Market closed lower courtesy of TEL and ICT.

TEL looks ok for range trading but range is pretty small too (+/- 5%).
Today's action looks overly bearish.

ICT. Well, I dunno what's going on here. The MSCI inclusion issue perhaps? Looks like range trading too. 4% up, 4% down. Anyway, I am trading issues with more upside bias.

Sold my position in LC with the highest aep @0.86. LC closed today @0.89. =(
Proceeds used to buy LPZ. Position in now up from break-even level.
Free cash used to buy URC. Position is also up.

My previous analysis for LC is if closing price is higher than 0.88, it could propel the prices somewhere around 0.98. However, 121(MACQ) seems to pushed the price up at the closing. Breakout entry also says buy if close is higher than 0.89. Let's see.

LCB second day close above previous high(0.94). Breakout entry says buy if close is higher than 0.94.

Missed CEB. Today is probably the start of a new upswing. Daily up, weekly up. No reason not to go long.

Volatility back in BEL and GERI? LR is the weakest among the group.

Volatility is also back in AEV. Not really watching them lately. My attention was range trading mining issues.

Range trade AP. Range is ok but a little tight though. +/- 6%. Drop back to 28 can?

Look for a pullback-entry in EDC? 50EMA pullback perhaps?

Good thing I sold PX yesterday after that ugly-as-fuck candle pattern. Let's see if 20 holds as support. Gap @19.36-19.26. Gap filled: Good. Gap not filled: Better.

LPZ looks tempting. DOji resting on 20 EMA.

Took profits on PX. Today's price action sucked. Looking to swing trade in the future.

CEB

My initial reading suggests a pullback to around 90(weekly basis) after breaking out to warrant a buy although I wasn't expecting it to drop up up to the current level.

But it did:



It retraced to 61.8% Fib levels. Nonetheless, it provides a relatively good short term upside at current levels up to the recent high of 98.

All we need now is positive(weekly/daily) momentum.

Confirmation of move this week:



Even if this is just an A-B-C correction(in a downtrend), you'd still have one profitable leg/trade.

Market Cycle

*For reference only.

Universal Robina Corp (URC)

One crazy idea:



It was suggested that the wave 3 is the longest wave. If I recall it correctly, wave 3 is like x2-x3 of wave 1.

Please take note that I do not practice Elliot wave theory, thus this is just one crazy idea that I have.

Trader's Toolbox: Reversals

Rules to mark a reversal high:

1. The market must make a new high for the last six to eight weeks.
2. The market must close lower than the previous day’s (or week’s) close.
3. The market must reverse the previous day’s (or week’s) action.

-To clarify rule three, the day or week preceding the reversal must have posted a positive close.

4. The market must post follow through action the next day (or week).

-To clarify, the market must close lower on the day (or week) following the reversal.
5. Fifth, the reversal must be accompanied by moderate to high volume. And, finally, the reversal must occur in a terminal (critical) area.

From CLUB.INO.COM. Original post linked on the title.

Philex Mining (PX)

Broke into a new 52-week high (on a Friday).

My calculated breakout buying price is @20.03.

However, RSI is relatively weaker vs price with bearish RSI divergence which are bugging me so I am keeping a tight trailing stop for the meantime. Long white candlestick accompanied by huge volume suggests a short term overly bullish sentiment.

My initial entry is @19.22(1) but I decided to sell 60% of the position(2) that resulted -0.06% of capital as the price of LC that day looked pretty attractive.

Position is now up by 4.65% from adjusted entry price.

Looking closer at the 5-minute chart:

MACD bullish divergence was seen on the 5-minute chart but the price reversed only after RSI divergence.

Crazy juice flowing on the weekly charts:

Pullback after breakout(red circle) from symmetrical triangle pattern with (+/-) 22 as target.

RSI historical resistance 86.

It took 14 weeks to resume its uptrend after breaking out which is kinda hard to time. lol.

Maybe I can (much later on)when I get better in trading.

All positions are up!

Will the property dividend by PX enough to push the prices beyond 20?!

Breakout buy on PX?

I think PX closing higher than 20 is enough to warrant a hold for the meantime.
Bid size got pretty thick today!

I think AP just bounced off from its support @28. Look to take profits @30-32.

PEP heavy selling in LC.

