The market has finally broke the resistance at 4250 after moving sideways this past week. If it is not a false breakout, 4350 is very possible in the short term. However, if it is a false breakout, look into buying within 4146 levels.
AP continued to advance last session gaining 3.90%, closing at 28. Looks like the gap is going to be filled as momentum is relatively top-ish with declining rate of change. Or it might consolidate for a few days before heading back up. Weekly chart is still pointing up so any weakness in the daily chart should provide buying opportunities with minimal risk.
AGI is poised to head up as suggested by the increasing rate of change and momentum. However, there seems to be a strong selling when it reaches 11.18 levels.
DMC advanced last Friday gaining 5.37% closing at 35.30 and it is still poised to head up further as the rate of change just started to point up. Price movement has also satisfied the buying condition.
MEG continued to consolidate last Friday, barely moved at 2.55 levels after breaking out of its symmetrical triangle formation. Immediate target at 2.90 once it resume its uptrend.
The candlestick of PX last Wednesday was confirmed as a hammer last Friday as it seem to reverse its current price movement in the short term.
AT continued to advance last Friday and it seems like it will have a continuation of its advance up to early this week.
Busy weekend so I didn't get the chance to edit and post charts of previous trades.
I sold AGI last Friday for 1% commission loss after holding it for the eight days and I bought DMC with the proceeds as my buying condition for it was satisfied, plus it looks better than AGI last Friday.
Bought DMC at 35.30, closed at 35.30.
AP is now up by 7.20% in 4 days.
*I increased my position in AP last Wednesday, buying at 25.60 and 25.85 not to average down - after buying at 26.60 - but it simply showed a trade setup.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market gained 57.21 points at 4249.17 today, 1.28% higher from yesterday's closing, continuing to move sideways with a support at 4146 and resistance at 4250. Momentum and rate of change are now both pointing up and confirming each other, suggesting that there would be further advance in the short term. If both indicators confirm each other on the weekly charts by next week, the resumption of the uptrend would probably come earlier than I expected.
Top gainers for today are MER, AEV, AP and SMPH while top losers are mostly comprised by third liners.
AGI opened strongly at 11 before it was sold down by MACQUARIE and CLSA, closing at 10.86. Momentum-Rate of change reading right on the money. Today's reading is relatively different as momentum has started to gain strength while rate of change declined further. Resumption of the uptrend would be late this week to early next week.
AP continued to advance further today, gaining 3.65% today closing at 26.95, made a gap up from yesterday's closing. If the gap doesn't get filled tomorrow, immediate target would be at 28.80. Momentum and rate of change are still both pointing up suggesting further advance in the short term and both are still less than half-way from their previous peaks.
MEG would seem to consolidate further in the short term as momentum and rate of change are diverging from each other. Pull backs to 2.40 should provide a good entry. Target would be around 2.90 once it starts to advance (symmetrical triangle target).
DMC did continued to consolidate today. However, despite the diverging momentum and rate of change, it appears to me that it is ready to resume its uptrend as the momentum is starting to gather strength. Buy if price crosses over the 10SMA.
Still confused with PX as the latest candlestick doesn't seen to be confirmed much.
Lost my bet on AT as it advanced further in today's session. It would be safe to assume that it would advance further until next week as both momentum and rate of change are pointing up.
On the other hand, looks like I am right on ORE. Both momentum and rate of change just started to point down (from the peak) suggesting further decline in the short term.
I'll be posting charts of my previous trades later.
AGI is still sitting on commission/tax loss for seven trading days.
AP is now up by 3.18% in 3 days.
*In a relatively choppy market, buy what's showing strength.
Top gainers for today are MER, AEV, AP and SMPH while top losers are mostly comprised by third liners.
AGI opened strongly at 11 before it was sold down by MACQUARIE and CLSA, closing at 10.86. Momentum-Rate of change reading right on the money. Today's reading is relatively different as momentum has started to gain strength while rate of change declined further. Resumption of the uptrend would be late this week to early next week.
AP continued to advance further today, gaining 3.65% today closing at 26.95, made a gap up from yesterday's closing. If the gap doesn't get filled tomorrow, immediate target would be at 28.80. Momentum and rate of change are still both pointing up suggesting further advance in the short term and both are still less than half-way from their previous peaks.
MEG would seem to consolidate further in the short term as momentum and rate of change are diverging from each other. Pull backs to 2.40 should provide a good entry. Target would be around 2.90 once it starts to advance (symmetrical triangle target).
DMC did continued to consolidate today. However, despite the diverging momentum and rate of change, it appears to me that it is ready to resume its uptrend as the momentum is starting to gather strength. Buy if price crosses over the 10SMA.
Still confused with PX as the latest candlestick doesn't seen to be confirmed much.
Lost my bet on AT as it advanced further in today's session. It would be safe to assume that it would advance further until next week as both momentum and rate of change are pointing up.
On the other hand, looks like I am right on ORE. Both momentum and rate of change just started to point down (from the peak) suggesting further decline in the short term.
I'll be posting charts of my previous trades later.
AGI is still sitting on commission/tax loss for seven trading days.
AP is now up by 3.18% in 3 days.
*In a relatively choppy market, buy what's showing strength.
Midnight Express
Market closed relatively flat in yesterday's session, dropping 43 points intraday before closing at 4191.96, slightly lower by 0.71 points only. Gainers are mostly comprised by third liners with AT and AEV as an exception while major losers yesterday are third liners too.
Looking at the charts, the index seems to be half way through consolidation, just in time for the third quarter company reports.
AGI seems like its about to resume its uptrend already, but momentum and rate of change are still pointing down so it might still decline tomorrow. However, if it does starts to advance again, tomorrow would be the earliest and early next week would be the worst.
AP bounced off today from support closing by 1.56% higher yesterday. Momentum and rate of change are pointing up already suggesting advances in the short term. Latest candlestick formation also suggests the same. However, I am second guessing my decision as I might have simply saw what I wanted to saw on the charts. Verdict tomorrow!
