My Aunt is already giving up on the stock market. I think we are bound for a reversal now. A shallow correction before we head back up perhaps?

Scatter shot!

The index today closed somehow flat, losing a mere 10 points in comparison to other Asian markets losing more than 2%. Value turnover is average with another 200M worth of foreign selling.

The superstar of yesterday, AEV, continued to be the main drag of the index, losing another 3.22%. Joining the fray are PNB -3.26%, RFM -3.03%, and SECB -2.94%. Other losers with heavy volume are LND and CYBR losing 4.15% and 3.95% respectively.

Setting the balance off the losers are TEL +1.59%, MA and MAB with 9.38% and 6.06% respectively, Lopez stocks coming back to life led by LPZ +5.51% and FPH +4.59, MWC +4.07% after getting sold down the other day, followed by SMDC +3.26% and SMPH 2.94%.

If anyone has noticed, gainers and losers are pretty much still scattered, which leads me to the conclusion that the market is experiencing rotational trading. I believe that being said, buying and holding, even trending stocks, is still not the way to go.

With that being said, I would be writing less for the moment and trade more. I would be using the 3 short-term trading methods that I have been testing and refining for the past few months plus the doji setup.

Oil is back again to the 100 levels, a flag/pennant is forming on the daily chart suggesting a huge upswing in the short term. Gold has also broke slightly higher than its previous high at 1430 at 1431.

I have been not posting charts lately as I am starting to remove charting from my trading to some extent. I am still using the charts to remember the price movements as I have a terrible memory remembering actual figures. My trading decision is now mostly based on price movement.

It feels like trend following has dulled my senses. Or I am probably doing it wrong.

Good luck to all, specially to me! :))

The index closed lower from its high as profit taking in AEV pulled the index down. However, the spike in AEV caused most of the issues to rally today, negating the correction of AEV which left the market with 17 points.

Gainers for today is led by LND with massive volume, gaining 12.87% followed by PAX +11.32%, CEB +10.13%, ORE +8.61%, VLL +8.26%, ICT +6.73%, JFC +5.51%, PX +4.08% and MEG +3.88%.

Losers for today is led by AEV -7.45%, MA -5.88%, MAB -2.94% and NIKL -2.40%.

Best case scenario for AEV is to form a flag/pennant pattern.

The guy from ASIASEC, buying up at the close from last week, decided to sell at the close at 20.35. Buying up the stock to 20.90/20.80 and then selling at 20.35? This doesn't makes sense to me.

Going to trade actively now. Just waiting again for trading setups to appear. Hopefully, the market reaches 3900 levels before heading back down to confirm the sideways bias.

Asian markets closed higher today with an average of more than 1% gain, European markets are up by more than 1% too with the exception of FTSE, Futures are up by 0.48%.

Gold is up to 1414 while Oil has dropped again below 100, now trading at 97.

Speculating

People had been speculating that the sell down in several issues is due to the fact that they are shifting funds to AEV. Do you think that the big players are impulsive traders? Sounds pretty ridiculous.

Aboitiz!

The index has held above 3730 support and suggesting further advance/s in the short term. If the index meets resistance at 3900 levels, I would be expecting it to move sideways from that onwards, until it breaks a support/resistance.

Today's performance was led by AEV with a humongous gain of 17% for today, lifting
the index up by 29 points from -26 points with exceptionally high volume courtesy of AEV 3.8B turnover, followed by AP, AGI, MBT, TEL and SM.

Gainers is led by AEV +17.50%, followed by ORE +8.54%, PCOR +7.69%, GLO +7.58%,
SECB +6.44%, CEB +5.95%, CYBR 3.88% and AP +3.24%.

Losers is led by PX -9.84% after releasing the news of 100% increase in income for the 2010, ICT -8.08%, MWC -5.63%, JFC -5.49%, WEB -4.62% and VLL -4.11%.

TEL did completely the opposite of what I was expecting, losing 2.79% instead.