The reason why MA won't bounce is probably the heavy selling of 162.

FGEN gap @13.70-13.88.

wow. da market sak. wow.

Wall of worry.

Sold(cut-loss) half PX @19.66 earlier today. Remaining position break-even level is now up @20.
Proceeds used to buy additional LC @0.81.
Free cash used to buy additional LC @0.78.
Only 1 losing position in LC, bought @0.85.
I'd probably lighten up somewhere 0.90+ but if this one closes higher than 0.88, I'd probaby hold for the meantime.

AGI broke down/gap down and closed below support @11.
DMI sell signal on daily and weekly chart.
wRSI broke down.
Triple EMA breakdown.
Pattern breakdown target: 9.12.
Medium term support: 10.

AP weekly 50MA/Pattern support: 27.
wRSI broke support.

AT Range trade. Trading range 16-18. Possible trend candidate. wMACD Buy signal.

CMT support 1.20.

LCB possible doji setup.

LR possible doji setup.

MA gap support @0.039 held(?)

MER MPP possible penetration. Buy stop @257.

PX weekly reversal pattern. wRSI sell signal. Watch price movement at wRSI support.

SMDC range trade. Trading range 8.50-9.50.

SMPH breakout candidate. Normal resistance @12. Trading range 11.50-12.

URC WPP buy signal.


PSEi is bearish. New RSI low but index is still not making new lows.
All shares index looks like holding up(RSI support).
Financial sector is forming successive lower RSI highs(bearish divergence). DMI sell signal today.
Holding sector is forming successive lower RSI highs(bearish divergence) and currently trending down but trend strength is starting to pick up.
Industrial sector is holding up(RSI support) but currently trending down and trend strength is starting to pick up.
Mining sector is holding up(RSI support) with a possible short term reversal play(doji setup).
Property sector appears to be in a weak downtrend.
Service sector appears to be in a weak downtrend.

LC

Bullish divergence on 5-min chart:




Or I am probably just hallucinating lol

Can the bears push AGI down to 10?

FGEN

Good thing I checked FGEN's weekly chart despite the urge to buy after the four consistent pattern it was showing:


I think it's better to wait for weekly RSI 40 for the mean time.

I wasn't expecting the gap down today though.

Got stopped out in FLI @1.21.

I really thought that the 10-min downtrend in LC is about to end when it went the other way around today so I decided to place a barat bid @0.78 which didn't get hit today.
121 bought up alot of shares yesterday @0.85. 121 sold alot of share today @0.83.

I'd probably add some in PX tomorrow if it starts recovering by then.

Finally some volatility in AGI! I am really tempted to buy some earlier but I didn't. I would be waiting for a confirmation tomorrow but if AGI drops to 10.50 levels, I think I would jump on it. Bullish divergence on the 10-min chart suggests a short term bottom is just around the corner.

Or place a buy stop in BEL? Range looks pretty good and can be traded.

Today was rather boring although I think today would have provided some good entries to certain issues.

Issues that I am looking at this week are AT/BEL - range trading, PX/LC/B/URC - trending with LC/B/URC completing a 1-2-3 pullback setup and finally CEB for a pullback after a breakout setup.

I think LC needs to close higher than 0.88 to continue heading up.

Hopefully, CEB closes somewhere @90 this week to confirm my theory.

I am confused with URC's price movement. I am wondering if today's price action completed it's 1-2-3 pullback today. Lemme see my notes...

No idea what happened to MEG today.

I love small red candles. <3

Manila Mining (MA)

Sometimes, I don't know if I am just having a bad break or simply being stupid when trading.

Here's one of the reasons why I stopped trading with candlesticks(well I still do trade with doji candles though):



A hammer followed by a bullish engulfing = $$ right? Not this time. Had you traded it that way, you are down by 6% or so in the trade already plus another 6% or so, depending on your position size while waiting for your stop to be hit.

Or maybe, I am doing it all wrong. Perhaps wait for the gap to be filled/position at the gap instead?
I'll toss a coin if I would place a barat bid at 0.036.

I'm betting LC will continue to move sideways to down for another day or two.

Too many sellers in PX @20.


*EDIT: If I am reading LC correctly, it would probably resume heading back up by Tuesday.

