The market today closed by 26 points lower from the 4000 level, closing at 3979. It was basically correction time for most stocks today.
GMAP is still holding up at 7.35 with so much volume traded today courtesy of the big block sales by certain brokerage houses. Are they accumulating or distributing? The verdict is on Monday and I am ready to cut!
MEG seems to be encountering strong resistance at 2.40 slightly breaking above it but not enough as the penetration is less than 3% therefore I am expecting it to correct early next week or it will consolidate for the mean time.
I was right that there would be immediate resistance at 13 but I did not expect it to consolidate instead of making a correction. Anyway, it moved up today, slightly penetrating the next resistance at 14 but not enough to merit a buy. I'll observe how this one will go by Monday.
AT also broke its resistance at 14 by more than 3% today. I saw a buy signal yesterday but I did not took it.
I think PX has better risk-reward in comparison with AT so I am more inclined to buy PX instead of AT. I'll see how both go on Monday.
Which one is the faster horse? GMAP is one sick horse for sure.
Month 2 Day 5
Sitting on a 8.90% net paper loss courtesy of GMAP.
Break-even with MEG.
*I am now also trying to add the triple screening to my system. It is somewhat identical to the basic principles of my system. It is somewhat more defined so I might have gotten the idea from the article subconsciously. Anyway, it still can't solve my problem with spiking movements, from breakouts and consolidation. Maybe I am taking it the wrong way, or it simply cannot work well in this current conditions.
**The probable psychology of a candlestick opening lower the middle band and then closing above the upper band is the buying might have been overdone, thus the succeeding session results in profit taking or indecision. I'll post some charts regarding this.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market decided to climb up again today as it gained another 31.98 points, closing slightly above the new territory at 4005. However, blue chips are left behind as third liners decided to take the reins.
GMAP is struggling as it still closed lower today from the previous day at 7.40. However 7.35 seems to be providing solid support for the mean time. The declining volume with the price decline would appear to me as a bullish indication. I am being bias though so the cut loss point still stands.
MEG continued to climb today contrary to what I was expecting, breaking the huge seller at 2.39 before it was sold down and closing at 2.37. But it's not like I am complaining. I'll be adding more position here once it makes a correction.
After the shooting star that AT formed, it was followed up today with a bullish engulfing, pointing that the 15.62 gap up target valid. FGEN continued to climb today but profit taking ensues, driving the prices down. Immediate support at 13.08.
Month 2 Day 4
Sitting on a 9% paper loss courtesy of GMAP and MEG. Most of the losses are from GMAP as MEG is simply 1 centavo away from break-even.
GMAP is struggling as it still closed lower today from the previous day at 7.40. However 7.35 seems to be providing solid support for the mean time. The declining volume with the price decline would appear to me as a bullish indication. I am being bias though so the cut loss point still stands.
MEG continued to climb today contrary to what I was expecting, breaking the huge seller at 2.39 before it was sold down and closing at 2.37. But it's not like I am complaining. I'll be adding more position here once it makes a correction.
After the shooting star that AT formed, it was followed up today with a bullish engulfing, pointing that the 15.62 gap up target valid. FGEN continued to climb today but profit taking ensues, driving the prices down. Immediate support at 13.08.
Month 2 Day 4
Sitting on a 9% paper loss courtesy of GMAP and MEG. Most of the losses are from GMAP as MEG is simply 1 centavo away from break-even.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Well, looks like the market has finally taking a breather as it closed by only 5 points up from yesterday's session.
I was basically watching GMAP the whole time, as I was waiting for it to break 7.35 and cut loss. Luckily it held at 7.35 so I just held on to my position. If I followed my original trading plan here, I could have gotten in today with minimal risk. Anyway, it closed today with a tweezer bottom so I am expecting it to head back up again. I'll cut instead if it goes the other way around.
MEG didn't do much today as it closed at 2.32, .01 centavo lower from yesterday. I am still expecting it to go lower in the next few days.
