Personal Disclosure

Despite of the positive movements of DJIA last Friday, it still took a beating on Monday. Good thing that the PSEi didn't follow suit and it still closed up by 7 points in today's session.

FLI continues to disappoint me closing 3.36% lower from Friday's session. However, positive signs are showing up on the charts so I am keeping my fingers crossed for the mean time. Ready to cut my losses. 7-trading days in portfolio.

MPI closed strongly today with a 3.37% gain from the previous session accompanied by outstanding volume. Now sitting on a 2.43% paper gain. 4-trading days in portfolio.

DMC held up strongly today closing unchanged from last Friday's closing at 21.35. 2-trading days in portfolio.

MEG closed lower by 1.59% at 1.86 in today's session but still holding up above its immediate support at 1.82. 2-trading days in comparison to DMC.

AGI is showing some strength now as I believe the sell down last week was over done. However, it still needs confirmation to warrant an entry this week.

I have been reading a lot and I was asking ellioticians before for price movements and targets. One thing I observed from their forecasts are they are relatively off the target by almost 20% most of the time. Anyway, I think it's better stick to my guns now as they are showing better accuracy in comparison to other people's guns.

Standing at 12.41% gain today of the target courtesy of AGI. 10-trading days left to reach the target.

2.43% paper gain in MPI.
3.36% paper loss in FLI.
DMC is currently unchanged.

Trading plan for this week: Sit back and sit tight.

Personal Disclosure

The only trade I did last week that I am still uncomfortable up till now is DMC. Something with it doesn't feel right with me. BDO is looking good. I'm going to look out for pullbacks on this one.

Crappy long weekend. No trading for today because of the holiday.

Scans

AGI: Smart money seems they are still in. However, the uptrend got weaker during the sell down this week. Gap down target of 6.35 was exceeded this week, closing at 6.33. Next possible support at 6.15 and resistance at 6.95. Might consolidate for a while. Uptrend is still intact.

BDO: Smart money seems to be flowing back in again. However, price movement still seems rather slow for now. Uptrend is now starting to get stronger. I'll be putting special attention here this week.

EDC: Seems to be holding at 4.60. Buy if it continues to hold at 4.60 and if it bounces off strongly from that level. Short term target is 5.05. Wait for entry confirmation. Smart money is also following price movement however, trend strength got relatively weaker.

MBT: Smart money seems to be following price movement. Trend strength got relatively weaker from the previous week. Possible support at 63.50. Wait for entry confirmation.

PX: Smart money just started flowing back in. Immediate resistance at 10.50 was also taken out this week after making a gap from the previous session.

Personal Disclosure

Just when you thought that the market will end up in green, the market still closed in red territory in Friday's session with - 36.91 points . The sell down from Tuesday proves the market this week is impossible to read. Hopefully, the market becomes more predictable by next week.

Just when I thought that the smoke has cleared, FLI still met strong selling pressure in Friday's session. However, it held right at its current support at 1.15 and bounced right off the bat. The only thing that would change its current trend is if it is sold down to 1.08 levels by Tuesday next week and I'll be ready to cut loss if that happens. My position in FLI closed 0.8% lower this week. 6-trading day in portfolio.

I am now confident and comfortable to what MPI did in Friday's session even though my position here closed 0.9% lower this week. This is probably the best time to get into position instead of rushing in last Wednesday. 3-trading day in portfolio.

MEG strongly held at its support at 1.88. It is probably the best price to get into position. However, it needs to close higher than 1.98 on Tuesday's session to confirm the uptrend. 1-trading day in comparison with DMC.

Surprisingly DMC held at its current levels leaving me with a measly 0.02% gain for the week! DMC needs to close above 21.60 to sustain its uptrend. 1-trading day in portfolio. Previous post should be 21.50 that left me with 1% gain.

I might look into other stocks that could be posing more possible upside in the shorter time frame i.e., 5 trading days.

It is rather hard to predict the market movement for next week as the information I have at hand seems incorrect. However, my data on DJIA seems alright so I am going to write my take on it. DJIA is more likely to go up further next week as to what it is showing in its chart. Futures are also up. Asia with the exception of (Hang Seng) and Europe is also up so I am hoping for a green field on our side next week. I am a little disappointed that we can't ride the waves when Monday comes as it is an official holiday(no trading). Hopefully DOW continues to move up the entire week.

Standing at 12.41% gain today of the target. I will not include the paper gains this time. 12.41% gain of the target is from AGI. Three weeks more to reach the target.

