Price is War

A market making new highs is rising, Buyers are winning

A market making new lows is falling, Sellers are winning

When is the war on? When are the troops sleeping?

Price is territory that Buyers and Sellers are at War for.

What would be a probable and realistic price goal for the Buyers to achieve if they won the battle today?

What would be a probable and realistic price goal for the Seller's to achieve if they won the battle today?

You will choose a side to be on, you will watch to see who early on is winning the battle, and make your choice, you will know where your choice would be proved wrong, you will expect to take the earliest profit that justifies your risk in relation to the overall goal of the team you have chosen.

If your team is really kicking the other's ass, you might go for a larger portion of their probable win for the day.

If you were wrong, you were wrong, you will fight another day.

You will not become Happy when you win, you will not become Angry when you lose.

You will be right slightly more than you are wrong, and you will judge your risk and reward based upon this fact.

You will gain slow and steady equity.

Quick Update!

The market rebounded nicely today, gaining 2.01% closing at 4203.60. MACD is crossing back over the zero line and rate of change is still pointing up suggesting further advances in the short term. The index also closed above its 10SMA confirming the advance.

My positions in AP and AEV continued to perform very well in today's session, AP gaining another 5.33% today closing at 33.60. It opened higher today, forming a gap that is pointing to 36.60 as a target on the next advance. However, momentum is relatively at peak now while rate of change has started to decline suggesting an incoming correction in the short term. Look for possible entries near 31.90 to 32.80 levels.

AEV gained 4.44% closing at 40 today. Rate of change and momentum are both toppish suggesting a correction in the short term.

Personal target for AP is 35. Current price is shy by P1.40 from target.
Personal target for AEV is 45. Current price is shy by P5 from target.

AP is up by 24.13%% within twenty trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 14.09% within nine trading days.

Trade Setup: AEV - Status: Open

Here is the most recent trade that I did:

DMC



Sold it at 39.40 because:

1. Declining volume during advances;
2. Bearish divergence on ROC; and
3. It was showing relative weakness through the entire session that day before getting pushed up at the closing which also happened the next day;

4. Found a trade setup in AEV (plus earnings report factor):



which I believe I was right as it immediately showed profits the next day despite of the strong selling pressure. I am expecting it to advance strongly once the selling stops(possibly up until mid week).

Took a position at 34.10.

Up to date comparison between the two stocks:

Random observation

Our favorite gurus in our favorite trading sites are not posting any updates on their recent trades. It's almost two weeks now since their on their track record.

What could have happened to them this past week?

Forming a bottom

The market recovered some points that it lost yesterday in today's session, closing higher by 1.26% at 4120.62. Most of us would be wondering if we have found a support at current levels already. Maybe we have, maybe we still haven't and the landslide might still continue up to 4000 or even at the major support at 3896. Best we could do is protect our profits and keep our stops tight.

MACD has finally dropped below the zero line suggesting further corrective-consolidation in the short term. Rate of change and momentum are both building up suggesting a bounce is possible in the short term. Weekly chart is also confirming the daily ROC and momentum.

Top gainers today with relevant volume are SMB +16.43%, AEV +7.89%, ACR +6.38%, AGI +5.47%, SMC +5.32%, AP +4.76%, CEB +4.50% and AC +4.38% while MK is up again by 50% with insignificant volume. Majority of the losers today are third liners.

AP and AEV both performed really well today, AP gaining 4.76% closing at 31.90 while AEV gained a hefty 7.89% closing at 38.30. I'm going to hold them for a while as they are performing very well, specially during last week's heavy decline.

Personal target for AP is 35.
Personal target for AEV is 45.

AP is up by 17.85% within nineteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 9.24% within eight trading days.

Just holding on tight and keeping a tight trailing stop this time.

Must read for those who are new to the stock market!

http://pinoy777.wordpress.com/2010/07/

Check it out 'yo!

Headlights of the approaching train

The market lost more than what it gained last Monday, lower by 1.69% closing at 4069.31, fast approaching the psychological support that is placed at 4000. Looks like the light that we saw last Monday was the headlight of the incoming train.

SMB +10.58% , LND 6.94% and APC 6.85% are today's top gainers with significant volume while URC -6.02%, MEG -5.36%, MER -4.85%, and JFC 4.35% are today's top losers with significant volume.

Seems like my trade setups that formed last Monday are fakes. I'm not willing to bet on them just yet.

For the meantime, I won't be in a hurry to make trades yet although I'll be holding onto my current positions as both are still showing some resilience against the current landslide.

AP is up by 12.49% within eightteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 1.22% past break-even point at 35.07.

Light at the end of the tunnel

The index has finally broken its 6-day losing streak by closing higher by 1.54% at 4139. Hopefully, the market would simply consolidate for the mean time and build a stronger base before heading back up.

Despite of the strong rally of the market today, AP continued to consolidate gaining 0.33% closing at 30.50. Technical indicators are showing slight divergence from each other suggesting further consolidation in the short term.

AEV closed higher today at 35.50 gaining 2.01% in today's session. Rate of change is pointing up while the MACD is weakening and pointing down suggesting that a rally is overdue in the short term as the consolidation might be overextended.

There are good looking trade setups that formed yesterday. Might be worth looking into AGI, DMC and MBT.

AP is up by 12.68% within seventeen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 1.22% past break-even point at 35.07.

“Never buy a stock because your emotions tell you that you might be missing a chance to make money. This is the wrong reason to buy a stock and is the #1 reason people chase stocks.”

Blood bath!

The market continued to decline for six consecutive days, losing another 1.63% closing lower at 4076, losing a total of 7.52% within this week. Gainers are mostly third liners while URC, PNB, VLL and BEL are the top losers in yesterday's session.

Technical indicators are now suggesting further decline in the short and medium term, as also suggested by the breaking of 10-20-50 SMAs. However, momentum are slowly building up strength so a rebound would be possible in the short term.

Psychological support at 4000.
Major support at 3896.

AP and AEV continued to simply consolidate, AP closing slightly lower by 1.30% at 30.40 and AEV closing slightly higher by 0.58% at 34.80. Technical indicators for both are still pointing down suggesting further corrective-consolidation in the short term.

React accordingly until proven otherwise.

AP is up by 12.31% within sixteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 70 centavos within six trading days. Break-even at 35.07.

Still no signs of life

The market continued to decline in today's session, losing another 53.16 points closing lower by 1.27% at 4144.41 with an intraday low of 4090 losing as much as 124 points during the entire session as selling was present across the board and most issues found relatively no support for the mean time.

The immediate support at 4150 was broken down today. If the index continues to break, next support is at the psych 4000 level and major support at 3896.

MACD reading is showing strong downward momentum suggesting further decline in the short term as also being confirmed by continued falling rate of change.

The market is now resting slightly above its 50SMA.

Top gainers for today with relative volume are AP +6.02%, AGI +1.85%, and ACR +1.44%. Top losers with relative volume are MER -7.91%, MPI -5.24%, URC -4.55%,
SM -4.52%, PNB -4.33%, FLI -3.68%, and JFC -3.32%.

Net foreign selling today amounted to P384344606.75.

AP continued to advance today with exceptional volume despite getting sold down during the intraday to a low of 29.25 before recovering at the closing at 30.80 gaining 6.02%. Technical indicators are still showing positive readings.

AEV simply continued to consolidate today, closing slightly higher at 34.60 gaining 1.02%. There is a divergence in its momentum and rate of change suggesting further consolidation in the short term.

Every stock that I put on my watch list this week showed relative weakness and unstable footing.

continuation of price decline and/or consolidation suggests that one should avoid the stock for the mean time and/or until it shows a clear cut signal/confirmation.

