Technical analysis is the only way to measure the emotional component of the market. We know that many times an ounce of emotion can be worth a pound of facts. How else to explain the sudden shift in the market without a change in the fundamentals?
-Steve Nison
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Technical Analysis
Personal Disclosure
The market continued to slide today, losing as much as 84.86 points during the early today before recovering at the later part of the session, losing only 22.81 points at closing. The market closed at 4124.54, lower by 0.55% from yesterday.
The market is now hovering above the psychological support at 4000. A bounce a from there would suggest the resumption of the uptrend. If it breaks 4000, it should hold at the previous high of 3896 levels.
SMB finally took a breather today after going up for the past 9 days straight, reaching an all time high of 31.90 before heavy profit taking occurred, pushing the stock down to a low of 22.50 before recovering some points, losing only 7.58% at the closing at 25.
AP recovered and closed strongly today, opening lower at 32.45 before closing at 33.95. Rising method candlestick pattern(bullish) was completed today plus bullish engulfing would suggest further advance in the short term, probably up til early next week.
AEV also recovered today, closing strongly at 38.50. Latest candlestick formation and momentum/roc are suggesting advances in the short term. However, there is a bearish divergence seen on its MACD suggesting that the next upswings wouldn't be as strong as before. Anyway, better watch out for bearish confirmations before taking profits.
AP personal target: P35
AEV personal target: P45
AP is up by 25.42%% within twenty-three trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 9.77% within twelve trading days.
The market is now hovering above the psychological support at 4000. A bounce a from there would suggest the resumption of the uptrend. If it breaks 4000, it should hold at the previous high of 3896 levels.
SMB finally took a breather today after going up for the past 9 days straight, reaching an all time high of 31.90 before heavy profit taking occurred, pushing the stock down to a low of 22.50 before recovering some points, losing only 7.58% at the closing at 25.
AP recovered and closed strongly today, opening lower at 32.45 before closing at 33.95. Rising method candlestick pattern(bullish) was completed today plus bullish engulfing would suggest further advance in the short term, probably up til early next week.
AEV also recovered today, closing strongly at 38.50. Latest candlestick formation and momentum/roc are suggesting advances in the short term. However, there is a bearish divergence seen on its MACD suggesting that the next upswings wouldn't be as strong as before. Anyway, better watch out for bearish confirmations before taking profits.
AP personal target: P35
AEV personal target: P45
AP is up by 25.42%% within twenty-three trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 9.77% within twelve trading days.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Profit taking extended today after rallying for two days early this weak, making the market lose 39.54 points, lower by 0.94% closing at 4147.35.
SMB had an unbelievable performance today as it closed 42.37% higher at 27.05, gaining an average of 178.87% within this month, reaching 100+ rsi at some point today. Nice parabolic spike for those who have. XD
SMC is showing relative strength this past week and it looks like it's forming a good trade setup.
AP declined by 1.64% today closing at 32.95. Indicators are suggesting further decline this week and late to early next week rebound.
AEV declined by 3.08% today closing at 37.80. Indicators are suggesting further decline this week and late to early next week rebound. Too bad I didn't get to sell yesterday.
AP is up by 21.73% within twenty-two trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 8.16% within eleven trading days.
SMB had an unbelievable performance today as it closed 42.37% higher at 27.05, gaining an average of 178.87% within this month, reaching 100+ rsi at some point today. Nice parabolic spike for those who have. XD
SMC is showing relative strength this past week and it looks like it's forming a good trade setup.
AP declined by 1.64% today closing at 32.95. Indicators are suggesting further decline this week and late to early next week rebound.
AEV declined by 3.08% today closing at 37.80. Indicators are suggesting further decline this week and late to early next week rebound. Too bad I didn't get to sell yesterday.
AP is up by 21.73% within twenty-two trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 8.16% within eleven trading days.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Nickel Asia (NIKL) and some lazy updates
The market opened the week lower by 16.71 points closing at 4186.89. The weekly chart is looking relatively weak while the daily chart is relatively toppish as of the moment, suggesting further sideways movement with downward bias.