0.8% paper loss in FLI
0.9% paper loss in MPI
0.2% paper gain in DMC

Trade the plan: Watch out for cut loss exits, let the profits run. DON'T read anything other than the ticker when trading.

Personal Disclosure

Everything is green today! The market is up by 41.43 points, just 5 points below the drop last Tuesday.

These are the times that I am glad I am reading this indicators wrong. Every position in my portfolio are green today.

FLI did what it usually do, now pointing at 1.38 this time and it is now 5-trading day old with 1 centavo gain. It looks like it is going to continue climb up tomorrow. No use crying over spilled milk now.

MPI gained 1.15% today. However, it is showing indecision right now so I'll hold on to my position for the mean time until I am proven wrong. It might re-test its support at 3.25 before heading back up. Holding time is now 2 days.

MEG rebounded strongly today and looking good. Entry would have been today if I didn't took position in DMC.

I took a position today in DMC, closing at 20.50 today leaving me with a 1% gain and it looks like it will continue to climb up tomorrow.

I'm going to count MEG's holding time too to compare the return with DMC.

Standing at 12.41% gain today of the 25% target. I will not include the paper gains this time. 12.41% gain of the 25% target is from AGI.

0.08% paper gain in FLI
0.09% paper gain in DMC
1.15% paper gain in MPI

Sticking now to the plan: Let the profits grow now.

Personal Disclosure

I didn't get to observe today's session as I've attended some personal matters today. I'm glad I was wrong with my market prediction for today. Looks like the market is just going to consolidate now rather than make a correction.

I am still dismayed with my position small position in FLI as it is now down 3.36%. How did I fail so badly on that clear cut signal. However, if it holds at its current level, it is still in the green zone. The trend that will follow would be relatively weak this time though.

MPI also fell by 0.9% today and it looks like it will continue to decline tomorrow. Hopefully, it holds at 3.25 or above. I probably should have waited for the confirmation before getting in. Not trading the plan again.

However, despite of the bad calls I made with the MPI and FLI, it was the right decision to simply observe MEG and AGI. MEG continued to decline today but it is still in the green zone. However, AGI fell to the red zone today so I am removing it from the list. I'll now put DMC in my list. I'll be looking for a confirmation of entry tomorrow.

ALI went back up to its previous trading levels. However, it still looks rather weak right now.

LPZ also looks very week right now. Hopefully, it reaches my entry point before the week ends.

If MEG bounces from 1.85, it will be a confirmation of entry.

Standing at 12.41% gain today of the 25% target.
3.36% paper loss in FLI
0.9% paper loss in MPI

Lesson for today: Idea is like a virus. Stick to the plan.

Personal Disclosure

The market today was down 44 points by 12 p.m. but a huge transaction from ALI, sold down to 14 by 12:01 - 15.25% decline, further dragged the index down by 88 points to 3530. 5 points away from my personal support! Next major support should hold at 3480 or above to maintain the current uptrend.

Bought MPI today at 3.29 after bouncing from 3.25 which is its previous resistance, closing at 3.30 with 1 centavo gain.

AGI continued to decline beyond my initial entry so I decided to watch it for the mean time. Tomorrow will confirm if I'll take a position here again.

MEG seems it is going to decline further this week before reaching my entry price. I am just concerned with today's gap down as it is accompanied by high volume but I am more inclined in taking a position here. I'll further observe its movement tomorrow before taking a position here.

LPZ seems to be holding up at current levels. However, the double top at 5.45-5.47 is worrying me so I am really sure to take a position here.

I am also disappointed with FLI as I was right in predicting its move today. I should have taken the 2% and moved to a better position instead. From the looks of it, it is still poised to go a little further before bouncing up. Why didn't I sold it yesterday?

Looks like the index is still going to be red again tomorrow. I didn't expect the market to correct this sharp. I hope I'm wrong again this time.

Standing at 12.41% gain today of the 25% target.

Trading plan for this week

AGI
Entry: 6.78
Short term target: 7.20 - 6.19%
Medium term target: 7.61 - 12.24%
Long term target: 7.87 - 16.07%
Cut loss: 6.53 - 3.68%
Break-even: 6.98

LPZ
Weaker momentum:
Entry: 4.78
Short term target: 5.47 - 14.43%
Medium term target: 6.15 - 28.66%
Long term target: 6.57 - 34.44%
Cut loss: 4.36 - 8.78%
Break-even: 4.92

Stronger momentum:
Entry: 5.01
Short term target: 5.45 - 8.34%
Medium term target: 6.12 - 21.66%
Long term target: 7 - 39.16%
Cut loss: 4.74 - 5.39%
Break-even: 5.16