Looks like I am wrong on assuming buying on breakout on MEG as it opened and closed lower yesterday forming a bearish candlestick. Should the proper play for breakouts is sell the first breakout and buy the second one? 2.40 level is looking to be the next support.
DMC seemed to consolidate further yesterday as it is also being pointed out by momentum diverging from rate of change.
PX recovered today and bounced off its next immediate support at 12.90. However, I am still doubting the candlestick that it formed yesterday as I am unsure if it is a on-neck pattern or a hammer pattern. Only one way to find out, watch its price movement until the end of the week!
I am betting on two to three days consolidation in AT following its advance yesterday, basing it from its previous behavior. Let's see how it'd go.
ORE is one interesting issue. Die hard fans of this stock are jumping out of joy yesterday as it was one of the most active stocks with 3.98% gain. However, is this a reason to be jumping for joy?
Technically speaking, momentum and rate of change are relatively the same with its previous peaks suggesting price decline in the short term. But knowing that it is a jockeyed stock, I hardly doubt that my analysis would be right.
Anyway, I would be try to post a chart of this one since I profited around 30% from ORE before within two weeks.
AGI is sitting on 2.5% net paper loss (commission/tax).
Break-even at 11.15.
Six trading days.
AP is sitting on 0.46% net loss.
Two trading days.
*Sell on the first breakout (of range) and then buy the second break out.
Looking at the charts, the index seems to be half way through consolidation, just in time for the third quarter company reports.
AGI seems like its about to resume its uptrend already, but momentum and rate of change are still pointing down so it might still decline tomorrow. However, if it does starts to advance again, tomorrow would be the earliest and early next week would be the worst.
AP bounced off today from support closing by 1.56% higher yesterday. Momentum and rate of change are pointing up already suggesting advances in the short term. Latest candlestick formation also suggests the same. However, I am second guessing my decision as I might have simply saw what I wanted to saw on the charts. Verdict tomorrow!
Looks like I am wrong on assuming buying on breakout on MEG as it opened and closed lower yesterday forming a bearish candlestick. Should the proper play for breakouts is sell the first breakout and buy the second one? 2.40 level is looking to be the next support.
DMC seemed to consolidate further yesterday as it is also being pointed out by momentum diverging from rate of change.
PX recovered today and bounced off its next immediate support at 12.90. However, I am still doubting the candlestick that it formed yesterday as I am unsure if it is a on-neck pattern or a hammer pattern. Only one way to find out, watch its price movement until the end of the week!
I am betting on two to three days consolidation in AT following its advance yesterday, basing it from its previous behavior. Let's see how it'd go.
ORE is one interesting issue. Die hard fans of this stock are jumping out of joy yesterday as it was one of the most active stocks with 3.98% gain. However, is this a reason to be jumping for joy?
Technically speaking, momentum and rate of change are relatively the same with its previous peaks suggesting price decline in the short term. But knowing that it is a jockeyed stock, I hardly doubt that my analysis would be right.
Anyway, I would be try to post a chart of this one since I profited around 30% from ORE before within two weeks.
AGI is sitting on 2.5% net paper loss (commission/tax).
Break-even at 11.15.
Six trading days.
AP is sitting on 0.46% net loss.
Two trading days.
*Sell on the first breakout (of range) and then buy the second break out.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market declined further in today's session losing 23.86 points, closing at 4191.25. Major index gainer today is MEG while major index losers came from the mining sector comprising of LC, LCB, MAB, and PX.
AGI seemed to have found support at current levels. However, both momentum and rate of change are still pointing to further decline in the short term. Weekly chart looks like its half-way through its decline so am expecting it to resume its uptrend late this week or by early next week.
ATR and JPMorgan seems to be accumulating as they are net buyers today with 31M and 1.9M (volume) respectively.
I forgot to post my analysis for MEG if it breaks out of trading range yesterday. It should have been buy on break out of the resistance at 2.55. Anyway, I still missed today's buy on break out for MEG as I left 30 minutes before the market's closing. Any pullbacks near 2.55 levels should provide opportunity to buy with a target of 2.90 from the the symmetrical triangle that it formed on the daily charts.
Major foreign buyer today is MACQUARIE amounting to 21.65M (vol).
Rate of change and momentum are both pointing up suggesting further advance in the short term. MACD is already pointing up and the fast line has crossed above the slow line confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
This is frustrating since I have a position in MEG in COL's virtual tycoon. /sadpanda
AP continued to decline further in today's session, losing 1.92% closing at 25.60. Momentum and rate of change are still both pointing down suggesting further decline in the short term. Declines up to 24.50 should provide buying opportunities with minimal risk.
Major buyers today are MACQUARIE, PEP, and DEUTSCHE.
DMC continued its corrective consolidation today losing only by 0.89%. Momentum and rate of change are diverging from each other suggesting further consolidation in the short term.
Major buyers today are DBP-DAIWA and JPMorgan.
PX broke down today from its support at 14 by more than 3% suggesting further decline in the medium term. Momemtum, rate of change and MACD are all pointing down suggesting the idea of further decline.
Next support at 12.76-12.90 levels.
Looks like I was right about MBT. Too bad I didn't get the "OK" signal to buy it. The only stocks that I have the "OK" sign to buy are: AP, AGI, MEG and DMC.
My position in AGI is still on commision/paper loss.
AGI seemed to have found support at current levels. However, both momentum and rate of change are still pointing to further decline in the short term. Weekly chart looks like its half-way through its decline so am expecting it to resume its uptrend late this week or by early next week.
ATR and JPMorgan seems to be accumulating as they are net buyers today with 31M and 1.9M (volume) respectively.
I forgot to post my analysis for MEG if it breaks out of trading range yesterday. It should have been buy on break out of the resistance at 2.55. Anyway, I still missed today's buy on break out for MEG as I left 30 minutes before the market's closing. Any pullbacks near 2.55 levels should provide opportunity to buy with a target of 2.90 from the the symmetrical triangle that it formed on the daily charts.