NIKL was listed today in the PSE showed relative strength on the opening, managing a high of 19.40 before closing at 16.50 caused by profit taking. Can't blame them for taking it, more or less 29% gain a day is very hard to ignore.
NIKL IPO is priced at the lower end of its range at P15.
NIKL Intraday Chart:
Breaking above 17 could possibly reverse its intraday trend. However it could also meet immediate resistance at 18.20 levels.
I was trying to lock my profits in AEV today but all of my broker's line were busy 10:30 am onwards.
Anyway, one of my other technical indicators that I am still testing seems to be reliable when to take profits. I will test it further - and back test it later.
AP is up by 23.76% within twenty-one trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 11.24% within ten trading days.
NIKL was listed today in the PSE showed relative strength on the opening, managing a high of 19.40 before closing at 16.50 caused by profit taking. Can't blame them for taking it, more or less 29% gain a day is very hard to ignore.
NIKL IPO is priced at the lower end of its range at P15.
NIKL Intraday Chart:
Breaking above 17 could possibly reverse its intraday trend. However it could also meet immediate resistance at 18.20 levels.
I was trying to lock my profits in AEV today but all of my broker's line were busy 10:30 am onwards.
Anyway, one of my other technical indicators that I am still testing seems to be reliable when to take profits. I will test it further - and back test it later.
AP is up by 23.76% within twenty-one trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 11.24% within ten trading days.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Price is War
A market making new highs is rising, Buyers are winning
A market making new lows is falling, Sellers are winning
When is the war on? When are the troops sleeping?
Price is territory that Buyers and Sellers are at War for.
What would be a probable and realistic price goal for the Buyers to achieve if they won the battle today?
What would be a probable and realistic price goal for the Seller's to achieve if they won the battle today?
You will choose a side to be on, you will watch to see who early on is winning the battle, and make your choice, you will know where your choice would be proved wrong, you will expect to take the earliest profit that justifies your risk in relation to the overall goal of the team you have chosen.
If your team is really kicking the other's ass, you might go for a larger portion of their probable win for the day.
If you were wrong, you were wrong, you will fight another day.
You will not become Happy when you win, you will not become Angry when you lose.
You will be right slightly more than you are wrong, and you will judge your risk and reward based upon this fact.
You will gain slow and steady equity.
A market making new lows is falling, Sellers are winning
When is the war on? When are the troops sleeping?
Price is territory that Buyers and Sellers are at War for.
What would be a probable and realistic price goal for the Buyers to achieve if they won the battle today?
What would be a probable and realistic price goal for the Seller's to achieve if they won the battle today?
You will choose a side to be on, you will watch to see who early on is winning the battle, and make your choice, you will know where your choice would be proved wrong, you will expect to take the earliest profit that justifies your risk in relation to the overall goal of the team you have chosen.
If your team is really kicking the other's ass, you might go for a larger portion of their probable win for the day.
If you were wrong, you were wrong, you will fight another day.
You will not become Happy when you win, you will not become Angry when you lose.
You will be right slightly more than you are wrong, and you will judge your risk and reward based upon this fact.
You will gain slow and steady equity.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Quick Update!
The market rebounded nicely today, gaining 2.01% closing at 4203.60. MACD is crossing back over the zero line and rate of change is still pointing up suggesting further advances in the short term. The index also closed above its 10SMA confirming the advance.
My positions in AP and AEV continued to perform very well in today's session, AP gaining another 5.33% today closing at 33.60. It opened higher today, forming a gap that is pointing to 36.60 as a target on the next advance. However, momentum is relatively at peak now while rate of change has started to decline suggesting an incoming correction in the short term. Look for possible entries near 31.90 to 32.80 levels.
AEV gained 4.44% closing at 40 today. Rate of change and momentum are both toppish suggesting a correction in the short term.
Personal target for AP is 35. Current price is shy by P1.40 from target.
Personal target for AEV is 45. Current price is shy by P5 from target.
AP is up by 24.13%% within twenty trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 14.09% within nine trading days.
My positions in AP and AEV continued to perform very well in today's session, AP gaining another 5.33% today closing at 33.60. It opened higher today, forming a gap that is pointing to 36.60 as a target on the next advance. However, momentum is relatively at peak now while rate of change has started to decline suggesting an incoming correction in the short term. Look for possible entries near 31.90 to 32.80 levels.