AT closed with a very ugly shooting star pattern today. Immediate support at 13.26.
FGEN continued to move up as it made a gap today. I'm expecting it to move up again before making a correction.
Hopefully, my candlestick reading today for both position is correct.
Month 2 Day 3
Sitting on a 12% net paper loss from both positions.
I was basically watching GMAP the whole time, as I was waiting for it to break 7.35 and cut loss. Luckily it held at 7.35 so I just held on to my position. If I followed my original trading plan here, I could have gotten in today with minimal risk. Anyway, it closed today with a tweezer bottom so I am expecting it to head back up again. I'll cut instead if it goes the other way around.
MEG didn't do much today as it closed at 2.32, .01 centavo lower from yesterday. I am still expecting it to go lower in the next few days.
AT closed with a very ugly shooting star pattern today. Immediate support at 13.26.
FGEN continued to move up as it made a gap today. I'm expecting it to move up again before making a correction.
Hopefully, my candlestick reading today for both position is correct.
Month 2 Day 3
Sitting on a 12% net paper loss from both positions.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Megaworld Corporation (MEG)
Here is the 2-year daily chart of MEG
It broke out of 2-year resistance. With the unfilled gap at 2.15, I doubt that it will go back below 2.
Is MEG a buy with this current condition?
Now, testing something I read before, I am also now trying to see it a new perspective:
Assuming that short-selling is allowed in our market, would you short MEG in this condition?
Caveat.
It broke out of 2-year resistance. With the unfilled gap at 2.15, I doubt that it will go back below 2.
Is MEG a buy with this current condition?
Now, testing something I read before, I am also now trying to see it a new perspective:
Assuming that short-selling is allowed in our market, would you short MEG in this condition?
Caveat.
Personal Disclosure
The market finally started to correct today as it closed 4 points lower from yesterday's session at 3968. I'm expecting the market to decline further for another two days minimum (but it could extend to five days) before heading back up again.
GMAP closed 3.87% lower from yesterday's closing, leaving me with -8.26% net. The gap at 7.45-7.48 was closed today. If price continues to hold at this level, I am convinced that this decline is simply a healthy correction. However, if it continues to drop, I am ready to cut loss. This one currently belongs to my expensive mistakes whenever I decide to do something stupid.
MEG continued to advance today closing at 2.33. Latest candlestick looks very ugly though. 2.23 should provide a good re-entry once it corrects. I am also expecting it to correct for another day or two before heading back up again.
If GMAP doesn't move up and continues to consolidate once it established a support, I will still cut loss and add up my position in MEG. GMAP has time to move up until MEG corrects.
AT and FGEN are the best performers today as they gained 13.26% and 13.06% respectively with exceptional volume.
20% per trade in a bull run seems like a piece of cake. Trade execution is probably my current problem.
I think I would be sitting through the entire second month with my current positions as the commission is killing me. I'll try to swing trades once I open an account with Citisec.
Month 2 Day 2
Sitting on a 8.26% paper loss with GMAP and 3% commission loss with MEG.
Way to start my second month!
Trading plan: Sit tight and get ready to cut the losses!
*Candlesticks that opens below the middle bollinger band and closes outside the upper band suggests peak in the immediate future.
*Tweezers seems to be more reliable when they are in the middle of the trend.
GMAP closed 3.87% lower from yesterday's closing, leaving me with -8.26% net. The gap at 7.45-7.48 was closed today. If price continues to hold at this level, I am convinced that this decline is simply a healthy correction. However, if it continues to drop, I am ready to cut loss. This one currently belongs to my expensive mistakes whenever I decide to do something stupid.
MEG continued to advance today closing at 2.33. Latest candlestick looks very ugly though. 2.23 should provide a good re-entry once it corrects. I am also expecting it to correct for another day or two before heading back up again.
