the chart is the volume of supply for that day (in tonnes).
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Nickel: Opening stocks(tonne) and Price - Updated daily
Opening stock(tonne) and Price:
Date-opening stock-price:
Since the peak of supply last January at 137766, supply has started to decline up to date. Supply has dropped by 5% since then, driving the price of nickel higher by 11.20%.
Supply and demand baby, Econ1. My college prof would be proud! :)
If I get lucky, I could probably make a line graph with this data in Metastock.
It's a shame though because I could only access data from the beginning of the year.
Filed under NIKL.
Date-opening stock-price:
FEBRUARY 2011
18
17 129924 28295.00
16 130248 28550.00
15 130248 28895.00
14 130422 28670.00
11 131112 27830.00
10 131898 28005.00
09 132330 28255.00
08 132936 27850.00
07 132828 28700.00
04 132798 28070.00
03 133500 27775.00
02 134172 27710.00
01 134442 27650.00
JANUARY 2011
31 134040 27070.00
28 134298 26820.00
27 135186 26795.00
26 134862 26150.00
25 134958 25750.00
24 135174 26265.00
21 130248 25850.00
20 137124 25645.00
19 137238 26190.00
18 137352 26355.00
17 137766 25985.00
14 136302 25460.00
13 136662 25720.00
12 135096 25060.00
11 135864 24590.00
10 136806 24045.00
07 136896 24340.00
06 137040 24870.00
05 136860 24640.00
04 136890 25170.00
Monthly Average: 25638.50
Since the peak of supply last January at 137766, supply has started to decline up to date. Supply has dropped by 5% since then, driving the price of nickel higher by 11.20%.
Supply and demand baby, Econ1. My college prof would be proud! :)
If I get lucky, I could probably make a line graph with this data in Metastock.
It's a shame though because I could only access data from the beginning of the year.
Filed under NIKL.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
I probably should also monitor the supply of nickel stock daily to monitor whether the supply is increasing/decreasing. Had to dig a little deeper to find the info though. Daily price update first:
CASH BUYER 28,895.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,900.00
CASH BUYER 28,895.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,900.00
Philippine Stock Exchange (PCOMP)
Looks like that the Index is poised to resume its downtrend in the short term.
Major resistance at 4000.
Aboitiz Power Corporation (AP)
It looks like that the bearish symmetrical triangle pattern has been invalidated as prices have already moved out of the apex of the triangle.
Pullbacks after testing 29.80 in the short term would probably provide a good window for entry.
Rally!
The index gained 21 points in today's session with relatively lower volume if we don't count the huge cross - again - in AEV. I think that the rally today is just another tech bounce and it would pretty much safer to expect the market to continue to drop in the short term.
Gains of FLI +4.76%, MER, +3.18%, AP +2.52%, PCOR +2.27%, AEV +1.73%, and SM +1.30% pushed the index higher today while PLDT -0.35%, and MBT -0.84% held up their grounds with relatively smaller losses in comparison to yesterday.
Other gainers with significant turnover are BEL +4.45% and DFNN +3.56%. Other losers with significant turnover today are led by JAP's ORE -5.34%, NI -4.63%, LC -2.27% and SECB -2.24% after they released their income report for the whole 2010.
Macquarie got rewarded after pushing PCOR yesterday.
It seems like BEL has formed a short term reversal pattern today with a target of 5.40 to 5.50 at most.
AEV broke above 38.50 - intraday high 38.70 - but unable to sustain its rally, closing lower from intraday high at 38.30. It would seem that it has already broke out of its sideways-to-down trend today but I am still skeptical about the break out because most of the volume came from the huge cross so I think it would be better to wait at the gap instead of chasing and buying it higher. Or I could just buy when it breaks 40.
It was a boring day for NIKL because the market was up. 5-minute chart was flat the entire time until it was bought up by ASIASEC at the closing. Today also have the lowest volume turnover in the current trend. Calm before the storm or sign of impending reversal? Closing bid looks delicious though.
Hypothetical short positions in AP is down by 4.50% and MER is down by 3.50%.
Gains of FLI +4.76%, MER, +3.18%, AP +2.52%, PCOR +2.27%, AEV +1.73%, and SM +1.30% pushed the index higher today while PLDT -0.35%, and MBT -0.84% held up their grounds with relatively smaller losses in comparison to yesterday.
Other gainers with significant turnover are BEL +4.45% and DFNN +3.56%. Other losers with significant turnover today are led by JAP's ORE -5.34%, NI -4.63%, LC -2.27% and SECB -2.24% after they released their income report for the whole 2010.
Macquarie got rewarded after pushing PCOR yesterday.
It seems like BEL has formed a short term reversal pattern today with a target of 5.40 to 5.50 at most.
AEV broke above 38.50 - intraday high 38.70 - but unable to sustain its rally, closing lower from intraday high at 38.30. It would seem that it has already broke out of its sideways-to-down trend today but I am still skeptical about the break out because most of the volume came from the huge cross so I think it would be better to wait at the gap instead of chasing and buying it higher. Or I could just buy when it breaks 40.
It was a boring day for NIKL because the market was up. 5-minute chart was flat the entire time until it was bought up by ASIASEC at the closing. Today also have the lowest volume turnover in the current trend. Calm before the storm or sign of impending reversal? Closing bid looks delicious though.
Hypothetical short positions in AP is down by 4.50% and MER is down by 3.50%.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
Inverted head and shoulder pattern: 28500 (done - 28700)
Bullish flag/pennant: 31700 (rough estimate - $14.37/lb)
Possible upside at current price: 13.90%
Short to medium crazy nickel forecast: $16/lb
Nickel chart is filed under Nickel Asia(NIKL) chart.
CASH BUYER 28,670.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,680.00
Looking way back into the bigger picture:
Just broke out of the bigger inverted head and shoulder. Judge it for yourself.
It seems to me that the demand for the metal is growing though.
Holding up?
The market closed slightly lower today by 5.95 points on a relatively average turnover that we have without the huge cross sales daily. And it would pretty much safer to assume that the current downtrend is going to last until the actual reversal. Falling method candlestick pattern has also formed on the daily charts suggesting the continuation of further downtrend.
The rally on Hang Seng Index barely had any effect on Asian markets.
The decline today is led by TEL -2.20% breaking heavily from its support, PNB -3.26%, AC -1.12%, ALI -0.68%, and MER -0.45%.
Cushioning the fall are PCOR +7.16%, ICT +3.70%, MEG +2.49%, MBT +2.32%, SM +1.55%, and AGI +1.23%. Without the gains from these issues, the index would have fallen hard today.