MPI
Entry: 3.25
Short term target: 3.46 - 6.46%
Medium term target: 3.67 - 12.92%
Long term target: 3.80 - 16.92%
Cut loss: 3.12 - 4%
Break-even: 3.35

FLI
Sell at 1.26-1.27. Break-even at 1.23

Entry: 1.20
Short term target: 1.30 - 8.33%
Medium term target: 1.40 - 16.66%
Long term target: 1.46 - 21.66%
Cut loss: 1.14 - 5%
Break-even: 1.24

MEG
Entry: 1.89
Short term target: 2.04 - 7.93%
Medium term target: 2.19 - 15.87%
Long term target: 2.27 - 20.10%
Cut loss: 1.80 - 4.76%
Break-even: 1.95

Personal Disclosure

Today's session is relatively boring even though the market still ended up in green territory as I was expecting, closing up by 19 points.

Most of the stocks I am looking at are starting to weaken. AGI and MPI are just few centavos away from my entry points. MEG and LPZ are just starting to go down while RFM has still room to move up, possibly one more upswing before correcting.

What's worrying me with RFM is the volume traded during its recent climbs are starting to decline. Upswing range is also growing tighter which is bothering me. However, they have approved a regular cash dividend policy allotting 30% of their recurring net income looks pretty attractive though so I am rather unsure whether to take anymore positions here. Technical vs fundamentals, what to do?

I am partly frustrated as I didn't get to dispose my small position in FLI as my phone died when I tried to call my broker. When I got through, their line was busy. It is definitely a sell today. Now I am forced to wait for the confirmation. My position still stands 2.43% higher from break-even levels so I could probably still sell it at 1.26 tomorrow.

The overall market is now extremely overbought so there is going to be a technical correction in the immediate future, probably by mid week. 3525 is a possible support.

Still standing at 13% gain out of the 25% target.

Hoping for the greater good to happen tomorrow!

Personal Disclosure

I probably made a mistake last week, selling AGI too early as it didn't really showed any clear sign of reversal, missing 4.34% off that trade. Not following the trading plan is really bad.

I was expecting the market to make a correction last Friday. And I was right at the first 30 minutes of the session. However I was proven wrong after that as the market moved up into the positive territory, closing up by 33.21 points.

I am hoping to take profitable positions this week, looking for 20-30% gain for two weeks this time around. I am going to increase my holding time up to two weeks this time until a clear reversal surfaces. I would also try to figure out how I would sell my accumulated position through pyramiding.

I am exceptionally keen on taking positions in AGI, MEG, MPI, RFM, and LPZ. AGI and LPZ are both trading below book value. Hopefully they retrace back to my entry points this week. RCB also looks nice as it is still trading below book value although daily volume turnover is a matter of concern. I will still be holding my small position in FLI as it is still trading below book value too.

Market should be correcting by mid week as the overall market is generally overbought already.

Working on a trading system

I started to setup a working trading system as of mid week of August after I sold every position I have before, ICT from my account and AP from my father’s account. It is working so far but it still needs fine tuning to work out perfectly.

The main focus of my trading system is to accomplish a target within 4-weeks time. The target of the trading system I am setting up is to gain 25% of total equity within 4 weeks. I started using this trading system on August 16, 2010, second week of August. I need to reach the target within 4 weeks time, at September 16, 2010.

The system requires aggressive positioning so I am also putting up an aggressive take on cutting losses. 1% from entry should do it. Position taken should immediately show profit or should not show loss at the very least.

Entry and exit will be confirmed by a set of technical indicators I have learned to use.

I am still learning basic fundamental analysis to get the bigger picture of the trade. So far, I have learned calculating book value and book value per share. Next should be intrinsic value which I have trouble learning until now.

I would also be incorporating pyramiding in my trading system to systematically reduce the risk exposed when taking up a position. The pyramid ratio I will be using will be 3:2:1. My main problem with this new set of rules of pyramiding is I still don't know how I would sell my accumulated position.

I hope to achieve the said target by September 16, my first month, so I can finally change my broker to drastically decrease the commission I am currently paying which requires me to gain 3% to break-even.

I will be starting the target from the proceeds of AP and ICT plus the losses I incurred with SFI and FGEN, plus my current position in FLI.

Gained 13% of the 25% target last week.

Out of 3 trades last week, 2 showed profits. I traded FGEN, FLI, and AGI last week. FLI and AGI showed profits while I immediately took loss with FGEN.

My new trading system seems to be working fine as it showed immediate positive results. However, I might still need to tweak it a bit to produce better results in the immediate future at a faster pacing.