Major foreign buyer today is MACQUARIE amounting to 21.65M (vol).
Rate of change and momentum are both pointing up suggesting further advance in the short term. MACD is already pointing up and the fast line has crossed above the slow line confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
This is frustrating since I have a position in MEG in COL's virtual tycoon. /sadpanda
AP continued to decline further in today's session, losing 1.92% closing at 25.60. Momentum and rate of change are still both pointing down suggesting further decline in the short term. Declines up to 24.50 should provide buying opportunities with minimal risk.
Major buyers today are MACQUARIE, PEP, and DEUTSCHE.
DMC continued its corrective consolidation today losing only by 0.89%. Momentum and rate of change are diverging from each other suggesting further consolidation in the short term.
Major buyers today are DBP-DAIWA and JPMorgan.
PX broke down today from its support at 14 by more than 3% suggesting further decline in the medium term. Momemtum, rate of change and MACD are all pointing down suggesting the idea of further decline.
Next support at 12.76-12.90 levels.
Looks like I was right about MBT. Too bad I didn't get the "OK" signal to buy it. The only stocks that I have the "OK" sign to buy are: AP, AGI, MEG and DMC.
My position in AGI is still on commision/paper loss.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market continued to move sideways today, closing lower by 1.24 points. ALI was sold down today again down to 16 before recovering back and closing at 17.30. I now have the notion of buying ALI immediately once it drops by more than 5% for quick money.
AGI continued to decline today, losing by 5 centavos or 0.54%. Rate of change and momentum is still diverging from each other so I am inclined to believe it will continue to decline/consolidate in the short term. Its weekly charts looks like its half-way through its decline so am expecting it to resume its advances late this week or by early next week.
MEG met resistance from its previous high of 2.55 (tweezer top) and started to decline at that point. A bounce from 2.35-2.40 (gap) levels should provide a good entry if it is to resume its uptrend. A bounce from that level would also confirm the symmetrical triangle pattern that formed in its daily chart with a target of 2.90.
However, if it declines further beyond that point, expect a strong support at 2.20 levels and continue to trade the range. Furthermore, if it declines further beyond the 2.35-2.40 (gap) level, the symmetrical triangle pattern would be rendered void and would be replaced by an ascending triangle pattern, with a target of 2.80.
On the other hand, FLI moved sideways with a tighter range from 1.32 to 1.40. A possible symmetrical triangle pattern might also be forming on the charts.
PX dropped by 0.56% today. It is definitely forming a descending triangle pattern. However, as much as I don't like seeing spinning tops on the top of trading ranges as they usually signifies movement reversal in the short term, I pretty much welcome its appearance on the bottom of trading ranges. With a bounce from its current support of 14 should provide a good entry with a tight stop loss right below, with immediate resistance at 15. Breaking above 15 would suggest the end of the short term down trend and it would be resuming its uptrend.
However, if it does break its support at 14, expect immediate support at 12.76-12.90 levels.
I won't be watching RFM for the meantime or until it breaks its resistance at 2 and/or once it gains 10M daily turnover on up-days. Weekly charts seems to be forming rising three method (candlestick pattern) which seems to be pointing at 1.70 level as possible support.
AP started to decline today, losing by 0.76% closing at 26.10. Both momentum and rate of change are pointing down so it seems like it would be declining further in the short term. Pullbacks and rebounds from 24.67 to 25.27 should provide good entry points. Weekly charts are looking relatively weak so I am not expecting it to rebound up til early next week (at best).
DMC would seem to be consolidating in the short term. A bounce from 31-32 levels should provide good entry.
The selling of MBT looks like it was overdone/overly bearish for me. Buy if it advances tomorrow with immediate resistance at 71.92 up to 72.96.
My current position in AGI is still the same; sitting on half of commission/paper loss.
AGI continued to decline today, losing by 5 centavos or 0.54%. Rate of change and momentum is still diverging from each other so I am inclined to believe it will continue to decline/consolidate in the short term. Its weekly charts looks like its half-way through its decline so am expecting it to resume its advances late this week or by early next week.
MEG met resistance from its previous high of 2.55 (tweezer top) and started to decline at that point. A bounce from 2.35-2.40 (gap) levels should provide a good entry if it is to resume its uptrend. A bounce from that level would also confirm the symmetrical triangle pattern that formed in its daily chart with a target of 2.90.
However, if it declines further beyond that point, expect a strong support at 2.20 levels and continue to trade the range. Furthermore, if it declines further beyond the 2.35-2.40 (gap) level, the symmetrical triangle pattern would be rendered void and would be replaced by an ascending triangle pattern, with a target of 2.80.
On the other hand, FLI moved sideways with a tighter range from 1.32 to 1.40. A possible symmetrical triangle pattern might also be forming on the charts.
PX dropped by 0.56% today. It is definitely forming a descending triangle pattern. However, as much as I don't like seeing spinning tops on the top of trading ranges as they usually signifies movement reversal in the short term, I pretty much welcome its appearance on the bottom of trading ranges. With a bounce from its current support of 14 should provide a good entry with a tight stop loss right below, with immediate resistance at 15. Breaking above 15 would suggest the end of the short term down trend and it would be resuming its uptrend.
However, if it does break its support at 14, expect immediate support at 12.76-12.90 levels.
I won't be watching RFM for the meantime or until it breaks its resistance at 2 and/or once it gains 10M daily turnover on up-days. Weekly charts seems to be forming rising three method (candlestick pattern) which seems to be pointing at 1.70 level as possible support.
AP started to decline today, losing by 0.76% closing at 26.10. Both momentum and rate of change are pointing down so it seems like it would be declining further in the short term. Pullbacks and rebounds from 24.67 to 25.27 should provide good entry points. Weekly charts are looking relatively weak so I am not expecting it to rebound up til early next week (at best).
DMC would seem to be consolidating in the short term. A bounce from 31-32 levels should provide good entry.
The selling of MBT looks like it was overdone/overly bearish for me. Buy if it advances tomorrow with immediate resistance at 71.92 up to 72.96.