AP is up by 13.78% within fifteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 45 centavos within five trading days. Break-even at 35.07.

50 Trading Codes and Guidelines

1.Plan your trades. Trade your plan.

2. Keep records of your trading results.

3. Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.

4. Don’t take the market home.

5. Continually set higher trading goals.

6. Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.

7. Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.

8. Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for studying the markets.

9. Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.

10. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.

11. Limit your losses – use stops!

12. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!

13. Place the stop at the time you make your trade.

14. Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.

15. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.

16. Losses make the trader studious – not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.

17. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.

18. Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined set of rules.

19. Remember that a bear market will take back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.

20. Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.

21. You must have a program, you must know your program, and you must follow your program.

22. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.

23. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market.

24. The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point.

25. The difference between winners and losers isn’t so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.

26. In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.

27. Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the golden touch do not talk about their success.

28. Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.

29. Accept failure as a step towards victory.

30. Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a profit? Forget it even quicker! Don’t let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work.

31. One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity always lies through the open door.

32. The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is safe. When he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.

33. It’s much easier to put on a trade than to take it off.

34. If a market doesn’t do what you think it should do, get out.

35. Beware of large positions that can control your emotions. Don’t be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.

36. Never add to a losing position.

37. Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.

38. You must believe in yourself and your judgement if you expect to make a living at this game.

39. In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be – up or down.

40. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.

41. Never volunteer advice and never brag of your winnings.

42. Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss.

43. Standing aside is a position.

44. It is better to be more interested in the market’s reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself.

45. If you don’t know who you are, the markets are an expensive place to find out.

46. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.

47. Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking your profit too soon. Don’t torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you. Chances are it won’t continue long. If it does, console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early reserved gains that you would have otherwise lost.

48. When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray – jump!

49. Lose your opinion – not your money.

50. Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.

Yikes!

The market continued to slide in today's session, dropping to a low of -92 points before recovering 24 points closing at 4197, significantly lower by 68.88 points from yesterday's closing. Today's decline is accompanied by relatively high volume, decliners outnumbering gainers from 23 to 116, with 36 unchanged.

The huge decline from today came from the sell down in AGI which dropped to a low of 9.80 before recovering up 10.80, recovering half of what it lost during the entire session, closing lower by 5.43%. DMC and MBT are also major contributors in today's decline as they lost 6.53% - closing at 35.05 - and 5.72% - closing at 75 - although on a relatively lower volume. Then most the remaining losers today came from the third liners while majority of the gainers today came from the third liners too, with the exception of JFC gaining 1.61% closing at 94.90.

Profit taking of the foreign brokerage houses is the main culprit in today's landslide, magnified by the lack of support among stocks as seen in their intraday movements.

AP continued to decline today, closing lower by 3.17% at 29.05. There weren't sufficient support seen intraday until closing which has around 2M shares on the bid side. Technical indicators are suggesting rebound in the next two days or so.

Initial target: P35

AEV also continued to decline today, closing slightly lower by 0.44% closing at 34.25. Technicals are still suggesting further decline in the short term. It could also move sideways as there is a clear sideways pattern seen on its chart.

Initial target: P45


AP is up by 7.32% within fourteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is up by 15 centavos within four trading days. Break-even at 35.07.

Color of Money - Finance Manila

Been reading "Trading systems, methods and resources" thread in Finance Manila and found this:

You have to design your strategy, based on your own profile. If you find someone who has the same profile as yours, then you can compare notes, and maybe you can learn from each other.

But at the current bull market, it's almost impossible to find someone to compare notes with.

Personal Disclosure

The market declined further today to 4266.45, closing lower by 29.17 points or 0.68%. Decliners outnumbered gainers, 30 to 81, with 36 unchanged.

Rate of change seems at the bottom already and a bounce is now possible in the short term.

Top gainers with significant volume today are MRC +8.82%, CEB +6.41%, and JFC +2.64% Top losers for today are ALCO -9.72% after gaining 21.35% yesterday, AGI -6.24%, and RFM -4.29%.

AEV finally caved in to further selling pressure, closing lower by 1.71% at 34.40. Declining momentum and rate of change suggests further decline in the short term with possible support at 33.50.

Possibly forming a ranged or an ascending triangle pattern.

Initial target: P45

AP remained strong in the current market condition, closing lower by 0.50% only, closing at 30. However, momentum and rate of change are still both declining suggesting further decline in the short term.

Possible support at 28.65-29.30 (gap) levels.

Initial target: P35

Will write an update on my watch list later.

AP is up by 10.83% within thirteen trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is slightly higher from entry(34.10) within three days. Break-even at 35.07.

Current Watchlist

DMC 6-month Daily chart



Retracement levels:

38.20%: 37.9249
50.00%: 36.9750
61.80%: 36.0251

MBT 6-month Daily chart



Retracement levels:

38.20%: 77.4262
50.00%: 75.5500
61.80%: 73.6738

MPI 6-month Daily chart



Retracement levels:

38.20%: 4.2108
50.00%: 4.1400
61.80%: 4.0692

SCC 6-month Daily chart



Retracement levels:

38.20%: 175.8100
50.00%: 170.5000
61.80%: 165.1900

The red circles suggests possible entry for the said stocks, using MACD and Rate of change as technical indicators to confirm entries.

Retracement levels should not be followed strictly but should only be used as a guide for possible entry. Use technical indicators together with the retracement levels to confirm the entries.

Buy signal maturity ranges from 1 to 6 days max; continuation of price decline and/or consolidation suggests that one should avoid the stock for the mean time and/or until it shows a clear cut signal/confirmation.

Bloody Monday

The market opened up strongly on the opening in today's session before succumbing to profit taking across the board, driving the index lower by 1.23%, closing at 4295. The buy signal on the MACD was confirmed today although it would be wiser to observe the market's movement further before taking up a position as ROC is still pointing to further decline in the short term.

Top gainers for today with relative volume consists of third liners lead by ALCO +21.35%, MUSX 4.05%, and PA +3.51%. DGTL, a second liner, gained 3.12% today closing at 1.65. The majority of the losers came from first and second liners led by RFM 2.10 -4.98%, MBT 78.70 -4.61%, JFC 91 -4.21%, CEB 117 -3.94%, GLO 837 -3.79%, DMC 38.30 3.65%, ICT 43.50 -3.55%, MPI 4.20 -3.23% and AC 398, 3.12%.

That's a lot of significant losers today.

AEV continued to meet strong selling pressure whenever it touches the 36 levels, closing slightly higher by 0.86% at 35.

Rate of change is still pointing up suggesting further upswing in the short term.

Personal Target: P45

AP continued to advance further today in today's session however, it closed significantly lower today as the top buyer from the 28 levels was taking profits from the top of today's price range, inching only by 0.67% closing at 30.15.

Rate of change is relatively toppish in the short term, calling for a correction/consolidation in the short term with a possible support at 28.65-29.30 (gap) levels.

Personal Target: P35

DMC continued to decline significantly today, losing 3.65% closing at 38.30 However, rate of change is relatively at the bottom already, suggesting the resumption of the uptrend in the short term is possible as the MACD is also about to confirm.

Currently at the first line of support. Next possible support at 37.35 if it declines further.

There are a lot of stocks that are providing nice entries this week namely DMC, MBT, MPI, and SCC; all of them are about to give off a buy signal, while RFM has just started to decline.

AP is now up by 11.38% within twelve trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is now up by 2.05% within two trading days, shy by 0.07 cents from break-even point at 35.07.

Just an observation

Looks like mining stocks are going to move next week:

PMINI Daily and Weekly Charts:

It has also broke out of its short term downtrend:

AT Daily and Weekly Charts:

LC Daily and Weekly Charts:

LCB Daily and Weekly Charts:

PX Daily and Weekly Charts:

Confirming signals on both daily and weekly charts enough to warrant a buy on mining stocks?

