Sold MEG and FGEN for a significant loss today and I've pent all my of my gains from last month in three weeks. However, I found out what's wrong with my trades this month and market is not acting up within my expectations so I moved out.
I'll be watching the market for the meantime.
Back to square one. Synchronizing my trading month with actual months. My mind set is not really for medium term so I am going to use a shorter time frame now. No more trades for this week.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Food for thought
Looking back at my previous trades these past three weeks or so made me realize that I have been trading very badly as all of them are traded against my trading rules. I found out that I have been forcing money out of the market.
60% of what I gained on my first month, I already gave back to Ms. Market.
Goddammit, this is so frustrating.
Stocks go up in a bull market eventually. But timing and finding the best trades are far better than putting money recklessly.
I need to get out of the market to clear my system!
I wont be updating my trades for the mean time(more likely not on time) as I am keeping records on real paper now but I'll try to post charts from time to time to find good trades.
60% of what I gained on my first month, I already gave back to Ms. Market.
Goddammit, this is so frustrating.
Stocks go up in a bull market eventually. But timing and finding the best trades are far better than putting money recklessly.
I need to get out of the market to clear my system!
I wont be updating my trades for the mean time(more likely not on time) as I am keeping records on real paper now but I'll try to post charts from time to time to find good trades.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market was flat for the entire session before succumbing to further profit taking across the board, closing 13 points lower from yesterday's close at 4111. Top gainers for today are mostly penny stocks, UPM with the most significant volume but the value is still pathetic.
MEG fell to a low of 2.27 before closing at 2.29, lower by 0.43% from yesterday's closing. Rebound should be any time this week as ROC is pointing up although on a weaker momentum. Sell on rally would probably the best thing to do if momentum weakens further.
DGTL fell to a low of 1.59, same as yesterday's low before closing higher by 1.25% at 1.62. The stock formed a bullish harami-tweezer bottom, which is confirmed by ROC pointing up and momentum build up so I am expecting it to advance again in the coming days.
FGEN continued to consolidate in today's session as there are strong selling pressure whenever it reaches 14. ROC is pointing up but momentum seems to weaken so it might consolidate further at best. However, if the resistance at 14 is taken out convincingly, expect it to advance further with next resistance at 16.
Weekly charts of all three are calling for sell at rallies. It might be the best thing to do so I can assess the market better and take better position.
2-centavo paper loss in MEG - 13 trading days
7-centavo paper loss in DGTL - 4 trading days
10-centavo paper loss in FGEN - 3 trading days
I need to re-write my trading plan!
MEG fell to a low of 2.27 before closing at 2.29, lower by 0.43% from yesterday's closing. Rebound should be any time this week as ROC is pointing up although on a weaker momentum. Sell on rally would probably the best thing to do if momentum weakens further.
DGTL fell to a low of 1.59, same as yesterday's low before closing higher by 1.25% at 1.62. The stock formed a bullish harami-tweezer bottom, which is confirmed by ROC pointing up and momentum build up so I am expecting it to advance again in the coming days.
FGEN continued to consolidate in today's session as there are strong selling pressure whenever it reaches 14. ROC is pointing up but momentum seems to weaken so it might consolidate further at best. However, if the resistance at 14 is taken out convincingly, expect it to advance further with next resistance at 16.
Weekly charts of all three are calling for sell at rallies. It might be the best thing to do so I can assess the market better and take better position.
2-centavo paper loss in MEG - 13 trading days
7-centavo paper loss in DGTL - 4 trading days
10-centavo paper loss in FGEN - 3 trading days
I need to re-write my trading plan!
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market was down by 18 points during the session before closing 1 point higher at the end of the session. CMT was the only one to advance significantly with high volume. Other significant gainers for today are EDC, AP, GLO and MER.
Could it be that foreign funds are now rotating back into the power sector? CMT is still play and up until now, I don't know what's the story behind its movement. They are under construction-infrastructure sector of the market but I honestly haven't seen any of their projects.
I am disappointed somehow on my performance these previous weeks. Jumping on the mining train too late, FGEN and DGTL(although a little late too) behaving opposite of what I've expected while following my trading plan. Maybe I should sell all positions so I can assess the market better. MEG is my saving grace as it is behaving the way I've expected it to do.
I was expecting FGEN to advance in today's session but it met a strong selling pressure instead and with relatively high volume too. Hopefully the resistance at 14 gets broken this week so it can advance further although I doubt it because foreign funds are net sellers the last seven days including today.
The selling continued today in DGTL plus foreign funds also started selling. The gap it made last Friday is being threatened to be filled tomorrow. Ready to cut. Again.
As I've expected, MEG touched my personal support at 2.26-2.28 but its low for today at 2.25 was 1 centavo lower from my support. Anyway, my personal support defended the said level as MEG closed at 2.30, 1 centavo lower from my entry. It could advance again anytime by now as my technical indicators are pointing. The net foreign selling these past seven days are making me feel uneasy though.
All three stocks looks bad on the weekly chart so I will try to sell all of them in rallies.
The possible reason why I am losing money this previous week is I could be possibly forcing money out of the market.
I've spent 60% of last month's gain already trying to figure out this market.
Could it be that foreign funds are now rotating back into the power sector? CMT is still play and up until now, I don't know what's the story behind its movement. They are under construction-infrastructure sector of the market but I honestly haven't seen any of their projects.
I am disappointed somehow on my performance these previous weeks. Jumping on the mining train too late, FGEN and DGTL(although a little late too) behaving opposite of what I've expected while following my trading plan. Maybe I should sell all positions so I can assess the market better. MEG is my saving grace as it is behaving the way I've expected it to do.
I was expecting FGEN to advance in today's session but it met a strong selling pressure instead and with relatively high volume too. Hopefully the resistance at 14 gets broken this week so it can advance further although I doubt it because foreign funds are net sellers the last seven days including today.
The selling continued today in DGTL plus foreign funds also started selling. The gap it made last Friday is being threatened to be filled tomorrow. Ready to cut. Again.
As I've expected, MEG touched my personal support at 2.26-2.28 but its low for today at 2.25 was 1 centavo lower from my support. Anyway, my personal support defended the said level as MEG closed at 2.30, 1 centavo lower from my entry. It could advance again anytime by now as my technical indicators are pointing. The net foreign selling these past seven days are making me feel uneasy though.
All three stocks looks bad on the weekly chart so I will try to sell all of them in rallies.
The possible reason why I am losing money this previous week is I could be possibly forcing money out of the market.
I've spent 60% of last month's gain already trying to figure out this market.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market stepped on my "Do not step" nerve as it closed 43.96 points higher courtesy of the big bad TEL gaining 1% today while the second liners that I am currently holding turned red at the end of the day. The market has finally closed 3% higher from the 4000-psychological barrier. It would be just a matter of days now to clear the uptrend in the long term.
MEG closed 1 centavo lower from my entry, showing a very strong selling pressure throughout the session which was accompanied by relatively high volume. ROC is still pointing down so my personal support at 2.26 to 2.28 will probably get hit. Weekly chart is suggesting medium term peak so I might sell on rally this week.
DGTL was also sold down the entire session closing 3 centavos lower from my entry at 1.66. This current behavior of this stock is something I can't understand(I still don't understand). A gap up followed which was accompanied with exceptional volume was immediately followed by a strong selling pressure with volume that was half of the previous session? Anyway, I am expecting the support from Friday's gap at 1.61 holds. Otherwise I would be cutting here again. Judging from other stock behavior, consolidation in the short term is also possible.
Bought FGEN at 13.86 today from the proceeds of MA which I also sold at a loss today. It is currently resting at the resistance but with the ROC pointing up and the volume traded today, it would be safe to assume that it will be broken this week with a target of 14.90 in the short term. It closed today at 13.88 with two centavo gain.
2 losing trades out of 5 trades in two weeks. The 3 remaining positions are relatively unchanged.
MEG - eleven days.
DGTL - two days.
FGEN - one day.
Maybe I shouldn't be pushing my patience by holding long onto my current positions. Previous holding time are showing better performance as they showed gains instead of unchanged position/losses.
Do I need to sell all of my current holdings to make a better assessment of the general market condition? Currently no mentor for this kind of market condition.
MEG closed 1 centavo lower from my entry, showing a very strong selling pressure throughout the session which was accompanied by relatively high volume. ROC is still pointing down so my personal support at 2.26 to 2.28 will probably get hit. Weekly chart is suggesting medium term peak so I might sell on rally this week.
DGTL was also sold down the entire session closing 3 centavos lower from my entry at 1.66. This current behavior of this stock is something I can't understand(I still don't understand). A gap up followed which was accompanied with exceptional volume was immediately followed by a strong selling pressure with volume that was half of the previous session? Anyway, I am expecting the support from Friday's gap at 1.61 holds. Otherwise I would be cutting here again. Judging from other stock behavior, consolidation in the short term is also possible.
Bought FGEN at 13.86 today from the proceeds of MA which I also sold at a loss today. It is currently resting at the resistance but with the ROC pointing up and the volume traded today, it would be safe to assume that it will be broken this week with a target of 14.90 in the short term. It closed today at 13.88 with two centavo gain.
2 losing trades out of 5 trades in two weeks. The 3 remaining positions are relatively unchanged.
MEG - eleven days.
DGTL - two days.
FGEN - one day.