If GMAP doesn't move up and continues to consolidate once it established a support, I will still cut loss and add up my position in MEG. GMAP has time to move up until MEG corrects.
AT and FGEN are the best performers today as they gained 13.26% and 13.06% respectively with exceptional volume.
20% per trade in a bull run seems like a piece of cake. Trade execution is probably my current problem.
I think I would be sitting through the entire second month with my current positions as the commission is killing me. I'll try to swing trades once I open an account with Citisec.
Month 2 Day 2
Sitting on a 8.26% paper loss with GMAP and 3% commission loss with MEG.
Way to start my second month!
Trading plan: Sit tight and get ready to cut the losses!
*Candlesticks that opens below the middle bollinger band and closes outside the upper band suggests peak in the immediate future.
*Tweezers seems to be more reliable when they are in the middle of the trend.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Wow, I am out of words. We are still trading in the green zone after ten trading days, up by 70 points closing today at 3972. Before, everybody was expecting to meet a strong resistance at the previous high.
Foreign buyers are still on buying frenzy today so I decided to jump in too(while holding my breath)!
I bought GMAP earlier today at 7.90 but it closed lower at 7.75, netting 1.89% loss today. The reason I bought GMAP today is to satisfy my father's wish to buy it. Technically though, it looks really ugly in the short term in terms of candlesticks and my other technical indicators. The only indicator that's keeping me relaxed with my current position here is its volume. Increasing volume with ascending price movement. How bad can it go? 10-day moving average has also crossed above 200-day moving average confirming the uptrend. It broke out of its major resistance at 7.70 but it is still struggling to hold up so it still might correct in the immediate future but I am expecting it to hold above the gap up before at 7.48.
I also bought MEG at the end of session at 2.31, which I should have bought earlier. I have no recent analysis for MEG here in my new entries but I have been monitoring and analyzing it while I was holding DMC before. Breaking my personal three-year resistance at 2.15 today with exceptional volume is the reason why I bought MEG. It also made a gap up at 2.15 from 2.13 which should have been enough to merit a buy earlier. It should also provide a strong support once it corrects. I am looking at 2.56 as a possible target in the short term.
Another stock I have been monitoring closely is MPI. It's now about to break out from its ten-year(weekly) down trend at 3.90. If it makes a convincing breakout at 3.90, I am expecting it to close its previous gap down with immediate resistance at 4.40. The probability of breaking out is relatively high because of the multiple moving average crossover.
Keeping a tight trailing stop in the current bull run is probably a mistake that I put up in my trading system. Maybe I should loosen up my trailing stops now?
Tight trailing stops would probably work best in a trending mode with normal pacing.
I still haven't figured out how to trade this crazy market!
Day 1, second month of my trading system.
Trading plan: Sit tight!
Foreign buyers are still on buying frenzy today so I decided to jump in too(while holding my breath)!
I bought GMAP earlier today at 7.90 but it closed lower at 7.75, netting 1.89% loss today. The reason I bought GMAP today is to satisfy my father's wish to buy it. Technically though, it looks really ugly in the short term in terms of candlesticks and my other technical indicators. The only indicator that's keeping me relaxed with my current position here is its volume. Increasing volume with ascending price movement. How bad can it go? 10-day moving average has also crossed above 200-day moving average confirming the uptrend. It broke out of its major resistance at 7.70 but it is still struggling to hold up so it still might correct in the immediate future but I am expecting it to hold above the gap up before at 7.48.
I also bought MEG at the end of session at 2.31, which I should have bought earlier. I have no recent analysis for MEG here in my new entries but I have been monitoring and analyzing it while I was holding DMC before. Breaking my personal three-year resistance at 2.15 today with exceptional volume is the reason why I bought MEG. It also made a gap up at 2.15 from 2.13 which should have been enough to merit a buy earlier. It should also provide a strong support once it corrects. I am looking at 2.56 as a possible target in the short term.