A trader's job

I was asked by an acquaintance about why I focus to much on losses - which is entirely not true; I focus more on controlling losses rather than the losing itself - the idea which seems to confuse her. So I explained. Well, I tried. I told her that the money you put into the stock market is a losing money, the money you can afford to lose.

Every time you put money into the stock market, you should be expecting it to lose, until proven otherwise by the market. To assume you are right every time you enter a position would only result into expensive loses, as you are going to marry your own opinion. And most of the time, people hate it when their opinion is wrong so they hold on to losing trades instead just to prove they are right. Then the stock starts to recover, they start to feel good because now, they are right. The stock has moved significantly against them though. Or they then realize way later on that they are indeed wrong in their position. Either way, they have already incurred major damage.

Why focus much on losses? What do you think of a trader's job, I asked, answering a question with a question (lol).

I believe that a trader's job is to cut losses. If you let losers hang on, the more damage they do until you finally accept you're wrong. You decide how much you are willing to give the market -stop loss and trailing stop- BEFORE you enter a trade, not when you're in it.

It becomes wrong - looking at the possible loss; fear - alone. We should be looking for the possible upside too so we can compare the potential risk-reward of the trade, then we decide if the trade is worth trading.

Not lecturing or feeling like a guru or something, just picking my brain here. I could be wrong.

So what's a trader's job anyway?

Quotes!

"Go for a business that any idiot can run - because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it."
- Peter Lynch

"I hate weekends because there is no stock market." - Rene Rivkin

I like the quotes! XD

Personal Disclosure

Unbelievable. After global markets gains a hefty 2%(more or less), our market dropped significantly in today's session, dropping by 48.19 points or 1.10% courtesy of the huge sell down of PLDT. Anyway, that was a quick buy signal on appeared on the MACD suggesting buying would be just right on Monday.

Top gainers today with relative volume are BEL +18.65%, SMC +8.37%, AP +5.64%, and RFM +4.74%. Major losers are TEL -8.14% and SMPH -2.35%.

PLDT dropped by 8.14% accompanied by huge volume, which almost completely wiped out its previous gains in the last four weeks. Technically, the drop today is unwarranted. The sell down is unlikely to be a mistake as 7 foreign brokerage houses did the selling namely Macquarie, PEP, UBS, CLSA, JPMorgan, DBP-Daiwa and Deutsche - in that particular order. I highly suspect that are major changes in its fundamentals and/or its earnings report came out as a disappointment.

AEV advanced today by 0.87% after it got sold down when it breached the 36 levels. However, momentum and rate of change are still showing strength pointing to a continuation of advances next week.

No target for AEV as it swings up wildly so I'm simply going to ride it until it shows relative weakness.

AP advanced strongly today, deeming my estimates to be right, gaining 5.64% closing at 29.95. It gaped up today, pointing at 32 as a possible target in the short term IF the gap doesn't get filled. Momentum and rate of change are also both still showing strength suggesting further advances by next week although momentum seems to be at its peak already so there is also a possibility of profit taking early next week.

Personal Target: P35

It would seem that I was right on my decision to sell DMC and buy AEV as DMC continued to slowly decline by 0.50%, closing at 39.75. Meanwhile, AEV continued to advance today, closing slightly higher by 0.87%, closing at 34.70 after it met a strong selling pressure at the 36 levels that pushed the price down at the closing.

Verdict: I am right(sold DMC) and the guy who bought up DMC at 39.95 is wrong, short term speaking.

It seems that I am also right in choosing AEV over AT as AT has only inched up by 0.33% although its rate of change is still pointing up suggesting upward price movement - thus suggesting a bullish divergence. However, there's a bearish divergence reading on the RSI. Having mixed technical readings, I am leaning towards avoiding it as there are more attractive stocks that have confirming signals.

AP is now up by 10.64% within eleven trading days with doubled up position.
AEV is now up by 1.20% within one trading day. Break-even at 35.07.

Up, up and away!

American and european markets are up by more than 1% as of this writing.

Are we gonna get some?

Or are we going to be outside of the kulambo this time?

Stock selection

Here are the stocks that I am currently watching:

5-minute chart - six days:

There are four stocks that went up from the starting point namely DMC, AGI, MEG and RFM which stayed neutral for the first few days before catching up with the first three. DMC and MEG just started to move up again in this time frame while AGI started to decline.

The other two stocks went down from the starting point namely AEV and AT while AP still remained flat.

The divergence among the stocks is probably a sign of potential for rotational plays.

The flattening of AP is probably a good sign for positioning.

Let's see how they all go by next week to see if I am correct in my assumptions.

Now, looking at their daily chart - six months:

It seems that RFM outperformed every stock on my list with only DMC catching up with it lately, all thanks to that two weeks or so consolidation.

AP is under-performing amongst the stock selection together with AT. Let's see how they perform this month and see if I am right on betting on AP.

Holding Companies:

Here is a possible rotational play for swing trading as there seems to be a slight divergence with AEV and AGI. Meanwhile, DMC is outperforming both.

Other Sectors:

Here is a possible rotational play for swing trading as there seems to be a slight divergence lately with AT and MEG. Meanwhile, AP is currently underperforming from both stocks although it still trending up but at a relatively slower pacing.

There's nothing to compare with RFM as it outperformed every other stock on the list.

Conclusion:

Swing trading rotation:
AEV-AGI
AT-MEG

Position trading:
AP: moderately conservative, swing-trading would be relatively unproductive as it doesn't seem to decline significantly during corrections. It seems that implementing a buy and hold strategy is best.

DMC: moderately aggressive, swing-trading would be slightly unproductive as cost seems to be only slightly lower from the swings that it produces during its corrections. It seems that implementing a buy and hold strategy is best.

RFM: aggressive and slightly speculative. Swing-trading would be relatively productive as it declines relatively during corrections which is more than enough to cover costs.

*IF AP - the underperforming stock - catches up with RFM and DMC, that would be more than 60% potential upside.

Hope I'm right in this.

Personal Disclosure: Being wrong and right at the same time.

The market inched another 15.44 points today, closing at 4397 - 0.35% higher from yesterday's session. There could be one more possible movement to the upside before profit taking occurs as being suggested by the signal from MACD. Rate of change also seems relatively toppish at the moment.

AP continued its corrective consolidation today, closing at 28.35, 1.43% higher from yesterday's session. Rate of change has finally turned up suggesting the upward bias of the spinning top candle that formed today. Price advancement is very possible by tomorrow or early next week at worst.

Personal target for AP(initial): P35

DMC continued to advance today by 1.52%, closing at 39.95. Looking at the 5-minute chart, it would seem that the best buying window for this is when it is consolidating. Rate of change has already turn up again suggesting price advances in the short term although it already half-way near its previous peak.

The buy signal that I was talking about yesterday was confirmed today as it closed strongly today at 34.40, up by 2.08%. Rate of change has also continued to increase today, confirming strongly the buy signal that it gave yesterday, also suggesting the start of price advances again in the short term.

With that being said about DMC and AEV, I decided to sell DMC at 39.40 during the middle of the trading session and bought AEV at 34.10. The reason why I dropped DMC is that I believe that it is only capable of gaining another 5% or so in the short term in comparison with what's AEV could gain -in my belief- in the said time frame. I was hoping for DMC to move up significantly today so I could sell it just a bit higher but it was simply range trading the entire session within 39.35 to 39.40 range.