AEV gained 4.44% closing at 40 today. Rate of change and momentum are both toppish suggesting a correction in the short term.
Personal target for AP is 35. Current price is shy by P1.40 from target.
Personal target for AEV is 45. Current price is shy by P5 from target.
AP is up by 24.13%% within twenty trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 14.09% within nine trading days.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Trade Setup: AEV - Status: Open
Here is the most recent trade that I did:
DMC
Sold it at 39.40 because:
1. Declining volume during advances;
2. Bearish divergence on ROC; and
3. It was showing relative weakness through the entire session that day before getting pushed up at the closing which also happened the next day;
4. Found a trade setup in AEV (plus earnings report factor):
which I believe I was right as it immediately showed profits the next day despite of the strong selling pressure. I am expecting it to advance strongly once the selling stops(possibly up until mid week).
Took a position at 34.10.
Up to date comparison between the two stocks:
DMC
Sold it at 39.40 because:
1. Declining volume during advances;
2. Bearish divergence on ROC; and
3. It was showing relative weakness through the entire session that day before getting pushed up at the closing which also happened the next day;
4. Found a trade setup in AEV (plus earnings report factor):
which I believe I was right as it immediately showed profits the next day despite of the strong selling pressure. I am expecting it to advance strongly once the selling stops(possibly up until mid week).
Took a position at 34.10.
Up to date comparison between the two stocks:
Random observation
Our favorite gurus in our favorite trading sites are not posting any updates on their recent trades. It's almost two weeks now since their on their track record.
What could have happened to them this past week?
What could have happened to them this past week?
Forming a bottom
The market recovered some points that it lost yesterday in today's session, closing higher by 1.26% at 4120.62. Most of us would be wondering if we have found a support at current levels already. Maybe we have, maybe we still haven't and the landslide might still continue up to 4000 or even at the major support at 3896. Best we could do is protect our profits and keep our stops tight.
MACD has finally dropped below the zero line suggesting further corrective-consolidation in the short term. Rate of change and momentum are both building up suggesting a bounce is possible in the short term. Weekly chart is also confirming the daily ROC and momentum.
Top gainers today with relevant volume are SMB +16.43%, AEV +7.89%, ACR +6.38%, AGI +5.47%, SMC +5.32%, AP +4.76%, CEB +4.50% and AC +4.38% while MK is up again by 50% with insignificant volume. Majority of the losers today are third liners.
AP and AEV both performed really well today, AP gaining 4.76% closing at 31.90 while AEV gained a hefty 7.89% closing at 38.30. I'm going to hold them for a while as they are performing very well, specially during last week's heavy decline.
Personal target for AP is 35.
Personal target for AEV is 45.
AP is up by 17.85% within nineteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 9.24% within eight trading days.
Just holding on tight and keeping a tight trailing stop this time.
MACD has finally dropped below the zero line suggesting further corrective-consolidation in the short term. Rate of change and momentum are both building up suggesting a bounce is possible in the short term. Weekly chart is also confirming the daily ROC and momentum.
Top gainers today with relevant volume are SMB +16.43%, AEV +7.89%, ACR +6.38%, AGI +5.47%, SMC +5.32%, AP +4.76%, CEB +4.50% and AC +4.38% while MK is up again by 50% with insignificant volume. Majority of the losers today are third liners.
AP and AEV both performed really well today, AP gaining 4.76% closing at 31.90 while AEV gained a hefty 7.89% closing at 38.30. I'm going to hold them for a while as they are performing very well, specially during last week's heavy decline.
Personal target for AP is 35.
Personal target for AEV is 45.
AP is up by 17.85% within nineteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 9.24% within eight trading days.
Just holding on tight and keeping a tight trailing stop this time.
Must read for those who are new to the stock market!
http://pinoy777.wordpress.com/2010/07/
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Check it out 'yo!
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Headlights of the approaching train
The market lost more than what it gained last Monday, lower by 1.69% closing at 4069.31, fast approaching the psychological support that is placed at 4000. Looks like the light that we saw last Monday was the headlight of the incoming train.