Maybe I shouldn't be pushing my patience by holding long onto my current positions. Previous holding time are showing better performance as they showed gains instead of unchanged position/losses.
Do I need to sell all of my current holdings to make a better assessment of the general market condition? Currently no mentor for this kind of market condition.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
DIGITAL TEL. PHILIPPINES, INC. (DGTL)
1 Year Daily Chart
Monthly, weekly and daily trends are up. Volume follows price movements (increases as price advances and decreases in price declines) so it is safe to assume the recent uptrend is healthy.
There is a reversed head and shoulder pattern that is visible in the monthly, weekly and daily charts, with the neckline at 1.64.
Broken neckline of reversed head and shoulder target: 2.33
Short term target: 1.85 (gap up target)
Support: 1.61
Major resistance: 2 - 2.44.
Monthly, weekly and daily trends are up. Volume follows price movements (increases as price advances and decreases in price declines) so it is safe to assume the recent uptrend is healthy.
There is a reversed head and shoulder pattern that is visible in the monthly, weekly and daily charts, with the neckline at 1.64.
Broken neckline of reversed head and shoulder target: 2.33
Short term target: 1.85 (gap up target)
Support: 1.61
Major resistance: 2 - 2.44.
Alsons Consolidated Resources (ACR)
Monthly Chart
Monthly trend is up as pointed by MACD above zero line and 10-MA is above 50-MA. MACD histogram is suggesting that the trend has just began.
A rising method candlestick pattern showed in the monthly charts suggesting further price advances in the intermediate term.
Weekly Chart
Broke out of downtrend early this month that started November last year. Recent up trend is confirmed by the crossing of the MACD line over the zero line. However, the 10-MA is still below the 50-MA.
Latest candlestick formation is a bullish belt hold which supports the idea of further price advance in the intermediate term.
Daily Chart
Daily trend is also up but recent doji candlestick formation suggests short term peak.
SUMMARY
Monthly and weekly charts are suggesting price advances in the intermediate term so declines in the daily charts should merit a buy. However, it would be better to wait for the price to bounce back before taking in a new position.
If the price consolidates in the current levels, price advancing to 1.35 would merit a buy.
Price advances are accompanied by increase in volume so it would be safe to assume that the recent uptrend is healthy.
Support: 1.21
Resistance:1.60; if broken
Target: 2.50
Monthly trend is up as pointed by MACD above zero line and 10-MA is above 50-MA. MACD histogram is suggesting that the trend has just began.
A rising method candlestick pattern showed in the monthly charts suggesting further price advances in the intermediate term.
Weekly Chart
Broke out of downtrend early this month that started November last year. Recent up trend is confirmed by the crossing of the MACD line over the zero line. However, the 10-MA is still below the 50-MA.
Latest candlestick formation is a bullish belt hold which supports the idea of further price advance in the intermediate term.
Daily Chart
Daily trend is also up but recent doji candlestick formation suggests short term peak.
SUMMARY
Monthly and weekly charts are suggesting price advances in the intermediate term so declines in the daily charts should merit a buy. However, it would be better to wait for the price to bounce back before taking in a new position.
If the price consolidates in the current levels, price advancing to 1.35 would merit a buy.
Price advances are accompanied by increase in volume so it would be safe to assume that the recent uptrend is healthy.
Support: 1.21
Resistance:1.60; if broken
Target: 2.50
Friday, September 24, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market today ended relatively flat as it closed only by 11.44 points higher from yesterday' s session.
Today, I bought DGTL at 1.69 but it closed 1 centavo lower at 1.68. I am not bothered with the small loss though as it made a gap up from yesterday's closing with exceptional volume, almost five times of its daily turnover this past week. The PAR-SAR in the weekly charts also pointed this week as a buy. Immediate resistance at 1.76 while the target of the gap today is at 1.89.
I also took a small position in MA at .029 but it closed at .026 so this is another loss for me. I bought both issues too early today but it can't be helped. I think that the last thirty minutes is really the best time to buy.
Hopefully I can get out alive in MA or with a smaller loss. Weekly PAR-SAR just pointed a buy signal last week so it could still advance by next week. The reason I am shaky in playing this issue is I am not familiar with its behavior.
I probably should have bought MEG instead of MA with the remaining funds for swing trading.
MEG gave a buy signal today. It's now 1.71% higher from my break-even point.
I think I can use the lower PAR-SAR line as an indicator where to add up positions if the stock is still trending up strongly.
Sitting on a 12.80% net paper loss in MA on a small position, 1 centavo loss in DGTL and 1.71% net paper gain.
Charts later!
Today, I bought DGTL at 1.69 but it closed 1 centavo lower at 1.68. I am not bothered with the small loss though as it made a gap up from yesterday's closing with exceptional volume, almost five times of its daily turnover this past week. The PAR-SAR in the weekly charts also pointed this week as a buy. Immediate resistance at 1.76 while the target of the gap today is at 1.89.
I also took a small position in MA at .029 but it closed at .026 so this is another loss for me. I bought both issues too early today but it can't be helped. I think that the last thirty minutes is really the best time to buy.
Hopefully I can get out alive in MA or with a smaller loss. Weekly PAR-SAR just pointed a buy signal last week so it could still advance by next week. The reason I am shaky in playing this issue is I am not familiar with its behavior.
I probably should have bought MEG instead of MA with the remaining funds for swing trading.
MEG gave a buy signal today. It's now 1.71% higher from my break-even point.
I think I can use the lower PAR-SAR line as an indicator where to add up positions if the stock is still trending up strongly.
Sitting on a 12.80% net paper loss in MA on a small position, 1 centavo loss in DGTL and 1.71% net paper gain.
Charts later!
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market hardly moved today, closing up with 13 points higher from yesterday's session at 4067.43. The market could have closed lower today if not for the mining sector.
No trades for me today as I did some personal errands today so I didn't get to chase AT, but it gave a buy signal today. I'll try to buy tomorrow. PX doesn't seem to need chasing as it lost its momentum today.
MEG has finally declined together with my technical indicator, negating its bearish divergence that I thought was bullish. The bands are tightening so I am expecting a break in the near term. Support at 2.29 should hold. Currently formed a tweezer bottom in the middle of the trading range. Let's see how would this one perform.
I am looking for a day-trade/short term play in either ACR or MARC as 50% of my capital is free but I am still looking to average up in my position in MEG and in AT. PAR-SAR just gave out a buy signal in ACR last Tuesday while the buy signal in MARC was from last Friday. I think I can catch up the last upswing tomorrow.
LC/B could also provide a good day trading for tomorrow.
I have also been looking at the monthly charts for possible "long term" trades using PAR-SAR and I found DGTL as a possible candidate. ACR gave its buy signal in the weekly charts late September. PX, LND gave its signal early this month. MA and MARC just gave its buy signal last week. LC/B gave their buy signal in the weekly charts three months early! RFM and SFI has just began sending off buy signal so it might be worth watching in the coming months.
So in the case of LC/B, how early is early and how late is late?
8.28% net loss in seven trading days courtesy of GMAP and 0.86% loss in MEG.
*I am assuming that the height of the ascent during spikes is also the time needed during consolidation. This is would be true, the index would advance again after four more days of consolidation.
No trades for me today as I did some personal errands today so I didn't get to chase AT, but it gave a buy signal today. I'll try to buy tomorrow. PX doesn't seem to need chasing as it lost its momentum today.
MEG has finally declined together with my technical indicator, negating its bearish divergence that I thought was bullish. The bands are tightening so I am expecting a break in the near term. Support at 2.29 should hold. Currently formed a tweezer bottom in the middle of the trading range. Let's see how would this one perform.
I am looking for a day-trade/short term play in either ACR or MARC as 50% of my capital is free but I am still looking to average up in my position in MEG and in AT. PAR-SAR just gave out a buy signal in ACR last Tuesday while the buy signal in MARC was from last Friday. I think I can catch up the last upswing tomorrow.
LC/B could also provide a good day trading for tomorrow.
I have also been looking at the monthly charts for possible "long term" trades using PAR-SAR and I found DGTL as a possible candidate. ACR gave its buy signal in the weekly charts late September. PX, LND gave its signal early this month. MA and MARC just gave its buy signal last week. LC/B gave their buy signal in the weekly charts three months early! RFM and SFI has just began sending off buy signal so it might be worth watching in the coming months.
So in the case of LC/B, how early is early and how late is late?
8.28% net loss in seven trading days courtesy of GMAP and 0.86% loss in MEG.
*I am assuming that the height of the ascent during spikes is also the time needed during consolidation. This is would be true, the index would advance again after four more days of consolidation.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market slid by 69 points during the day before gaining half of it at the end of the session closing at 4054, 34 points lower from yesterday's closing. Our foreign friends are net buyers today compared to their miniscule buying yesterday. The market needs to hold at this level to confirm further uptrend in then near term. However, if it does not, expect the market to drop up to 3872.
Today, I sold GMAP with 8% loss as I did not like its behavior today plus the fact that foreign selling was a little bit obvious. Another reason why I sold it was PX gave off a buy signal today from my technical indicator but I didn't get to buy it because of the lack of available funds. The support at the previous gap up at 14.40 held as the price bounced off from that level today.
AT is also about to give a buy signal from my technical indicator tomorrow. However, the triple screening system has already given a buy signal on both issues.
Both issues also NFB today.
I'm hoping to play catch up on these two tomorrow.