Other losing issues with significant turnover value includes LND -4.46%, CYBR - which I thought had a valid breakout buy signal yesterday, fell 3.48%, JAP stocks ORE and SLI, losing 3.10% and 3.08% respectively.
Trades are pretty much scattered everywhere. Macquarie have been buying PCOR by mid session. Looking at the charts, it seems to be poised to move sideways with support at 13.50 and resistance at 16.
I think it was UBS who was trying to push AEV up(barely) with 0.80% gain today. Chart-wise, one more "up day" but will not exceed 38.50 before heading back and fill the gap at 33.65.
There seems to be a bullish pattern forming on the daily chart of NIKL but I could be biased as I have a position in the stock. All positions are now up though. One thing I can say though, spot price for nickel is up by 3%.
*Price of nickel in LME lags by a day.
Will post my "technical analysis" on nickel.
How can I be hungry and sleepy at the same time?
The rally on Hang Seng Index barely had any effect on Asian markets.
The decline today is led by TEL -2.20% breaking heavily from its support, PNB -3.26%, AC -1.12%, ALI -0.68%, and MER -0.45%.
Cushioning the fall are PCOR +7.16%, ICT +3.70%, MEG +2.49%, MBT +2.32%, SM +1.55%, and AGI +1.23%. Without the gains from these issues, the index would have fallen hard today.
Other losing issues with significant turnover value includes LND -4.46%, CYBR - which I thought had a valid breakout buy signal yesterday, fell 3.48%, JAP stocks ORE and SLI, losing 3.10% and 3.08% respectively.
Trades are pretty much scattered everywhere. Macquarie have been buying PCOR by mid session. Looking at the charts, it seems to be poised to move sideways with support at 13.50 and resistance at 16.
I think it was UBS who was trying to push AEV up(barely) with 0.80% gain today. Chart-wise, one more "up day" but will not exceed 38.50 before heading back and fill the gap at 33.65.
There seems to be a bullish pattern forming on the daily chart of NIKL but I could be biased as I have a position in the stock. All positions are now up though. One thing I can say though, spot price for nickel is up by 3%.
*Price of nickel in LME lags by a day.
Will post my "technical analysis" on nickel.
How can I be hungry and sleepy at the same time?
Monday, February 14, 2011
Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP)
Accelerated downtrend.
Signs of reversal:
1. Formation of higher peak and trough.
2. Steep decline on heavy volume.
The steep decline on heavy volume would be the "blast to put the fire out". A parabolic drop so to speak - the sign of capitulation.
Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV)
Waiting and watching it test the strength of the possible reversal. Reversal in the works.
Alliance Global Corporation (AGI)
It would be much safer to assume that it will simply range trade til kingdom come, unless it does a convincing breakout - strong candlestick pattern and heavy volume.
Breakdown to the downside - support at 10.90 - will prompt a sell signal.
Breakup to the upside - resistance at 13 - will prompt a buy signal.
To lessen the risk of the trade, take profits/take cover after the breakout and buy back at the breakout point to test the strength of the trend.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
CASH BUYER 27,830.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 27,835.00
Down by 1.5% from last Thursday.
From the beginning of the year(01/01/11 - $12.62/lb), Nickel prices has risen by 10.50% up to date(02/14/11 - $12.62/lb) with a high of $13/lb last February 8.
Sell on rally?
The market rebounded in today's session with 47.58 points, 1.27% higher from Friday's session along with other Asian markets, with Hang Seng leading the rally with +1.30%.
However, value turnover is relatively light in today's rally.
Leading the rally for today are ALI +4.29%, MBT +2.38% and DMC +1.53% while the selling of TEL continued further today, losing another 0.34% and now resting at its support at 2360.
Other gainers with significant turnover are CYBR +11.65% and LIHC +4.71%.
I closed my position in AGI for a total of -1% of equity. The weak opening prompted me to sell it, plus the distribution of several foreign brokers specially Deutsche and Macquarie for over a week now felt more obvious than before, with COL only supporting the stock, I felt I was on the wrong side of the trade, thus the closing of the position.
From the proceeds of the position in AGI, I decided to complete the position in NIKL today. I put a bid of 21.65 after the opening. My bid didn't get hit disappointingly so around 11:15, I decided to cancel by bid and buy at the market. It closed lower at 21.70. How frustrating. 25% of the position I got at around 22-ish are suffering from a small paper loss while the majority of the position I got lower at 19-20 range are still holding up the gains so I am still net positive in the issue.
Just following its trend to minimize the stress in trading. Need to endure the drawdown though. Anyway, 5-minute chart looks pretty good as it seems to be sold down at the closing. Let's see how this one goes this week.
If only I had more patience to wait for a couple of days.
Still watching AEV, AP, JGS, and URC for possible reversal plays. I lowered the priority for FLI and MEG for the meantime until they fully recover from their downtrend. For the meantime both are still falling knives and dead cat bounces.
I don't know what to say with SCC today, but I got buy signal today. It looks pretty ugly with a small white candle today but I don't know. I think I'm going to range trade this one in the meantime. Weekly and daily trend is up.
Still a very selective market, I guess the best stocks to range trade or cat plays are the ones with relative volatility.
CYBR looks pretty interesting issue for this kind of play. Weekly trend is up, daily trend is up but intraday chart looks pretty manipulated as was only bought up at the closing.
However, value turnover is relatively light in today's rally.
Leading the rally for today are ALI +4.29%, MBT +2.38% and DMC +1.53% while the selling of TEL continued further today, losing another 0.34% and now resting at its support at 2360.
Other gainers with significant turnover are CYBR +11.65% and LIHC +4.71%.
I closed my position in AGI for a total of -1% of equity. The weak opening prompted me to sell it, plus the distribution of several foreign brokers specially Deutsche and Macquarie for over a week now felt more obvious than before, with COL only supporting the stock, I felt I was on the wrong side of the trade, thus the closing of the position.
From the proceeds of the position in AGI, I decided to complete the position in NIKL today. I put a bid of 21.65 after the opening. My bid didn't get hit disappointingly so around 11:15, I decided to cancel by bid and buy at the market. It closed lower at 21.70. How frustrating. 25% of the position I got at around 22-ish are suffering from a small paper loss while the majority of the position I got lower at 19-20 range are still holding up the gains so I am still net positive in the issue.
Just following its trend to minimize the stress in trading. Need to endure the drawdown though. Anyway, 5-minute chart looks pretty good as it seems to be sold down at the closing. Let's see how this one goes this week.
If only I had more patience to wait for a couple of days.