Totally missed out the action today in AEV. I was thinking whether to buy the 7k shares at 43 or not but I decided not to act on it. I would be very cautious to buy AEV now. A very long white candle with large volume could probably result into a blowout. MACD/RSI bearish divergences are both showing on the daily chart. Weekly chart is showing bearish RSI divergence too. With that being said, it is probably safer to trade it with a tight stop loss.

The volume in AEV today could mean a blowout or it could also mean a reversal already. Place your bets.

NIKL is still being bought up at the closing. A strong close at 22 or above would suggest that the demand for the issue is back.

Previous doji setups in CYBR is now up by 3.88%, MBT slightly higher, MPI slightly down, NIKL up by 3%, and SECB is now up by 5%. Removing the lagging MBT and MPI, issues with a doji setup produced profits after an average of 2 days, gaining an average of 3% during the holding period. 60% of winning rate with 3% average gain in 2 days after the doji setup, 40% chance of losing with minimal loss(commission and tax) within the same holding period. Profitable? Maybe the other positions would also turn out profitable after a few more days or so. Will monitor further to determine how long it would take to make them a winner/loser.

Recovering slightly.

I was out the entire day so I didn't get to monitor the market today.

The market barely moved today, gaining only 6 points against other Asian markets with an average of 1.10% gain, on a relatively higher value turnover.

Looking at the weekly chart of the index, I believe we just found support at the current levels. If, however, we drop below at the current levels, I would not be surprised to see the market to lose another 10% or so in the short term at the very least(3360 levels).

Gainers are pretty much scattered today from third liners to blue chips, led by MER +7.50%, ELI +5.56%, LND +4.97%, EEI +3.98%, NIKL +3.47, MWIDE -continued to buck the general market trend- +3.14%, PX +2.97% and RFM +2.50%.

Losers are led by the week's gainers MA -5.71%, MAB -2.86% and LC -3.33%. Majority of the losers are third liners with CMT -5.97%, VLL -3.23%, and SMPH -2.86% coming from the second and first liners.

I totally missed TEL's RSI reading yesterday as I am using a very short term settings for it. It's daily RSI reading dropped to 7.16, reaching its lowest reading in 11 years! If you are after it's dividend, it was at its safest(and cheapest too) level yesterday! My gulay. Weekly RSI reading suggest that it could still go head down a little further as its weekly lowest RSI reading is at 20.25, a mere 10 RSI points difference. But with the daily candlestick pattern is suggesting a sharp reversal already. I am just making a wild guess but I think it could gain around 10% by next week. This is a very wild prediction ha!

My hypothetical short coverings on AP and MER produced pretty good returns had I actually reversed position and went long in actual trading. That means my trading ideas do work!

NIKL finally recovered after the sell down during the week. Nickel price has decline in the world market and I am assuming that it could move sideways for the meantime. With that in mind, I would probably range trade for the mean time as I am now trying to avoid being stuck as much as possible.

Revisiting the doji setups, CYBR is now breakeven from entry point with 1.12 as a target, MBT is slightly down, MPI is unchanged but a strong close above 3.55 would suggest a further short term upswing, NIKL now up by 3% from entry while SECB is still down from entry point after opening higher right at the gap down resistance.

If you are observant enough you will see that the issues that closed higher than yesterday have a similar characteristic while the losing positions also have the common characteristic. So therefore, trading dojis with the characteristic of the winners will be traded and the losers will be scratched off the board.

Western markets are up by more than 1% tonight. Gold is still trading above 1400(1405) while Oil(WTI) has dropped below 100 again.

What do you make out of this?

Chart 1


Chart 2


Chart 3


Chart 4



What the title says, what do you make out of this charts? Up? Down? Sideways? Reversal?

I removed the price and name of the chart to lessen the bias in analyzing the issues.
Black candles indicate advances and white candles indicated declines.