After I sold DMC, I bought AEV immediately although the timing is slightly off as I was hoping for a better timing. I was looking at its 5-minute chart hoping to time it correctly but I was feeling uneasy that it might go up suddenly so I posted a buy at 34.20. Luckily, my broker was acting slower today that it fell at 34.10 before my posting was done so I was done at that price. The 5-minute chart was suggesting a drop to 34 and lower is imminent but emotions got a better hold of me so there. That's what happens when emotions get in the way.

Anyway, buying AEV today was deemed correct by the market as it showed profit right after I bought it.

My selling of DMC is probably wrong as it continued to advance further after I sold it. However, the possibility that the buyer, who bought up DMC in the last minutes of trading, is wrong. Verdict by tomorrow.

AT still looks attractive to me but no more available funds. That's just sad.

Could it also be possible that RFM has already formed a short term peak at 2.12? Please make a corrective-consolidation for the mean time so I can buy you.

A new addition in my trading system seems to be working very well as a sell signal. I still haven't back-tested it yet but it is showing progress in the mean time - specially in this slightly trending-sideways-to-up market movement. Didn't use it on DMC though.

Sold DMC at 39.40 with 8.56% net gain on the seventh day of holding it.
Bought AEV at 34.10, closed at 34.40 (+0.0088%).
AP is currently up by 4.73% within ten-trading days. Doubled my previous position.

Riding with the Bulls

Charts of companies' stock performance after their presentation with Citiseconline last October 27:



It would seem that AGI was the best performer after their presentation.

However:



A 6-month comparison shows that DMC has been outperforming the other issues, only seconded by AGI while the other two MPI and ICT were severely underperforming.

With that being said, I am more inclined to buy the stronger issue/s which are DMC and AGI.

RFM CORPORATION (RFM)

10-Year Daily Chart



RFM has finally taken out its major resistance P2 today with exceptional volume after consolidating in more than two weeks, suggesting the resumption of its uptrend in the intermediate term.

The resumption of the uptrend is pointing out at 2.85 as target in intermediate term.

However, current uptrend would seem to be advancing in a slightly lower pacing from its previous advances as pointed out by the fan lines.

6-Month Daily Chart



It has also broke out of its ascending triangle pattern today, pointing out at 2.27 as an immediate target.

There are still no signs of danger appearing on its weekly chart.

I am trying to be careful in trading break outs, specially when it is their first so I would be still on the sidelines here as it deemed to be much safer to wait for a pull back. I also set a rule in my system to sell the first break out and buy the second one so today should have been a sell IF I had a position.

A pull back to P2 should provide a good buying opportunity, or as close as possible. If it would be possible, below P2 should also provide good bargains.

RFM is also highly obedient of its trend/support line.

Short Term Target: 2.27
Intermediate Term Target: 2.85
Immediate Support: 2

Personal Disclosure

The market continued to advance further in today's session, gaining another 40 points, closing at 4381 today, higher by 0.92% from yesterday's closing. Major index contributors today are SCC up by 6.23%, VLL up by 6.06%, SMC up by 4.88%, and MBT up by 3.94%. Major losers today are FGEN down by 3.43% and CEB down by 3.39%. CEB is now down by 4.16% from its IPO price.

The market is now seem to resume its uptrend after consolidating for four weeks as MACD is now slowly turning up.

Riding with the bulls is now being led by AGI +10.24%, ICT +9.4%, DMC +9.31% and MPI +7.81% after they played catch-up with DMC after their presentation with Citisec.

AP continued its corrective consolidation today closing at 27.95, higher by 0.18% only from yesterday's closing. Rate of change are looking to turn up that might indicate the resumption of uptrend although it could still end up flat on tomorrow's session. Uptrend might resume from late this week to early next week.

DMC continued to advance today despite of its declining rate of change, indicating bearish divergence with the indicator. The latest divergence that I saw within my watch list was from MEG which resulted into sideways movement for about two weeks before it started to head back up. So there are now two things that are needing attention: divergence in price to volume and divergence in price to rate of change.

Or it could simply move in a boxed pattern.

AEV gave off a buy signal today. A strong opening tomorrow should confirm the buy signal although it still has to sustain its strength upon closing.

Amongst the five stock that I put up in my watch list yesterday, Atlas seems to be the most attractive stock to buy as it's the one that have fallen the most in terms of rate of change. Coincidentally, its price today closed at 61.80% fibonacci retracement level.

RFM has finally woken up from its more than two weeks of consolidation, taking out the heavy resistance at 2 today with exceptional volume, reaching a high of 2.12 before closing at 2.06. Target in the current uptrend in the medium term is now at 2.85. I'm trying to be careful now with stocks behaving like this so I'll wait for a correction for the mean time before taking a position here. Expect the previous resistance at 2 to provide support when it pulls back and it should also provide a good buying window. I'll be posting its chart later today.

AP is currently up by 3.26% in nine trading days. Doubled my position in AP.
DMC is currently up by 8.42% in six trading days.

*AT is looking attractive at current conditions so I am thinking of dropping DMC for it. If AT opens strongly tomorrow and sustains it, closing above the 10SMA, I'll buy it and will drop DMC. Much better if DMC surges up by 5%. If it does more than that, I'm just going to hold onto it.

So much for following your plans.

Personal Disclosure

The market gained a whopping 73 points today, with major contributors coming from the industrial and holding firms.

Riding with the bulls are now being led by AGI +10.24%, ICT +10.05%, MPI 8.04% after playing catch up with DMC with +8.02%.

AP is poised for further correction in the short term as the rate of change is still declining. Uptrend might resume from late this week to early next week.

DMC is poised for a correction in the short term as suggested by declining rate of change.

Out of the five stocks I put on my watch list, two of them opened strongly, namely AGI and URC as both gave off a buy signal on the weekly charts. Despite of not opening strongly today, the other three - AT, PX, and PNB also gave a buy signal on their weekly charts, suggesting a buy this week. I'm all tied up with AP and DMC already so I'll just be watching all issues to confirm my ideas. One thing I am uncomfortable with is PX candlestick which is seem to be forming a falling method.

AEV also gave a buy signal today on the weekly chart while AP gave a sell signal in the weekly chart. Besides that, there's nothing much to worry about the Aboitiz stocks. AEV has also a inverted hammer candlestick on its chart so it might advance ahead of AP in the short term.

AP is currently up by 3.07% in eight trading days. Doubled my position in AP.
DMC is currently up by 7.04% in five trading days.

AP 70%
DMC 17%
Cash 13%

*Sitting tight for the mean time. I am thinking of holding either of them till December to reduce stress when trading. I would probably use the remaining 13% or less for swing trading just to cure the itch when watching the ticker or for speculative/high risk stock positions. I think I had my fair share of roller coaster ride in the stock market already. Anyway, hopefully by year end, I have doubled my capital so I'll have a better room for elbow next year! Gotta squeeze everything that we can get out of this bull market!!!

Watchlist!

Stocks to look out for if they open strongly today!

ALLIANCE GLOBAL GROUP, INC. (AGI)
ATLAS CONSOLIDATED MINING (AT)
PHILIPPINE NATIONAL BANK (PNB)
PHILEX MINING CORPORATION (PX)
UNIVERSAL ROBRINA CORPORATION (URC)

And the Aboitiz stocks too - AP and AEV!

Everything is purely on technical basis~

*UPDATE!

Last week, I decided to look on to several stocks for possible trades. The basic requirement for them to be a buy is for them to open strongly. Let's see how did they fare this past week:

AGI: Fulfilled the requirement to open strongly on the opening of the market. However, it would seem that it did not sustain its strength to further advance through out the week, and it only formed short days(candles).

Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the coming week or two.

AT: Despite of the increasing rate of change, its price barely moved. Therefore it did not fulfill the basic requirement for a buy.

