Monday, September 6, 2010

New Trading System

After 14 days of testing my new trading system, I have only gained 38.32% of the initial target(25% of capital). With six-trading days left for my new trading system, I don't think I can find a trade to make up for the 61.68% that I have not gained yet after 14-trading days without putting my trading capital at a high risk as the general market has already climbed so much this past week.

First mistake that I made with my new trading system is I didn't wait for corrections to fully mature by taking up positions prematurely as I have done with MPI as my technical indicator has not confirmed my entry before, thus prolonging my exposure to market forces too long.

Second mistake that I made was not pulling the trigger fast enough. This happened when I took a position in FLI and not selling it when there was a clear sell signal. I could have simply taken another position with lower cost as it fell to 1.15, .04 centavos lower than my original cost. Or I could have added the proceeds of FLI to my recent position in MPI. Holding longer than more than 5-trading days are exposed to missing more profitable opportunities.

The third and last mistake is waiting for too much confirmation which happened to basically all the trades I made with the exception of cutting my losses in FPH.

Another weakness I found out with this trading system is that I have no stocks to rotate one my funds once I close out my positions, leaving me waiting for five-trading days for my current positions to correct.

3 out of the 4 trades came out successful within the 20-trading day limit, with 6 trading days left. I am pretty sure that there's a computation for success rates so I will not compute it as I don't have the formula right now. Gotta check my other notes.

FGEN - 4.83% Net loss - one-trading day
FLI - 6.25% Net gain - eleven-trading days
MPI - 8.20% Net gain - seven-trading days
DMC - 10.50% Net gain - six-trading days

Trading settings:

1. 1-2% bounce from entry price should be enough to warrant a buy. The allocated bounce from entry is there to minimize the risk of the trade going south and cutting loss.
2. Holding time is now back to five to six-trading days, depending on trend strength and momentum but should not last for more than 10-trading days.
3. Never take positions prematurely. Current technical indicator is good in pointing out good entry timing.
4. Find a faster way to pull the trigger in trailing stops.

Also, the technical indicator I am using is very useful in pointing out entries but it is relatively weaker in giving selling signals so I still need another technical indicator that sends off better sell signals. Williams' Percentage Range (%R) might be good but I still need to test it to see if it works in trending positions.

Overall, my new trading system only gained 9.63% of total capital. It's not bad but I am not impressed. I still need to work on pulling the trigger faster once the trailing stops get hit.

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