Still watching AEV, AP, JGS, and URC for possible reversal plays. I lowered the priority for FLI and MEG for the meantime until they fully recover from their downtrend. For the meantime both are still falling knives and dead cat bounces.
I don't know what to say with SCC today, but I got buy signal today. It looks pretty ugly with a small white candle today but I don't know. I think I'm going to range trade this one in the meantime. Weekly and daily trend is up.
Still a very selective market, I guess the best stocks to range trade or cat plays are the ones with relative volatility.
CYBR looks pretty interesting issue for this kind of play. Weekly trend is up, daily trend is up but intraday chart looks pretty manipulated as was only bought up at the closing.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Friday, February 11, 2011
Culling the weak.
Jesus Christ, wave after wave came the selling as the market opened, sending the index to a low of negative 60 points. From that point, I know that the market has entered a short term parabolic drop. Margin calls have been very evident during the opening as most of the selling was coming from COL. Value turnover for today has dropped significantly (but almost the same levels from the past 2 days if you discount the huge cross sales in AEV) which is fairly acceptable for first green day after a huge decline.
The margin calls seemed to be abused by brokerage houses as they only need to push the prices just a little more after the huge drop from yesterday. I think the right term for it is "squeezing out of the trade". Like when somebody pushes up the price just a little higher than usual when there is alot of short bears. Bears take cover, pushing the prices higher. Then the one who pushed the price unloads his shares to the covering bears.
This is just a fruit of my wild imagination though. :P
This is what happened in AGI during the first 30 minutes of trading:
I knew it was bound for a bounce so I wrote the text on the chart. I was deciding to close my entire position in AGI that time. I did not close it but sold the shares I got at 12.18 the day before at 11.28, right at the last doji after the steep decline. I needed the cash to increase position in NIKL. Right after I sold the shares, bam, somebody bought it up to 11.40. I was like, what the f? Anyway, I still have my original shares at 11.74 so the closing today is not bad.
Closig bid/ask looks pretty good to so I expect it to resume heading up by next week. Hopefully it breaks out of its pattern successfully next week.
I closed my position in SMC today despite of the bullish pattern that I was seeing in the 5-minute chart - ascending triangle. However, the target was only pointing at 185 - my original entry. So I closed the position.
With the cash I was able to generate from AGI and SMC, I increased my position in NIKL. I have increased my position in NIKL by 240% so I am pretty heavy in NIKL now.
INTRA INVEST has only sold 380k shares today. A little more than 4M shares to go.
Hopefully, everything recovers by next week so there would be a chance for us to unload/limit the losses. A dead cat bounce so to speak.
The margin calls seemed to be abused by brokerage houses as they only need to push the prices just a little more after the huge drop from yesterday. I think the right term for it is "squeezing out of the trade". Like when somebody pushes up the price just a little higher than usual when there is alot of short bears. Bears take cover, pushing the prices higher. Then the one who pushed the price unloads his shares to the covering bears.
This is just a fruit of my wild imagination though. :P
This is what happened in AGI during the first 30 minutes of trading:
I knew it was bound for a bounce so I wrote the text on the chart. I was deciding to close my entire position in AGI that time. I did not close it but sold the shares I got at 12.18 the day before at 11.28, right at the last doji after the steep decline. I needed the cash to increase position in NIKL. Right after I sold the shares, bam, somebody bought it up to 11.40. I was like, what the f? Anyway, I still have my original shares at 11.74 so the closing today is not bad.
Closig bid/ask looks pretty good to so I expect it to resume heading up by next week. Hopefully it breaks out of its pattern successfully next week.
I closed my position in SMC today despite of the bullish pattern that I was seeing in the 5-minute chart - ascending triangle. However, the target was only pointing at 185 - my original entry. So I closed the position.
With the cash I was able to generate from AGI and SMC, I increased my position in NIKL. I have increased my position in NIKL by 240% so I am pretty heavy in NIKL now.
INTRA INVEST has only sold 380k shares today. A little more than 4M shares to go.
Hopefully, everything recovers by next week so there would be a chance for us to unload/limit the losses. A dead cat bounce so to speak.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Foreign Activity
Net Foreign Selling has already amounted to 7.3B YTD.
How much more do you guys still have to sell?
How much more do you guys still have to sell?
Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP)
RSI just went into oversold territory. The only problem now is how long will it stay oversold and how deep do we go before we have that dead cat bounce.
Nickel Asia Corporation (NIKL)
Following the trend.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
CASH BUYER 28,255.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,260.00
Manila Electric Company (MER)
Trending down in an accelerated manner. Bearish flag breakdown at 224.
Hypothetically short at 119. Looking to cover(initial) at 200.
If it breaks below 200, best level to cover is at 156.
Ohh shhi- - -
Yes, I was like that during the entire session today. Wave after wave of selling didn't falter even until the closing. Only selected issues were able to recover by the closing.
The market broke the "support" at 3800 today on heavy volume, shedding 105 points today or 2.73%, closing at 3738. Even without the huge cross in AEV worth 1.7B, the total turnover for today still falls around 4.6B which is pretty bad specially on down days. Jesus Christ, 100 points in a day. Looking from here, filling the gap at 3600 looks pretty plausible in short/medium term.
The low value turnover earlier this week meant the lack of buyers. So there, we got the confirmation today.
I believe that with the sharp drop of the market today, we are probably bound for a quick dead cat before heading down further. Worst case thing that could happen would be another wave of panic selling without the dead cat.
The only issue that have a significant gain and volume is MRC but one can only look at it with skepticism as it is pretty much a controlled issue. Looking at its intraday trades, it only moved at the closing. It feels like it was manipulated today so it would have some "momentum" for tomorrow, hopefully enough to disposed whatever was bought today.
My positions in AGI and SMC went underwater today. Panic selling was also seen on both issues, with SMC going even beyond the 1% risk intraday. I was telling myself the entire time to endure the drawdown, endure the drawdown. What was bought on the closing should be held and sold at the closing, not during the panic selling. I think that worked pretty well as SMC recovered at the closing, hanging by a thread.
I was looking at the weekly chart of AGI and it occurred to me that the consolidation could probably extend up until the end of February. I'll decided on what to do with AGI this weekend.
SMC touched the bottom of its triangle support and it was trying to hold at that level during the entire session. Luckily, the stock recovered at the closing, safely holding up above support line.
I was actually surprised with NIKL's performance today. I was expecting the drop as it usually sheds around 6% whenever it makes a correction. But after two consecutive days of correction, it has only lost 3.75% so that would leave another 1.25% or so drop in the short term if we follow the pattern of its correction. I added another batch today at the closing. If it does drops another 1% or so, I would definitely add some more.
