Blow off setup?

MA(daily): Getting ready for a blow off?




LC(weekly): Same setup? Volume's half way there.

Two consecutive fake buy signals in a row, yesterday was EDC and today in NIKL. Not that they hit my stops already though I still feel I am doing something wrong. Luckily, it's just the "GEO" fund I was using to poke around. I think I'd better stop chasing momentum like a headless chicken now.

Most of the issues right now appear very heavy or this is just the much needed correction? I think I was right on the overly bullish move of DMC yesterday. The momentum of JGS also come to a stop. No stops are hit so no selling yet.

After the huge drop in RFM yesterday, it made a nice recovery today. 5% in a day is nice but looking from its transactions, it appears to have wide spreads so I think I'll pass for the mean time.

What pulled down the market btw?

Missed the DMC train today. Damn. My calculated entry for DMC is 46.07. It's either I buy tomorrow IF it corrects(hopefully I am right in reading the overly bullish movement today) or I buy with the new-high-setup.

Turns out I read JGS right. Either I buy at the open tomorrow or apply new-high-setup too.

Isn't RFM undervalued already? FY10 income report came out today, growing by 71.4% and the stock drops by 7.95%? I do not understand. Charts later if I don't get too wrapped up in playing Dragon Age 2.

Sold GEO for coffee money. Ignored the buy signal today in ICT because there was a wide price spread when it was generated. Turned out I was wrong. Damn.

52-week new high on Friday rule

“The 52-week new highs on Friday rule” is usually applied to the market itself and not to an individual stock.

Rule number 1: On a new 52-week high, when the market closes at or close to its high on a Friday, buy long and go home long for the weekend.

Rule number 2: Exit the long position on the opening the following Tuesday.

Rule number 3: If the market opens lower on Monday, exit the position immediately.

Originally shared by Shoyu Ramen in Finance Manila. Hope he doesn't mind me posting this one out here(sharing to other people and for personal use). Will take this one down if he doesn't want other people posting his stuff.

*Originally from Ino.com. Click the title for the original video/lesson.

Alliance Global Group, Inc. (AGI)

Can you use trendlines/triangle s-r lines like this?

Is it just me or LCB's chart looks better than LC?

Gold ($GOLD - Continuous Contract (EOD)) Index

50-EMA trade setup on gold:



Bounce from RSI-50 is a bonus. Stop-loss depends on one's risk appetite.
Take profits when you're happy.

Damn missed the boat in SMC. I was expecting it to consolidate further, around 2 to 3 days, before recovering. It caught me off guard!!!

I finally got a buy signal from JGS I am comfortable with so I put up a relevant position in it. Added some more LC. BDO seems recovering already.

My LC in the PSE-STG is already up by 46.55%! Lol. If I only had the balls when it first made its "new high" then. Oh well.

GEO had a private placement today (950M shares) at par. I hope it doesn't gap tomorrow. I'll be putting my "barya" there tomorrow.

Market, please be good so I can buy my own place. <3

CEBU AIR, INC. (CEB)

Daily line chart:



Buy on pullback after breakout setup?
Resistance/Support @90 +3% bounce filter = buy stop @92.7

Not a recommendation to buy. Just thinking out loud.

Could I have been wrong in reading the price action in BDO? Position is down by 1.5% already. Stop loss is still not hit though. Hold? Should have bought more LC instead.

GLOBAL-ESTATE RESORTS, INC. (GERI)

Weekly line chart:



Potential double top as the trend has been pretty much extended already.

Gaps: Trading gaps.

FGEN: Gap acting as support. Gap is not filled.





PNX: Fade the gap. Gap filled.



MPI: Filling the gap.



SMC: Gap down. Fade the gap(?)



This post only shows how gaps act. Some doesn't get filled and act as support(FGEN). Some are filled a few weeks after building a base(PNX) while some gaps don't get filled outright. Sometimes, it takes a gap a really long time to get filled(MPI).

That being said, no one can really say how the gap in SMC would act. One thing is certain though, act when the opportunity says so. Not because a blogger says so or forum members say so but when your trading system says so.