Click here for the original post: http://www.investmentu.com

A Position Sizing Lesson: Why Size Matters to All Investing Greats

By Brian Hunt, Contributing Editor
Tuesday, May 25, 2004: Issue #340

I made four times my money in JDS Uniphase. But I made one mistake with JDS Uniphase: I didn’t put enough money into the trade, and picked up a valuable lesson on position sizing. It was early 2000, near the top of the bubble, and I was getting used to making 100%-plus returns.

Reading a popular investment newsletter, I fell for the hype surrounding another tech stock, LSI Logic but I wouldn’t make the same “mistake” I did with JDS Uniphase.

“If I’m going to make four times my money again, I’m doing it with over half my portfolio,” I thought.

But something awful happened on the way to the bank: Instead of soaring in value and making me rich, LSI Logic tanked. I was out $23,000 – more than I would even spend on a car!

The LSI Logic loss was brutal, and it wasn’t the only stock I lost money on. So I decided to make a big change. I couldn’t lose that kind of money again.

I left the markets for over a year to study to find out what professional investors do that I didn’t do.

Here’s what I learned…

Position Sizing is What the Pros Do that Novices Don’t

I made all kinds of mistakes starting out, like trying to make a quick buck and buying the most popular stocks but the biggest mistake was ignoring position sizing as a powerful investing concept.

It’s amazing how few investors even consider how much money to place into one investment. That’s all position sizing is the part of your investing strategy that tells you “how much” to place into any one investment.

Position sizing provides the answers to these questions:

• Should you place 10% of your money into one stock?
• How about 50% of your money?

What All Great Traders Have in Common

After taking several big losses in my account, I decided to learn from the greats. I read a book called Market Wizards, and discovered the world’s most successful investors used position sizing by putting only a tiny portion of their money (generally 1-2%) at risk on one idea.

I then learned the specifics of position sizing from the book, Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom, by Dr. Van K. Tharp. After studying thousands of successful traders, Dr. Tharp learned that every trader making millions in the market is fanatical about using position sizing to control risk.

Here’s How You Can Use Position Sizing in Your Own Portfolio

Let’s say you have $100,000 to invest and you’re using the 1% risk model to guide your investments. If you’re using a 25% stop loss, you could buy $4,000 worth of stock and risk $1,000 ($1,000 is 1% of $100,000).

In the example above, you placed 4% of your portfolio into the stock and set a 25% stop – risking just $1,000 of your money (since $1,000 is 25% of $4,000).

Some investors use even tighter stops, in the 10%-15% range.

If you’re using the 1% risk model with a 10% stop loss, you could buy $10,000 worth of stock. You have the same dollar amount at risk ($1,000) as the first example – but you’re allowing the stock less room to go down before you sell.

Now I use smart position sizing – and I never worry about taking big losses like I did with LSI Logic. Take a look at your portfolio today and make sure you know “how much” you have at risk. That way you’ll be prepared regardless of what happens with any one position.

Breakout buy entry

(high+close)/2 > Previous high = buy

Who killed Momentum?

That's who.

FLI's annoying little sucker. Damn.

40 Million wall @ 0.93. Damn.

LC looking to gap up today. yikes

Finance Manila: Trading Systems, Methods & Resources

Added a new link:

Trading Systems, Methods & Resources from Finance Manila (financemanila.net).

Lots of stuff to learn in the thread. Too bad it isn't sticky-ed on FM so I'll be keeping a link for a more direct access instead of digging it from the grave. Worth every time spent reading when one needs guidance.

Haters gonna hate.

If LC is a person, this is what he would probably feel today:

Despite my vow not to go/read forums anymore, I still did as I am bored as hell during trading sessions plus there's really nobody to talk to with regards to stock trading among my friends. Anyway, I am holding LC as my core position now so I frequent the LC thread in Finance Manila.

As I read the thread, I already felt that LC is poised for a heavy correction as majority of the posters are clamoring for a gap up to 1 while others are making calls for it to move to 1.20. As much as I do with everything, I ignored it and moved along. And so the correction came and so the bashers. I think yesterday was the worst day for LC as people started to dig up fundamentals again plus I really felt like bashing my head against the wall too lol.

Today it closed by more than 12%.