Another stock I have been monitoring closely is MPI. It's now about to break out from its ten-year(weekly) down trend at 3.90. If it makes a convincing breakout at 3.90, I am expecting it to close its previous gap down with immediate resistance at 4.40. The probability of breaking out is relatively high because of the multiple moving average crossover.
Keeping a tight trailing stop in the current bull run is probably a mistake that I put up in my trading system. Maybe I should loosen up my trailing stops now?
Tight trailing stops would probably work best in a trending mode with normal pacing.
I still haven't figured out how to trade this crazy market!
Day 1, second month of my trading system.
Trading plan: Sit tight!
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The index broke out of its previous peak at 3873, closing with 97 points up at 3902, stronger than . People say it's officially a bull run now. So maybe this time, I need to find the faster horse :)
My bid at GMAP didn't get hit today after it met strong selling once it reached 8. I probably should have held on to my position in DMC which I sold last Monday at 24.20 as it still went as high as 26.10 before closing at 25.60.
I observed this week that my new trading system is not fit to trade this market behavior. It is only good in trading trending market in normal pacing so I need to figure out how to trade in this new environment.
Second month for the new trading system. I am hoping for a buying opportunity by Monday or Tuesday.
My bid at GMAP didn't get hit today after it met strong selling once it reached 8. I probably should have held on to my position in DMC which I sold last Monday at 24.20 as it still went as high as 26.10 before closing at 25.60.
I observed this week that my new trading system is not fit to trade this market behavior. It is only good in trading trending market in normal pacing so I need to figure out how to trade in this new environment.
Second month for the new trading system. I am hoping for a buying opportunity by Monday or Tuesday.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Asian markets closed in the red zone today and European markets are still trading in the red zone as of this writing. US Futures are also in the red. I wonder how the market will react tomorrow as we still ended up green with 29 points after ALI went back to its normal pricing that sent the market 50 points lower earlier in the session.
Still no trades for today, still waiting for entry points. However, I looked for rotational plays today when my primary trades goes for corrections and I found two possible trades. I will try to study their behavior for the mean time.
BDO continued to trend up for 10 days straight now, gaining 15.80%. I'm surprised by its movement though as I was not expecting it to trend continuously. It might reach 60-62 before correcting back. I am expecting it to consolidate when it corrects.
One-trading day left for the first month of my new trading system.
Still no trades for today, still waiting for entry points. However, I looked for rotational plays today when my primary trades goes for corrections and I found two possible trades. I will try to study their behavior for the mean time.
BDO continued to trend up for 10 days straight now, gaining 15.80%. I'm surprised by its movement though as I was not expecting it to trend continuously. It might reach 60-62 before correcting back. I am expecting it to consolidate when it corrects.
One-trading day left for the first month of my new trading system.
DMCI Holdings (DMC)
Trading Plan
Entry: 23.37 - 22.90 - 22.42
Target: 26.42 - 27.37
Cut loss: 21.84
Gap up at 22 suggests immediate support, pointing at 25.15 as target.
Currently trading at all time high.
Entry: 23.37 - 22.90 - 22.42
Target: 26.42 - 27.37
Cut loss: 21.84
Gap up at 22 suggests immediate support, pointing at 25.15 as target.
Currently trading at all time high.
Metro Pacific Investmenst Corp. (MPI)
Trading plan
Entry: 3.55 - 3.50 - 3.43
Target: 3.94 - 4.06
Cut loss: 3.36
Gap up at 3.62 has been filled. The gap up at this level is possibly an exhaustion gap before correcting.
Gap up at 3.40 suggests immediate support, pointing at 3.82 as target.
Major resistance at 3.80.
Entry: 3.55 - 3.50 - 3.43
Target: 3.94 - 4.06
Cut loss: 3.36
Gap up at 3.62 has been filled. The gap up at this level is possibly an exhaustion gap before correcting.
Gap up at 3.40 suggests immediate support, pointing at 3.82 as target.
Major resistance at 3.80.