MEG has also a net foreign buying today after they sold it down yesterday. I was wrong to assume its behavior last week as bullish divergence. From the looks of it, it is poised to consolidate further or it might correct in the near term. If it makes a correction, I am expecting 2.39 to provide support. If 2.39 breaks, I am expecting it to decline up to 2.28.
8.28% net loss in seven trading days courtesy of GMAP.
1% net paper gain in seven trading days courtesy of MEG.
*It seems like tweezer formation is a reliable support confirmation rather than pointing out peaks. Or they could be possibly more effective in pointing out peaks in trending issues that shows weakness.
**It seems that a correction to the 23.6% retracement level provides support to stocks that are advancing in an accelerated pacing.
Today, I sold GMAP with 8% loss as I did not like its behavior today plus the fact that foreign selling was a little bit obvious. Another reason why I sold it was PX gave off a buy signal today from my technical indicator but I didn't get to buy it because of the lack of available funds. The support at the previous gap up at 14.40 held as the price bounced off from that level today.
AT is also about to give a buy signal from my technical indicator tomorrow. However, the triple screening system has already given a buy signal on both issues.
Both issues also NFB today.
I'm hoping to play catch up on these two tomorrow.
MEG has also a net foreign buying today after they sold it down yesterday. I was wrong to assume its behavior last week as bullish divergence. From the looks of it, it is poised to consolidate further or it might correct in the near term. If it makes a correction, I am expecting 2.39 to provide support. If 2.39 breaks, I am expecting it to decline up to 2.28.
8.28% net loss in seven trading days courtesy of GMAP.
1% net paper gain in seven trading days courtesy of MEG.
*It seems like tweezer formation is a reliable support confirmation rather than pointing out peaks. Or they could be possibly more effective in pointing out peaks in trending issues that shows weakness.
**It seems that a correction to the 23.6% retracement level provides support to stocks that are advancing in an accelerated pacing.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market today closed positively by 34 points but slightly lower from the day's high as profit taking was seen across the board.
Profit taking by major brokerage houses are seen throughout the session in MEG as it closed 1 centavo lower from yesterday's session, closing at 2.46. Seems like they are distributing now. Support should hold somewhere at 2.30 once it makes a correction. Volume today are much higher than last week's advances. Technical indicators are still pointing down so I will not be surprised if it continue to decline this week.
GMAP closed by 2% higher today as ATR seems to be accumulating, while JPMorgan has been a net seller today. I am contented with the confirmation today so I still held on to my position. Technical indicators are pointing up now so it should advance anytime by now.
PX also met strong selling in today session closing 4.79% lower from yesterday, forming a dark cloud cover. Technical indicators are also pointing down. The support at 14.40 should hold. This could provide a place for fund rotation once I get out of GMAP or MEG, whichever reaches their targets first.
Technical indicators are also declining rapidly in AT. 13.46 should provide some solid ground for support.
Still sitting on a 4.29% net paper gain in MEG while sitting on a much lower net paper loss at 6.51% with GMAP.
Profit taking by major brokerage houses are seen throughout the session in MEG as it closed 1 centavo lower from yesterday's session, closing at 2.46. Seems like they are distributing now. Support should hold somewhere at 2.30 once it makes a correction. Volume today are much higher than last week's advances. Technical indicators are still pointing down so I will not be surprised if it continue to decline this week.
GMAP closed by 2% higher today as ATR seems to be accumulating, while JPMorgan has been a net seller today. I am contented with the confirmation today so I still held on to my position. Technical indicators are pointing up now so it should advance anytime by now.
PX also met strong selling in today session closing 4.79% lower from yesterday, forming a dark cloud cover. Technical indicators are also pointing down. The support at 14.40 should hold. This could provide a place for fund rotation once I get out of GMAP or MEG, whichever reaches their targets first.
Technical indicators are also declining rapidly in AT. 13.46 should provide some solid ground for support.
Still sitting on a 4.29% net paper gain in MEG while sitting on a much lower net paper loss at 6.51% with GMAP.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The index closed 74 points higher at 4053, closing 1% higher from the psychological resistance at 4000. I am confident to say that it will continue to move higher this coming days and it might break the psychological resistance by 3% this week.
PX made a gap earlier but some profit taking pushed the stock slightly lower but continued to move higher by mid session as it buyers started to push the price higher, breaking the the next resistance level at 16 by more than 3%, gaining a total of 16.29% in today's session. The risk in comparison to reward is now too high if you didn't get in the 13-14 levels. Next resistance is at 19.50. Buy on weakness.
EDC did what I expected it to do and I am still expecting it to advance in the next few days.
DGTL seemed to formed a buy signal today while RFM continued to move within consolidation range.
MEG seems to be forming a bullish divergence as my trusted technical indicator is pointing down but the price movement is advancing which is also accompanied by high volume.
GMAP looks like it has formed a bullish harami today so I did not sell yet. If the harami is confirmed tomorrow, I will hold. If not, I will sell.
Currently sitting on a 8.28% net loss courtesy of GMAP and 4% net gain courtesy of MEG.
PX made a gap earlier but some profit taking pushed the stock slightly lower but continued to move higher by mid session as it buyers started to push the price higher, breaking the the next resistance level at 16 by more than 3%, gaining a total of 16.29% in today's session. The risk in comparison to reward is now too high if you didn't get in the 13-14 levels. Next resistance is at 19.50. Buy on weakness.
EDC did what I expected it to do and I am still expecting it to advance in the next few days.
DGTL seemed to formed a buy signal today while RFM continued to move within consolidation range.
MEG seems to be forming a bullish divergence as my trusted technical indicator is pointing down but the price movement is advancing which is also accompanied by high volume.
GMAP looks like it has formed a bullish harami today so I did not sell yet. If the harami is confirmed tomorrow, I will hold. If not, I will sell.
Currently sitting on a 8.28% net loss courtesy of GMAP and 4% net gain courtesy of MEG.
Personal Disclosure
Citiseconline finally went back up last Sunday. Anyway, I finally made some possible trades for this week. Hopefully, funds rotate back now to my side of the fence.
Other stocks worth watching this week are EDC and DGTL.
EDC finally broke its major resistance at 5.60 and it reached its recent high at 5.86 before it was sold down the next day as low as 5.49 before closing up at 5.68. I am more inclined to think that the piercing back below the support is not enough as it only pierced old resistance intraday. The recent candlestick formation also looks bullish enough to warrant a buy. However, the trading range to the next resistance at 6.24 level is too tight for me so I don't think I'll be taking a position here.
DGTL also finally broke out of its recent downtrend which was accompanied by high volume. 10-day MA has also crossed above the 50-day MA. I would try to buy as close to 1.48 as possible.
Another stock that I get asked alot is RFM. I believe that RFM will continue to consolidate in the near term. Breaking 2 with high volume will warrant a buy signal with an immediate target of 2.20. Breaking 2 will also point to 2.85 as a possible target in the intermediate to long term. However, if it still doesn't break 2, I am expecting it to consolidate within the range of 1.80-2.00.
I think I finally found out how PAR-SAR actually works.
I think that's about it for now. Monday, here we go!
Caveat.
Other stocks worth watching this week are EDC and DGTL.
EDC finally broke its major resistance at 5.60 and it reached its recent high at 5.86 before it was sold down the next day as low as 5.49 before closing up at 5.68. I am more inclined to think that the piercing back below the support is not enough as it only pierced old resistance intraday. The recent candlestick formation also looks bullish enough to warrant a buy. However, the trading range to the next resistance at 6.24 level is too tight for me so I don't think I'll be taking a position here.
DGTL also finally broke out of its recent downtrend which was accompanied by high volume. 10-day MA has also crossed above the 50-day MA. I would try to buy as close to 1.48 as possible.
Another stock that I get asked alot is RFM. I believe that RFM will continue to consolidate in the near term. Breaking 2 with high volume will warrant a buy signal with an immediate target of 2.20. Breaking 2 will also point to 2.85 as a possible target in the intermediate to long term. However, if it still doesn't break 2, I am expecting it to consolidate within the range of 1.80-2.00.
I think I finally found out how PAR-SAR actually works.
I think that's about it for now. Monday, here we go!
Caveat.
Philex Mining Corp (PX) Update
10-Year Weekly Chart
MACD is moving towards the zero line but it is still trading beneath the zero line.
DMI reading suggests that the recent trend is still gathering momentum.
10-day moving average is still under the 50-day moving average suggesting downtrend in the intermediate term. Uptrend in the long term is still intact as both moving-averages are trading above the 200-day moving average.
Weekly trend is up.
1-Year Daily Chart
After a year-long down trend, PX finally broke out of it last September 2 with relatively high volume. Breakout points to 14.63 as target, 4.5% away from its recent close at 14 and closing above its 200-day moving average at 13.
It now closed at 14 which is its next psychological resistance after breaking 13. A 1-3% break from it should warrant a buy signal. Breaking out would seem imminent as ROC is still pointing to further advance in the near term.
Major resistance at 16 and 20.
***The stock did reached 13 as I have anticipated before. However, I was expecting it to make a correction before heading back up but in the contrary, it simply consolidated before it started to head back up which I did not look into.
MACD is moving towards the zero line but it is still trading beneath the zero line.
DMI reading suggests that the recent trend is still gathering momentum.