*I was digging up previous transactions in NIKL because I have observed INTRA-INVEST has been selling 9 days straight for the whole month of February. So I went to digging and I found out that they have around 7M+ shares from 16.50 and they have only just sold 3M shares. So if they don't buy any more shares, it will take them the whole month of February to close their entire position.
So if I have more than 100M invested, it will take me at least a month to liquidate the entire position. That's pretty interesting.
The market broke the "support" at 3800 today on heavy volume, shedding 105 points today or 2.73%, closing at 3738. Even without the huge cross in AEV worth 1.7B, the total turnover for today still falls around 4.6B which is pretty bad specially on down days. Jesus Christ, 100 points in a day. Looking from here, filling the gap at 3600 looks pretty plausible in short/medium term.
The low value turnover earlier this week meant the lack of buyers. So there, we got the confirmation today.
I believe that with the sharp drop of the market today, we are probably bound for a quick dead cat before heading down further. Worst case thing that could happen would be another wave of panic selling without the dead cat.
The only issue that have a significant gain and volume is MRC but one can only look at it with skepticism as it is pretty much a controlled issue. Looking at its intraday trades, it only moved at the closing. It feels like it was manipulated today so it would have some "momentum" for tomorrow, hopefully enough to disposed whatever was bought today.
My positions in AGI and SMC went underwater today. Panic selling was also seen on both issues, with SMC going even beyond the 1% risk intraday. I was telling myself the entire time to endure the drawdown, endure the drawdown. What was bought on the closing should be held and sold at the closing, not during the panic selling. I think that worked pretty well as SMC recovered at the closing, hanging by a thread.
I was looking at the weekly chart of AGI and it occurred to me that the consolidation could probably extend up until the end of February. I'll decided on what to do with AGI this weekend.
SMC touched the bottom of its triangle support and it was trying to hold at that level during the entire session. Luckily, the stock recovered at the closing, safely holding up above support line.
I was actually surprised with NIKL's performance today. I was expecting the drop as it usually sheds around 6% whenever it makes a correction. But after two consecutive days of correction, it has only lost 3.75% so that would leave another 1.25% or so drop in the short term if we follow the pattern of its correction. I added another batch today at the closing. If it does drops another 1% or so, I would definitely add some more.
*I was digging up previous transactions in NIKL because I have observed INTRA-INVEST has been selling 9 days straight for the whole month of February. So I went to digging and I found out that they have around 7M+ shares from 16.50 and they have only just sold 3M shares. So if they don't buy any more shares, it will take them the whole month of February to close their entire position.
So if I have more than 100M invested, it will take me at least a month to liquidate the entire position. That's pretty interesting.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Nothing catchy for today.
The drop today looks pretty bad as value turnover has once again increased to 5.9B, 1.68B came from the huge cross in AEV at the open at 33.60. Discounting the huge cross, the value turnover still falls to more than 4B.
Gainers with significant volume are ELI +5.80%, LC +2.35%, RLT +2.94%, LND +1.94% and AGI +1.67%.
On the other hand, losers with significant volume is led by ION -9.59% which was the superstar the other day, MRC -5%, CMT -3.80%, RFM -3.64%, DFNN -3.26%.
Index heavyweights for today are ALI -3.45%, MA -3.33%, and MBT -3.25% with TEL also losing 0.58% after waves of selling orders.
NIKL has started its correction in the short term. I still have some cash left so I would probably put up another position here after the correction.
AGI has somehow broke out of its triangle pattern - specially from its 5-min frame) at 12.10). If AGI closes at 12.36 or higher, I am fully convinced that it has broken out of its trading range already. I really hate seeing small white candlesticks during uptrends.
I am somewhat disappointed in SMC though as it closed flat from yesterday. Still hesitating at 185 levels! I am expecting it to head back to 180 if it encounters a corrective-consolidation cycle. Breaking down below 180 after the cycle is bad.
If SMC would still remain a laggard after AGI breaking 12.36 and NIKL starts to resume its uptrend again, I would probably liquidate it to add on both positions.
AEV had a humongous cross at the opening. 50M shares at 33.60. I have learned before that volume spikes usually starts something, a turning point so to speak. Putting some special attention to it from now on.
Position in SCC(my aunt's) still looking good. Definitely trending so I'm just gonna follow it the trend.
I would try to post something about foreign activities later once the QDR comes out.
Gainers with significant volume are ELI +5.80%, LC +2.35%, RLT +2.94%, LND +1.94% and AGI +1.67%.
On the other hand, losers with significant volume is led by ION -9.59% which was the superstar the other day, MRC -5%, CMT -3.80%, RFM -3.64%, DFNN -3.26%.
Index heavyweights for today are ALI -3.45%, MA -3.33%, and MBT -3.25% with TEL also losing 0.58% after waves of selling orders.
NIKL has started its correction in the short term. I still have some cash left so I would probably put up another position here after the correction.
AGI has somehow broke out of its triangle pattern - specially from its 5-min frame) at 12.10). If AGI closes at 12.36 or higher, I am fully convinced that it has broken out of its trading range already. I really hate seeing small white candlesticks during uptrends.
I am somewhat disappointed in SMC though as it closed flat from yesterday. Still hesitating at 185 levels! I am expecting it to head back to 180 if it encounters a corrective-consolidation cycle. Breaking down below 180 after the cycle is bad.
If SMC would still remain a laggard after AGI breaking 12.36 and NIKL starts to resume its uptrend again, I would probably liquidate it to add on both positions.
AEV had a humongous cross at the opening. 50M shares at 33.60. I have learned before that volume spikes usually starts something, a turning point so to speak. Putting some special attention to it from now on.
Position in SCC(my aunt's) still looking good. Definitely trending so I'm just gonna follow it the trend.
I would try to post something about foreign activities later once the QDR comes out.
Psychology during Stock Market Cycles
So where are we? As for me, I am just feeling either excited or thrilled as of the moment. That's one step away before the end! XD
Anyway, I had a long talk with my aunt yesterday since I am the one managing her trading account. Despite of the relative bullishness of the market in the last two years, she still feels beaten up and skeptic with the market because of her massive loss in AJO(now MARC) from 2007 levels I think. I think I was able to persuade her to close the loser so we can use the proceeds to (try to) gain back what she lost.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Reversal Candidates
JGS gave a trending buy signal for today.
MPI about to give a trending buy signal. Signal is confirmed only on actual crossover.
*Did not put up a position in JGS. Waiting for a higher trough to form before getting in.
*Will not put up a position in MPI. Potential short/long term upside is the lowest among the selection.