My current position in AGI is still the same; sitting on half of commission/paper loss.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market simply moved sideways this week as it closed 17 points - 0.40% lower from yesterday's session, closing at 4216.35. This market behavior would probably last till the next earning reports come in. No news is bad news.
AGI fell by 1.43% in the previous session, closing at 11.02 leaving my position virtually unchanged when I bought it. Divergence in rate of change and momentum is suggesting further corrective consolidation in the short term. Weekly charts is definitely pointing down now.
Of all the property stocks that I've been watching, MEG seems to be the one that showed greater strength among the three. Although it seems like it has peaked already at 2.50. Any rebounds from the support at 2.20 should be bought. Weekly charts also gave a buy signal so any weakness in the daily charts should provide a good buying opportunity. Breaking the previous high at 2.55 would be possible as soon as the MACD starts pointing up.
Not the same case with ALI as selling started to surface at the 18 levels. Bounces from 16.70 levels should provide buying windows with a tight stop right below it. Avoid if it breaks the 16.70 support levels.
FLI behaved like ALI although not as bad. Rebounds from 1.32 support levels should provide buying windows with a tight stop loss right below the entry point.
Avoid if breaks the 1.32 support levels.
PX is make or break at 14. Divergence in momentum and rate of change is suggesting consolidation though.
RFM closed unchanged yesterday. There was a slight loss of momentum although both indicators are still pointing up so the possibility of advancing and retesting the resistance at 2 is possible.
I missed the AP boat! /sadface
DMC is probably the only one I can ride with now for the mean time.
AGI fell by 1.43% in the previous session, closing at 11.02 leaving my position virtually unchanged when I bought it. Divergence in rate of change and momentum is suggesting further corrective consolidation in the short term. Weekly charts is definitely pointing down now.
Of all the property stocks that I've been watching, MEG seems to be the one that showed greater strength among the three. Although it seems like it has peaked already at 2.50. Any rebounds from the support at 2.20 should be bought. Weekly charts also gave a buy signal so any weakness in the daily charts should provide a good buying opportunity. Breaking the previous high at 2.55 would be possible as soon as the MACD starts pointing up.
Not the same case with ALI as selling started to surface at the 18 levels. Bounces from 16.70 levels should provide buying windows with a tight stop right below it. Avoid if it breaks the 16.70 support levels.
FLI behaved like ALI although not as bad. Rebounds from 1.32 support levels should provide buying windows with a tight stop loss right below the entry point.
Avoid if breaks the 1.32 support levels.
PX is make or break at 14. Divergence in momentum and rate of change is suggesting consolidation though.
RFM closed unchanged yesterday. There was a slight loss of momentum although both indicators are still pointing up so the possibility of advancing and retesting the resistance at 2 is possible.
I missed the AP boat! /sadface
DMC is probably the only one I can ride with now for the mean time.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market opened 20 points lower today before gaining 27 points at the end of the session.
AGI gained another 3% today, half-way through my break-even point! Momentum and rate of change is still diverging from each other suggesting consolidation in the short term. Weekly chart is manifesting relative weakness suggesting selling on rallies although it might change if the stock finishes up strongly this week. Pull backs to 10 levels should provide nice buying windows.
RFM, PX, MEG, and ALI also rebounded strongly today.
ALI found solid support on 50-MA. Today could have been the best buying window for this stock, with immediate resistance at 18.42 levels. Very nice candidate for range trading. I am not expecting it to break its previous high at 18.70 in the short term as the MACD reading is still pointing down.
MEG bounced off strongly from its support at 2.20 levels, gaining 4% today. Momentum and rate of change have began to point up suggesting advances in the short term, with immediate resistance at 2.43. Breaking of the immediate resistance would suggest that the uptrend would resume. I highly doubt it though as MACD reading is still pointing down so I am more inclined to range trade at best.
Another property stock that caught my attention today while scanning charts is FLI. It formed a very bullish candlestick pattern today - Piercing pattern. Chances of this stock advancing tomorrow is very high with immediate resistance at 1.45. MACD is still pointing down so it would be range trading at best in the short term.
I am seeing a symmetrical triangle formation in PX. Today would have been the best time to buy it too and/or as close to 14 as possible with a very tight stop loss below 14. Bands are relatively flat so the possibility of range-trading is also there with immediate resistance at 16.
RFM is struggling at its current support - 1.79 - as both 10 and 50 SMAs are pointing out. RFM is behaving exactly as I've been expecting! Too bad most my funds are still frozen! Chances of breaking the resistance at 2 now is relatively high as MACD just crossed over the zero line. /sadface
It looks like I can ride AP once it resumes its advance next week though!
Rebound at 32 levels for DMC should warrant a buy signal.
Can't wait for my COL account to be activated hehe.
AGI gained another 3% today, half-way through my break-even point! Momentum and rate of change is still diverging from each other suggesting consolidation in the short term. Weekly chart is manifesting relative weakness suggesting selling on rallies although it might change if the stock finishes up strongly this week. Pull backs to 10 levels should provide nice buying windows.
RFM, PX, MEG, and ALI also rebounded strongly today.
ALI found solid support on 50-MA. Today could have been the best buying window for this stock, with immediate resistance at 18.42 levels. Very nice candidate for range trading. I am not expecting it to break its previous high at 18.70 in the short term as the MACD reading is still pointing down.
MEG bounced off strongly from its support at 2.20 levels, gaining 4% today. Momentum and rate of change have began to point up suggesting advances in the short term, with immediate resistance at 2.43. Breaking of the immediate resistance would suggest that the uptrend would resume. I highly doubt it though as MACD reading is still pointing down so I am more inclined to range trade at best.
Another property stock that caught my attention today while scanning charts is FLI. It formed a very bullish candlestick pattern today - Piercing pattern. Chances of this stock advancing tomorrow is very high with immediate resistance at 1.45. MACD is still pointing down so it would be range trading at best in the short term.