GMA Holdings (GMAP)
Initial trading plan
Entry: 6.65 - 7
1% Bounce from entry: 6.71 - 7.07
Break-even: 7.20
Psychological resistance: 7.70 - 8.10
Major resistance: 8.60
Cut loss: 6.40 - 6.76
New trading plan
Entry: 7.30 - 7.08 - 6.93 - 6.76
Target: 8.11 - 8.43
Cut loss: 6.56
Formed a tweezer bottom suggesting an immediate support at 7.30 in the short term.
Gap up support at 6.65, pointing at 8.30 as target.
Entry: 6.65 - 7
1% Bounce from entry: 6.71 - 7.07
Break-even: 7.20
Psychological resistance: 7.70 - 8.10
Major resistance: 8.60
Cut loss: 6.40 - 6.76
New trading plan
Entry: 7.30 - 7.08 - 6.93 - 6.76
Target: 8.11 - 8.43
Cut loss: 6.56
Formed a tweezer bottom suggesting an immediate support at 7.30 in the short term.
Gap up support at 6.65, pointing at 8.30 as target.
Alliance Global Group Inc. (AGI)
Trading Plan
Minor Trend - Short term
Entry points : 7.12 - 6.97 - 6.81
Target: 8.16 - 8.48
Cut loss: 6.65
Intermediate Trend - Medium term
Entry points: 7.06 - 6.88 - 6.70
Target: 8.23 - 8.59
Cut loss: 6.48
Major Trend - Long term
Entry points: 6.79 - 6.52 - 6.25
Target: 8.50 - 9.04
Cut loss: 5.93
Formed a tweezer top suggesting short-term peak.
Gap support at 6.87, pointing at 7.79 as target.
Caveat.
Minor Trend - Short term
Entry points : 7.12 - 6.97 - 6.81
Target: 8.16 - 8.48
Cut loss: 6.65
Intermediate Trend - Medium term
Entry points: 7.06 - 6.88 - 6.70
Target: 8.23 - 8.59
Cut loss: 6.48
Major Trend - Long term
Entry points: 6.79 - 6.52 - 6.25
Target: 8.50 - 9.04
Cut loss: 5.93
Formed a tweezer top suggesting short-term peak.
Gap support at 6.87, pointing at 7.79 as target.
Caveat.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Personal Disclosure
Nothing happened much in today's trading as we were down by 5 points when I left while I was basically waiting for buying opportunities. When I got back, the market closed higher by 31 points courtesy of ALI gaining 10% for the day closing at 18.
GMAP reached my predicted price and it is now starting to correct. DMC began to correct today as the recent ascend was unsustainable. AGI still bounced strongly after being sold down last week and it is now beginning to correct also. I am more inclined to buy AGI though since I already know how it moves.
What I need to do now is to find stocks to rotate my funds with as I have no trades the following week after I liquidate. MEG, FGEN, JFC, and BEL are possible candidates for rotation. However, I am a bit unsure with the trend strength of BEL. We'll see how it goes.
Will write my trading plan this week. Still waiting for entry points.
GMAP reached my predicted price and it is now starting to correct. DMC began to correct today as the recent ascend was unsustainable. AGI still bounced strongly after being sold down last week and it is now beginning to correct also. I am more inclined to buy AGI though since I already know how it moves.
What I need to do now is to find stocks to rotate my funds with as I have no trades the following week after I liquidate. MEG, FGEN, JFC, and BEL are possible candidates for rotation. However, I am a bit unsure with the trend strength of BEL. We'll see how it goes.
Will write my trading plan this week. Still waiting for entry points.
Monday, September 6, 2010
New Trading System
After 14 days of testing my new trading system, I have only gained 38.32% of the initial target(25% of capital). With six-trading days left for my new trading system, I don't think I can find a trade to make up for the 61.68% that I have not gained yet after 14-trading days without putting my trading capital at a high risk as the general market has already climbed so much this past week.