Theory says that all gaps are filled, sooner or later. They say it's nature's way of things. :))
Once the gap is filled, price action resumes the direction of the gap.


*So if FGEN trades beyond 21 and the entire market crashes back, look to buy at 10.40-10.70 :)) (Just kidding).

SMC SMC SMC

SMC closed at 153 before when it was range trading around 150-180 range when I decided to test my system if it could be used for price prediction. This is done on the PSE trading game so there's no real money involved. Okay, now that being said, I put up a buy stop at 150 which got hit last 4/12/11 before closing at 153 that day. I think it was Livermore who said that if the price goes your way right after you put up a position, it means that you are on the right side of the market - which I believe.

Then, the company decided do a voluntary suspension on the issue the next day "to avoid manipulation". Clearly, that's a very noble intent as they were trying to protect their investors. Or so they said. A few days before the voluntary suspension was lifted, they finally announced that they are going to sell their secondary offering at the lower end at 110. That being said, it feels like they did exactly the opposite of what they said. They wanted to avoid other people manipulating their stock because they wanted to do it themselves. Lol.

Anyway, enough of my personal opinion. Let's look at the chart instead:



Before the suspension, range trade 150-170(180) with stop loss right below 150(5-10%) depending on one's risk appetite.

Going -30% after the suspension was lifted, what would be the right thing to do. Would you still hold? I don't know. This is the first huge-gap-down-case in my trading career. Daig pa ang basura stocks.

I think, the best way to deal with this(for people without position in SMC) is to fade the gap. After the dust settles and the price stabilizes, I would wait for a buy signal before putting up a position and sell a little lower than 150 so I wouldn't be with the people who still have 150+ wanting to get out. Pwede din kahit 10% lang masaya na ako :D

LEISURE & RESORTS WORLD CORP. (LR)

Two days with huge volume during a consolidation period. First day(4/19/11) are pretty much scattered buyers and sellers while the second day(4/28/11) came from the huge cross from 263(Venture Sec).

Huge volume in a consolidation period. Whatever that means, I do not know but I'm watching. No signals from my system yet.

**Too lazy to do the review on the ICT trade. Too busy watching Game of thrones!

Before and After!

Ha! New post! It's not issue/stock-tip related though. It's about my progression as a trader for the past year and a half.

Here's how my chart looked like when I started to study and practice technical analysis:



Don't forget that I also used candlestick analysis + RSI readings!


Now, here's how my chart looks like:



The candlestick settings are still there but just for aesthetic purposes only. No more trendlines or other technical indicators. You might ask how could you trade with technical analysis without using technical indicators. Well, what I am using now is simply a variation of TA, coupled with more solid trading rules in comparison to what I was doing before with all those technical indicators. Plus I wanted to keep everything as simple as possible. Hopefully, I would be able to trade without using charts anymore. You can call this progress right?

With that being said, I don't think I would be making/posting any technical analysis soon. Anyway, if you are practicing TA and still soliciting "guru" advices, I think you need to re-evaluate what you are doing.

I'll post a review on my trade on ICT using my current rules of trading vs candlestick, RSI and whatnots when I wake up tomorrow.

Happy trading!

Link!

Click the link. Also accepting requests!

My only regret is not putting much in CMT yesterday. And not buying JFC when it slid down.

Oh well, got to wait for the positions to move on their own.

My only regret is not putting much in CMT yesterday. Oh well, got to wait for the positions to move on their own.

Here's my portfolio in the PSE-AT Trading Game:



Majority of my position in AP are at 29.85 so I tried to squeeze in more shares as much as possible. Today's action was the confirmation for the buy signal I was having the past 2 days.

AT had a DMI buy signal today so I used the proceeds from DMC and MEG. Sold both for small losses.

I also added CMT today from the remaining cash from DMC and MEG.

The other stocks are the ones I bought before(2nd-3rd week of March).

Nakaka-2% na ako!

Trading Frequency- 35!