However, the divergence in price and rate of change suggests bullish behavior so it could possibly spike up by next week - opposite of bearish divergence in price and rate of change which often results to relatively lengthy corrective consolidation.
(Just an observation).

Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the short term.

PNB: Opened relatively weak on the start of the week which is directly the opposite of the buying condition. However, advanced fairly well which have led to either a whipsaw or not being able to ride the boat.

It is now looking to break its previous high of 73.50.

Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the short term.

PX: Opened relatively well this week and was able to sustain it until last Friday as it met strong selling pressure at 15(gap - resistance; 61.80% Fibonacci retracement).

Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the short term.

URC: Opened very strong this week although it wasn't able to sustain its initial strong opening.

Weekly rate of change remained flat because of the inability to sustain its daily gains. Its price movement on Monday will decide its own direction in the short term.

It is to be noted that four out of the five stocks in the list have a confirming buy signal on the daily and weekly chart: AGI, AT, PNB, and PX while URC remained neutral.

*Short term: 1-2 weeks.

Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPI)

6-Month Daily Chart



Looks like MPI has finally broke out of its resistance at 4 today, as it broke out of its ascending triangle pattern that formed this past 3 weeks. Immediate target of the said pattern is pointing at 4.42. Expect correction in the short term - 1 week worst case for those waiting for the correction.

I am now expecting it to fill its gap down from 4.70 in the intermediate term.

Personal Disclosure

The market closed slightly higher by 8 points as it continued to move sideways. Hopefully, we breakout of this sideways movement when third quarter earnings reports come out by early November. Technicals still haven't changed so don't expect much from the market.

AP continued to decline today losing 1.44% closing at 27.45. I am expecting it to decline further on Tuesday's session. If it does decline, it should provide a buying window.

DMC looks like its momentum has slowed down, gaining 2.28% today with relatively low volume. Technicals are still not showing any signs of weakness so there could still be more room to the upside.

The "laggard" companies from COL's briefing are one of the best performers in today's session as AGI played catch up, gaining a total of 4.42% after the briefing, closing at 11.34. MPI gained a hefty 4.38% today closing at 4.29 also breaking out of its ascending triangle pattern, gaining a total of 6.87%. DMC gained a total of 6.32% while ICT gained a total of 3.47% closing at 43. Looks like DMC is the fastest horse among them. Let's see how they perform next week!

Finally finished my back-testing on the first part of my trading system. Looks like I still need to refine it further as it only performed 70% during bull market. One thing I observe about it seem like susceptible to whipsaws so I need to add another filter to minimize whipsaws.


AP is currently up by 5.09% in seven trading days.
DMC is currently up by 5.25% in four trading days.

*Earnings report where are you~

The Replacements

Consunji-led DMCI Holdings, Inc. (DMC), Lopez-led First Gen Corp. (FGEN) and Gokongwei-led JG Summit Holdings, Inc. (JGS) are going to take the places of San Miguel Corp. (SMC), GMA Network, Inc. (GMA7), and Security Bank Corp (SECB) in the index.

Full story here: http://bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=20235

Personal Disclosure

The market closed 24.38 points lower from yesterday, confirming the further sideways movement in the short term and has also been pointed out of the loss of momentum reflected by the index' MACD and declining rate of change.

The declining rate of change and momentum confirms the further sideways movement in the short term.

No news is bad news.

AP declined for the second day by a total of 20 centavos. Declining rate of change and momentum suggests further correction/consolidation in the short term.

It seems that I was wrong in reading the price movement of DMC as it advanced further today by 4.04%. Rate of change is half-way through from it's previous peak so this current price movement may last by a day or two before heading for correction/consolidation.

One thing that should be a matter of concern in the short term is the divergence of price advances from volume.

I'll still be holding both till they reach my targets. Hopefully, targets are hit by the time the third quarter earnings report comes out.

Couldn't post much as I have been manually "back-testing" my fine-tuned trading system. I was almost done with the first part(bear market) when I suddenly realized that there was an error on the beginning of the testing so I have to re-do everything again. /epicfail

Companies that had their presentation yesterday at Resort World, Riding with the Bulls courtesy of Citiseconline, performed well today as DMC is up by 4.04%, ICT is up by 2.05% and MPI is up by 2.49%. However, AGI remained flat in today's session which I find somewhat ironic as they own Resort World.

AP is currently up by 6.62% in six trading days.
DMC is currently up by 2.91% in three trading days.

*Hold the winning positions as long as possible, keeping trailing stops active.
*Buy what is showing strength.

Personal Disclosure

The market closed slightly lower from Friday's session by 7 points (0.17%). If there would be no positive follow through tomorrow, I am expecting the market to continue moving sideways and looking to buy at 4146 levels.

AP still closed higher by 0.18% but the selling was pretty obvious today. Still having divergence in momentum and rate of change suggesting consolidation in the short term.

DMC advanced further today gaining 1.84%. However, weakening momentum and declining rate of change are now suggesting that the price is currently at its peak.

I was second guessing my decision in buying AP before as I might have seen what I wanted to see. It seems like I was not and AP moved considerably in my direction. Same case with DMC. However, it looks like I took the position relatively late as it seem to be trading at the top of its trading channel and still moving sideways.

Anyway, I'll be holding both of them for the meantime till they reach my personal targets.

AP is now up by 7.39% in five days.
DMC is now up by 1.84% in one day.

Long weekend is long.

The market has finally broke the resistance at 4250 after moving sideways this past week. If it is not a false breakout, 4350 is very possible in the short term. However, if it is a false breakout, look into buying within 4146 levels.

AP continued to advance last session gaining 3.90%, closing at 28. Looks like the gap is going to be filled as momentum is relatively top-ish with declining rate of change. Or it might consolidate for a few days before heading back up. Weekly chart is still pointing up so any weakness in the daily chart should provide buying opportunities with minimal risk.

AGI is poised to head up as suggested by the increasing rate of change and momentum. However, there seems to be a strong selling when it reaches 11.18 levels.

DMC advanced last Friday gaining 5.37% closing at 35.30 and it is still poised to head up further as the rate of change just started to point up. Price movement has also satisfied the buying condition.

MEG continued to consolidate last Friday, barely moved at 2.55 levels after breaking out of its symmetrical triangle formation. Immediate target at 2.90 once it resume its uptrend.

The candlestick of PX last Wednesday was confirmed as a hammer last Friday as it seem to reverse its current price movement in the short term.

AT continued to advance last Friday and it seems like it will have a continuation of its advance up to early this week.

Busy weekend so I didn't get the chance to edit and post charts of previous trades.

I sold AGI last Friday for 1% commission loss after holding it for the eight days and I bought DMC with the proceeds as my buying condition for it was satisfied, plus it looks better than AGI last Friday.

Bought DMC at 35.30, closed at 35.30.
AP is now up by 7.20% in 4 days.

*I increased my position in AP last Wednesday, buying at 25.60 and 25.85 not to average down - after buying at 26.60 - but it simply showed a trade setup.

Personal Disclosure

The market gained 57.21 points at 4249.17 today, 1.28% higher from yesterday's closing, continuing to move sideways with a support at 4146 and resistance at 4250. Momentum and rate of change are now both pointing up and confirming each other, suggesting that there would be further advance in the short term. If both indicators confirm each other on the weekly charts by next week, the resumption of the uptrend would probably come earlier than I expected.

Top gainers for today are MER, AEV, AP and SMPH while top losers are mostly comprised by third liners.

AGI opened strongly at 11 before it was sold down by MACQUARIE and CLSA, closing at 10.86. Momentum-Rate of change reading right on the money. Today's reading is relatively different as momentum has started to gain strength while rate of change declined further. Resumption of the uptrend would be late this week to early next week.