SMB +10.58% , LND 6.94% and APC 6.85% are today's top gainers with significant volume while URC -6.02%, MEG -5.36%, MER -4.85%, and JFC 4.35% are today's top losers with significant volume.
Seems like my trade setups that formed last Monday are fakes. I'm not willing to bet on them just yet.
For the meantime, I won't be in a hurry to make trades yet although I'll be holding onto my current positions as both are still showing some resilience against the current landslide.
AP is up by 12.49% within eightteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 1.22% past break-even point at 35.07.
SMB +10.58% , LND 6.94% and APC 6.85% are today's top gainers with significant volume while URC -6.02%, MEG -5.36%, MER -4.85%, and JFC 4.35% are today's top losers with significant volume.
Seems like my trade setups that formed last Monday are fakes. I'm not willing to bet on them just yet.
For the meantime, I won't be in a hurry to make trades yet although I'll be holding onto my current positions as both are still showing some resilience against the current landslide.
AP is up by 12.49% within eightteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 1.22% past break-even point at 35.07.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Light at the end of the tunnel
The index has finally broken its 6-day losing streak by closing higher by 1.54% at 4139. Hopefully, the market would simply consolidate for the mean time and build a stronger base before heading back up.
Despite of the strong rally of the market today, AP continued to consolidate gaining 0.33% closing at 30.50. Technical indicators are showing slight divergence from each other suggesting further consolidation in the short term.
AEV closed higher today at 35.50 gaining 2.01% in today's session. Rate of change is pointing up while the MACD is weakening and pointing down suggesting that a rally is overdue in the short term as the consolidation might be overextended.
There are good looking trade setups that formed yesterday. Might be worth looking into AGI, DMC and MBT.
AP is up by 12.68% within seventeen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 1.22% past break-even point at 35.07.
Despite of the strong rally of the market today, AP continued to consolidate gaining 0.33% closing at 30.50. Technical indicators are showing slight divergence from each other suggesting further consolidation in the short term.
AEV closed higher today at 35.50 gaining 2.01% in today's session. Rate of change is pointing up while the MACD is weakening and pointing down suggesting that a rally is overdue in the short term as the consolidation might be overextended.
There are good looking trade setups that formed yesterday. Might be worth looking into AGI, DMC and MBT.
AP is up by 12.68% within seventeen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 1.22% past break-even point at 35.07.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Blood bath!
The market continued to decline for six consecutive days, losing another 1.63% closing lower at 4076, losing a total of 7.52% within this week. Gainers are mostly third liners while URC, PNB, VLL and BEL are the top losers in yesterday's session.
Technical indicators are now suggesting further decline in the short and medium term, as also suggested by the breaking of 10-20-50 SMAs. However, momentum are slowly building up strength so a rebound would be possible in the short term.
Psychological support at 4000.
Major support at 3896.
AP and AEV continued to simply consolidate, AP closing slightly lower by 1.30% at 30.40 and AEV closing slightly higher by 0.58% at 34.80. Technical indicators for both are still pointing down suggesting further corrective-consolidation in the short term.
React accordingly until proven otherwise.
AP is up by 12.31% within sixteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 70 centavos within six trading days. Break-even at 35.07.
Technical indicators are now suggesting further decline in the short and medium term, as also suggested by the breaking of 10-20-50 SMAs. However, momentum are slowly building up strength so a rebound would be possible in the short term.
Psychological support at 4000.
Major support at 3896.
AP and AEV continued to simply consolidate, AP closing slightly lower by 1.30% at 30.40 and AEV closing slightly higher by 0.58% at 34.80. Technical indicators for both are still pointing down suggesting further corrective-consolidation in the short term.
React accordingly until proven otherwise.
AP is up by 12.31% within sixteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 70 centavos within six trading days. Break-even at 35.07.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Still no signs of life
The market continued to decline in today's session, losing another 53.16 points closing lower by 1.27% at 4144.41 with an intraday low of 4090 losing as much as 124 points during the entire session as selling was present across the board and most issues found relatively no support for the mean time.
The immediate support at 4150 was broken down today. If the index continues to break, next support is at the psych 4000 level and major support at 3896.