Not a recommendation to buy.
Belle Corporation (BEL)
BEL Daily Chart
5-5.50 range good enough if you caught falling knives at 5.
10% possible upside for the dead cat bounce.
Enter short position after testing 5.50.
5-5.50 range good enough if you caught falling knives at 5.
10% possible upside for the dead cat bounce.
Enter short position after testing 5.50.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
Nickel Prices Update:
CASH BUYER 28,700.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,705.00
Since when I started to post the graph of nickel, nickel prices in the world market has gone up by 6.29% from 27000 last February 1
Link of the initial post: http://the-morningstar-option.blogspot.com/2011/02/nickel-price-graph.html
The target of the inverted head and shoulder pattern on the chart at 28500 has already been surpassed it coincidentally falls within the size of the possible upswing from the start of the move up to the break out point.
With this being said, Nickel prices in the world market could probably start correcting.
However, basing from the previous pattern, the upswing after the breakout has exceeded the inverted head and shoulder pattern by 25% more.
With that in mind, nickel prices still have a possible upside of 6300 per tonne.
Just my wild imagination!
*Ninja Edit:
Nickel is currently trading at $13/lb, higher by 6.12% since February 1 at $12.25/lb.
Nickel has risen by 13.92% from its 2010 price level.
Crazy forecast for nickel is it could reach a high of $16/lb.
CASH BUYER 28,700.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,705.00
Since when I started to post the graph of nickel, nickel prices in the world market has gone up by 6.29% from 27000 last February 1
Link of the initial post: http://the-morningstar-option.blogspot.com/2011/02/nickel-price-graph.html
The target of the inverted head and shoulder pattern on the chart at 28500 has already been surpassed it coincidentally falls within the size of the possible upswing from the start of the move up to the break out point.
With this being said, Nickel prices in the world market could probably start correcting.
However, basing from the previous pattern, the upswing after the breakout has exceeded the inverted head and shoulder pattern by 25% more.
With that in mind, nickel prices still have a possible upside of 6300 per tonne.
Just my wild imagination!
*Ninja Edit:
Nickel is currently trading at $13/lb, higher by 6.12% since February 1 at $12.25/lb.
Nickel has risen by 13.92% from its 2010 price level.
Crazy forecast for nickel is it could reach a high of $16/lb.
Catching the big fish.
The market hardly moved today, closing lower by 1.55% on a slightly higher turnover value. Looking at the candlestick pattern of the index, a strong upswing will turn the market around for the short term.
Gainers with significant volume today are DFNN which continued to hold its gains from yesterday, gaining another 9.79% today. Other gainers with significant volume are LCB +3.49%, CMT +3.27%, NIKL +3.16% and SMC +2.95%.
Major index losers are SM -3.48% and AC -2.20%.
I totally missed the trade in DFNN since, well, I wasn't really observing non-marginable stocks for now. I am trying to look for/trade issues with consistent and sustainable trends.
AGI is looking good and it seems like it is poised to break 12 in the short term.
Symmetrical triangle pattern visible on the 5-minute chart was broken with breakout point at 11.80. Target is at 12.24. Closing is seems pretty strong too so breaking the barrier at 12 is very possible.
NIKL Continued to advance today, registering a new high at 23 before closing slightly lower at 22.85. 23 is jammed pretty good today but once it's taken out, it could still go higher in no time. The time that it would actually reverse and go south is when there is nobody is willing to buy higher. Until that day, enjoy the profits and follow the trend for a stress-free trading.
SMC seems to be poised to breakout at 185 so I opened up a position before the closing. I could probably made a mistake as the 5-min chart looks weak somehow.
I opened SMB intraday charts(5-min) by mistake but then I saw an ascending triangle pattern pointing at 35 as target.
The net has been cast so let's wait to catch some big fish.
Worth the time to watch this:
It's like attending a seminar, for free!
(Copy-paste the url, blogger can't seem to put up a direct link to websites).
Gainers with significant volume today are DFNN which continued to hold its gains from yesterday, gaining another 9.79% today. Other gainers with significant volume are LCB +3.49%, CMT +3.27%, NIKL +3.16% and SMC +2.95%.
Major index losers are SM -3.48% and AC -2.20%.
I totally missed the trade in DFNN since, well, I wasn't really observing non-marginable stocks for now. I am trying to look for/trade issues with consistent and sustainable trends.
AGI is looking good and it seems like it is poised to break 12 in the short term.
Symmetrical triangle pattern visible on the 5-minute chart was broken with breakout point at 11.80. Target is at 12.24. Closing is seems pretty strong too so breaking the barrier at 12 is very possible.
NIKL Continued to advance today, registering a new high at 23 before closing slightly lower at 22.85. 23 is jammed pretty good today but once it's taken out, it could still go higher in no time. The time that it would actually reverse and go south is when there is nobody is willing to buy higher. Until that day, enjoy the profits and follow the trend for a stress-free trading.
SMC seems to be poised to breakout at 185 so I opened up a position before the closing. I could probably made a mistake as the 5-min chart looks weak somehow.
I opened SMB intraday charts(5-min) by mistake but then I saw an ascending triangle pattern pointing at 35 as target.
The net has been cast so let's wait to catch some big fish.
Worth the time to watch this:
http://www.guerillastocktrading.com/lessons/im-a-jerk-which-stock-chart-is-better-part-2
It's like attending a seminar, for free!
(Copy-paste the url, blogger can't seem to put up a direct link to websites).
Intraday random rumbling
Betting a surge of buyers will be in line once 23 is taken out (NIKL).
AGI will breakout once 12 is taken out.
AGI will breakout once 12 is taken out.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Aboitiz Power Corp (AP)
Daily Chart
Hypothetically short of 4000 shares at 27.15.
Waiting for reversal and long entry signal.
Hypothetically short of 4000 shares at 27.15.
Waiting for reversal and long entry signal.
Semirara Mining Corporation (SCC)
Daily chart
The issue appears to have plenty of bearish divergence which is used to determine a huge drop in the short term. However, the divergence appears too often in the said issue, rendering the signal hardly useful so I would simply follow its trend.
The issue appears to have plenty of bearish divergence which is used to determine a huge drop in the short term. However, the divergence appears too often in the said issue, rendering the signal hardly useful so I would simply follow its trend.
Yes please.
It was generally a boring market today as we had the usual morning sickness, desperately holding to a 13-point gain, sliding during mid session before closing 7 points higher at 3880. The way the market is acting up, I think we are pretty much poised for reversal. Declining volume plus declining NFS? Yes please.