Feed backs are more than welcome. Thanks in advance!

Nothing catchy

The market lost another 26 points today after recovering strongly yesterday, losing a total of 52 points in the past two days after the turmoil in Libya erupted. Value turnover has also dropped below the average of this week so there's probably no more sellers now as the index is now resting at the previous low. The market didn't get into the green today as I was expecting but the decline is within expected range.

Gainers for today is led by MA +9.38% after the rumors of the done-deal with MVP, followed by OPM and OV with +7.69% and 7.14% gains respectively due to the price surge of crude oil -breaking past 100 last night; and AEV gaining 3.71% for today and I have no idea why.

Losers are mostly composed of third liners again, with GLO being the heaviest of them all, losing 4.45% and the continuous selling in TEL caused it to decline further by 1.79%. I really believed that TEL was holding up at the 2300 levels the other day!

CYBR is now at its major support with doji losing 2%, MBT succumbed to profit taking after gaining around +2% during the day, MPI hardly changed, NIKL was bought up again at the closing(I wonder how long could ASIASEC keep this up) while SECB declined further by 1%.

1 unchanged, 1 winner and 2 loser with a net of 0.52% loss, not counting the unchanged. I think that the pattern has a low winning probability on the next day.

Let's see how will the patterns work out to the positive territory next week.

Crude oil(WTIC) broke past 100 last night and now trading at 98.90 while Gold is now above 1400 levels, trading at 1411.

And more panic.

We probably saw panic in its truest form today as the market opened lower(gap down) dropping to a whopping 70 points on the earlier part of the session before recovering 43 points on the later part, closing lower by 27 points only from yesterday. The Index held above the previous low at 3738. Taking the account of today's candlestick at the support, we might see the green side of the pasture tomorrow.

I was already panicking when I saw NIKL sold down immediately to 19.82 level. I wanted to close the position already! But then I was telling myself that if I sell it at that level(19.82) I would be selling it at a major support and that is not the right way to do it.

I really like seeing doji stars and small black candles at the bottom of a downtrend as they provide less riskier entries for short term trades and they usually provide at least a 5% gain for the trade.

CYBR, MBT, MPI, NIKL, and SECB forming possible bullish reversal patterns(short term) if they move up tomorrow. Hoping for a recovery tomorrow as majority of the issues are pretty much oversold already.

As I've written before, I am in the quest of catching the bigger fish. It seems like the big fish is trying to bite my arm off.

I am still hoping that majority has sold(cut their losses) their positions already.

ASIASEC is RSA/GSIS/SSS/Govt institutions broker pala.

Panic at the disco.

The market reacted to the turmoil in Middle East(Libya), causing the index to lose 53.37 points, lower by 1.39% with relatively lower turnover volume. No buyers perhaps? The index held better than its Asian counterparts who are now losing a little less than 2% on the average.

The gainers today with considerable volume are ANI - which is now resting at its 50EMA - gained another 5.96% today, probably just trying to catch more suckers in, MA/B with 3.33/3.44% gains respectively, LC with 1.20% - one fluctuation, and MWIDE with 1.60%.

Losers are pretty lot today, led by MEGW1 -7.21%, DFNN -5.98%, PCOR -5.30%,
MEG -4.27%, LND -3.70%, RLC -3.69% - probably because of its 1:2 rights offering at P10 coupled by the bearish market condition - and CYBR -3.67%.

TEL met another wave of selling losing 0.70%, SCC and MBT both losing 2.98%, AP -1.8%, AEV -2.33%. Other non-index issue loser includes NIKL -3.06%.

The only index gainer today is AC gaining 0.89% - gave me a buy signal at 341.

AP candlestick pattern looks profitable. I think today's pattern has a high probability of turning into a winner. AEV has yet to give a buy signal.

RFM looks exactly the opposite of AP so buy signal will probably be generated late this week to early next week.

