Accelerated downtrend.
Signs of reversal:
1. Formation of higher peak and trough.
2. Steep decline on heavy volume.
The steep decline on heavy volume would be the "blast to put the fire out". A parabolic drop so to speak - the sign of capitulation.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP)
Accelerated downtrend.
Signs of reversal:
1. Formation of higher peak and trough.
2. Steep decline on heavy volume.
The steep decline on heavy volume would be the "blast to put the fire out". A parabolic drop so to speak - the sign of capitulation.
Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV)
Waiting and watching it test the strength of the possible reversal. Reversal in the works.
Alliance Global Corporation (AGI)
It would be much safer to assume that it will simply range trade til kingdom come, unless it does a convincing breakout - strong candlestick pattern and heavy volume.
Breakdown to the downside - support at 10.90 - will prompt a sell signal.
Breakup to the upside - resistance at 13 - will prompt a buy signal.
To lessen the risk of the trade, take profits/take cover after the breakout and buy back at the breakout point to test the strength of the trend.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
CASH BUYER 27,830.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 27,835.00
Down by 1.5% from last Thursday.
From the beginning of the year(01/01/11 - $12.62/lb), Nickel prices has risen by 10.50% up to date(02/14/11 - $12.62/lb) with a high of $13/lb last February 8.
Sell on rally?
The market rebounded in today's session with 47.58 points, 1.27% higher from Friday's session along with other Asian markets, with Hang Seng leading the rally with +1.30%.
However, value turnover is relatively light in today's rally.
Leading the rally for today are ALI +4.29%, MBT +2.38% and DMC +1.53% while the selling of TEL continued further today, losing another 0.34% and now resting at its support at 2360.
Other gainers with significant turnover are CYBR +11.65% and LIHC +4.71%.
I closed my position in AGI for a total of -1% of equity. The weak opening prompted me to sell it, plus the distribution of several foreign brokers specially Deutsche and Macquarie for over a week now felt more obvious than before, with COL only supporting the stock, I felt I was on the wrong side of the trade, thus the closing of the position.
From the proceeds of the position in AGI, I decided to complete the position in NIKL today. I put a bid of 21.65 after the opening. My bid didn't get hit disappointingly so around 11:15, I decided to cancel by bid and buy at the market. It closed lower at 21.70. How frustrating. 25% of the position I got at around 22-ish are suffering from a small paper loss while the majority of the position I got lower at 19-20 range are still holding up the gains so I am still net positive in the issue.
Just following its trend to minimize the stress in trading. Need to endure the drawdown though. Anyway, 5-minute chart looks pretty good as it seems to be sold down at the closing. Let's see how this one goes this week.
If only I had more patience to wait for a couple of days.
Still watching AEV, AP, JGS, and URC for possible reversal plays. I lowered the priority for FLI and MEG for the meantime until they fully recover from their downtrend. For the meantime both are still falling knives and dead cat bounces.
I don't know what to say with SCC today, but I got buy signal today. It looks pretty ugly with a small white candle today but I don't know. I think I'm going to range trade this one in the meantime. Weekly and daily trend is up.
Still a very selective market, I guess the best stocks to range trade or cat plays are the ones with relative volatility.
CYBR looks pretty interesting issue for this kind of play. Weekly trend is up, daily trend is up but intraday chart looks pretty manipulated as was only bought up at the closing.
However, value turnover is relatively light in today's rally.
Leading the rally for today are ALI +4.29%, MBT +2.38% and DMC +1.53% while the selling of TEL continued further today, losing another 0.34% and now resting at its support at 2360.
Other gainers with significant turnover are CYBR +11.65% and LIHC +4.71%.
I closed my position in AGI for a total of -1% of equity. The weak opening prompted me to sell it, plus the distribution of several foreign brokers specially Deutsche and Macquarie for over a week now felt more obvious than before, with COL only supporting the stock, I felt I was on the wrong side of the trade, thus the closing of the position.
From the proceeds of the position in AGI, I decided to complete the position in NIKL today. I put a bid of 21.65 after the opening. My bid didn't get hit disappointingly so around 11:15, I decided to cancel by bid and buy at the market. It closed lower at 21.70. How frustrating. 25% of the position I got at around 22-ish are suffering from a small paper loss while the majority of the position I got lower at 19-20 range are still holding up the gains so I am still net positive in the issue.
Just following its trend to minimize the stress in trading. Need to endure the drawdown though. Anyway, 5-minute chart looks pretty good as it seems to be sold down at the closing. Let's see how this one goes this week.
If only I had more patience to wait for a couple of days.
Still watching AEV, AP, JGS, and URC for possible reversal plays. I lowered the priority for FLI and MEG for the meantime until they fully recover from their downtrend. For the meantime both are still falling knives and dead cat bounces.
I don't know what to say with SCC today, but I got buy signal today. It looks pretty ugly with a small white candle today but I don't know. I think I'm going to range trade this one in the meantime. Weekly and daily trend is up.
Still a very selective market, I guess the best stocks to range trade or cat plays are the ones with relative volatility.
CYBR looks pretty interesting issue for this kind of play. Weekly trend is up, daily trend is up but intraday chart looks pretty manipulated as was only bought up at the closing.