As boring as it was, the general market decided to make some money in certain issues, ELI was able to sustain its gain until the closing. Looking closer though, it hardly moved during the day. It simply held onto its gains from the opening until the closing.
It gained 14.52% today with considerable volume.
(No matter how hard I look at its chart though, I can't seem to figure out to trade it).
Other stocks with considerable volume are DFNN 8.83%, ION 5.07%, and TA 4.76%.
I was convinced that AGI is on the brink of breaking out in the short term so I decided to put up the initial position at the closing.
NIKL performed pretty well today. The bearish RSI divergence got cancelled today. With that out of the way, I am going to follow its trend now. I am expecting profit taking by tomorrow. I would probably buy the final batch for the position once it makes a correction.
Just waiting for FLI to correct further before taking up positions. It goes back to its recent low, I would probably just sell the cats.
MPI gave a trend buy signal. However, price movement and volume is hardly convincing so I did not touch it. Yet.
Hypothetical short position in AP is down by 1.28%.
As boring as it was, the general market decided to make some money in certain issues, ELI was able to sustain its gain until the closing. Looking closer though, it hardly moved during the day. It simply held onto its gains from the opening until the closing.
It gained 14.52% today with considerable volume.
(No matter how hard I look at its chart though, I can't seem to figure out to trade it).
Other stocks with considerable volume are DFNN 8.83%, ION 5.07%, and TA 4.76%.
I was convinced that AGI is on the brink of breaking out in the short term so I decided to put up the initial position at the closing.
NIKL performed pretty well today. The bearish RSI divergence got cancelled today. With that out of the way, I am going to follow its trend now. I am expecting profit taking by tomorrow. I would probably buy the final batch for the position once it makes a correction.
Just waiting for FLI to correct further before taking up positions. It goes back to its recent low, I would probably just sell the cats.
MPI gave a trend buy signal. However, price movement and volume is hardly convincing so I did not touch it. Yet.
Hypothetical short position in AP is down by 1.28%.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Trading for a living
Here are some of the advices that I got from other traders I found over the internet from a different website - for free.
An excerpt from the conversation:
In addition to these, I have also learned that one should take responsibility for the trade. With that being said, Warren Buffet's
Think stop loss as a cost of doing business, like transportation expense or payment to the staff that you just fired after sleeping at a very busy day at the office, which of course you could easily gain back by doing better business/hiring better staff the next time around.
The only time you will actually take a loss is when you put up a trade you didn't bother to plan or worst, didn't even think when you put up the trade.
An excerpt from the conversation:
I think, as with any other job you have to take some serious training. Trading is a very demanding occupation I can think of quite a few jobs where your wages can vary from a low wage to a good wage in a day. But not many jobs when after working hard for 9hrs you are 2 grand worse off you will have to accept this some days.
So first you need to be financially stable it’s no good trading with next months mortgage. You need to train yourself by reading, watching the markets, talking to other traders, paper trading, etc, etc,
You need a proper strategy. Its not good enough to read the Sunday Times and trade all the tips you find.
You have to have the right Psychology the market eats gamblers for breakfast.
You need sound money management, is no good betting the farm on a tip you get off a web site.
You need to protect your capital using stops, spreading your risks, limiting your trading size Its no good making 6k one week to lose 8k the next.
Money is the traders most important tool without money you are not a trader.
But without training self-discipline or the right psychology it will be very hard.
In addition to these, I have also learned that one should take responsibility for the trade. With that being said, Warren Buffet's
Never lose moneyrule is just a lame excuse for the lazy trader who doesn't want to take responsibility of a losing trade that he/she has put up.
Think stop loss as a cost of doing business, like transportation expense or payment to the staff that you just fired after sleeping at a very busy day at the office, which of course you could easily gain back by doing better business/hiring better staff the next time around.
The only time you will actually take a loss is when you put up a trade you didn't bother to plan or worst, didn't even think when you put up the trade.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
I think it would be very helpful to monitor nickel price in the world market in correlation to NIKL price movement (since watching the development of nickel price in the world market added conviction in staying with the trade).
Here's the updated graph after 4 days:
Here's the updated graph after 4 days:
CASH BUYER 27,775.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 27,780.00
Friday, February 4, 2011
Megaworld Corporation (MEG)
6-Month Daily Chart
After four months of moving sideways wit downward bias, a bullish formation has formed on the daily chart in the last couple of weeks: Ascending triangle.
Although an ascending triangle is more commonly seen as continuation patterns, there are times that it usually serves as a reversal pattern.
Breaking the resistance of the pattern at 2.20 would suggest a target of 2.40 in the short term.
Short-term upside potential : 9%
Long term upside potential : 29% - Breakout point 2.20 to 6-month high at 2.84.
*Formation of lower trough could simply mean a trading range.
After four months of moving sideways wit downward bias, a bullish formation has formed on the daily chart in the last couple of weeks: Ascending triangle.
Although an ascending triangle is more commonly seen as continuation patterns, there are times that it usually serves as a reversal pattern.
Breaking the resistance of the pattern at 2.20 would suggest a target of 2.40 in the short term.
Short-term upside potential : 9%
Long term upside potential : 29% - Breakout point 2.20 to 6-month high at 2.84.
*Formation of lower trough could simply mean a trading range.
Filinvest Land Inc. (FLI)
6-Month Daily Chart
Now that the initial condition of the system - formation of a higher peak -
is triggered today, the next condition is wait for a correction.
Optimal entries:
50% Fib retracement: 1.10
Gap support : 1.11-1.13.
Initial target will be placed at the new resistance at 1.20.
Immediate upside potential : 9%.
But with the fresh signal, 1.20 is highly likely to be taken out.
Long term upside potential : 36.36% - Lower end of entry 1.10 to 6-month high of 1.50.
**However, prices dropping back to 1.01, despite of looking attractive because of the false notion of "cheaper", would appear to be bearish as it could cause a formation of a lower peak again thus forming a bearish continuation pattern.
Also, the formation of lower peak is a system sell.
Now that the initial condition of the system - formation of a higher peak -
is triggered today, the next condition is wait for a correction.
Optimal entries:
50% Fib retracement: 1.10
Gap support : 1.11-1.13.
Initial target will be placed at the new resistance at 1.20.
Immediate upside potential : 9%.
But with the fresh signal, 1.20 is highly likely to be taken out.
Long term upside potential : 36.36% - Lower end of entry 1.10 to 6-month high of 1.50.
**However, prices dropping back to 1.01, despite of looking attractive because of the false notion of "cheaper", would appear to be bearish as it could cause a formation of a lower peak again thus forming a bearish continuation pattern.