10-day moving average is still under the 50-day moving average suggesting downtrend in the intermediate term. Uptrend in the long term is still intact as both moving-averages are trading above the 200-day moving average.
Weekly trend is up.
1-Year Daily Chart
After a year-long down trend, PX finally broke out of it last September 2 with relatively high volume. Breakout points to 14.63 as target, 4.5% away from its recent close at 14 and closing above its 200-day moving average at 13.
It now closed at 14 which is its next psychological resistance after breaking 13. A 1-3% break from it should warrant a buy signal. Breaking out would seem imminent as ROC is still pointing to further advance in the near term.
Major resistance at 16 and 20.
***The stock did reached 13 as I have anticipated before. However, I was expecting it to make a correction before heading back up but in the contrary, it simply consolidated before it started to head back up which I did not look into.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Atlas Consolidated Mining (AT)
10-Year Weekly Chart
Atlas broke the neckline of its reversed head and shoulder early last week at 12 which was accompanied by exceptionally high volume, pointing at 22.40 as a possible price target. It is now approaching its major resistance at 17 and only 11.63% away from its recent closing at 14.78.
MACD reading is relatively bullish, and DMI reading is also suggesting that current uptrend is relatively strong.
10-day moving average has finally crossed above the 50-day and 200-day moving average confirming the uptrend.
Weekly trend is up.
1-Year Daily Chart
Rate of Change is still pointing up suggesting further advance in the near term.
DMI reading suggests the current trend is relatively strong. Recent new highs are accompanied by heavy volume, confirming the validity of uptrend.
Technical indicators are suggesting that the price is relatively at the peak already in the short term, giving a relatively high risk-low reward if one is to take a position at the current price. However, pullbacks would provide good buying opportunities.
A pullback to 14.42 should provide good entry.
Daily trend is up.
To provide a different point of view:
10-Year Weekly Chart flipped upside-down
Breakdown? Assuming shorting is allowed in our market, will you short this stock with this setup?
Caveat.
Atlas broke the neckline of its reversed head and shoulder early last week at 12 which was accompanied by exceptionally high volume, pointing at 22.40 as a possible price target. It is now approaching its major resistance at 17 and only 11.63% away from its recent closing at 14.78.
MACD reading is relatively bullish, and DMI reading is also suggesting that current uptrend is relatively strong.
10-day moving average has finally crossed above the 50-day and 200-day moving average confirming the uptrend.
Weekly trend is up.
1-Year Daily Chart
Rate of Change is still pointing up suggesting further advance in the near term.
DMI reading suggests the current trend is relatively strong. Recent new highs are accompanied by heavy volume, confirming the validity of uptrend.
Technical indicators are suggesting that the price is relatively at the peak already in the short term, giving a relatively high risk-low reward if one is to take a position at the current price. However, pullbacks would provide good buying opportunities.
A pullback to 14.42 should provide good entry.
Daily trend is up.
To provide a different point of view:
10-Year Weekly Chart flipped upside-down
Breakdown? Assuming shorting is allowed in our market, will you short this stock with this setup?
Caveat.
Rage quit!
Citiseconline is down until now so I can't do anything this weekend. Hopefully they go back up before Monday so I can make plans for next week.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market today closed by 26 points lower from the 4000 level, closing at 3979. It was basically correction time for most stocks today.
GMAP is still holding up at 7.35 with so much volume traded today courtesy of the big block sales by certain brokerage houses. Are they accumulating or distributing? The verdict is on Monday and I am ready to cut!
MEG seems to be encountering strong resistance at 2.40 slightly breaking above it but not enough as the penetration is less than 3% therefore I am expecting it to correct early next week or it will consolidate for the mean time.
I was right that there would be immediate resistance at 13 but I did not expect it to consolidate instead of making a correction. Anyway, it moved up today, slightly penetrating the next resistance at 14 but not enough to merit a buy. I'll observe how this one will go by Monday.
AT also broke its resistance at 14 by more than 3% today. I saw a buy signal yesterday but I did not took it.
I think PX has better risk-reward in comparison with AT so I am more inclined to buy PX instead of AT. I'll see how both go on Monday.
Which one is the faster horse? GMAP is one sick horse for sure.
Month 2 Day 5
Sitting on a 8.90% net paper loss courtesy of GMAP.
Break-even with MEG.
*I am now also trying to add the triple screening to my system. It is somewhat identical to the basic principles of my system. It is somewhat more defined so I might have gotten the idea from the article subconsciously. Anyway, it still can't solve my problem with spiking movements, from breakouts and consolidation. Maybe I am taking it the wrong way, or it simply cannot work well in this current conditions.
**The probable psychology of a candlestick opening lower the middle band and then closing above the upper band is the buying might have been overdone, thus the succeeding session results in profit taking or indecision. I'll post some charts regarding this.
GMAP is still holding up at 7.35 with so much volume traded today courtesy of the big block sales by certain brokerage houses. Are they accumulating or distributing? The verdict is on Monday and I am ready to cut!
MEG seems to be encountering strong resistance at 2.40 slightly breaking above it but not enough as the penetration is less than 3% therefore I am expecting it to correct early next week or it will consolidate for the mean time.
I was right that there would be immediate resistance at 13 but I did not expect it to consolidate instead of making a correction. Anyway, it moved up today, slightly penetrating the next resistance at 14 but not enough to merit a buy. I'll observe how this one will go by Monday.
AT also broke its resistance at 14 by more than 3% today. I saw a buy signal yesterday but I did not took it.
I think PX has better risk-reward in comparison with AT so I am more inclined to buy PX instead of AT. I'll see how both go on Monday.
Which one is the faster horse? GMAP is one sick horse for sure.
Month 2 Day 5
Sitting on a 8.90% net paper loss courtesy of GMAP.
Break-even with MEG.
*I am now also trying to add the triple screening to my system. It is somewhat identical to the basic principles of my system. It is somewhat more defined so I might have gotten the idea from the article subconsciously. Anyway, it still can't solve my problem with spiking movements, from breakouts and consolidation. Maybe I am taking it the wrong way, or it simply cannot work well in this current conditions.
**The probable psychology of a candlestick opening lower the middle band and then closing above the upper band is the buying might have been overdone, thus the succeeding session results in profit taking or indecision. I'll post some charts regarding this.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market decided to climb up again today as it gained another 31.98 points, closing slightly above the new territory at 4005. However, blue chips are left behind as third liners decided to take the reins.
GMAP is struggling as it still closed lower today from the previous day at 7.40. However 7.35 seems to be providing solid support for the mean time. The declining volume with the price decline would appear to me as a bullish indication. I am being bias though so the cut loss point still stands.
MEG continued to climb today contrary to what I was expecting, breaking the huge seller at 2.39 before it was sold down and closing at 2.37. But it's not like I am complaining. I'll be adding more position here once it makes a correction.
After the shooting star that AT formed, it was followed up today with a bullish engulfing, pointing that the 15.62 gap up target valid. FGEN continued to climb today but profit taking ensues, driving the prices down. Immediate support at 13.08.
Month 2 Day 4
Sitting on a 9% paper loss courtesy of GMAP and MEG. Most of the losses are from GMAP as MEG is simply 1 centavo away from break-even.
GMAP is struggling as it still closed lower today from the previous day at 7.40. However 7.35 seems to be providing solid support for the mean time. The declining volume with the price decline would appear to me as a bullish indication. I am being bias though so the cut loss point still stands.
MEG continued to climb today contrary to what I was expecting, breaking the huge seller at 2.39 before it was sold down and closing at 2.37. But it's not like I am complaining. I'll be adding more position here once it makes a correction.
After the shooting star that AT formed, it was followed up today with a bullish engulfing, pointing that the 15.62 gap up target valid. FGEN continued to climb today but profit taking ensues, driving the prices down. Immediate support at 13.08.
Month 2 Day 4
Sitting on a 9% paper loss courtesy of GMAP and MEG. Most of the losses are from GMAP as MEG is simply 1 centavo away from break-even.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Well, looks like the market has finally taking a breather as it closed by only 5 points up from yesterday's session.
I was basically watching GMAP the whole time, as I was waiting for it to break 7.35 and cut loss. Luckily it held at 7.35 so I just held on to my position. If I followed my original trading plan here, I could have gotten in today with minimal risk. Anyway, it closed today with a tweezer bottom so I am expecting it to head back up again. I'll cut instead if it goes the other way around.
MEG didn't do much today as it closed at 2.32, .01 centavo lower from yesterday. I am still expecting it to go lower in the next few days.
AT closed with a very ugly shooting star pattern today. Immediate support at 13.26.
FGEN continued to move up as it made a gap today. I'm expecting it to move up again before making a correction.
Hopefully, my candlestick reading today for both position is correct.
Month 2 Day 3
Sitting on a 12% net paper loss from both positions.
I was basically watching GMAP the whole time, as I was waiting for it to break 7.35 and cut loss. Luckily it held at 7.35 so I just held on to my position. If I followed my original trading plan here, I could have gotten in today with minimal risk. Anyway, it closed today with a tweezer bottom so I am expecting it to head back up again. I'll cut instead if it goes the other way around.
MEG didn't do much today as it closed at 2.32, .01 centavo lower from yesterday. I am still expecting it to go lower in the next few days.
AT closed with a very ugly shooting star pattern today. Immediate support at 13.26.
FGEN continued to move up as it made a gap today. I'm expecting it to move up again before making a correction.