I am seeing a symmetrical triangle formation in PX. Today would have been the best time to buy it too and/or as close to 14 as possible with a very tight stop loss below 14. Bands are relatively flat so the possibility of range-trading is also there with immediate resistance at 16.
RFM is struggling at its current support - 1.79 - as both 10 and 50 SMAs are pointing out. RFM is behaving exactly as I've been expecting! Too bad most my funds are still frozen! Chances of breaking the resistance at 2 now is relatively high as MACD just crossed over the zero line. /sadface
It looks like I can ride AP once it resumes its advance next week though!
Rebound at 32 levels for DMC should warrant a buy signal.
Can't wait for my COL account to be activated hehe.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market made a relatively steep decline today, losing 1.24% - 52.27 points lower from yesterday, closing at 4166. Today is the steepest decline the index has made since the crazy run up that broke the previous high. It looks like the market is still poised to decline in the short term with immediate support at 4125.
I've not been writing much as I have been reviewing my previous trades, both gainers and losers to refine my system further. I am also currently transferring my funds to Citiseconline so my funds are generally frozen at the moment except for some that I've left on my live broker.
Bought AGI today at 10.84 with the remaining 30% of my active capital as I saw CLSA gobbling the shares up to 10.90 but wasn't able to sustain its buying before closing at 10.66 today. So that's 1.6% paper loss already. Got in too early but I wasn't able to monitor the market till the closing so that's the best choice I had today. Sell on rally as momentum in the weekly charts is showing relative weakness.
AP is looking very nice also as its MACD shows accompanied by relative trend strength. Pull backs to 24 is a buy but should wait for positive momentum to build up first as weekly charts is showing relative weakness.
RFM is still showing weakness on both daily and weekly charts so it is best to range trade it, support at 1.65 and resistance at 2.00.
PX looks like its about to bottom out on both weekly and daily charts so bounces from the support at 14 should warrant a buy with a immediate resistance at 16. If it continues to move this way, it might form a symmetrical triangle which would also warrant a buy at breakout.
MEG is about to retest its previous support at 2.20. Bounces from the said support should warrant a buy with immediate resistance at around 2.36 levels as it looks like it is forming a descending triangle. Breaking down the support at 2.20 would point to the next support at 2.13-2.15 levels. Breaking up the recent high at 2.42 would suggest the continuation of the further advance to the original target and should also warrant a buy. MACD is suggesting sideways to down movement in the short term.
DMC is also worth watching and buy as close to 31 as possible. Correction and bounces at 16.50-17 levels should warrant a buy on AT.
ALI looks like it got raped again today losing around 10% in three days.
I've not been writing much as I have been reviewing my previous trades, both gainers and losers to refine my system further. I am also currently transferring my funds to Citiseconline so my funds are generally frozen at the moment except for some that I've left on my live broker.
Bought AGI today at 10.84 with the remaining 30% of my active capital as I saw CLSA gobbling the shares up to 10.90 but wasn't able to sustain its buying before closing at 10.66 today. So that's 1.6% paper loss already. Got in too early but I wasn't able to monitor the market till the closing so that's the best choice I had today. Sell on rally as momentum in the weekly charts is showing relative weakness.
AP is looking very nice also as its MACD shows accompanied by relative trend strength. Pull backs to 24 is a buy but should wait for positive momentum to build up first as weekly charts is showing relative weakness.
RFM is still showing weakness on both daily and weekly charts so it is best to range trade it, support at 1.65 and resistance at 2.00.
PX looks like its about to bottom out on both weekly and daily charts so bounces from the support at 14 should warrant a buy with a immediate resistance at 16. If it continues to move this way, it might form a symmetrical triangle which would also warrant a buy at breakout.
MEG is about to retest its previous support at 2.20. Bounces from the said support should warrant a buy with immediate resistance at around 2.36 levels as it looks like it is forming a descending triangle. Breaking down the support at 2.20 would point to the next support at 2.13-2.15 levels. Breaking up the recent high at 2.42 would suggest the continuation of the further advance to the original target and should also warrant a buy. MACD is suggesting sideways to down movement in the short term.
DMC is also worth watching and buy as close to 31 as possible. Correction and bounces at 16.50-17 levels should warrant a buy on AT.
ALI looks like it got raped again today losing around 10% in three days.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Market closed by 16 points lower in today day's session after gaining a hefty 76 points yesterday. Anyway, I posted my view on the market today so there.
As I've suspected, most of my favorite stocks are moving sideways. AGI, MPI, MEG, and FLI moved sideways today after advancing around 5% in the past two sessions. The only one that advanced strongly today is RFM. It looks like it has awakened from its six-week slumber. I can still remember my trading plan for RFM!
MPI could possibly forming an ascending triangle formation though. A convincing breakout at 4 should warrant a buy.
As I've suspected, most of my favorite stocks are moving sideways. AGI, MPI, MEG, and FLI moved sideways today after advancing around 5% in the past two sessions. The only one that advanced strongly today is RFM. It looks like it has awakened from its six-week slumber. I can still remember my trading plan for RFM!
MPI could possibly forming an ascending triangle formation though. A convincing breakout at 4 should warrant a buy.
Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP)
Ten-Year Daily Chart PSEi
The previous advance from 3600 level was succeeded by continuous 1% gain on a daily average, breaking the previous high at 3896, before meeting slight resistance at the psychological resistance at 4000 which caused choppy movements in the recent advances. The breaking of the 4000 psychological resistance by 3% suggests that the current uptrend is still good and it is simply resting before heading back up.
Current MACD reading is suggesting that the recent high is currently at the peak of the uptrend as it has relatively the same MACD reading as the previous high at 3896 which is also confirmed by the current DMI reading.
The fast MACD line has crossed below the slower MACD line suggesting that there would be a consolidation in the short to medium term. Chances of making a combination of correction-consolidation is relatively average, possibly a retest of the now current psychological support at 4000 before heading back up.
There is a Momentum-Rate of Change to Price divergence, further confirmed the short to medium term consolidation being suggested by the MACD and DMI readings.