Also, the formation of lower peak is a system sell.
Lower? Lower?
The market today closed lower by 16.20(-0.42%) points, closing lower at 3872 despite the fact that other Asian markets are up bu well over 1% as of this writing. The good thing about it is that the volume traded today has dropped significantly to 2.7Bil from 3.4Bil yesterday. Drying up of volume would suggest that sellers are running out of shares to sell already and the index could turn around back to heading up in the short term.
NIKL broke the previous high of 21.20, closing at 21.40 forming a new high despite of the weaker RSI reading(bearish divergence). I still haven't closed my position as it appears to me that it is in a strong uptrend. I am just expecting it to be one choppy ride.
Nickel is up since my last post(27000), approaching 28000 levels already. An up break at 28000 would probably send the contracts up to 28500 in the short term and hopefully, it could push the stock up in the short term.
SMC and AGI are looking attractive at current levels. Let's see how they do next week.
I am 50% cash so I would either put up a position in AGI or SMC. Or would it be better to put up a position in both issues. Or I could put up another position in NIKL for swing trading.
Good omens for the three are showing up!
Thank God there's 2 days to think over what I need to do by next week.
Here's something to watch over the weekend:
That's pretty much applicable to every tradable issue available.
NIKL broke the previous high of 21.20, closing at 21.40 forming a new high despite of the weaker RSI reading(bearish divergence). I still haven't closed my position as it appears to me that it is in a strong uptrend. I am just expecting it to be one choppy ride.
Nickel is up since my last post(27000), approaching 28000 levels already. An up break at 28000 would probably send the contracts up to 28500 in the short term and hopefully, it could push the stock up in the short term.
SMC and AGI are looking attractive at current levels. Let's see how they do next week.
I am 50% cash so I would either put up a position in AGI or SMC. Or would it be better to put up a position in both issues. Or I could put up another position in NIKL for swing trading.
Good omens for the three are showing up!
Thank God there's 2 days to think over what I need to do by next week.
Here's something to watch over the weekend:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHUaQmexJFM&feature=player_embedded#
That's pretty much applicable to every tradable issue available.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Nickel Asia (NIKL)
NIKL Daily Chart Update
It also appears to be forming an ascending triangle with a breakout point at 20.80.
Target of the pattern is at 22.70.
It also appears to be forming an ascending triangle with a breakout point at 20.80.
Target of the pattern is at 22.70.
On Chinese New Year
Everyone was waiting for the rally of the Chinese New Year today, the way everybody was waiting for the Santa Claus' Rally last December. Unfortunately, like Santa Claus who got stuck in the chimney, the rally never came and the market walked away today with a small scratch, losing 2.52 points only with relatively lower volume than the average turnover as today's turnover only amounted to 3.4Bil. Foreign selling amounted to around 500M today. Running out of shares to sell to push the market further down?
I added FLI and MEG to my "short" list last night but with the way those 2 performed today, I moved them up to my watchlist as FLI formed a higher peak today. Although the new peak wasn't sustained up until closing, it still closed higher from the previous one at 1.18. Now, I am looking to enter a position near 1.10 or preferably lower but I feel like the closer to 1, the safer.
On the other hand, MEG seems to be forming an ascending triangle at the bottom of its downtrend. I am not exactly sure though if this type of pattern works as a reversal or not.
SMB seems to be a good candidate for trend following. Not in the marginable list though.
I didn't touch SMC today as I was unsure on what it's doing. Forming a symmetrical or ascending triangle? Anyway, both are bullish patterns so I think I would probably get in once 180 is broken.
Still patiently waiting for AGI.
It seems like bullish harami are pretty much reliable for short term profits/technical bounces/strong downtrend. They seem to ensure a minimum of 5% gain in our market.
Yehey NIKL! I have no idea why it was being sold down early this morning, specially by R&L SEC. Looks like the guy got burned shorting the stock today. The other one that is selling relentlessly this morning is from INTRA-INVEST SEC so I decided to track his entry. Tracking back up to the issue's IPO(11-22-10), it appears that they have an average entry of 16.62. With that in mind, it would be safe to assume that they are just taking profits.
Interestingly, LARRGO SECURITIES(193) has not sold any shares they got at 17. Are you guys waiting to double your money?
At the start of 2011 up to date, MACQ has not sold any share that they got at 19.36(average) while ATR seems to be pushing the stock up so he can unload at a much higher price.
Anyway, here's just to see what I am talking about R&L shorts today :
Also, it would seem that I was right in reading the Nickel's price in LME.
CITISECONLINE has also released a research saying that NIKL's fair value is at 22.49 with a possible upside of 26(which I am guessing in the medium term).
*I think the full report was taken down...
*I think the reason why I am always unsure with my open positions is that I always put up a relatively small position that I always get shaken out by noise.
Will start a larger position in the next trade.
I added FLI and MEG to my "short" list last night but with the way those 2 performed today, I moved them up to my watchlist as FLI formed a higher peak today. Although the new peak wasn't sustained up until closing, it still closed higher from the previous one at 1.18. Now, I am looking to enter a position near 1.10 or preferably lower but I feel like the closer to 1, the safer.
On the other hand, MEG seems to be forming an ascending triangle at the bottom of its downtrend. I am not exactly sure though if this type of pattern works as a reversal or not.
SMB seems to be a good candidate for trend following. Not in the marginable list though.
I didn't touch SMC today as I was unsure on what it's doing. Forming a symmetrical or ascending triangle? Anyway, both are bullish patterns so I think I would probably get in once 180 is broken.
Still patiently waiting for AGI.
It seems like bullish harami are pretty much reliable for short term profits/technical bounces/strong downtrend. They seem to ensure a minimum of 5% gain in our market.
Yehey NIKL! I have no idea why it was being sold down early this morning, specially by R&L SEC. Looks like the guy got burned shorting the stock today. The other one that is selling relentlessly this morning is from INTRA-INVEST SEC so I decided to track his entry. Tracking back up to the issue's IPO(11-22-10), it appears that they have an average entry of 16.62. With that in mind, it would be safe to assume that they are just taking profits.
Interestingly, LARRGO SECURITIES(193) has not sold any shares they got at 17. Are you guys waiting to double your money?
At the start of 2011 up to date, MACQ has not sold any share that they got at 19.36(average) while ATR seems to be pushing the stock up so he can unload at a much higher price.
Anyway, here's just to see what I am talking about R&L shorts today :
Also, it would seem that I was right in reading the Nickel's price in LME.
CITISECONLINE has also released a research saying that NIKL's fair value is at 22.49 with a possible upside of 26(which I am guessing in the medium term).