MACD reading is showing strong downward momentum suggesting further decline in the short term as also being confirmed by continued falling rate of change.
The market is now resting slightly above its 50SMA.
Top gainers for today with relative volume are AP +6.02%, AGI +1.85%, and ACR +1.44%. Top losers with relative volume are MER -7.91%, MPI -5.24%, URC -4.55%,
SM -4.52%, PNB -4.33%, FLI -3.68%, and JFC -3.32%.
Net foreign selling today amounted to P384344606.75.
AP continued to advance today with exceptional volume despite getting sold down during the intraday to a low of 29.25 before recovering at the closing at 30.80 gaining 6.02%. Technical indicators are still showing positive readings.
AEV simply continued to consolidate today, closing slightly higher at 34.60 gaining 1.02%. There is a divergence in its momentum and rate of change suggesting further consolidation in the short term.
Every stock that I put on my watch list this week showed relative weakness and unstable footing.
AP is up by 13.78% within fifteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 45 centavos within five trading days. Break-even at 35.07.
The immediate support at 4150 was broken down today. If the index continues to break, next support is at the psych 4000 level and major support at 3896.
MACD reading is showing strong downward momentum suggesting further decline in the short term as also being confirmed by continued falling rate of change.
The market is now resting slightly above its 50SMA.
Top gainers for today with relative volume are AP +6.02%, AGI +1.85%, and ACR +1.44%. Top losers with relative volume are MER -7.91%, MPI -5.24%, URC -4.55%,
SM -4.52%, PNB -4.33%, FLI -3.68%, and JFC -3.32%.
Net foreign selling today amounted to P384344606.75.
AP continued to advance today with exceptional volume despite getting sold down during the intraday to a low of 29.25 before recovering at the closing at 30.80 gaining 6.02%. Technical indicators are still showing positive readings.
AEV simply continued to consolidate today, closing slightly higher at 34.60 gaining 1.02%. There is a divergence in its momentum and rate of change suggesting further consolidation in the short term.
Every stock that I put on my watch list this week showed relative weakness and unstable footing.
continuation of price decline and/or consolidation suggests that one should avoid the stock for the mean time and/or until it shows a clear cut signal/confirmation.
AP is up by 13.78% within fifteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 45 centavos within five trading days. Break-even at 35.07.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
50 Trading Codes and Guidelines
1.Plan your trades. Trade your plan.
2. Keep records of your trading results.
3. Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
4. Don’t take the market home.
5. Continually set higher trading goals.
6. Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.
7. Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.
8. Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for studying the markets.
9. Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.
10. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.
11. Limit your losses – use stops!
12. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
13. Place the stop at the time you make your trade.
14. Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.
15. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
16. Losses make the trader studious – not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.
17. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.
18. Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined set of rules.
19. Remember that a bear market will take back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.
20. Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.
21. You must have a program, you must know your program, and you must follow your program.
22. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.
23. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market.
24. The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point.
25. The difference between winners and losers isn’t so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.
26. In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.
27. Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the golden touch do not talk about their success.
28. Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.
29. Accept failure as a step towards victory.
30. Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a profit? Forget it even quicker! Don’t let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work.
31. One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity always lies through the open door.
32. The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is safe. When he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.
33. It’s much easier to put on a trade than to take it off.
34. If a market doesn’t do what you think it should do, get out.
35. Beware of large positions that can control your emotions. Don’t be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.
36. Never add to a losing position.
37. Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.
38. You must believe in yourself and your judgement if you expect to make a living at this game.
39. In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be – up or down.
40. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.
41. Never volunteer advice and never brag of your winnings.
42. Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss.
43. Standing aside is a position.
44. It is better to be more interested in the market’s reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself.
45. If you don’t know who you are, the markets are an expensive place to find out.
46. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
47. Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking your profit too soon. Don’t torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you. Chances are it won’t continue long. If it does, console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early reserved gains that you would have otherwise lost.
48. When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray – jump!
49. Lose your opinion – not your money.
50. Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.
2. Keep records of your trading results.
3. Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
4. Don’t take the market home.
5. Continually set higher trading goals.
6. Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.
7. Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.
8. Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for studying the markets.
9. Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.
10. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.
11. Limit your losses – use stops!
12. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
13. Place the stop at the time you make your trade.
14. Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.
15. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
16. Losses make the trader studious – not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.
17. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.
18. Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined set of rules.
19. Remember that a bear market will take back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.
20. Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.
21. You must have a program, you must know your program, and you must follow your program.
22. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.
23. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market.
24. The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point.
25. The difference between winners and losers isn’t so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.
26. In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.
27. Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the golden touch do not talk about their success.
28. Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.
29. Accept failure as a step towards victory.
30. Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a profit? Forget it even quicker! Don’t let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work.
31. One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity always lies through the open door.
32. The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is safe. When he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.
33. It’s much easier to put on a trade than to take it off.
34. If a market doesn’t do what you think it should do, get out.
35. Beware of large positions that can control your emotions. Don’t be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.
36. Never add to a losing position.
37. Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.
38. You must believe in yourself and your judgement if you expect to make a living at this game.
39. In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be – up or down.
40. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.
41. Never volunteer advice and never brag of your winnings.
42. Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss.
43. Standing aside is a position.
44. It is better to be more interested in the market’s reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself.
45. If you don’t know who you are, the markets are an expensive place to find out.
46. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
47. Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking your profit too soon. Don’t torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you. Chances are it won’t continue long. If it does, console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early reserved gains that you would have otherwise lost.
48. When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray – jump!
49. Lose your opinion – not your money.
50. Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.
Yikes!
The market continued to slide in today's session, dropping to a low of -92 points before recovering 24 points closing at 4197, significantly lower by 68.88 points from yesterday's closing. Today's decline is accompanied by relatively high volume, decliners outnumbering gainers from 23 to 116, with 36 unchanged.
The huge decline from today came from the sell down in AGI which dropped to a low of 9.80 before recovering up 10.80, recovering half of what it lost during the entire session, closing lower by 5.43%. DMC and MBT are also major contributors in today's decline as they lost 6.53% - closing at 35.05 - and 5.72% - closing at 75 - although on a relatively lower volume. Then most the remaining losers today came from the third liners while majority of the gainers today came from the third liners too, with the exception of JFC gaining 1.61% closing at 94.90.
Profit taking of the foreign brokerage houses is the main culprit in today's landslide, magnified by the lack of support among stocks as seen in their intraday movements.
AP continued to decline today, closing lower by 3.17% at 29.05. There weren't sufficient support seen intraday until closing which has around 2M shares on the bid side. Technical indicators are suggesting rebound in the next two days or so.
Initial target: P35
AEV also continued to decline today, closing slightly lower by 0.44% closing at 34.25. Technicals are still suggesting further decline in the short term. It could also move sideways as there is a clear sideways pattern seen on its chart.
Initial target: P45
AP is up by 7.32% within fourteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 15 centavos within four trading days. Break-even at 35.07.
The huge decline from today came from the sell down in AGI which dropped to a low of 9.80 before recovering up 10.80, recovering half of what it lost during the entire session, closing lower by 5.43%. DMC and MBT are also major contributors in today's decline as they lost 6.53% - closing at 35.05 - and 5.72% - closing at 75 - although on a relatively lower volume. Then most the remaining losers today came from the third liners while majority of the gainers today came from the third liners too, with the exception of JFC gaining 1.61% closing at 94.90.
Profit taking of the foreign brokerage houses is the main culprit in today's landslide, magnified by the lack of support among stocks as seen in their intraday movements.
AP continued to decline today, closing lower by 3.17% at 29.05. There weren't sufficient support seen intraday until closing which has around 2M shares on the bid side. Technical indicators are suggesting rebound in the next two days or so.
Initial target: P35
AEV also continued to decline today, closing slightly lower by 0.44% closing at 34.25. Technicals are still suggesting further decline in the short term. It could also move sideways as there is a clear sideways pattern seen on its chart.
Initial target: P45
AP is up by 7.32% within fourteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 15 centavos within four trading days. Break-even at 35.07.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Color of Money - Finance Manila
Been reading "Trading systems, methods and resources" thread in Finance Manila and found this:
But at the current bull market, it's almost impossible to find someone to compare notes with.