Hopefully, my candlestick reading today for both position is correct.
Month 2 Day 3
Sitting on a 12% net paper loss from both positions.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Megaworld Corporation (MEG)
Here is the 2-year daily chart of MEG
It broke out of 2-year resistance. With the unfilled gap at 2.15, I doubt that it will go back below 2.
Is MEG a buy with this current condition?
Now, testing something I read before, I am also now trying to see it a new perspective:
Assuming that short-selling is allowed in our market, would you short MEG in this condition?
Caveat.
It broke out of 2-year resistance. With the unfilled gap at 2.15, I doubt that it will go back below 2.
Is MEG a buy with this current condition?
Now, testing something I read before, I am also now trying to see it a new perspective:
Assuming that short-selling is allowed in our market, would you short MEG in this condition?
Caveat.
Personal Disclosure
The market finally started to correct today as it closed 4 points lower from yesterday's session at 3968. I'm expecting the market to decline further for another two days minimum (but it could extend to five days) before heading back up again.
GMAP closed 3.87% lower from yesterday's closing, leaving me with -8.26% net. The gap at 7.45-7.48 was closed today. If price continues to hold at this level, I am convinced that this decline is simply a healthy correction. However, if it continues to drop, I am ready to cut loss. This one currently belongs to my expensive mistakes whenever I decide to do something stupid.
MEG continued to advance today closing at 2.33. Latest candlestick looks very ugly though. 2.23 should provide a good re-entry once it corrects. I am also expecting it to correct for another day or two before heading back up again.
If GMAP doesn't move up and continues to consolidate once it established a support, I will still cut loss and add up my position in MEG. GMAP has time to move up until MEG corrects.
AT and FGEN are the best performers today as they gained 13.26% and 13.06% respectively with exceptional volume.
20% per trade in a bull run seems like a piece of cake. Trade execution is probably my current problem.
I think I would be sitting through the entire second month with my current positions as the commission is killing me. I'll try to swing trades once I open an account with Citisec.
Month 2 Day 2
Sitting on a 8.26% paper loss with GMAP and 3% commission loss with MEG.
Way to start my second month!
Trading plan: Sit tight and get ready to cut the losses!
*Candlesticks that opens below the middle bollinger band and closes outside the upper band suggests peak in the immediate future.
*Tweezers seems to be more reliable when they are in the middle of the trend.
GMAP closed 3.87% lower from yesterday's closing, leaving me with -8.26% net. The gap at 7.45-7.48 was closed today. If price continues to hold at this level, I am convinced that this decline is simply a healthy correction. However, if it continues to drop, I am ready to cut loss. This one currently belongs to my expensive mistakes whenever I decide to do something stupid.
MEG continued to advance today closing at 2.33. Latest candlestick looks very ugly though. 2.23 should provide a good re-entry once it corrects. I am also expecting it to correct for another day or two before heading back up again.
If GMAP doesn't move up and continues to consolidate once it established a support, I will still cut loss and add up my position in MEG. GMAP has time to move up until MEG corrects.
AT and FGEN are the best performers today as they gained 13.26% and 13.06% respectively with exceptional volume.
20% per trade in a bull run seems like a piece of cake. Trade execution is probably my current problem.
I think I would be sitting through the entire second month with my current positions as the commission is killing me. I'll try to swing trades once I open an account with Citisec.
Month 2 Day 2
Sitting on a 8.26% paper loss with GMAP and 3% commission loss with MEG.
Way to start my second month!
Trading plan: Sit tight and get ready to cut the losses!
*Candlesticks that opens below the middle bollinger band and closes outside the upper band suggests peak in the immediate future.
*Tweezers seems to be more reliable when they are in the middle of the trend.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Wow, I am out of words. We are still trading in the green zone after ten trading days, up by 70 points closing today at 3972. Before, everybody was expecting to meet a strong resistance at the previous high.
Foreign buyers are still on buying frenzy today so I decided to jump in too(while holding my breath)!
I bought GMAP earlier today at 7.90 but it closed lower at 7.75, netting 1.89% loss today. The reason I bought GMAP today is to satisfy my father's wish to buy it. Technically though, it looks really ugly in the short term in terms of candlesticks and my other technical indicators. The only indicator that's keeping me relaxed with my current position here is its volume. Increasing volume with ascending price movement. How bad can it go? 10-day moving average has also crossed above 200-day moving average confirming the uptrend. It broke out of its major resistance at 7.70 but it is still struggling to hold up so it still might correct in the immediate future but I am expecting it to hold above the gap up before at 7.48.
I also bought MEG at the end of session at 2.31, which I should have bought earlier. I have no recent analysis for MEG here in my new entries but I have been monitoring and analyzing it while I was holding DMC before. Breaking my personal three-year resistance at 2.15 today with exceptional volume is the reason why I bought MEG. It also made a gap up at 2.15 from 2.13 which should have been enough to merit a buy earlier. It should also provide a strong support once it corrects. I am looking at 2.56 as a possible target in the short term.
Another stock I have been monitoring closely is MPI. It's now about to break out from its ten-year(weekly) down trend at 3.90. If it makes a convincing breakout at 3.90, I am expecting it to close its previous gap down with immediate resistance at 4.40. The probability of breaking out is relatively high because of the multiple moving average crossover.
Keeping a tight trailing stop in the current bull run is probably a mistake that I put up in my trading system. Maybe I should loosen up my trailing stops now?
Tight trailing stops would probably work best in a trending mode with normal pacing.
I still haven't figured out how to trade this crazy market!
Day 1, second month of my trading system.
Trading plan: Sit tight!
Foreign buyers are still on buying frenzy today so I decided to jump in too(while holding my breath)!
I bought GMAP earlier today at 7.90 but it closed lower at 7.75, netting 1.89% loss today. The reason I bought GMAP today is to satisfy my father's wish to buy it. Technically though, it looks really ugly in the short term in terms of candlesticks and my other technical indicators. The only indicator that's keeping me relaxed with my current position here is its volume. Increasing volume with ascending price movement. How bad can it go? 10-day moving average has also crossed above 200-day moving average confirming the uptrend. It broke out of its major resistance at 7.70 but it is still struggling to hold up so it still might correct in the immediate future but I am expecting it to hold above the gap up before at 7.48.
I also bought MEG at the end of session at 2.31, which I should have bought earlier. I have no recent analysis for MEG here in my new entries but I have been monitoring and analyzing it while I was holding DMC before. Breaking my personal three-year resistance at 2.15 today with exceptional volume is the reason why I bought MEG. It also made a gap up at 2.15 from 2.13 which should have been enough to merit a buy earlier. It should also provide a strong support once it corrects. I am looking at 2.56 as a possible target in the short term.
Another stock I have been monitoring closely is MPI. It's now about to break out from its ten-year(weekly) down trend at 3.90. If it makes a convincing breakout at 3.90, I am expecting it to close its previous gap down with immediate resistance at 4.40. The probability of breaking out is relatively high because of the multiple moving average crossover.
Keeping a tight trailing stop in the current bull run is probably a mistake that I put up in my trading system. Maybe I should loosen up my trailing stops now?
Tight trailing stops would probably work best in a trending mode with normal pacing.
I still haven't figured out how to trade this crazy market!
Day 1, second month of my trading system.
Trading plan: Sit tight!
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The index broke out of its previous peak at 3873, closing with 97 points up at 3902, stronger than . People say it's officially a bull run now. So maybe this time, I need to find the faster horse :)
My bid at GMAP didn't get hit today after it met strong selling once it reached 8. I probably should have held on to my position in DMC which I sold last Monday at 24.20 as it still went as high as 26.10 before closing at 25.60.
I observed this week that my new trading system is not fit to trade this market behavior. It is only good in trading trending market in normal pacing so I need to figure out how to trade in this new environment.
Second month for the new trading system. I am hoping for a buying opportunity by Monday or Tuesday.
My bid at GMAP didn't get hit today after it met strong selling once it reached 8. I probably should have held on to my position in DMC which I sold last Monday at 24.20 as it still went as high as 26.10 before closing at 25.60.
I observed this week that my new trading system is not fit to trade this market behavior. It is only good in trading trending market in normal pacing so I need to figure out how to trade in this new environment.
Second month for the new trading system. I am hoping for a buying opportunity by Monday or Tuesday.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Asian markets closed in the red zone today and European markets are still trading in the red zone as of this writing. US Futures are also in the red. I wonder how the market will react tomorrow as we still ended up green with 29 points after ALI went back to its normal pricing that sent the market 50 points lower earlier in the session.
Still no trades for today, still waiting for entry points. However, I looked for rotational plays today when my primary trades goes for corrections and I found two possible trades. I will try to study their behavior for the mean time.
BDO continued to trend up for 10 days straight now, gaining 15.80%. I'm surprised by its movement though as I was not expecting it to trend continuously. It might reach 60-62 before correcting back. I am expecting it to consolidate when it corrects.
One-trading day left for the first month of my new trading system.
Still no trades for today, still waiting for entry points. However, I looked for rotational plays today when my primary trades goes for corrections and I found two possible trades. I will try to study their behavior for the mean time.
BDO continued to trend up for 10 days straight now, gaining 15.80%. I'm surprised by its movement though as I was not expecting it to trend continuously. It might reach 60-62 before correcting back. I am expecting it to consolidate when it corrects.
