FX: Trial by fire

I am annoyed as hell today as my technically sound logic of shorting EURUSD today went "unprofitable".

This picture best describes what happened:



Missed 120 pips of profit on 20k units or $246. That trade could have made the week. Imagine if that was real money.

/ragequit

14.78 gap still unfilled in PCOR (today's low is 14.80). If gap is left unfilled, expect the next swing to head up to 16.76 which is also the "upper box" breakout target (16.80).

BEL: Consolidation breakout setup

PSEi: Heading towards new highs?

Obvious bearish divergence. If divergence is still present after 3 pushes to its high, take profits.
I am expecting a short term correction after breaking out of:

1) previous resistance - 4413
2)inverted head and shoulder pattern - target: 5095 (695 points); however, the pattern is too big to be deemed accurate so the index would either fall short or overshoot the target;
bulls are hoping to overshoot the target so everybody would be happy.

Breakout seems legit as the accompanying volume is exceptionally high(7+Bil TO) today
As for the short term correction, I am hoping for a shallow one so there would be more steam for the next leg.

Index weekly:

Breakout(new high) entries

BDO : 63.30
URC : 44.65
PCOR : 19.24

PCOR: Correction to 14.78 before continuing?

Breakout entry SMDC @8.50.

I am surprised that AGI is still holding up at current levels but looks like 11/50SMA are holding up. Short if the closing tomorrow is lower than today's close.

MPP of ICT held. If selling continues to prevent the price from breaking past this level, expect a breakdown.

Calculated breakout entry for PX is at 21.01 but RSI is not confirming any breakout. Pretty wide trading range 18-21 for the mean time.

Calculated breakout entry for AT is at 20.75. But at the current rate of ascent, the price appears to be the short term peak. Look to position at the second gap(19-19.24).

LC/B barely moved today while AT and PX jumped with 4+% gains. I think PX will enter a parabolic run when it closes higher than 21.75.

Issues that are lingering just above 50SMA are ICT, MBT. NIKL appears to be forming a base.

The index appears to be at its immediate resistance(50SMA+50RSI).

Not much interesting moves on the PSE so I am still practicing on trading FX(EURUSD and XAUGLD pairs) on my free time. I still get frustrated from time to time as I continually forgets my basic trading rules :))

Forex trading appears to be more promising nonetheless if done properly. There would be no more need to wait for quarterly earnings report.

I asked around again the local forums with regards to forex trading. Let's see who would even bother answering :))

I think Gold($GOLD) is preparing to challenge the 1574 levels again in the short term. Think long!

TEL: Divergence

Divergence: Deal or no deal?


The only thing that disturbs me with TEL is the flat price action in between divergences, inclining me to believe this action as a fake one.

I am having trouble seeing what's real with all the superficial closings last week.

No meaningful moves with LC/B while most of the oversold issues rallied today.

LC is being slightly bearish on the 5-min chart while LCB is slightly bullish on the same time frame.

This might suggest further consolidation in the short term. Still waiting for a rally with huge range/bearish RSI divergence.

AT broke and closed above its box resistance @18, looking forward to 19.50 as a short term target.

MEG rallied(DCB?) off its MS1 today. Short term target @2.14 levels(MPP and 50EMA).

Most of the gainers today, I cannot read.

Started another FX demo account with US$3k. Applying proper stops and money management now after turning a winning trade with the previous account into a loser.

I think I kind of getting it not to keep positions overnight. From a $700 gain from the long position in EUR-USD last Friday that turned into a $200 loss today as the initial stop loss was hit, I feel disheartened. I probably should have placed a stop before going away. This sucks. I'll never leave any open position overnight the next time around. /wrist

http://www.traders-library.com/

Compilation of trading articles.

142 is selling the market down again through BDO -5.73%, BPI -4.34%, GLO -4.20%,
and TEL -2.57% while they bought up AP +5.70%, SCC +7.76%, and CEB 5.73%.

LC was a little bearish but no actual divergence while LCB is bullish both on the 5-min chart.

Trailing stop got hit on the EUR-USD short position with 60 pip gain.

Currently looking for another short entry on the pair.

Positions in LC/B got spared from the huge drop in the western markets. Hoping for a better exit now.

EUR-USD: Short position

Sold EUR earlier today but my trailing stop got hit so I am trying to optimize my stops/trailing now plus the optimal position size. Trading on the bigger time frame gave better returns(pip per se).

Majority of my "winning trades" before came from the short side. Majority of my losses are from choppy movements in the 10-sec frame. Thanks to my uberly stupid position sizing, my losses are greater than my winnings lol.

It really feels easier to make trades on the short side.

Currently focusing on trading 1 pair only which is EUR-USD.
Sold EUR-USD again earlier on bear flag breakout. Let's see how this one pans out.


*Doji candles seems to be working well on the 50EMA.

Trial by Fire

Currently short on EUR-USD, reduced size of the position and applied a suitable stop loss and trailing stops. I probably shorted a little higher, no thanks to my stupid position sizing and stop loss. Now trading on the 15-minute chart with the same triple EMA crossovers.

Caught the entire leg of LCB upswing. Looking to take profits already. Hopefully it registers a new high so I can exit higher. What a pig lol.

10% gain in LCB today vs 1.92% gain in PX(technically 3.84% since it's on margin).

$1000 feels a little too small for FX?