First mistake that I made with my new trading system is I didn't wait for corrections to fully mature by taking up positions prematurely as I have done with MPI as my technical indicator has not confirmed my entry before, thus prolonging my exposure to market forces too long.
Second mistake that I made was not pulling the trigger fast enough. This happened when I took a position in FLI and not selling it when there was a clear sell signal. I could have simply taken another position with lower cost as it fell to 1.15, .04 centavos lower than my original cost. Or I could have added the proceeds of FLI to my recent position in MPI. Holding longer than more than 5-trading days are exposed to missing more profitable opportunities.
The third and last mistake is waiting for too much confirmation which happened to basically all the trades I made with the exception of cutting my losses in FPH.
Another weakness I found out with this trading system is that I have no stocks to rotate one my funds once I close out my positions, leaving me waiting for five-trading days for my current positions to correct.
3 out of the 4 trades came out successful within the 20-trading day limit, with 6 trading days left. I am pretty sure that there's a computation for success rates so I will not compute it as I don't have the formula right now. Gotta check my other notes.
FGEN - 4.83% Net loss - one-trading day
FLI - 6.25% Net gain - eleven-trading days
MPI - 8.20% Net gain - seven-trading days
DMC - 10.50% Net gain - six-trading days
Trading settings:
1. 1-2% bounce from entry price should be enough to warrant a buy. The allocated bounce from entry is there to minimize the risk of the trade going south and cutting loss.
2. Holding time is now back to five to six-trading days, depending on trend strength and momentum but should not last for more than 10-trading days.
3. Never take positions prematurely. Current technical indicator is good in pointing out good entry timing.
4. Find a faster way to pull the trigger in trailing stops.
Also, the technical indicator I am using is very useful in pointing out entries but it is relatively weaker in giving selling signals so I still need another technical indicator that sends off better sell signals. Williams' Percentage Range (%R) might be good but I still need to test it to see if it works in trending positions.
Overall, my new trading system only gained 9.63% of total capital. It's not bad but I am not impressed. I still need to work on pulling the trigger faster once the trailing stops get hit.
First mistake that I made with my new trading system is I didn't wait for corrections to fully mature by taking up positions prematurely as I have done with MPI as my technical indicator has not confirmed my entry before, thus prolonging my exposure to market forces too long.
Second mistake that I made was not pulling the trigger fast enough. This happened when I took a position in FLI and not selling it when there was a clear sell signal. I could have simply taken another position with lower cost as it fell to 1.15, .04 centavos lower than my original cost. Or I could have added the proceeds of FLI to my recent position in MPI. Holding longer than more than 5-trading days are exposed to missing more profitable opportunities.
The third and last mistake is waiting for too much confirmation which happened to basically all the trades I made with the exception of cutting my losses in FPH.
Another weakness I found out with this trading system is that I have no stocks to rotate one my funds once I close out my positions, leaving me waiting for five-trading days for my current positions to correct.
3 out of the 4 trades came out successful within the 20-trading day limit, with 6 trading days left. I am pretty sure that there's a computation for success rates so I will not compute it as I don't have the formula right now. Gotta check my other notes.
FGEN - 4.83% Net loss - one-trading day
FLI - 6.25% Net gain - eleven-trading days
MPI - 8.20% Net gain - seven-trading days
DMC - 10.50% Net gain - six-trading days
Trading settings:
1. 1-2% bounce from entry price should be enough to warrant a buy. The allocated bounce from entry is there to minimize the risk of the trade going south and cutting loss.
2. Holding time is now back to five to six-trading days, depending on trend strength and momentum but should not last for more than 10-trading days.
3. Never take positions prematurely. Current technical indicator is good in pointing out good entry timing.
4. Find a faster way to pull the trigger in trailing stops.
Also, the technical indicator I am using is very useful in pointing out entries but it is relatively weaker in giving selling signals so I still need another technical indicator that sends off better sell signals. Williams' Percentage Range (%R) might be good but I still need to test it to see if it works in trending positions.