One-trading day left for the first month of my new trading system.
DMCI Holdings (DMC)
Trading Plan
Entry: 23.37 - 22.90 - 22.42
Target: 26.42 - 27.37
Cut loss: 21.84
Gap up at 22 suggests immediate support, pointing at 25.15 as target.
Currently trading at all time high.
Entry: 23.37 - 22.90 - 22.42
Target: 26.42 - 27.37
Cut loss: 21.84
Gap up at 22 suggests immediate support, pointing at 25.15 as target.
Currently trading at all time high.
Metro Pacific Investmenst Corp. (MPI)
Trading plan
Entry: 3.55 - 3.50 - 3.43
Target: 3.94 - 4.06
Cut loss: 3.36
Gap up at 3.62 has been filled. The gap up at this level is possibly an exhaustion gap before correcting.
Gap up at 3.40 suggests immediate support, pointing at 3.82 as target.
Major resistance at 3.80.
Entry: 3.55 - 3.50 - 3.43
Target: 3.94 - 4.06
Cut loss: 3.36
Gap up at 3.62 has been filled. The gap up at this level is possibly an exhaustion gap before correcting.
Gap up at 3.40 suggests immediate support, pointing at 3.82 as target.
Major resistance at 3.80.
GMA Holdings (GMAP)
Initial trading plan
Entry: 6.65 - 7
1% Bounce from entry: 6.71 - 7.07
Break-even: 7.20
Psychological resistance: 7.70 - 8.10
Major resistance: 8.60
Cut loss: 6.40 - 6.76
New trading plan
Entry: 7.30 - 7.08 - 6.93 - 6.76
Target: 8.11 - 8.43
Cut loss: 6.56
Formed a tweezer bottom suggesting an immediate support at 7.30 in the short term.
Gap up support at 6.65, pointing at 8.30 as target.
Entry: 6.65 - 7
1% Bounce from entry: 6.71 - 7.07
Break-even: 7.20
Psychological resistance: 7.70 - 8.10
Major resistance: 8.60
Cut loss: 6.40 - 6.76
New trading plan
Entry: 7.30 - 7.08 - 6.93 - 6.76
Target: 8.11 - 8.43
Cut loss: 6.56
Formed a tweezer bottom suggesting an immediate support at 7.30 in the short term.
Gap up support at 6.65, pointing at 8.30 as target.
Alliance Global Group Inc. (AGI)
Trading Plan
Minor Trend - Short term
Entry points : 7.12 - 6.97 - 6.81
Target: 8.16 - 8.48
Cut loss: 6.65
Intermediate Trend - Medium term
Entry points: 7.06 - 6.88 - 6.70
Target: 8.23 - 8.59
Cut loss: 6.48
Major Trend - Long term
Entry points: 6.79 - 6.52 - 6.25
Target: 8.50 - 9.04
Cut loss: 5.93
Formed a tweezer top suggesting short-term peak.
Gap support at 6.87, pointing at 7.79 as target.
Caveat.
Minor Trend - Short term
Entry points : 7.12 - 6.97 - 6.81
Target: 8.16 - 8.48
Cut loss: 6.65
Intermediate Trend - Medium term
Entry points: 7.06 - 6.88 - 6.70
Target: 8.23 - 8.59
Cut loss: 6.48
Major Trend - Long term
Entry points: 6.79 - 6.52 - 6.25
Target: 8.50 - 9.04
Cut loss: 5.93
Formed a tweezer top suggesting short-term peak.
Gap support at 6.87, pointing at 7.79 as target.
Caveat.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Nothing happened much in today's trading as we were down by 5 points when I left while I was basically waiting for buying opportunities. When I got back, the market closed higher by 31 points courtesy of ALI gaining 10% for the day closing at 18.
GMAP reached my predicted price and it is now starting to correct. DMC began to correct today as the recent ascend was unsustainable. AGI still bounced strongly after being sold down last week and it is now beginning to correct also. I am more inclined to buy AGI though since I already know how it moves.
What I need to do now is to find stocks to rotate my funds with as I have no trades the following week after I liquidate. MEG, FGEN, JFC, and BEL are possible candidates for rotation. However, I am a bit unsure with the trend strength of BEL. We'll see how it goes.
Will write my trading plan this week. Still waiting for entry points.
GMAP reached my predicted price and it is now starting to correct. DMC began to correct today as the recent ascend was unsustainable. AGI still bounced strongly after being sold down last week and it is now beginning to correct also. I am more inclined to buy AGI though since I already know how it moves.
What I need to do now is to find stocks to rotate my funds with as I have no trades the following week after I liquidate. MEG, FGEN, JFC, and BEL are possible candidates for rotation. However, I am a bit unsure with the trend strength of BEL. We'll see how it goes.
Will write my trading plan this week. Still waiting for entry points.
Monday, September 6, 2010
New Trading System
After 14 days of testing my new trading system, I have only gained 38.32% of the initial target(25% of capital). With six-trading days left for my new trading system, I don't think I can find a trade to make up for the 61.68% that I have not gained yet after 14-trading days without putting my trading capital at a high risk as the general market has already climbed so much this past week.
First mistake that I made with my new trading system is I didn't wait for corrections to fully mature by taking up positions prematurely as I have done with MPI as my technical indicator has not confirmed my entry before, thus prolonging my exposure to market forces too long.
Second mistake that I made was not pulling the trigger fast enough. This happened when I took a position in FLI and not selling it when there was a clear sell signal. I could have simply taken another position with lower cost as it fell to 1.15, .04 centavos lower than my original cost. Or I could have added the proceeds of FLI to my recent position in MPI. Holding longer than more than 5-trading days are exposed to missing more profitable opportunities.
The third and last mistake is waiting for too much confirmation which happened to basically all the trades I made with the exception of cutting my losses in FPH.
Another weakness I found out with this trading system is that I have no stocks to rotate one my funds once I close out my positions, leaving me waiting for five-trading days for my current positions to correct.
3 out of the 4 trades came out successful within the 20-trading day limit, with 6 trading days left. I am pretty sure that there's a computation for success rates so I will not compute it as I don't have the formula right now. Gotta check my other notes.
FGEN - 4.83% Net loss - one-trading day
FLI - 6.25% Net gain - eleven-trading days
MPI - 8.20% Net gain - seven-trading days
DMC - 10.50% Net gain - six-trading days
Trading settings:
1. 1-2% bounce from entry price should be enough to warrant a buy. The allocated bounce from entry is there to minimize the risk of the trade going south and cutting loss.
2. Holding time is now back to five to six-trading days, depending on trend strength and momentum but should not last for more than 10-trading days.
3. Never take positions prematurely. Current technical indicator is good in pointing out good entry timing.
4. Find a faster way to pull the trigger in trailing stops.
Also, the technical indicator I am using is very useful in pointing out entries but it is relatively weaker in giving selling signals so I still need another technical indicator that sends off better sell signals. Williams' Percentage Range (%R) might be good but I still need to test it to see if it works in trending positions.
Overall, my new trading system only gained 9.63% of total capital. It's not bad but I am not impressed. I still need to work on pulling the trigger faster once the trailing stops get hit.
First mistake that I made with my new trading system is I didn't wait for corrections to fully mature by taking up positions prematurely as I have done with MPI as my technical indicator has not confirmed my entry before, thus prolonging my exposure to market forces too long.
Second mistake that I made was not pulling the trigger fast enough. This happened when I took a position in FLI and not selling it when there was a clear sell signal. I could have simply taken another position with lower cost as it fell to 1.15, .04 centavos lower than my original cost. Or I could have added the proceeds of FLI to my recent position in MPI. Holding longer than more than 5-trading days are exposed to missing more profitable opportunities.
The third and last mistake is waiting for too much confirmation which happened to basically all the trades I made with the exception of cutting my losses in FPH.
Another weakness I found out with this trading system is that I have no stocks to rotate one my funds once I close out my positions, leaving me waiting for five-trading days for my current positions to correct.
3 out of the 4 trades came out successful within the 20-trading day limit, with 6 trading days left. I am pretty sure that there's a computation for success rates so I will not compute it as I don't have the formula right now. Gotta check my other notes.
FGEN - 4.83% Net loss - one-trading day
FLI - 6.25% Net gain - eleven-trading days
MPI - 8.20% Net gain - seven-trading days
DMC - 10.50% Net gain - six-trading days
Trading settings:
1. 1-2% bounce from entry price should be enough to warrant a buy. The allocated bounce from entry is there to minimize the risk of the trade going south and cutting loss.
2. Holding time is now back to five to six-trading days, depending on trend strength and momentum but should not last for more than 10-trading days.
3. Never take positions prematurely. Current technical indicator is good in pointing out good entry timing.
4. Find a faster way to pull the trigger in trailing stops.
Also, the technical indicator I am using is very useful in pointing out entries but it is relatively weaker in giving selling signals so I still need another technical indicator that sends off better sell signals. Williams' Percentage Range (%R) might be good but I still need to test it to see if it works in trending positions.
Overall, my new trading system only gained 9.63% of total capital. It's not bad but I am not impressed. I still need to work on pulling the trigger faster once the trailing stops get hit.
Personal Disclosure
The market opened strong in today's trading with a high of 3787 but most traders locked in their profits today driving the index lower gaining and closing with 9.4 points only. Today might be the start of the correction as the candlesticks are showing a scary shooting star - possibly evening star in the making. Possible support at 3620. If it does otherwise, the market is running into the danger of overheating.