The market is now trying to break into the old support line (current resistance).
Support (Fibonacci Retracements): 4055 - 3943 - 3864
Psychological Support: 4000 - 3896
The previous advance from 3600 level was succeeded by continuous 1% gain on a daily average, breaking the previous high at 3896, before meeting slight resistance at the psychological resistance at 4000 which caused choppy movements in the recent advances. The breaking of the 4000 psychological resistance by 3% suggests that the current uptrend is still good and it is simply resting before heading back up.
Current MACD reading is suggesting that the recent high is currently at the peak of the uptrend as it has relatively the same MACD reading as the previous high at 3896 which is also confirmed by the current DMI reading.
The fast MACD line has crossed below the slower MACD line suggesting that there would be a consolidation in the short to medium term. Chances of making a combination of correction-consolidation is relatively average, possibly a retest of the now current psychological support at 4000 before heading back up.
There is a Momentum-Rate of Change to Price divergence, further confirmed the short to medium term consolidation being suggested by the MACD and DMI readings.
The market is now trying to break into the old support line (current resistance).
Support (Fibonacci Retracements): 4055 - 3943 - 3864
Psychological Support: 4000 - 3896
Monday, October 4, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Market closed 76 points higher today at 4188. Looks like the eleven-day consolidation finished yesterday.
Got whipsawed in MEG terribly as it closed at 2.39 today but you have to follow the plan. /sadface
Current position in DGTL is still lower by 7 centavos in six days. Didn't do much today except to watch the tape the whole time. I'm currently looking to range-trade some stocks if there is a viable trade setup.
I also found out a major flow in my current money management. It seems like I am exposing too much of my trading capital per trade!
Anyway, I am reading inverted charts again to see if the current trends and price movements are still valid.
Got whipsawed in MEG terribly as it closed at 2.39 today but you have to follow the plan. /sadface
Current position in DGTL is still lower by 7 centavos in six days. Didn't do much today except to watch the tape the whole time. I'm currently looking to range-trade some stocks if there is a viable trade setup.
I also found out a major flow in my current money management. It seems like I am exposing too much of my trading capital per trade!
Anyway, I am reading inverted charts again to see if the current trends and price movements are still valid.
Hello Monday!
Hello Monday! Looks like we're still poised for further consolidation-correction this week, courtesy of the crazy 500+ point jump this past month, plus no new news to push the prices. Quarterly company reports would be getting out sometime this month so there might be price action when that happens.
JGS is looking good as the IPO of Cebu Pacific is near. I might take a position here. Let's see how it goes tomorrow.
JGS is looking good as the IPO of Cebu Pacific is near. I might take a position here. Let's see how it goes tomorrow.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Sold MEG and FGEN for a significant loss today and I've pent all my of my gains from last month in three weeks. However, I found out what's wrong with my trades this month and market is not acting up within my expectations so I moved out.
I'll be watching the market for the meantime.
Back to square one. Synchronizing my trading month with actual months. My mind set is not really for medium term so I am going to use a shorter time frame now. No more trades for this week.
I'll be watching the market for the meantime.
Back to square one. Synchronizing my trading month with actual months. My mind set is not really for medium term so I am going to use a shorter time frame now. No more trades for this week.
Food for thought
Looking back at my previous trades these past three weeks or so made me realize that I have been trading very badly as all of them are traded against my trading rules. I found out that I have been forcing money out of the market.
60% of what I gained on my first month, I already gave back to Ms. Market.
Goddammit, this is so frustrating.
Stocks go up in a bull market eventually. But timing and finding the best trades are far better than putting money recklessly.
I need to get out of the market to clear my system!
I wont be updating my trades for the mean time(more likely not on time) as I am keeping records on real paper now but I'll try to post charts from time to time to find good trades.
60% of what I gained on my first month, I already gave back to Ms. Market.
Goddammit, this is so frustrating.
Stocks go up in a bull market eventually. But timing and finding the best trades are far better than putting money recklessly.
I need to get out of the market to clear my system!
I wont be updating my trades for the mean time(more likely not on time) as I am keeping records on real paper now but I'll try to post charts from time to time to find good trades.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market was flat for the entire session before succumbing to further profit taking across the board, closing 13 points lower from yesterday's close at 4111. Top gainers for today are mostly penny stocks, UPM with the most significant volume but the value is still pathetic.
MEG fell to a low of 2.27 before closing at 2.29, lower by 0.43% from yesterday's closing. Rebound should be any time this week as ROC is pointing up although on a weaker momentum. Sell on rally would probably the best thing to do if momentum weakens further.
DGTL fell to a low of 1.59, same as yesterday's low before closing higher by 1.25% at 1.62. The stock formed a bullish harami-tweezer bottom, which is confirmed by ROC pointing up and momentum build up so I am expecting it to advance again in the coming days.
FGEN continued to consolidate in today's session as there are strong selling pressure whenever it reaches 14. ROC is pointing up but momentum seems to weaken so it might consolidate further at best. However, if the resistance at 14 is taken out convincingly, expect it to advance further with next resistance at 16.
Weekly charts of all three are calling for sell at rallies. It might be the best thing to do so I can assess the market better and take better position.
2-centavo paper loss in MEG - 13 trading days
7-centavo paper loss in DGTL - 4 trading days
10-centavo paper loss in FGEN - 3 trading days
I need to re-write my trading plan!
MEG fell to a low of 2.27 before closing at 2.29, lower by 0.43% from yesterday's closing. Rebound should be any time this week as ROC is pointing up although on a weaker momentum. Sell on rally would probably the best thing to do if momentum weakens further.
DGTL fell to a low of 1.59, same as yesterday's low before closing higher by 1.25% at 1.62. The stock formed a bullish harami-tweezer bottom, which is confirmed by ROC pointing up and momentum build up so I am expecting it to advance again in the coming days.