*I think the full report was taken down...
*I think the reason why I am always unsure with my open positions is that I always put up a relatively small position that I always get shaken out by noise.
Will start a larger position in the next trade.
Alliance Global Group
Short the market: Open position
Sold 8500 shares at 11.72 (doji).
Trailing stop 11.50
Stop loss: .20
Cover shorts at 11.40-11.30
Sold 8500 shares at 11.72 (doji).
Trailing stop 11.50
Stop loss: .20
Cover shorts at 11.40-11.30
Short the Market
Playing the hypothetical "short the market" game.
Standard short selling rules(can keep short positions overnight).
Initial Equity: P500k
Maximum open positions: 3
*Once the hypothetical account gets blown up, time to go long on the real market.
Open Short Position:
AP 4000 shares at 27.15 - down 0.05% - stop loss 5%
MER 1000 shares at 119 - stop loss 5%
Standard short selling rules(can keep short positions overnight).
Initial Equity: P500k
Maximum open positions: 3
*Once the hypothetical account gets blown up, time to go long on the real market.
Open Short Position:
AP 4000 shares at 27.15 - down 0.05% - stop loss 5%
MER 1000 shares at 119 - stop loss 5%
Aboitiz Power Corp (AP)
Short the market candidate:
Sell 4000 shares once prices break below 26.90(26.80).
Double up positions once prices break below 26.20(26.10).
Trailing stop at 24.50-24.15.
Cover short positions at 22(Symmetrical triangle target: 22.10)
Stop loss 5% on average entry.
Sell 4000 shares once prices break below 26.90(26.80).
Double up positions once prices break below 26.20(26.10).
Trailing stop at 24.50-24.15.
Cover short positions at 22(Symmetrical triangle target: 22.10)
Stop loss 5% on average entry.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Interesting Candlesticks
While scanning for trade setups today, I found these interesting candlesticks that I have never seen before - during the run up and in the books. I just saw them today - during the downtrend and dead cats:
All of them showed at the bottom(downtrend) and I have no idea what they mean.
Moving on through my scans, I found yet another sample of the candlestick formation which is older by 3 days:
Does it mean reversal? Forming a base? Or bearishly consolidating at the bottom?
Let's make it more complicated. I found the same pattern on an issue that has moved up:
It looks like a dark cloud cover, only this time, it's not a dark cloud.
Not a bullish engulfing.
Not a piercing pattern.
Not a kicking pattern.
If none of the above, what could it be?
Oh and volume is pretty heavy on the long white candle.
I think I just found out another way to complicate my trading!
All of them showed at the bottom(downtrend) and I have no idea what they mean.
Moving on through my scans, I found yet another sample of the candlestick formation which is older by 3 days:
Does it mean reversal? Forming a base? Or bearishly consolidating at the bottom?
Let's make it more complicated. I found the same pattern on an issue that has moved up:
It looks like a dark cloud cover, only this time, it's not a dark cloud.
Not a bullish engulfing.
Not a piercing pattern.
Not a kicking pattern.
If none of the above, what could it be?
Oh and volume is pretty heavy on the long white candle.
I think I just found out another way to complicate my trading!
Foreign Activity
NFS for today amounted to around 340M. That's 1Bil NFS in two days. Since the foreign brokerage houses can short on their own, they are probably covering up today.
Foreign selling is still very heavy in BDO with another 220M(180 yesterday) while the second heaviest foreign selling yesterday FLI turned around today with 49M NFB.
Foreign buying has also began in certain issues today like AP with 81M, FLI 49M and CEB 48M.
If the foreigns stop depressing the market, we could actually climb a little higher in the short term (so they could short again with better gains).
Foreign selling is still very heavy in BDO with another 220M(180 yesterday) while the second heaviest foreign selling yesterday FLI turned around today with 49M NFB.
Foreign buying has also began in certain issues today like AP with 81M, FLI 49M and CEB 48M.
If the foreigns stop depressing the market, we could actually climb a little higher in the short term (so they could short again with better gains).
And today I was like...
I sold MER at 228 today hence the picture. I made some profit from it anyway but could have gotten more if I sat still and wait until the closing before selling.
I already wrote a plan to sell it at 240. Way to follow your plan.
*Positions opened up at the closing should be sold either on the next day's opening rush or at the closing, not during mid-sessions.
Sold LC for a loss too during mid-session despite heavy buying of Wealth, JAP and Regina these past few days. I'll be damned if it moves up tomorrow which is highly likely as a doji has formed today.
Sold SCC for a small loss plus commission.
So there, with the 1.58% gain of the index today, I closed all positions that hardly gave profit. Turnover for today dropped to 4Bil which is lower from yesterday.
AGI tried to break out of 12 today but could not sustain the strength until closing so I guess it is going to head a little lower by the end of the week. I would have put up a position in it had it closed higher than 12 today.
ATR seems to be gobbling up NIKL shares at 19.90 to 20 levels this past few days. Hopefully it will do good to the issue in the short term.
For now, I am just waiting for trade setups in SMC, AGI and NIKL. Will post useful charts(hopefully) later.
In a downtrend, the right thing to do is to open a short position. Opening long positions would be illogical. So with the "long only" market that we have, what's the right thing to do now? Yep, that's right.
*With the market moving down, I am going to play a game called "short the market". I'll look for certain issues to short hypothetically. Short positions would last longer like regular short positions in global markets instead of the 1-day-only short in our market.
Global Markets
US and European markets closed more than 1% higher. DOW is back to 12k levels.
Nikkei and Topix are also up by more than 1%.
Baby Jesus let Index rebound today.
Nikkei and Topix are also up by more than 1%.
Baby Jesus let Index rebound today.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Nickel Price Graph
No idea if this chart could be read the same as reading stock charts or if this is the right chart at all but I am going to post it anyway:
IF it can be read the same way as any other stock charts, price breaking out of reversed head and shoulder would suggest a target of 28500.
That would be good for NIKL right? Just keeping my hopes up! Anyway, it is definitely trending up. Still good for NIKL right? Right?! Haha
**European markets are up by almost 1% as of this writing. Asian markets closed slightly higher. Hopefully the market recovers tomorrow(despite of the fugly chart).
IF it can be read the same way as any other stock charts, price breaking out of reversed head and shoulder would suggest a target of 28500.
That would be good for NIKL right? Just keeping my hopes up! Anyway, it is definitely trending up. Still good for NIKL right? Right?! Haha
**European markets are up by almost 1% as of this writing. Asian markets closed slightly higher. Hopefully the market recovers tomorrow(despite of the fugly chart).