By mid-session, I decided to take profits and close out my positions in MPI at 3.66 with 8.20% net gain and FLI at 1.30 with 6.25% net gain, as both trailing stop got hit. I could have sold MPI for more but a misunderstanding happened with my broker today as they were seeing 3.71 in the bid but I was seeing 3.69 already so I decided not to sell just yet. When 3.68 bid side was demolished, I decided to sell at market which was 3.66 already as 3.67 was easily sold down. The error cost me 1.10% in that trade, .04 centavos off my trailing stop.
Later in today's session, the support in DMC collapsed steadily, closing at 24.20, the same level I closed my position with a 10.50% net gain.
Overall performance, DMC outperformed all the other stocks I held, taking me by surprise as it has relatively low risk with high reward performance. Performance was also confirmed by the length of holding time vs the profit it gained. DMC gained 10.50% within six-trading days, MPI with 8.20% within seven-trading days, and FLI with 6.25% within eleven trading days.
Most of the stocks that I held closed with bearish patterns. MPI and FLI both closed with bearish engulfing while DMC closed with a shooting star, all are enough to merit a sell signal.
Now that I closed my positions early this week, it's now a waiting game to find possible entries in GMAP, GMA7, PX and in DMC again. I need to write a trading plan for these before the weekends.
By mid-session, I decided to take profits and close out my positions in MPI at 3.66 with 8.20% net gain and FLI at 1.30 with 6.25% net gain, as both trailing stop got hit. I could have sold MPI for more but a misunderstanding happened with my broker today as they were seeing 3.71 in the bid but I was seeing 3.69 already so I decided not to sell just yet. When 3.68 bid side was demolished, I decided to sell at market which was 3.66 already as 3.67 was easily sold down. The error cost me 1.10% in that trade, .04 centavos off my trailing stop.
Later in today's session, the support in DMC collapsed steadily, closing at 24.20, the same level I closed my position with a 10.50% net gain.
Overall performance, DMC outperformed all the other stocks I held, taking me by surprise as it has relatively low risk with high reward performance. Performance was also confirmed by the length of holding time vs the profit it gained. DMC gained 10.50% within six-trading days, MPI with 8.20% within seven-trading days, and FLI with 6.25% within eleven trading days.
Most of the stocks that I held closed with bearish patterns. MPI and FLI both closed with bearish engulfing while DMC closed with a shooting star, all are enough to merit a sell signal.
Now that I closed my positions early this week, it's now a waiting game to find possible entries in GMAP, GMA7, PX and in DMC again. I need to write a trading plan for these before the weekends.
Personal Disclosure and trading plan for this week
DOW closing another +127 points last Friday is still making me bullish. However this might be a sign of impending correction this week. I still believe that the correction might come late this week, possibly on Thursday as Friday was declared as a non-working holiday in recognition of the end of Ramadan. I am looking at 3595 as possible support once the market makes a correction.
Basically, the trading plan for this week is to look for possible exits.
FLI has started to show weakness in the charts. However, it still needs confirmation before taking action. MPI has also shown weakness as shown in its rate of change. Possible exit at 3.82 once weakness surfaces. DMC seems like it lost momentum and it's ready to make a correction, possibly forming the usual rising three methods. This might be the only one I'd keep as it only makes small corrections before moving back up again. All trailing stop are now active, maybe with an exception to DMC. Let's see what happens this week.
PX, GMAP and GMA7 might also be worth looking this week.
Monday!
Basically, the trading plan for this week is to look for possible exits.
FLI has started to show weakness in the charts. However, it still needs confirmation before taking action. MPI has also shown weakness as shown in its rate of change. Possible exit at 3.82 once weakness surfaces. DMC seems like it lost momentum and it's ready to make a correction, possibly forming the usual rising three methods. This might be the only one I'd keep as it only makes small corrections before moving back up again. All trailing stop are now active, maybe with an exception to DMC. Let's see what happens this week.
PX, GMAP and GMA7 might also be worth looking this week.
Monday!
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPI)
It appears that the stock has broken out of its uptrend channel the last week and it is now trading within the gap down that was formed on September 25 last year. It also looks like it's about to test a major resistance at 3.80, with a higher possibility of breaking it as the volume accompanying with the trade last week is relatively high. The MACD crossing above the zero line and the
10-week moving average crossing 50-week moving average also confirms of the further ascend. OBV reading also suggests that the price movement is normal(bullish) as it fluctuates together with the price movement.
Six-month daily chart analysis
Price movement accelerated further after breaking out of its downtrend, confirmed by the crossing-over of the 10 and 20-day moving average over the 200-day moving average which was accompanied by high volume. DMI reading also suggests that the current uptrend is very strong. However, the weakening of the ROC should be a concern as it might be a warning of weakness in the short term.
Major resistances are at 3.80(short term) and 4.70(long-term).
Major support is at 3.62(short term).
Ideally, the stock should reach 3.86 before making a correction and heads back at 3.62.
*UPDATE
Two-Year weekly chart analysis
Broke the resistance at 3.75. Expect to retest 3.75 before moving up again.
Is MPI a buy or sell?
Caveat.
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Scans for next week: GMA Holdings (GMAP)
Broke out of its one-year downtrend last September 3 accompanied by relatively high volume as also confirmed by the MACD line crossing over the zero line. 10-day and 20-day moving averages are still below the 200-day MA suggesting the need of further confirmation before taking position. However, 10-day MA has already crossed over the 20-day MA so it may warrant a confirmation of entry.
The ideal movement of the stock next week is to reach 7.50 before it starts to correct.
Once it makes a correction, expect the price to hold at 7. A bounce off that price level with volume would warrant a confirmation of entry and expect to meet immediate resistance at 7.70.
Major resistances in the short to medium term are 7.70, 8.10 and 8.60. There was also a resistance at 7 but it was taken out in yesterday's session.
The was also a small gap formed last Friday, pointing at 8.24 as a target.
However, if it drops further below 7, it would suggest that the breakout is a failure and it will most likely to resume its downtrend.
Entry: 6.65 - 7
1% Bounce from entry: 6.71 - 7.07
Break-even: 7.20
Psychological resistance: 7.70 - 8.10
Major resistance: 8.60
Cut loss: 6.40 - 6.76
Inverted 2-year chart:
Is it a buy or sell?
Caveat.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Scans for next week: Philex Mining Corp (PX)
Broke out of its one-year downtrend last September 2 as confirmed by the crossing of the MACD line over the zero line which was also accompanied by exceptional volume. However, 10-day and 20-day moving averages are still below the 200-day MA suggesting the need of further confirmation before taking position.
The ideal movement of the stock next week is to reach 13 first before it starts to correct.
Price bouncing off 11 accompanied with volume would suggest a strong buy signal as it would indicate a strong support at the said level, with an immediate resistance at 13.
However, if it drops further below 11, it would suggest that the breakout is a failure and it will most likely to resume its downtrend.
Entry: 11
Psychological resistance: 13 - 14
Major resistance: 16 - 19.50
Caveat.
Personal Disclosure
Even after DOW's relatively weaker closing last night with +50 points, our market still surged up by another 68 points pushing every major stock up. Good thing the big boys continued their buying frenzy today. Hopefully DOW ends up positive again tonight to extend the green fields! I am looking forward to take profits by early next week.
MPI continued to perform very good in today's session gaining another 3.91%, closing at 3.72 as it also made another gap up from yesterday, pointing now at 4.02 as target! This looks very possible if the foreign buying frenzy continues til next week. The previous gap up target at 3.82 might be the next psychological resistance. Psychological resistance at 3.55 and 3.65 are taken out today, while the next psychological resistance at 3.75 was touched but it held strongly as it fended the price off at that level. Once the psychological resistances at 3.75 and 3.82 are taken out, major resistance will be at 4.20. Trailing stop is also adjusted with today's closing. Seven trading days in portfolio netting 9.97% paper gain for the entire holding period.
FLI continued to perform well today as it gained another 3.97% closing at 1.31 with a high of 1.32, accompanied by exceptional volume. Psychological resistance at 1.22 was taken out yesterday while 1.26 and 1.30 are taken out today. The price also touched the next psychological resistance level at 1.32 but it defended the said level strongly. However, once 1.32 is taken out, next psychological resistances will be at 1.40, 1.42 and 1.50 while major resistance levels are at 1.92 and 2.40. Trailing stop is also adjusted with today's closing. Ten trading days in portfolio netting 7% paper gain for the entire holding period.
DMC stopped being a disappointment today as it played some catching up in today's session as it gained 6.42% closing at 23.20 that also made a small gap up from yesterday's session that was accompanied by exceptional volume. The small gap up points at 24.15 as target. It is also now trading at it's all-time high at 23.20. Trailing stop is now active. The previous high at 22.05 acts as the psychological support. Five-trading days in portfolio netting 5.94% for the entire holding period.
MEG didn't lagged as much in comparison to DMC as it gained another 3% in today's session filling the previous gap down and breaking the immediate psychological resistance at 2 and 2.04, closing above both at 2.05. Next psychological resistance is at 2.24, 2.40, 2.68, 2.88 and 3.20 respectively and major resistance at 3.56.
Five trading days in comparison with DMC netting 6.06% for the current period, slightly higher by 0.12%.