You have to design your strategy, based on your own profile. If you find someone who has the same profile as yours, then you can compare notes, and maybe you can learn from each other.
But at the current bull market, it's almost impossible to find someone to compare notes with.
Personal Disclosure
The market declined further today to 4266.45, closing lower by 29.17 points or 0.68%. Decliners outnumbered gainers, 30 to 81, with 36 unchanged.
Rate of change seems at the bottom already and a bounce is now possible in the short term.
Top gainers with significant volume today are MRC +8.82%, CEB +6.41%, and JFC +2.64% Top losers for today are ALCO -9.72% after gaining 21.35% yesterday, AGI -6.24%, and RFM -4.29%.
AEV finally caved in to further selling pressure, closing lower by 1.71% at 34.40. Declining momentum and rate of change suggests further decline in the short term with possible support at 33.50.
Possibly forming a ranged or an ascending triangle pattern.
Initial target: P45
AP remained strong in the current market condition, closing lower by 0.50% only, closing at 30. However, momentum and rate of change are still both declining suggesting further decline in the short term.
Possible support at 28.65-29.30 (gap) levels.
Initial target: P35
Will write an update on my watch list later.
AP is up by 10.83% within thirteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is slightly higher from entry(34.10) within three days. Break-even at 35.07.
Rate of change seems at the bottom already and a bounce is now possible in the short term.
Top gainers with significant volume today are MRC +8.82%, CEB +6.41%, and JFC +2.64% Top losers for today are ALCO -9.72% after gaining 21.35% yesterday, AGI -6.24%, and RFM -4.29%.
AEV finally caved in to further selling pressure, closing lower by 1.71% at 34.40. Declining momentum and rate of change suggests further decline in the short term with possible support at 33.50.
Possibly forming a ranged or an ascending triangle pattern.
Initial target: P45
AP remained strong in the current market condition, closing lower by 0.50% only, closing at 30. However, momentum and rate of change are still both declining suggesting further decline in the short term.
Possible support at 28.65-29.30 (gap) levels.
Initial target: P35
Will write an update on my watch list later.
AP is up by 10.83% within thirteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is slightly higher from entry(34.10) within three days. Break-even at 35.07.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Current Watchlist
DMC 6-month Daily chart
Retracement levels:
38.20%: 37.9249
50.00%: 36.9750
61.80%: 36.0251
MBT 6-month Daily chart
Retracement levels:
38.20%: 77.4262
50.00%: 75.5500
61.80%: 73.6738
MPI 6-month Daily chart
Retracement levels:
38.20%: 4.2108
50.00%: 4.1400
61.80%: 4.0692
SCC 6-month Daily chart
Retracement levels:
38.20%: 175.8100
50.00%: 170.5000
61.80%: 165.1900
The red circles suggests possible entry for the said stocks, using MACD and Rate of change as technical indicators to confirm entries.
Retracement levels should not be followed strictly but should only be used as a guide for possible entry. Use technical indicators together with the retracement levels to confirm the entries.
Buy signal maturity ranges from 1 to 6 days max; continuation of price decline and/or consolidation suggests that one should avoid the stock for the mean time and/or until it shows a clear cut signal/confirmation.
Retracement levels:
38.20%: 37.9249
50.00%: 36.9750
61.80%: 36.0251
MBT 6-month Daily chart
Retracement levels:
38.20%: 77.4262
50.00%: 75.5500
61.80%: 73.6738
MPI 6-month Daily chart
Retracement levels:
38.20%: 4.2108
50.00%: 4.1400
61.80%: 4.0692
SCC 6-month Daily chart
Retracement levels:
38.20%: 175.8100
50.00%: 170.5000
61.80%: 165.1900
The red circles suggests possible entry for the said stocks, using MACD and Rate of change as technical indicators to confirm entries.
Retracement levels should not be followed strictly but should only be used as a guide for possible entry. Use technical indicators together with the retracement levels to confirm the entries.
Buy signal maturity ranges from 1 to 6 days max; continuation of price decline and/or consolidation suggests that one should avoid the stock for the mean time and/or until it shows a clear cut signal/confirmation.