After 14 days of testing my new trading system, I have only gained 38.32% of the initial target(25% of capital). With six-trading days left for my new trading system, I don't think I can find a trade to make up for the 61.68% that I have not gained yet after 14-trading days without putting my trading capital at a high risk as the general market has already climbed so much this past week.
First mistake that I made with my new trading system is I didn't wait for corrections to fully mature by taking up positions prematurely as I have done with MPI as my technical indicator has not confirmed my entry before, thus prolonging my exposure to market forces too long.
Second mistake that I made was not pulling the trigger fast enough. This happened when I took a position in FLI and not selling it when there was a clear sell signal. I could have simply taken another position with lower cost as it fell to 1.15, .04 centavos lower than my original cost. Or I could have added the proceeds of FLI to my recent position in MPI. Holding longer than more than 5-trading days are exposed to missing more profitable opportunities.
The third and last mistake is waiting for too much confirmation which happened to basically all the trades I made with the exception of cutting my losses in FPH.
Another weakness I found out with this trading system is that I have no stocks to rotate one my funds once I close out my positions, leaving me waiting for five-trading days for my current positions to correct.
3 out of the 4 trades came out successful within the 20-trading day limit, with 6 trading days left. I am pretty sure that there's a computation for success rates so I will not compute it as I don't have the formula right now. Gotta check my other notes.
FGEN - 4.83% Net loss - one-trading day
FLI - 6.25% Net gain - eleven-trading days
MPI - 8.20% Net gain - seven-trading days
DMC - 10.50% Net gain - six-trading days
Trading settings:
1. 1-2% bounce from entry price should be enough to warrant a buy. The allocated bounce from entry is there to minimize the risk of the trade going south and cutting loss.
2. Holding time is now back to five to six-trading days, depending on trend strength and momentum but should not last for more than 10-trading days.
3. Never take positions prematurely. Current technical indicator is good in pointing out good entry timing.
4. Find a faster way to pull the trigger in trailing stops.
Also, the technical indicator I am using is very useful in pointing out entries but it is relatively weaker in giving selling signals so I still need another technical indicator that sends off better sell signals. Williams' Percentage Range (%R) might be good but I still need to test it to see if it works in trending positions.
Overall, my new trading system only gained 9.63% of total capital. It's not bad but I am not impressed. I still need to work on pulling the trigger faster once the trailing stops get hit.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market opened strong in today's trading with a high of 3787 but most traders locked in their profits today driving the index lower gaining and closing with 9.4 points only. Today might be the start of the correction as the candlesticks are showing a scary shooting star - possibly evening star in the making. Possible support at 3620. If it does otherwise, the market is running into the danger of overheating.
By mid-session, I decided to take profits and close out my positions in MPI at 3.66 with 8.20% net gain and FLI at 1.30 with 6.25% net gain, as both trailing stop got hit. I could have sold MPI for more but a misunderstanding happened with my broker today as they were seeing 3.71 in the bid but I was seeing 3.69 already so I decided not to sell just yet. When 3.68 bid side was demolished, I decided to sell at market which was 3.66 already as 3.67 was easily sold down. The error cost me 1.10% in that trade, .04 centavos off my trailing stop.
Later in today's session, the support in DMC collapsed steadily, closing at 24.20, the same level I closed my position with a 10.50% net gain.
Overall performance, DMC outperformed all the other stocks I held, taking me by surprise as it has relatively low risk with high reward performance. Performance was also confirmed by the length of holding time vs the profit it gained. DMC gained 10.50% within six-trading days, MPI with 8.20% within seven-trading days, and FLI with 6.25% within eleven trading days.
Most of the stocks that I held closed with bearish patterns. MPI and FLI both closed with bearish engulfing while DMC closed with a shooting star, all are enough to merit a sell signal.
Now that I closed my positions early this week, it's now a waiting game to find possible entries in GMAP, GMA7, PX and in DMC again. I need to write a trading plan for these before the weekends.
By mid-session, I decided to take profits and close out my positions in MPI at 3.66 with 8.20% net gain and FLI at 1.30 with 6.25% net gain, as both trailing stop got hit. I could have sold MPI for more but a misunderstanding happened with my broker today as they were seeing 3.71 in the bid but I was seeing 3.69 already so I decided not to sell just yet. When 3.68 bid side was demolished, I decided to sell at market which was 3.66 already as 3.67 was easily sold down. The error cost me 1.10% in that trade, .04 centavos off my trailing stop.
Later in today's session, the support in DMC collapsed steadily, closing at 24.20, the same level I closed my position with a 10.50% net gain.
Overall performance, DMC outperformed all the other stocks I held, taking me by surprise as it has relatively low risk with high reward performance. Performance was also confirmed by the length of holding time vs the profit it gained. DMC gained 10.50% within six-trading days, MPI with 8.20% within seven-trading days, and FLI with 6.25% within eleven trading days.
Most of the stocks that I held closed with bearish patterns. MPI and FLI both closed with bearish engulfing while DMC closed with a shooting star, all are enough to merit a sell signal.
Now that I closed my positions early this week, it's now a waiting game to find possible entries in GMAP, GMA7, PX and in DMC again. I need to write a trading plan for these before the weekends.
Personal Disclosure and trading plan for this week
DOW closing another +127 points last Friday is still making me bullish. However this might be a sign of impending correction this week. I still believe that the correction might come late this week, possibly on Thursday as Friday was declared as a non-working holiday in recognition of the end of Ramadan. I am looking at 3595 as possible support once the market makes a correction.
Basically, the trading plan for this week is to look for possible exits.
FLI has started to show weakness in the charts. However, it still needs confirmation before taking action. MPI has also shown weakness as shown in its rate of change. Possible exit at 3.82 once weakness surfaces. DMC seems like it lost momentum and it's ready to make a correction, possibly forming the usual rising three methods. This might be the only one I'd keep as it only makes small corrections before moving back up again. All trailing stop are now active, maybe with an exception to DMC. Let's see what happens this week.
PX, GMAP and GMA7 might also be worth looking this week.
Monday!
Basically, the trading plan for this week is to look for possible exits.
FLI has started to show weakness in the charts. However, it still needs confirmation before taking action. MPI has also shown weakness as shown in its rate of change. Possible exit at 3.82 once weakness surfaces. DMC seems like it lost momentum and it's ready to make a correction, possibly forming the usual rising three methods. This might be the only one I'd keep as it only makes small corrections before moving back up again. All trailing stop are now active, maybe with an exception to DMC. Let's see what happens this week.
PX, GMAP and GMA7 might also be worth looking this week.
Monday!