I think we can use the forums to use some of our trading decision too. As far as I have observed in the past, when people are clamoring for a gap up, it's time to sell. When people are bashing a certain stock - but with the exception of bash-plenty(is that even correct?) issues - it's time to sell.

Sold JGS for -2% of capital today @26.50 for PX @19.22. I still sold it despite the fact that negative momentum has slowed down/bottomed out already because positive momentum in PX has started to gain already. I am looking for a quick(a week) 10% in PX more or less.

FLI is up! Yay haha. Small position only. "GEO" fund.

DMI buy signal on SCC fyi.

See MA. Today was the confirmation that I was talking about right?

I really like to believe that the sellers in LC got tired selling already this past few days.

Manila Mining Corp "A"

I wanted to buy some MA earlier today but I was afraid lol.

Here are the reason's why I wanted to buy it:



RSI is resting at its support with negative ROC flattening out suggesting the correction is over.

Maybe I should have bought since I was feeling afraid lol. Anyway, confirmation of the next move is tomorrow.

Was thinking of selling JGS for a loss earlier today so I placed my sell order @25.85 but I pulled it out when I saw someone bought up to 25.60. Luckily, it closed @26 although still for a loss. I am starting to get traumatized by doji candlesticks at higher end of the trend lol.

Today is probably the worst day for DMC. -11.70% in one day just because it wasn't included in MSCI(unexpected)?

No way in hell for me to catch the move in ICT today. Will it continue to go higher? I have no idea but I hope it fades the gap back to 55 at least. It is trading another all time high though.

Bought some FLI today @1.25. Let's see how things go from here.
LC is breakeven. :((

Trading tools are back. My current system is for trending stocks, which sucks and prone to buy high sell low in ranging markets.

Divergence on Weekly Charts - Yikes

And we are back on the track!

JGS

So I have been looking to add up my position in JGS so I have been watching it all week. Last Friday, there was a bid of 1M shares @25.50. All of a sudden the bid got pulled out, closing with 250k shares instead which spooks me out. Although before the 1M bid got pulled out, I checked who's been buying all day: 209. All his selling are all from cross sales only so I think 209 is accumulating.

DMI reading suggests strong uptrend so I think buying on pullbacks on 9SMA or 20EMA can be applied to trade this one.

Pullback after breakout(26.55 - bounce) can also be applied for a better position.



Gokongwei stocks are definitely moving.

Blow off setup?

MA(daily): Getting ready for a blow off?




LC(weekly): Same setup? Volume's half way there.

Two consecutive fake buy signals in a row, yesterday was EDC and today in NIKL. Not that they hit my stops already though I still feel I am doing something wrong. Luckily, it's just the "GEO" fund I was using to poke around. I think I'd better stop chasing momentum like a headless chicken now.

Most of the issues right now appear very heavy or this is just the much needed correction? I think I was right on the overly bullish move of DMC yesterday. The momentum of JGS also come to a stop. No stops are hit so no selling yet.

After the huge drop in RFM yesterday, it made a nice recovery today. 5% in a day is nice but looking from its transactions, it appears to have wide spreads so I think I'll pass for the mean time.

What pulled down the market btw?

Missed the DMC train today. Damn. My calculated entry for DMC is 46.07. It's either I buy tomorrow IF it corrects(hopefully I am right in reading the overly bullish movement today) or I buy with the new-high-setup.

Turns out I read JGS right. Either I buy at the open tomorrow or apply new-high-setup too.

Isn't RFM undervalued already? FY10 income report came out today, growing by 71.4% and the stock drops by 7.95%? I do not understand. Charts later if I don't get too wrapped up in playing Dragon Age 2.

Sold GEO for coffee money. Ignored the buy signal today in ICT because there was a wide price spread when it was generated. Turned out I was wrong. Damn.

52-week new high on Friday rule

“The 52-week new highs on Friday rule” is usually applied to the market itself and not to an individual stock.

Rule number 1: On a new 52-week high, when the market closes at or close to its high on a Friday, buy long and go home long for the weekend.

Rule number 2: Exit the long position on the opening the following Tuesday.

Rule number 3: If the market opens lower on Monday, exit the position immediately.

Originally shared by Shoyu Ramen in Finance Manila. Hope he doesn't mind me posting this one out here(sharing to other people and for personal use). Will take this one down if he doesn't want other people posting his stuff.

