Friday, November 26, 2010

Trade Setup: AEV - Status: Closed

Here is the 1-year daily chart of AEV:



It has been hugging the top of its trading channel for the past few weeks indicating overbought levels. It also tried to break out but it failed twice.

My entry and exit are shown in the chart.

My original exit was at point 2. However, I had trouble contacting my broker to sell them(specially last Nov 22), so my exit was extended up to this point.

I was concerned about its:

1. Bearish divergence on its MACD visible on the daily chart(point 1 and 2 on price and MACD); and

2. Bearish divergence on its histogram suggesting weakening upward momentum.

3. Too much price spread during trading. I have a relatively holding a small amount of shares but I couldn't sell them @market without driving the price down by around 3% or so!

However, point 3 on ROC suggests a "buy" on rebound but I am not willing to bet on it.

It could also be moving in a "box" but I'm not patient enough to sit and wait for the boxes to move:



Comparing it with my previous position in DMC(1 month):



The trade did fairly well, profiting from both positions.


Conclusion: Sold with 7.53% profit, around 50% off my highest gain in this position.
Good entry. Late exit.

On the red corner...

The market continued to drop today, losing another 43.91 points, 1.07% lower from yesterday at 4053.38, 53 points away from the psychological support at 4000.

The weekly chart suggests that the index is now forming a bottom. Hopefully, the psychological supports hold and a bounce from there would suggest the resumption of the uptrend.

Gainers came mostly from the third liners with the exemption of PCOR +12.21% while losers are mixed with first and second liners with volume: MER, JFC, AT, and MPI.

AP declined to a low of 31.60 today before recovering at the closing at 32.95, closing lower from yesterday by 2.37%. That was one quick drop. Its volume today is unusually high. The last time it had volume traded like this was May 11 this year.
Recovery is possible by next week.

Sold AEV today at 37.70. It could rebound by next week by I highly doubt that it would be making new high by then as it still appears weak on the weekly chart, as also being pointed out by the bearish divergence in MACD on its daily chart.

AP is up by 21.73% within twenty-five trading days with doubled up position.
Sold AEV with 7.53% gain within fourteen trading days.

*Currently waiting to enter another position in another stock.