AP continued to advance further today, gaining 3.65% today closing at 26.95, made a gap up from yesterday's closing. If the gap doesn't get filled tomorrow, immediate target would be at 28.80. Momentum and rate of change are still both pointing up suggesting further advance in the short term and both are still less than half-way from their previous peaks.

MEG would seem to consolidate further in the short term as momentum and rate of change are diverging from each other. Pull backs to 2.40 should provide a good entry. Target would be around 2.90 once it starts to advance (symmetrical triangle target).

DMC did continued to consolidate today. However, despite the diverging momentum and rate of change, it appears to me that it is ready to resume its uptrend as the momentum is starting to gather strength. Buy if price crosses over the 10SMA.

Still confused with PX as the latest candlestick doesn't seen to be confirmed much.

Lost my bet on AT as it advanced further in today's session. It would be safe to assume that it would advance further until next week as both momentum and rate of change are pointing up.

On the other hand, looks like I am right on ORE. Both momentum and rate of change just started to point down (from the peak) suggesting further decline in the short term.

I'll be posting charts of my previous trades later.

AGI is still sitting on commission/tax loss for seven trading days.
AP is now up by 3.18% in 3 days.

*In a relatively choppy market, buy what's showing strength.

Midnight Express

Market closed relatively flat in yesterday's session, dropping 43 points intraday before closing at 4191.96, slightly lower by 0.71 points only. Gainers are mostly comprised by third liners with AT and AEV as an exception while major losers yesterday are third liners too.

Looking at the charts, the index seems to be half way through consolidation, just in time for the third quarter company reports.

AGI seems like its about to resume its uptrend already, but momentum and rate of change are still pointing down so it might still decline tomorrow. However, if it does starts to advance again, tomorrow would be the earliest and early next week would be the worst.

AP bounced off today from support closing by 1.56% higher yesterday. Momentum and rate of change are pointing up already suggesting advances in the short term. Latest candlestick formation also suggests the same. However, I am second guessing my decision as I might have simply saw what I wanted to saw on the charts. Verdict tomorrow!

Looks like I am wrong on assuming buying on breakout on MEG as it opened and closed lower yesterday forming a bearish candlestick. Should the proper play for breakouts is sell the first breakout and buy the second one? 2.40 level is looking to be the next support.

DMC seemed to consolidate further yesterday as it is also being pointed out by momentum diverging from rate of change.

PX recovered today and bounced off its next immediate support at 12.90. However, I am still doubting the candlestick that it formed yesterday as I am unsure if it is a on-neck pattern or a hammer pattern. Only one way to find out, watch its price movement until the end of the week!

I am betting on two to three days consolidation in AT following its advance yesterday, basing it from its previous behavior. Let's see how it'd go.

ORE is one interesting issue. Die hard fans of this stock are jumping out of joy yesterday as it was one of the most active stocks with 3.98% gain. However, is this a reason to be jumping for joy?



Technically speaking, momentum and rate of change are relatively the same with its previous peaks suggesting price decline in the short term. But knowing that it is a jockeyed stock, I hardly doubt that my analysis would be right.

Anyway, I would be try to post a chart of this one since I profited around 30% from ORE before within two weeks.

AGI is sitting on 2.5% net paper loss (commission/tax).
Break-even at 11.15.
Six trading days.

AP is sitting on 0.46% net loss.
Two trading days.


*Sell on the first breakout (of range) and then buy the second break out.

Personal Disclosure

The market declined further in today's session losing 23.86 points, closing at 4191.25. Major index gainer today is MEG while major index losers came from the mining sector comprising of LC, LCB, MAB, and PX.

AGI seemed to have found support at current levels. However, both momentum and rate of change are still pointing to further decline in the short term. Weekly chart looks like its half-way through its decline so am expecting it to resume its uptrend late this week or by early next week.

ATR and JPMorgan seems to be accumulating as they are net buyers today with 31M and 1.9M (volume) respectively.

I forgot to post my analysis for MEG if it breaks out of trading range yesterday. It should have been buy on break out of the resistance at 2.55. Anyway, I still missed today's buy on break out for MEG as I left 30 minutes before the market's closing. Any pullbacks near 2.55 levels should provide opportunity to buy with a target of 2.90 from the the symmetrical triangle that it formed on the daily charts.

Major foreign buyer today is MACQUARIE amounting to 21.65M (vol).

Rate of change and momentum are both pointing up suggesting further advance in the short term. MACD is already pointing up and the fast line has crossed above the slow line confirming the continuation of the uptrend.

This is frustrating since I have a position in MEG in COL's virtual tycoon. /sadpanda

AP continued to decline further in today's session, losing 1.92% closing at 25.60. Momentum and rate of change are still both pointing down suggesting further decline in the short term. Declines up to 24.50 should provide buying opportunities with minimal risk.

Major buyers today are MACQUARIE, PEP, and DEUTSCHE.

DMC continued its corrective consolidation today losing only by 0.89%. Momentum and rate of change are diverging from each other suggesting further consolidation in the short term.

Major buyers today are DBP-DAIWA and JPMorgan.

PX broke down today from its support at 14 by more than 3% suggesting further decline in the medium term. Momemtum, rate of change and MACD are all pointing down suggesting the idea of further decline.

Next support at 12.76-12.90 levels.

Looks like I was right about MBT. Too bad I didn't get the "OK" signal to buy it. The only stocks that I have the "OK" sign to buy are: AP, AGI, MEG and DMC.

My position in AGI is still on commision/paper loss.

Personal Disclosure

The market continued to move sideways today, closing lower by 1.24 points. ALI was sold down today again down to 16 before recovering back and closing at 17.30. I now have the notion of buying ALI immediately once it drops by more than 5% for quick money.

AGI continued to decline today, losing by 5 centavos or 0.54%. Rate of change and momentum is still diverging from each other so I am inclined to believe it will continue to decline/consolidate in the short term. Its weekly charts looks like its half-way through its decline so am expecting it to resume its advances late this week or by early next week.

MEG met resistance from its previous high of 2.55 (tweezer top) and started to decline at that point. A bounce from 2.35-2.40 (gap) levels should provide a good entry if it is to resume its uptrend. A bounce from that level would also confirm the symmetrical triangle pattern that formed in its daily chart with a target of 2.90.

However, if it declines further beyond that point, expect a strong support at 2.20 levels and continue to trade the range. Furthermore, if it declines further beyond the 2.35-2.40 (gap) level, the symmetrical triangle pattern would be rendered void and would be replaced by an ascending triangle pattern, with a target of 2.80.

On the other hand, FLI moved sideways with a tighter range from 1.32 to 1.40. A possible symmetrical triangle pattern might also be forming on the charts.

PX dropped by 0.56% today. It is definitely forming a descending triangle pattern. However, as much as I don't like seeing spinning tops on the top of trading ranges as they usually signifies movement reversal in the short term, I pretty much welcome its appearance on the bottom of trading ranges. With a bounce from its current support of 14 should provide a good entry with a tight stop loss right below, with immediate resistance at 15. Breaking above 15 would suggest the end of the short term down trend and it would be resuming its uptrend.

However, if it does break its support at 14, expect immediate support at 12.76-12.90 levels.

I won't be watching RFM for the meantime or until it breaks its resistance at 2 and/or once it gains 10M daily turnover on up-days. Weekly charts seems to be forming rising three method (candlestick pattern) which seems to be pointing at 1.70 level as possible support.

AP started to decline today, losing by 0.76% closing at 26.10. Both momentum and rate of change are pointing down so it seems like it would be declining further in the short term. Pullbacks and rebounds from 24.67 to 25.27 should provide good entry points. Weekly charts are looking relatively weak so I am not expecting it to rebound up til early next week (at best).