*Originally from Ino.com. Click the title for the original video/lesson.

Alliance Global Group, Inc. (AGI)

Can you use trendlines/triangle s-r lines like this?

Is it just me or LCB's chart looks better than LC?

Gold ($GOLD - Continuous Contract (EOD)) Index

50-EMA trade setup on gold:



Bounce from RSI-50 is a bonus. Stop-loss depends on one's risk appetite.
Take profits when you're happy.

Damn missed the boat in SMC. I was expecting it to consolidate further, around 2 to 3 days, before recovering. It caught me off guard!!!

I finally got a buy signal from JGS I am comfortable with so I put up a relevant position in it. Added some more LC. BDO seems recovering already.

My LC in the PSE-STG is already up by 46.55%! Lol. If I only had the balls when it first made its "new high" then. Oh well.

GEO had a private placement today (950M shares) at par. I hope it doesn't gap tomorrow. I'll be putting my "barya" there tomorrow.

Market, please be good so I can buy my own place. <3

CEBU AIR, INC. (CEB)

Daily line chart:



Buy on pullback after breakout setup?
Resistance/Support @90 +3% bounce filter = buy stop @92.7

Not a recommendation to buy. Just thinking out loud.

Could I have been wrong in reading the price action in BDO? Position is down by 1.5% already. Stop loss is still not hit though. Hold? Should have bought more LC instead.

GLOBAL-ESTATE RESORTS, INC. (GERI)

Weekly line chart:



Potential double top as the trend has been pretty much extended already.

Gaps: Trading gaps.

FGEN: Gap acting as support. Gap is not filled.





PNX: Fade the gap. Gap filled.



MPI: Filling the gap.



SMC: Gap down. Fade the gap(?)



This post only shows how gaps act. Some doesn't get filled and act as support(FGEN). Some are filled a few weeks after building a base(PNX) while some gaps don't get filled outright. Sometimes, it takes a gap a really long time to get filled(MPI).

That being said, no one can really say how the gap in SMC would act. One thing is certain though, act when the opportunity says so. Not because a blogger says so or forum members say so but when your trading system says so.

Theory says that all gaps are filled, sooner or later. They say it's nature's way of things. :))
Once the gap is filled, price action resumes the direction of the gap.


*So if FGEN trades beyond 21 and the entire market crashes back, look to buy at 10.40-10.70 :)) (Just kidding).

SMC SMC SMC

SMC closed at 153 before when it was range trading around 150-180 range when I decided to test my system if it could be used for price prediction. This is done on the PSE trading game so there's no real money involved. Okay, now that being said, I put up a buy stop at 150 which got hit last 4/12/11 before closing at 153 that day. I think it was Livermore who said that if the price goes your way right after you put up a position, it means that you are on the right side of the market - which I believe.

Then, the company decided do a voluntary suspension on the issue the next day "to avoid manipulation". Clearly, that's a very noble intent as they were trying to protect their investors. Or so they said. A few days before the voluntary suspension was lifted, they finally announced that they are going to sell their secondary offering at the lower end at 110. That being said, it feels like they did exactly the opposite of what they said. They wanted to avoid other people manipulating their stock because they wanted to do it themselves. Lol.

Anyway, enough of my personal opinion. Let's look at the chart instead:



Before the suspension, range trade 150-170(180) with stop loss right below 150(5-10%) depending on one's risk appetite.

Going -30% after the suspension was lifted, what would be the right thing to do. Would you still hold? I don't know. This is the first huge-gap-down-case in my trading career. Daig pa ang basura stocks.

I think, the best way to deal with this(for people without position in SMC) is to fade the gap. After the dust settles and the price stabilizes, I would wait for a buy signal before putting up a position and sell a little lower than 150 so I wouldn't be with the people who still have 150+ wanting to get out. Pwede din kahit 10% lang masaya na ako :D

LEISURE & RESORTS WORLD CORP. (LR)

Two days with huge volume during a consolidation period. First day(4/19/11) are pretty much scattered buyers and sellers while the second day(4/28/11) came from the huge cross from 263(Venture Sec).

Huge volume in a consolidation period. Whatever that means, I do not know but I'm watching. No signals from my system yet.

**Too lazy to do the review on the ICT trade. Too busy watching Game of thrones!