DMC didn't perform as bad as I thought after all.
Stocks that broke out of their downtrend are GMA7, GMAP, and PX. They might be worth a look.
Standing at 12.41% gain today of the target courtesy of AGI. 7-trading days left to reach the target
9.97% net paper gain in MPI
7.07% net paper gain in FLI
5.94% net paper gain in DMC
Still sitting tight! I am looking for windows to sell next week though.
MPI continued to perform very good in today's session gaining another 3.91%, closing at 3.72 as it also made another gap up from yesterday, pointing now at 4.02 as target! This looks very possible if the foreign buying frenzy continues til next week. The previous gap up target at 3.82 might be the next psychological resistance. Psychological resistance at 3.55 and 3.65 are taken out today, while the next psychological resistance at 3.75 was touched but it held strongly as it fended the price off at that level. Once the psychological resistances at 3.75 and 3.82 are taken out, major resistance will be at 4.20. Trailing stop is also adjusted with today's closing. Seven trading days in portfolio netting 9.97% paper gain for the entire holding period.
FLI continued to perform well today as it gained another 3.97% closing at 1.31 with a high of 1.32, accompanied by exceptional volume. Psychological resistance at 1.22 was taken out yesterday while 1.26 and 1.30 are taken out today. The price also touched the next psychological resistance level at 1.32 but it defended the said level strongly. However, once 1.32 is taken out, next psychological resistances will be at 1.40, 1.42 and 1.50 while major resistance levels are at 1.92 and 2.40. Trailing stop is also adjusted with today's closing. Ten trading days in portfolio netting 7% paper gain for the entire holding period.
DMC stopped being a disappointment today as it played some catching up in today's session as it gained 6.42% closing at 23.20 that also made a small gap up from yesterday's session that was accompanied by exceptional volume. The small gap up points at 24.15 as target. It is also now trading at it's all-time high at 23.20. Trailing stop is now active. The previous high at 22.05 acts as the psychological support. Five-trading days in portfolio netting 5.94% for the entire holding period.
MEG didn't lagged as much in comparison to DMC as it gained another 3% in today's session filling the previous gap down and breaking the immediate psychological resistance at 2 and 2.04, closing above both at 2.05. Next psychological resistance is at 2.24, 2.40, 2.68, 2.88 and 3.20 respectively and major resistance at 3.56.
Five trading days in comparison with DMC netting 6.06% for the current period, slightly higher by 0.12%.
DMC didn't perform as bad as I thought after all.
Stocks that broke out of their downtrend are GMA7, GMAP, and PX. They might be worth a look.
Standing at 12.41% gain today of the target courtesy of AGI. 7-trading days left to reach the target
9.97% net paper gain in MPI
7.07% net paper gain in FLI
5.94% net paper gain in DMC
Still sitting tight! I am looking for windows to sell next week though.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Personal Disclosure
DOW's closing up by 254 points or 2.54% last night gave a big push to our market today as most of the stocks advanced and the market itself made a gap up! Hopefully, DOW is up again tonight so the big boys won't take profits tomorrow just yet~ Extend the green fields til next week!
MPI is the best performer in my portfolio right now as it gained another 3.47% today closing at 3.58, giving me 6% net gain since I bought it. Moving up my trailing stop again. The psychological resistance at 3.55 was taken out today but the next psychological resistance held back further price movement. Next immediate psychological resistance is at 3.65, next is at 3.70. The gap up made yesterday also points at 3.82 at a target in the short term. Next major resistance is at 4.20. Six-trading days in portfolio.
FLI also performed very well today as it also made a gap up from yesterday's session, pointing at 1.38 as a target that it needs to take out. The gap today at 1.20 should also act as support once it corrects again. This one is another portfolio performer today as it already nets me a 3.33% gain already for the entire holding period. Trailing stop is now active. Nine-trading days in portfolio.
DMC is a disappointment as it only gained a measly 1.40% at 21.80, not even break-even with costs! Not to mention poor performance in comparison with this current run-up. Four-trading days in portfolio.
MEG also performed very well today as it gained 5.85% closing at 1.99, netting a 6.90% gain in four-trading days in comparison with DMC and outperforming it. It even made a gap up from yesterday's session at 1.94, pointing at 2.13 as a target.
BDO still continued to move up further and forming a gap in today's session that points at 57.25 as target.
I will try to sell DMC tomorrow or maybe early to mid-week by next week at break-even or hopefully even for a small gain. I'm looking forward to taking positions in MEG or BDO once they make a correction.
AGI is also looking good in the mean time as it rebounded strongly after being sold down. PIP is also looking good as it finally broke ouf of it's downtrend. Theses two might be worth to looking at again.
Standing at 12.41% gain today of the target courtesy of AGI. 8-trading days left to reach the target.
8.81% paper gain in MPI (6.02% net gain).
5.88% paper gain in FLI (3.33% net gain).
2.34% paper gain in DMC (0.46% net loss).
Still sitting tight!
MPI is the best performer in my portfolio right now as it gained another 3.47% today closing at 3.58, giving me 6% net gain since I bought it. Moving up my trailing stop again. The psychological resistance at 3.55 was taken out today but the next psychological resistance held back further price movement. Next immediate psychological resistance is at 3.65, next is at 3.70. The gap up made yesterday also points at 3.82 at a target in the short term. Next major resistance is at 4.20. Six-trading days in portfolio.
FLI also performed very well today as it also made a gap up from yesterday's session, pointing at 1.38 as a target that it needs to take out. The gap today at 1.20 should also act as support once it corrects again. This one is another portfolio performer today as it already nets me a 3.33% gain already for the entire holding period. Trailing stop is now active. Nine-trading days in portfolio.
DMC is a disappointment as it only gained a measly 1.40% at 21.80, not even break-even with costs! Not to mention poor performance in comparison with this current run-up. Four-trading days in portfolio.
MEG also performed very well today as it gained 5.85% closing at 1.99, netting a 6.90% gain in four-trading days in comparison with DMC and outperforming it. It even made a gap up from yesterday's session at 1.94, pointing at 2.13 as a target.
BDO still continued to move up further and forming a gap in today's session that points at 57.25 as target.
I will try to sell DMC tomorrow or maybe early to mid-week by next week at break-even or hopefully even for a small gain. I'm looking forward to taking positions in MEG or BDO once they make a correction.
AGI is also looking good in the mean time as it rebounded strongly after being sold down. PIP is also looking good as it finally broke ouf of it's downtrend. Theses two might be worth to looking at again.
Standing at 12.41% gain today of the target courtesy of AGI. 8-trading days left to reach the target.
8.81% paper gain in MPI (6.02% net gain).
5.88% paper gain in FLI (3.33% net gain).
2.34% paper gain in DMC (0.46% net loss).
Still sitting tight!
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market closed 27 points higher despite DOW's flat closing by +5 points. All's well and green this time. Hopefully the green grass lasts till next week.
MPI closed at 3.46 and still looking strong netting me a gain of 2.29% today! I'm putting on my trailing stop active now. It also gaped up from yesterday's session pointing at 3.82 as target. Psychological resistances are at 3.55, 3.60, 3.65 and 3.75,while major resistance is at 4.20. Five-trading days in portfolio.
FLI is slowly building up strength again although I am still 0.01 centavos loss here. Nothing really exciting today as volume turnover is relatively low. Eight-trading days in portfolio.
DMC also showed positive movements today as it closed 0.70% higher today although the volume turnover is relatively low so I am still feeling uneasy with my position right now. I am looking for a easy break-even here to move my funds to another stock position with relatively more active price movement. Break-even at 21.96. However if it starts to have a more active price movements, I will keep my position here.
Three-trading days in portfolio.
MEG, in comparison to DMC, closed 1% higher at 1.88, bouncing from its recent low at 1.84. Three-trading days in comparison to DMC.
Price movement of BDO is definitely accelerating as it continued to move up in today's session.
Standing at 12.41% gain today of the target courtesy of AGI. 9-trading days left to reach the target.
5.16% paper gain in MPI.
0.08% paper loss in FLI.
0.07% paper gain in DMC.
Sitting back and sitting tight this week.
MPI closed at 3.46 and still looking strong netting me a gain of 2.29% today! I'm putting on my trailing stop active now. It also gaped up from yesterday's session pointing at 3.82 as target. Psychological resistances are at 3.55, 3.60, 3.65 and 3.75,while major resistance is at 4.20. Five-trading days in portfolio.
FLI is slowly building up strength again although I am still 0.01 centavos loss here. Nothing really exciting today as volume turnover is relatively low. Eight-trading days in portfolio.
DMC also showed positive movements today as it closed 0.70% higher today although the volume turnover is relatively low so I am still feeling uneasy with my position right now. I am looking for a easy break-even here to move my funds to another stock position with relatively more active price movement. Break-even at 21.96. However if it starts to have a more active price movements, I will keep my position here.
Three-trading days in portfolio.
MEG, in comparison to DMC, closed 1% higher at 1.88, bouncing from its recent low at 1.84. Three-trading days in comparison to DMC.
Price movement of BDO is definitely accelerating as it continued to move up in today's session.
Standing at 12.41% gain today of the target courtesy of AGI. 9-trading days left to reach the target.
5.16% paper gain in MPI.
0.08% paper loss in FLI.
0.07% paper gain in DMC.
Sitting back and sitting tight this week.