Thursday, February 10, 2011

Foreign Activity

Net Foreign Selling has already amounted to 7.3B YTD.

How much more do you guys still have to sell?

Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP)



RSI just went into oversold territory. The only problem now is how long will it stay oversold and how deep do we go before we have that dead cat bounce.

Nickel Asia Corporation (NIKL)



Following the trend.

London Metal Exchange: Nickel



CASH BUYER 28,255.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,260.00

Semirara Mining Corporation (SCC)



Following the trend.

Manila Electric Company (MER)



Trending down in an accelerated manner. Bearish flag breakdown at 224.
Hypothetically short at 119. Looking to cover(initial) at 200.
If it breaks below 200, best level to cover is at 156.

Alliance Global Corp (AGI)



Fake out at the breakout?

Ohh shhi- - -

Yes, I was like that during the entire session today. Wave after wave of selling didn't falter even until the closing. Only selected issues were able to recover by the closing.

The market broke the "support" at 3800 today on heavy volume, shedding 105 points today or 2.73%, closing at 3738. Even without the huge cross in AEV worth 1.7B, the total turnover for today still falls around 4.6B which is pretty bad specially on down days. Jesus Christ, 100 points in a day. Looking from here, filling the gap at 3600 looks pretty plausible in short/medium term.

The low value turnover earlier this week meant the lack of buyers. So there, we got the confirmation today.

I believe that with the sharp drop of the market today, we are probably bound for a quick dead cat before heading down further. Worst case thing that could happen would be another wave of panic selling without the dead cat.

The only issue that have a significant gain and volume is MRC but one can only look at it with skepticism as it is pretty much a controlled issue. Looking at its intraday trades, it only moved at the closing. It feels like it was manipulated today so it would have some "momentum" for tomorrow, hopefully enough to disposed whatever was bought today.

My positions in AGI and SMC went underwater today. Panic selling was also seen on both issues, with SMC going even beyond the 1% risk intraday. I was telling myself the entire time to endure the drawdown, endure the drawdown. What was bought on the closing should be held and sold at the closing, not during the panic selling. I think that worked pretty well as SMC recovered at the closing, hanging by a thread.

I was looking at the weekly chart of AGI and it occurred to me that the consolidation could probably extend up until the end of February. I'll decided on what to do with AGI this weekend.

SMC touched the bottom of its triangle support and it was trying to hold at that level during the entire session. Luckily, the stock recovered at the closing, safely holding up above support line.

I was actually surprised with NIKL's performance today. I was expecting the drop as it usually sheds around 6% whenever it makes a correction. But after two consecutive days of correction, it has only lost 3.75% so that would leave another 1.25% or so drop in the short term if we follow the pattern of its correction. I added another batch today at the closing. If it does drops another 1% or so, I would definitely add some more.

*I was digging up previous transactions in NIKL because I have observed INTRA-INVEST has been selling 9 days straight for the whole month of February. So I went to digging and I found out that they have around 7M+ shares from 16.50 and they have only just sold 3M shares. So if they don't buy any more shares, it will take them the whole month of February to close their entire position.

So if I have more than 100M invested, it will take me at least a month to liquidate the entire position. That's pretty interesting.
Wow, who let the dogs out? -80 points already.

Panic selling.