American and european markets are up by more than 1% as of this writing.
Are we gonna get some?
Or are we going to be outside of the kulambo this time?
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Stock selection
Here are the stocks that I am currently watching:
5-minute chart - six days:
There are four stocks that went up from the starting point namely DMC, AGI, MEG and RFM which stayed neutral for the first few days before catching up with the first three. DMC and MEG just started to move up again in this time frame while AGI started to decline.
The other two stocks went down from the starting point namely AEV and AT while AP still remained flat.
The divergence among the stocks is probably a sign of potential for rotational plays.
The flattening of AP is probably a good sign for positioning.
Let's see how they all go by next week to see if I am correct in my assumptions.
Now, looking at their daily chart - six months:
It seems that RFM outperformed every stock on my list with only DMC catching up with it lately, all thanks to that two weeks or so consolidation.
AP is under-performing amongst the stock selection together with AT. Let's see how they perform this month and see if I am right on betting on AP.
Holding Companies:
Here is a possible rotational play for swing trading as there seems to be a slight divergence with AEV and AGI. Meanwhile, DMC is outperforming both.
Other Sectors:
Here is a possible rotational play for swing trading as there seems to be a slight divergence lately with AT and MEG. Meanwhile, AP is currently underperforming from both stocks although it still trending up but at a relatively slower pacing.
There's nothing to compare with RFM as it outperformed every other stock on the list.
Conclusion:
Swing trading rotation:
AEV-AGI
AT-MEG
Position trading:
AP: moderately conservative, swing-trading would be relatively unproductive as it doesn't seem to decline significantly during corrections. It seems that implementing a buy and hold strategy is best.
DMC: moderately aggressive, swing-trading would be slightly unproductive as cost seems to be only slightly lower from the swings that it produces during its corrections. It seems that implementing a buy and hold strategy is best.
RFM: aggressive and slightly speculative. Swing-trading would be relatively productive as it declines relatively during corrections which is more than enough to cover costs.
*IF AP - the underperforming stock - catches up with RFM and DMC, that would be more than 60% potential upside.
Hope I'm right in this.
5-minute chart - six days:
There are four stocks that went up from the starting point namely DMC, AGI, MEG and RFM which stayed neutral for the first few days before catching up with the first three. DMC and MEG just started to move up again in this time frame while AGI started to decline.
The other two stocks went down from the starting point namely AEV and AT while AP still remained flat.
The divergence among the stocks is probably a sign of potential for rotational plays.
The flattening of AP is probably a good sign for positioning.
Let's see how they all go by next week to see if I am correct in my assumptions.
Now, looking at their daily chart - six months:
It seems that RFM outperformed every stock on my list with only DMC catching up with it lately, all thanks to that two weeks or so consolidation.
AP is under-performing amongst the stock selection together with AT. Let's see how they perform this month and see if I am right on betting on AP.
Holding Companies:
Here is a possible rotational play for swing trading as there seems to be a slight divergence with AEV and AGI. Meanwhile, DMC is outperforming both.
Other Sectors:
Here is a possible rotational play for swing trading as there seems to be a slight divergence lately with AT and MEG. Meanwhile, AP is currently underperforming from both stocks although it still trending up but at a relatively slower pacing.
There's nothing to compare with RFM as it outperformed every other stock on the list.
Conclusion:
Swing trading rotation:
AEV-AGI
AT-MEG
Position trading:
AP: moderately conservative, swing-trading would be relatively unproductive as it doesn't seem to decline significantly during corrections. It seems that implementing a buy and hold strategy is best.
DMC: moderately aggressive, swing-trading would be slightly unproductive as cost seems to be only slightly lower from the swings that it produces during its corrections. It seems that implementing a buy and hold strategy is best.
RFM: aggressive and slightly speculative. Swing-trading would be relatively productive as it declines relatively during corrections which is more than enough to cover costs.
*IF AP - the underperforming stock - catches up with RFM and DMC, that would be more than 60% potential upside.
Hope I'm right in this.
Personal Disclosure: Being wrong and right at the same time.
The market inched another 15.44 points today, closing at 4397 - 0.35% higher from yesterday's session. There could be one more possible movement to the upside before profit taking occurs as being suggested by the signal from MACD. Rate of change also seems relatively toppish at the moment.
AP continued its corrective consolidation today, closing at 28.35, 1.43% higher from yesterday's session. Rate of change has finally turned up suggesting the upward bias of the spinning top candle that formed today. Price advancement is very possible by tomorrow or early next week at worst.
Personal target for AP(initial): P35
DMC continued to advance today by 1.52%, closing at 39.95. Looking at the 5-minute chart, it would seem that the best buying window for this is when it is consolidating. Rate of change has already turn up again suggesting price advances in the short term although it already half-way near its previous peak.