DMC would seem to be consolidating in the short term. A bounce from 31-32 levels should provide good entry.

The selling of MBT looks like it was overdone/overly bearish for me. Buy if it advances tomorrow with immediate resistance at 71.92 up to 72.96.

My current position in AGI is still the same; sitting on half of commission/paper loss.

Personal Disclosure

The market simply moved sideways this week as it closed 17 points - 0.40% lower from yesterday's session, closing at 4216.35. This market behavior would probably last till the next earning reports come in. No news is bad news.

AGI fell by 1.43% in the previous session, closing at 11.02 leaving my position virtually unchanged when I bought it. Divergence in rate of change and momentum is suggesting further corrective consolidation in the short term. Weekly charts is definitely pointing down now.

Of all the property stocks that I've been watching, MEG seems to be the one that showed greater strength among the three. Although it seems like it has peaked already at 2.50. Any rebounds from the support at 2.20 should be bought. Weekly charts also gave a buy signal so any weakness in the daily charts should provide a good buying opportunity. Breaking the previous high at 2.55 would be possible as soon as the MACD starts pointing up.

Not the same case with ALI as selling started to surface at the 18 levels. Bounces from 16.70 levels should provide buying windows with a tight stop right below it. Avoid if it breaks the 16.70 support levels.

FLI behaved like ALI although not as bad. Rebounds from 1.32 support levels should provide buying windows with a tight stop loss right below the entry point.
Avoid if breaks the 1.32 support levels.

PX is make or break at 14. Divergence in momentum and rate of change is suggesting consolidation though.

RFM closed unchanged yesterday. There was a slight loss of momentum although both indicators are still pointing up so the possibility of advancing and retesting the resistance at 2 is possible.

I missed the AP boat! /sadface

DMC is probably the only one I can ride with now for the mean time.

Personal Disclosure

The market opened 20 points lower today before gaining 27 points at the end of the session.

AGI gained another 3% today, half-way through my break-even point! Momentum and rate of change is still diverging from each other suggesting consolidation in the short term. Weekly chart is manifesting relative weakness suggesting selling on rallies although it might change if the stock finishes up strongly this week. Pull backs to 10 levels should provide nice buying windows.

RFM, PX, MEG, and ALI also rebounded strongly today.

ALI found solid support on 50-MA. Today could have been the best buying window for this stock, with immediate resistance at 18.42 levels. Very nice candidate for range trading. I am not expecting it to break its previous high at 18.70 in the short term as the MACD reading is still pointing down.

MEG bounced off strongly from its support at 2.20 levels, gaining 4% today. Momentum and rate of change have began to point up suggesting advances in the short term, with immediate resistance at 2.43. Breaking of the immediate resistance would suggest that the uptrend would resume. I highly doubt it though as MACD reading is still pointing down so I am more inclined to range trade at best.

Another property stock that caught my attention today while scanning charts is FLI. It formed a very bullish candlestick pattern today - Piercing pattern. Chances of this stock advancing tomorrow is very high with immediate resistance at 1.45. MACD is still pointing down so it would be range trading at best in the short term.

I am seeing a symmetrical triangle formation in PX. Today would have been the best time to buy it too and/or as close to 14 as possible with a very tight stop loss below 14. Bands are relatively flat so the possibility of range-trading is also there with immediate resistance at 16.

RFM is struggling at its current support - 1.79 - as both 10 and 50 SMAs are pointing out. RFM is behaving exactly as I've been expecting! Too bad most my funds are still frozen! Chances of breaking the resistance at 2 now is relatively high as MACD just crossed over the zero line. /sadface

It looks like I can ride AP once it resumes its advance next week though!

Rebound at 32 levels for DMC should warrant a buy signal.

Can't wait for my COL account to be activated hehe.

Personal Disclosure

The market made a relatively steep decline today, losing 1.24% - 52.27 points lower from yesterday, closing at 4166. Today is the steepest decline the index has made since the crazy run up that broke the previous high. It looks like the market is still poised to decline in the short term with immediate support at 4125.

I've not been writing much as I have been reviewing my previous trades, both gainers and losers to refine my system further. I am also currently transferring my funds to Citiseconline so my funds are generally frozen at the moment except for some that I've left on my live broker.

Bought AGI today at 10.84 with the remaining 30% of my active capital as I saw CLSA gobbling the shares up to 10.90 but wasn't able to sustain its buying before closing at 10.66 today. So that's 1.6% paper loss already. Got in too early but I wasn't able to monitor the market till the closing so that's the best choice I had today. Sell on rally as momentum in the weekly charts is showing relative weakness.

AP is looking very nice also as its MACD shows accompanied by relative trend strength. Pull backs to 24 is a buy but should wait for positive momentum to build up first as weekly charts is showing relative weakness.

RFM is still showing weakness on both daily and weekly charts so it is best to range trade it, support at 1.65 and resistance at 2.00.

PX looks like its about to bottom out on both weekly and daily charts so bounces from the support at 14 should warrant a buy with a immediate resistance at 16. If it continues to move this way, it might form a symmetrical triangle which would also warrant a buy at breakout.

MEG is about to retest its previous support at 2.20. Bounces from the said support should warrant a buy with immediate resistance at around 2.36 levels as it looks like it is forming a descending triangle. Breaking down the support at 2.20 would point to the next support at 2.13-2.15 levels. Breaking up the recent high at 2.42 would suggest the continuation of the further advance to the original target and should also warrant a buy. MACD is suggesting sideways to down movement in the short term.

DMC is also worth watching and buy as close to 31 as possible. Correction and bounces at 16.50-17 levels should warrant a buy on AT.

ALI looks like it got raped again today losing around 10% in three days.

Personal Disclosure

Market closed by 16 points lower in today day's session after gaining a hefty 76 points yesterday. Anyway, I posted my view on the market today so there.

As I've suspected, most of my favorite stocks are moving sideways. AGI, MPI, MEG, and FLI moved sideways today after advancing around 5% in the past two sessions. The only one that advanced strongly today is RFM. It looks like it has awakened from its six-week slumber. I can still remember my trading plan for RFM!

MPI could possibly forming an ascending triangle formation though. A convincing breakout at 4 should warrant a buy.

Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP)

Ten-Year Daily Chart PSEi



The previous advance from 3600 level was succeeded by continuous 1% gain on a daily average, breaking the previous high at 3896, before meeting slight resistance at the psychological resistance at 4000 which caused choppy movements in the recent advances. The breaking of the 4000 psychological resistance by 3% suggests that the current uptrend is still good and it is simply resting before heading back up.

Current MACD reading is suggesting that the recent high is currently at the peak of the uptrend as it has relatively the same MACD reading as the previous high at 3896 which is also confirmed by the current DMI reading.

The fast MACD line has crossed below the slower MACD line suggesting that there would be a consolidation in the short to medium term. Chances of making a combination of correction-consolidation is relatively average, possibly a retest of the now current psychological support at 4000 before heading back up.

There is a Momentum-Rate of Change to Price divergence, further confirmed the short to medium term consolidation being suggested by the MACD and DMI readings.

The market is now trying to break into the old support line (current resistance).

Support (Fibonacci Retracements): 4055 - 3943 - 3864
Psychological Support: 4000 - 3896

Personal Disclosure

Market closed 76 points higher today at 4188. Looks like the eleven-day consolidation finished yesterday.

Got whipsawed in MEG terribly as it closed at 2.39 today but you have to follow the plan. /sadface

Current position in DGTL is still lower by 7 centavos in six days. Didn't do much today except to watch the tape the whole time. I'm currently looking to range-trade some stocks if there is a viable trade setup.