FGEN continued to consolidate in today's session as there are strong selling pressure whenever it reaches 14. ROC is pointing up but momentum seems to weaken so it might consolidate further at best. However, if the resistance at 14 is taken out convincingly, expect it to advance further with next resistance at 16.
Weekly charts of all three are calling for sell at rallies. It might be the best thing to do so I can assess the market better and take better position.
2-centavo paper loss in MEG - 13 trading days
7-centavo paper loss in DGTL - 4 trading days
10-centavo paper loss in FGEN - 3 trading days
I need to re-write my trading plan!
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market was down by 18 points during the session before closing 1 point higher at the end of the session. CMT was the only one to advance significantly with high volume. Other significant gainers for today are EDC, AP, GLO and MER.
Could it be that foreign funds are now rotating back into the power sector? CMT is still play and up until now, I don't know what's the story behind its movement. They are under construction-infrastructure sector of the market but I honestly haven't seen any of their projects.
I am disappointed somehow on my performance these previous weeks. Jumping on the mining train too late, FGEN and DGTL(although a little late too) behaving opposite of what I've expected while following my trading plan. Maybe I should sell all positions so I can assess the market better. MEG is my saving grace as it is behaving the way I've expected it to do.
I was expecting FGEN to advance in today's session but it met a strong selling pressure instead and with relatively high volume too. Hopefully the resistance at 14 gets broken this week so it can advance further although I doubt it because foreign funds are net sellers the last seven days including today.
The selling continued today in DGTL plus foreign funds also started selling. The gap it made last Friday is being threatened to be filled tomorrow. Ready to cut. Again.
As I've expected, MEG touched my personal support at 2.26-2.28 but its low for today at 2.25 was 1 centavo lower from my support. Anyway, my personal support defended the said level as MEG closed at 2.30, 1 centavo lower from my entry. It could advance again anytime by now as my technical indicators are pointing. The net foreign selling these past seven days are making me feel uneasy though.
All three stocks looks bad on the weekly chart so I will try to sell all of them in rallies.
The possible reason why I am losing money this previous week is I could be possibly forcing money out of the market.
I've spent 60% of last month's gain already trying to figure out this market.
Could it be that foreign funds are now rotating back into the power sector? CMT is still play and up until now, I don't know what's the story behind its movement. They are under construction-infrastructure sector of the market but I honestly haven't seen any of their projects.
I am disappointed somehow on my performance these previous weeks. Jumping on the mining train too late, FGEN and DGTL(although a little late too) behaving opposite of what I've expected while following my trading plan. Maybe I should sell all positions so I can assess the market better. MEG is my saving grace as it is behaving the way I've expected it to do.
I was expecting FGEN to advance in today's session but it met a strong selling pressure instead and with relatively high volume too. Hopefully the resistance at 14 gets broken this week so it can advance further although I doubt it because foreign funds are net sellers the last seven days including today.
The selling continued today in DGTL plus foreign funds also started selling. The gap it made last Friday is being threatened to be filled tomorrow. Ready to cut. Again.
As I've expected, MEG touched my personal support at 2.26-2.28 but its low for today at 2.25 was 1 centavo lower from my support. Anyway, my personal support defended the said level as MEG closed at 2.30, 1 centavo lower from my entry. It could advance again anytime by now as my technical indicators are pointing. The net foreign selling these past seven days are making me feel uneasy though.
All three stocks looks bad on the weekly chart so I will try to sell all of them in rallies.
The possible reason why I am losing money this previous week is I could be possibly forcing money out of the market.
I've spent 60% of last month's gain already trying to figure out this market.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market stepped on my "Do not step" nerve as it closed 43.96 points higher courtesy of the big bad TEL gaining 1% today while the second liners that I am currently holding turned red at the end of the day. The market has finally closed 3% higher from the 4000-psychological barrier. It would be just a matter of days now to clear the uptrend in the long term.
MEG closed 1 centavo lower from my entry, showing a very strong selling pressure throughout the session which was accompanied by relatively high volume. ROC is still pointing down so my personal support at 2.26 to 2.28 will probably get hit. Weekly chart is suggesting medium term peak so I might sell on rally this week.
DGTL was also sold down the entire session closing 3 centavos lower from my entry at 1.66. This current behavior of this stock is something I can't understand(I still don't understand). A gap up followed which was accompanied with exceptional volume was immediately followed by a strong selling pressure with volume that was half of the previous session? Anyway, I am expecting the support from Friday's gap at 1.61 holds. Otherwise I would be cutting here again. Judging from other stock behavior, consolidation in the short term is also possible.
Bought FGEN at 13.86 today from the proceeds of MA which I also sold at a loss today. It is currently resting at the resistance but with the ROC pointing up and the volume traded today, it would be safe to assume that it will be broken this week with a target of 14.90 in the short term. It closed today at 13.88 with two centavo gain.
2 losing trades out of 5 trades in two weeks. The 3 remaining positions are relatively unchanged.
MEG - eleven days.
DGTL - two days.
FGEN - one day.
Maybe I shouldn't be pushing my patience by holding long onto my current positions. Previous holding time are showing better performance as they showed gains instead of unchanged position/losses.
Do I need to sell all of my current holdings to make a better assessment of the general market condition? Currently no mentor for this kind of market condition.
MEG closed 1 centavo lower from my entry, showing a very strong selling pressure throughout the session which was accompanied by relatively high volume. ROC is still pointing down so my personal support at 2.26 to 2.28 will probably get hit. Weekly chart is suggesting medium term peak so I might sell on rally this week.
DGTL was also sold down the entire session closing 3 centavos lower from my entry at 1.66. This current behavior of this stock is something I can't understand(I still don't understand). A gap up followed which was accompanied with exceptional volume was immediately followed by a strong selling pressure with volume that was half of the previous session? Anyway, I am expecting the support from Friday's gap at 1.61 holds. Otherwise I would be cutting here again. Judging from other stock behavior, consolidation in the short term is also possible.