NIKL got pretty much sold down at the opening, barely recovering at the closing. ASIASEC also started to shoot his own foot today. ASIASEC tried to push the issue up last Feb 16/17 buying 500k shares at the close. Today they crossed 500k shares. Did the guy got out already?

I could be mistaken that R&L is shorting the stock today as there were no short covering at the close. But if they are just purely profit-taking, why take profits at the lower end of the price range? Price difference from 23 is too wide for a stop. Hmmm..

I hope everyone who wanted to sell has already sold everything they have already.
Covered my hypothetical short positions in MER and AP today.

MER lost 2.35% and AP just lost on commission and taxes. Reverse positions tomorrow?


*I was actually scanning for possible trades last night. I was looking for long black candlesticks on the lower end of trading ranges for possible short term reversal plays and I was a little frustrated not to find any. It never occurred to me that I would see alot of them today. Ironically, I had it coming lol. Nothing is making sense in this market anymore suxlol

covering hypothetical short positions in MER and AP at the close.

R&L investment short of 306k shares of NIKL aev 20.55

Asian markets are now down by more than 1% except for Hang Seng. I doubt that our market will be spared from this bloodbath. Oil(WTI) closed at 93.65 higher by 8.64% and Gold closing at 1409.

European markets are down big time(more than 1%) amidst the turmoil in the Middle East (Libya).
Oil is now back to 90.25 levels gaining +4.70% and GOLD now 1405 up by 1.25%, 25 points away from its all time high of 1430 as of this writing.


I think I need gold's historical data so I can plot them on local gold producing issues if they are correlated or not.

Our market has been totally random with no correlation with DOW at all now. Up DOW, PSE down, down DOW, PSE down. Jezuz. /wrist

Uninteresting day

The market lost 13.80 points today on a lower value turnover, closing lower at 3837.

It is still a scattered market, with second liners leading the gainers with few third liners, led ANI +11.37%, DFNN +7.17%, RFM +4.97%, MWIDE +3.95%, PA +2.99%, LIHC +2.30%, and FOOD +2.25%.

Losers are also scattered among all sectors, led by LND -3.57%, NIKL -2.97%, ORE -2.86%, AP -2.83%, CMT -2.78%, and PCOR -2.58%. Other index heavyweights today are AEV, MEG, DMC, TEL, MBT, and MER, averaging 1% or so loss today.

MWIDE seems to be performing well in the current market condition after its IPO last Friday as it closed higher at 8.15 today.

ASIASEC gave away a pretty good amount of money today in MER as they sold it down to 220 before recovering right away, closing at 232. That's pretty nice profit for MER bidders. 5.45% gain in a day is not bad by simply waiting.

AEV and RFM looks attractive now.

NIKL could possibly drop another 2% or so before it starts heading back up. Waiting for nickel prices to turn back up.

*Ninja edit: Nickel just broke past its previous high of 28700 today(as posted on Bloomberg) and now trading at 29400, 0.9% higher from the previous session at 28250 so I really don't understand today's decline in NIKL.

Current market condition is probably not the right time to follow trend. Will swing trading produce better profits at current market situation?

ASIASEC is giving away money in MER!

Gold (EOD)

Looks like gold is poised to move up again. Pullbacks to the 50EMA is a buy.
No price projections for gold except the recent high of 1430 which provides a possible upside of 3.10% from the previous close.

MACD is forming lower highs and lower lows. Has gold already ran its course already?

No idea, just trying my TA on GOLD.

I reread Ben Graham's book again this afternoon and I found astoundingly similar principles with trend following on profitability and success, that is keeping everything simple.

It seems that I am on the right track since I have been trying to simplify my trading system, Simply put, I am trying to switch to a trend following system.

I still need to keep the system I am using now based on short term tech analysis though to cover up monthly expenses.

My money management still needs further refinement though.

I still feel that I am still missing something but that's what I can think of right now.

The easiest way of becoming a millionaire in the stock market

is to start as a multi-millionaire.