I also found out a major flow in my current money management. It seems like I am exposing too much of my trading capital per trade!

Anyway, I am reading inverted charts again to see if the current trends and price movements are still valid.

Hello Monday!

Hello Monday! Looks like we're still poised for further consolidation-correction this week, courtesy of the crazy 500+ point jump this past month, plus no new news to push the prices. Quarterly company reports would be getting out sometime this month so there might be price action when that happens.

JGS is looking good as the IPO of Cebu Pacific is near. I might take a position here. Let's see how it goes tomorrow.

Personal Disclosure

Sold MEG and FGEN for a significant loss today and I've pent all my of my gains from last month in three weeks. However, I found out what's wrong with my trades this month and market is not acting up within my expectations so I moved out.

I'll be watching the market for the meantime.

Back to square one. Synchronizing my trading month with actual months. My mind set is not really for medium term so I am going to use a shorter time frame now. No more trades for this week.

Food for thought

Looking back at my previous trades these past three weeks or so made me realize that I have been trading very badly as all of them are traded against my trading rules. I found out that I have been forcing money out of the market.

60% of what I gained on my first month, I already gave back to Ms. Market.

Goddammit, this is so frustrating.

Stocks go up in a bull market eventually. But timing and finding the best trades are far better than putting money recklessly.

I need to get out of the market to clear my system!

I wont be updating my trades for the mean time(more likely not on time) as I am keeping records on real paper now but I'll try to post charts from time to time to find good trades.

Personal Disclosure

The market was flat for the entire session before succumbing to further profit taking across the board, closing 13 points lower from yesterday's close at 4111. Top gainers for today are mostly penny stocks, UPM with the most significant volume but the value is still pathetic.

MEG fell to a low of 2.27 before closing at 2.29, lower by 0.43% from yesterday's closing. Rebound should be any time this week as ROC is pointing up although on a weaker momentum. Sell on rally would probably the best thing to do if momentum weakens further.

DGTL fell to a low of 1.59, same as yesterday's low before closing higher by 1.25% at 1.62. The stock formed a bullish harami-tweezer bottom, which is confirmed by ROC pointing up and momentum build up so I am expecting it to advance again in the coming days.

FGEN continued to consolidate in today's session as there are strong selling pressure whenever it reaches 14. ROC is pointing up but momentum seems to weaken so it might consolidate further at best. However, if the resistance at 14 is taken out convincingly, expect it to advance further with next resistance at 16.

Weekly charts of all three are calling for sell at rallies. It might be the best thing to do so I can assess the market better and take better position.

2-centavo paper loss in MEG - 13 trading days
7-centavo paper loss in DGTL - 4 trading days
10-centavo paper loss in FGEN - 3 trading days


I need to re-write my trading plan!

Personal Disclosure

The market was down by 18 points during the session before closing 1 point higher at the end of the session. CMT was the only one to advance significantly with high volume. Other significant gainers for today are EDC, AP, GLO and MER.

Could it be that foreign funds are now rotating back into the power sector? CMT is still play and up until now, I don't know what's the story behind its movement. They are under construction-infrastructure sector of the market but I honestly haven't seen any of their projects.

I am disappointed somehow on my performance these previous weeks. Jumping on the mining train too late, FGEN and DGTL(although a little late too) behaving opposite of what I've expected while following my trading plan. Maybe I should sell all positions so I can assess the market better. MEG is my saving grace as it is behaving the way I've expected it to do.

I was expecting FGEN to advance in today's session but it met a strong selling pressure instead and with relatively high volume too. Hopefully the resistance at 14 gets broken this week so it can advance further although I doubt it because foreign funds are net sellers the last seven days including today.

The selling continued today in DGTL plus foreign funds also started selling. The gap it made last Friday is being threatened to be filled tomorrow. Ready to cut. Again.

As I've expected, MEG touched my personal support at 2.26-2.28 but its low for today at 2.25 was 1 centavo lower from my support. Anyway, my personal support defended the said level as MEG closed at 2.30, 1 centavo lower from my entry. It could advance again anytime by now as my technical indicators are pointing. The net foreign selling these past seven days are making me feel uneasy though.

All three stocks looks bad on the weekly chart so I will try to sell all of them in rallies.

The possible reason why I am losing money this previous week is I could be possibly forcing money out of the market.

I've spent 60% of last month's gain already trying to figure out this market.

Personal Disclosure

The market stepped on my "Do not step" nerve as it closed 43.96 points higher courtesy of the big bad TEL gaining 1% today while the second liners that I am currently holding turned red at the end of the day. The market has finally closed 3% higher from the 4000-psychological barrier. It would be just a matter of days now to clear the uptrend in the long term.

MEG closed 1 centavo lower from my entry, showing a very strong selling pressure throughout the session which was accompanied by relatively high volume. ROC is still pointing down so my personal support at 2.26 to 2.28 will probably get hit. Weekly chart is suggesting medium term peak so I might sell on rally this week.

DGTL was also sold down the entire session closing 3 centavos lower from my entry at 1.66. This current behavior of this stock is something I can't understand(I still don't understand). A gap up followed which was accompanied with exceptional volume was immediately followed by a strong selling pressure with volume that was half of the previous session? Anyway, I am expecting the support from Friday's gap at 1.61 holds. Otherwise I would be cutting here again. Judging from other stock behavior, consolidation in the short term is also possible.

Bought FGEN at 13.86 today from the proceeds of MA which I also sold at a loss today. It is currently resting at the resistance but with the ROC pointing up and the volume traded today, it would be safe to assume that it will be broken this week with a target of 14.90 in the short term. It closed today at 13.88 with two centavo gain.

2 losing trades out of 5 trades in two weeks. The 3 remaining positions are relatively unchanged.

MEG - eleven days.
DGTL - two days.
FGEN - one day.

Maybe I shouldn't be pushing my patience by holding long onto my current positions. Previous holding time are showing better performance as they showed gains instead of unchanged position/losses.

Do I need to sell all of my current holdings to make a better assessment of the general market condition? Currently no mentor for this kind of market condition.

DIGITAL TEL. PHILIPPINES, INC. (DGTL)

1 Year Daily Chart



Monthly, weekly and daily trends are up. Volume follows price movements (increases as price advances and decreases in price declines) so it is safe to assume the recent uptrend is healthy.

There is a reversed head and shoulder pattern that is visible in the monthly, weekly and daily charts, with the neckline at 1.64.

Broken neckline of reversed head and shoulder target: 2.33
Short term target: 1.85 (gap up target)

Support: 1.61
Major resistance: 2 - 2.44.

Alsons Consolidated Resources (ACR)

Monthly Chart



Monthly trend is up as pointed by MACD above zero line and 10-MA is above 50-MA. MACD histogram is suggesting that the trend has just began.

A rising method candlestick pattern showed in the monthly charts suggesting further price advances in the intermediate term.

Weekly Chart



Broke out of downtrend early this month that started November last year. Recent up trend is confirmed by the crossing of the MACD line over the zero line. However, the 10-MA is still below the 50-MA.

Latest candlestick formation is a bullish belt hold which supports the idea of further price advance in the intermediate term.

Daily Chart



Daily trend is also up but recent doji candlestick formation suggests short term peak.

SUMMARY
Monthly and weekly charts are suggesting price advances in the intermediate term so declines in the daily charts should merit a buy. However, it would be better to wait for the price to bounce back before taking in a new position.

If the price consolidates in the current levels, price advancing to 1.35 would merit a buy.

Price advances are accompanied by increase in volume so it would be safe to assume that the recent uptrend is healthy.

Support: 1.21
Resistance:1.60; if broken
Target: 2.50