Bought FGEN at 13.86 today from the proceeds of MA which I also sold at a loss today. It is currently resting at the resistance but with the ROC pointing up and the volume traded today, it would be safe to assume that it will be broken this week with a target of 14.90 in the short term. It closed today at 13.88 with two centavo gain.
2 losing trades out of 5 trades in two weeks. The 3 remaining positions are relatively unchanged.
MEG - eleven days.
DGTL - two days.
FGEN - one day.
Maybe I shouldn't be pushing my patience by holding long onto my current positions. Previous holding time are showing better performance as they showed gains instead of unchanged position/losses.
Do I need to sell all of my current holdings to make a better assessment of the general market condition? Currently no mentor for this kind of market condition.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
DIGITAL TEL. PHILIPPINES, INC. (DGTL)
1 Year Daily Chart
Monthly, weekly and daily trends are up. Volume follows price movements (increases as price advances and decreases in price declines) so it is safe to assume the recent uptrend is healthy.
There is a reversed head and shoulder pattern that is visible in the monthly, weekly and daily charts, with the neckline at 1.64.
Broken neckline of reversed head and shoulder target: 2.33
Short term target: 1.85 (gap up target)
Support: 1.61
Major resistance: 2 - 2.44.
Monthly, weekly and daily trends are up. Volume follows price movements (increases as price advances and decreases in price declines) so it is safe to assume the recent uptrend is healthy.
There is a reversed head and shoulder pattern that is visible in the monthly, weekly and daily charts, with the neckline at 1.64.
Broken neckline of reversed head and shoulder target: 2.33
Short term target: 1.85 (gap up target)
Support: 1.61
Major resistance: 2 - 2.44.
Alsons Consolidated Resources (ACR)
Monthly Chart
Monthly trend is up as pointed by MACD above zero line and 10-MA is above 50-MA. MACD histogram is suggesting that the trend has just began.
A rising method candlestick pattern showed in the monthly charts suggesting further price advances in the intermediate term.
Weekly Chart
Broke out of downtrend early this month that started November last year. Recent up trend is confirmed by the crossing of the MACD line over the zero line. However, the 10-MA is still below the 50-MA.
Latest candlestick formation is a bullish belt hold which supports the idea of further price advance in the intermediate term.
Daily Chart
Daily trend is also up but recent doji candlestick formation suggests short term peak.
SUMMARY
Monthly and weekly charts are suggesting price advances in the intermediate term so declines in the daily charts should merit a buy. However, it would be better to wait for the price to bounce back before taking in a new position.
If the price consolidates in the current levels, price advancing to 1.35 would merit a buy.
Price advances are accompanied by increase in volume so it would be safe to assume that the recent uptrend is healthy.
Support: 1.21
Resistance:1.60; if broken
Target: 2.50
Monthly trend is up as pointed by MACD above zero line and 10-MA is above 50-MA. MACD histogram is suggesting that the trend has just began.
A rising method candlestick pattern showed in the monthly charts suggesting further price advances in the intermediate term.
Weekly Chart
Broke out of downtrend early this month that started November last year. Recent up trend is confirmed by the crossing of the MACD line over the zero line. However, the 10-MA is still below the 50-MA.
Latest candlestick formation is a bullish belt hold which supports the idea of further price advance in the intermediate term.
Daily Chart
Daily trend is also up but recent doji candlestick formation suggests short term peak.
SUMMARY
Monthly and weekly charts are suggesting price advances in the intermediate term so declines in the daily charts should merit a buy. However, it would be better to wait for the price to bounce back before taking in a new position.
If the price consolidates in the current levels, price advancing to 1.35 would merit a buy.
Price advances are accompanied by increase in volume so it would be safe to assume that the recent uptrend is healthy.
Support: 1.21
Resistance:1.60; if broken
Target: 2.50
Friday, September 24, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market today ended relatively flat as it closed only by 11.44 points higher from yesterday' s session.
Today, I bought DGTL at 1.69 but it closed 1 centavo lower at 1.68. I am not bothered with the small loss though as it made a gap up from yesterday's closing with exceptional volume, almost five times of its daily turnover this past week. The PAR-SAR in the weekly charts also pointed this week as a buy. Immediate resistance at 1.76 while the target of the gap today is at 1.89.
I also took a small position in MA at .029 but it closed at .026 so this is another loss for me. I bought both issues too early today but it can't be helped. I think that the last thirty minutes is really the best time to buy.
Hopefully I can get out alive in MA or with a smaller loss. Weekly PAR-SAR just pointed a buy signal last week so it could still advance by next week. The reason I am shaky in playing this issue is I am not familiar with its behavior.
I probably should have bought MEG instead of MA with the remaining funds for swing trading.
MEG gave a buy signal today. It's now 1.71% higher from my break-even point.
I think I can use the lower PAR-SAR line as an indicator where to add up positions if the stock is still trending up strongly.
Sitting on a 12.80% net paper loss in MA on a small position, 1 centavo loss in DGTL and 1.71% net paper gain.
Charts later!
Today, I bought DGTL at 1.69 but it closed 1 centavo lower at 1.68. I am not bothered with the small loss though as it made a gap up from yesterday's closing with exceptional volume, almost five times of its daily turnover this past week. The PAR-SAR in the weekly charts also pointed this week as a buy. Immediate resistance at 1.76 while the target of the gap today is at 1.89.
I also took a small position in MA at .029 but it closed at .026 so this is another loss for me. I bought both issues too early today but it can't be helped. I think that the last thirty minutes is really the best time to buy.
Hopefully I can get out alive in MA or with a smaller loss. Weekly PAR-SAR just pointed a buy signal last week so it could still advance by next week. The reason I am shaky in playing this issue is I am not familiar with its behavior.
I probably should have bought MEG instead of MA with the remaining funds for swing trading.
MEG gave a buy signal today. It's now 1.71% higher from my break-even point.
I think I can use the lower PAR-SAR line as an indicator where to add up positions if the stock is still trending up strongly.
Sitting on a 12.80% net paper loss in MA on a small position, 1 centavo loss in DGTL and 1.71% net paper gain.
Charts later!