The buy signal that I was talking about yesterday was confirmed today as it closed strongly today at 34.40, up by 2.08%. Rate of change has also continued to increase today, confirming strongly the buy signal that it gave yesterday, also suggesting the start of price advances again in the short term.
With that being said about DMC and AEV, I decided to sell DMC at 39.40 during the middle of the trading session and bought AEV at 34.10. The reason why I dropped DMC is that I believe that it is only capable of gaining another 5% or so in the short term in comparison with what's AEV could gain -in my belief- in the said time frame. I was hoping for DMC to move up significantly today so I could sell it just a bit higher but it was simply range trading the entire session within 39.35 to 39.40 range.
After I sold DMC, I bought AEV immediately although the timing is slightly off as I was hoping for a better timing. I was looking at its 5-minute chart hoping to time it correctly but I was feeling uneasy that it might go up suddenly so I posted a buy at 34.20. Luckily, my broker was acting slower today that it fell at 34.10 before my posting was done so I was done at that price. The 5-minute chart was suggesting a drop to 34 and lower is imminent but emotions got a better hold of me so there. That's what happens when emotions get in the way.
Anyway, buying AEV today was deemed correct by the market as it showed profit right after I bought it.
My selling of DMC is probably wrong as it continued to advance further after I sold it. However, the possibility that the buyer, who bought up DMC in the last minutes of trading, is wrong. Verdict by tomorrow.
AT still looks attractive to me but no more available funds. That's just sad.
Could it also be possible that RFM has already formed a short term peak at 2.12? Please make a corrective-consolidation for the mean time so I can buy you.
A new addition in my trading system seems to be working very well as a sell signal. I still haven't back-tested it yet but it is showing progress in the mean time - specially in this slightly trending-sideways-to-up market movement. Didn't use it on DMC though.
Sold DMC at 39.40 with 8.56% net gain on the seventh day of holding it.
Bought AEV at 34.10, closed at 34.40 (+0.0088%).
AP is currently up by 4.73% within ten-trading days. Doubled my previous position.
AP continued its corrective consolidation today, closing at 28.35, 1.43% higher from yesterday's session. Rate of change has finally turned up suggesting the upward bias of the spinning top candle that formed today. Price advancement is very possible by tomorrow or early next week at worst.
Personal target for AP(initial): P35
DMC continued to advance today by 1.52%, closing at 39.95. Looking at the 5-minute chart, it would seem that the best buying window for this is when it is consolidating. Rate of change has already turn up again suggesting price advances in the short term although it already half-way near its previous peak.
The buy signal that I was talking about yesterday was confirmed today as it closed strongly today at 34.40, up by 2.08%. Rate of change has also continued to increase today, confirming strongly the buy signal that it gave yesterday, also suggesting the start of price advances again in the short term.
With that being said about DMC and AEV, I decided to sell DMC at 39.40 during the middle of the trading session and bought AEV at 34.10. The reason why I dropped DMC is that I believe that it is only capable of gaining another 5% or so in the short term in comparison with what's AEV could gain -in my belief- in the said time frame. I was hoping for DMC to move up significantly today so I could sell it just a bit higher but it was simply range trading the entire session within 39.35 to 39.40 range.
After I sold DMC, I bought AEV immediately although the timing is slightly off as I was hoping for a better timing. I was looking at its 5-minute chart hoping to time it correctly but I was feeling uneasy that it might go up suddenly so I posted a buy at 34.20. Luckily, my broker was acting slower today that it fell at 34.10 before my posting was done so I was done at that price. The 5-minute chart was suggesting a drop to 34 and lower is imminent but emotions got a better hold of me so there. That's what happens when emotions get in the way.
Anyway, buying AEV today was deemed correct by the market as it showed profit right after I bought it.
My selling of DMC is probably wrong as it continued to advance further after I sold it. However, the possibility that the buyer, who bought up DMC in the last minutes of trading, is wrong. Verdict by tomorrow.
AT still looks attractive to me but no more available funds. That's just sad.
Could it also be possible that RFM has already formed a short term peak at 2.12? Please make a corrective-consolidation for the mean time so I can buy you.
A new addition in my trading system seems to be working very well as a sell signal. I still haven't back-tested it yet but it is showing progress in the mean time - specially in this slightly trending-sideways-to-up market movement. Didn't use it on DMC though.
Sold DMC at 39.40 with 8.56% net gain on the seventh day of holding it.
Bought AEV at 34.10, closed at 34.40 (+0.0088%).
AP is currently up by 4.73% within ten-trading days. Doubled my previous position.