Overall, my new trading system only gained 9.63% of total capital. It's not bad but I am not impressed. I still need to work on pulling the trigger faster once the trailing stops get hit.
Personal Disclosure
The market opened strong in today's trading with a high of 3787 but most traders locked in their profits today driving the index lower gaining and closing with 9.4 points only. Today might be the start of the correction as the candlesticks are showing a scary shooting star - possibly evening star in the making. Possible support at 3620. If it does otherwise, the market is running into the danger of overheating.
By mid-session, I decided to take profits and close out my positions in MPI at 3.66 with 8.20% net gain and FLI at 1.30 with 6.25% net gain, as both trailing stop got hit. I could have sold MPI for more but a misunderstanding happened with my broker today as they were seeing 3.71 in the bid but I was seeing 3.69 already so I decided not to sell just yet. When 3.68 bid side was demolished, I decided to sell at market which was 3.66 already as 3.67 was easily sold down. The error cost me 1.10% in that trade, .04 centavos off my trailing stop.
Later in today's session, the support in DMC collapsed steadily, closing at 24.20, the same level I closed my position with a 10.50% net gain.
Overall performance, DMC outperformed all the other stocks I held, taking me by surprise as it has relatively low risk with high reward performance. Performance was also confirmed by the length of holding time vs the profit it gained. DMC gained 10.50% within six-trading days, MPI with 8.20% within seven-trading days, and FLI with 6.25% within eleven trading days.
Most of the stocks that I held closed with bearish patterns. MPI and FLI both closed with bearish engulfing while DMC closed with a shooting star, all are enough to merit a sell signal.
Now that I closed my positions early this week, it's now a waiting game to find possible entries in GMAP, GMA7, PX and in DMC again. I need to write a trading plan for these before the weekends.
By mid-session, I decided to take profits and close out my positions in MPI at 3.66 with 8.20% net gain and FLI at 1.30 with 6.25% net gain, as both trailing stop got hit. I could have sold MPI for more but a misunderstanding happened with my broker today as they were seeing 3.71 in the bid but I was seeing 3.69 already so I decided not to sell just yet. When 3.68 bid side was demolished, I decided to sell at market which was 3.66 already as 3.67 was easily sold down. The error cost me 1.10% in that trade, .04 centavos off my trailing stop.
Later in today's session, the support in DMC collapsed steadily, closing at 24.20, the same level I closed my position with a 10.50% net gain.
Overall performance, DMC outperformed all the other stocks I held, taking me by surprise as it has relatively low risk with high reward performance. Performance was also confirmed by the length of holding time vs the profit it gained. DMC gained 10.50% within six-trading days, MPI with 8.20% within seven-trading days, and FLI with 6.25% within eleven trading days.
Most of the stocks that I held closed with bearish patterns. MPI and FLI both closed with bearish engulfing while DMC closed with a shooting star, all are enough to merit a sell signal.
Now that I closed my positions early this week, it's now a waiting game to find possible entries in GMAP, GMA7, PX and in DMC again. I need to write a trading plan for these before the weekends.
Personal Disclosure and trading plan for this week
DOW closing another +127 points last Friday is still making me bullish. However this might be a sign of impending correction this week. I still believe that the correction might come late this week, possibly on Thursday as Friday was declared as a non-working holiday in recognition of the end of Ramadan. I am looking at 3595 as possible support once the market makes a correction.
Basically, the trading plan for this week is to look for possible exits.
FLI has started to show weakness in the charts. However, it still needs confirmation before taking action. MPI has also shown weakness as shown in its rate of change. Possible exit at 3.82 once weakness surfaces. DMC seems like it lost momentum and it's ready to make a correction, possibly forming the usual rising three methods. This might be the only one I'd keep as it only makes small corrections before moving back up again. All trailing stop are now active, maybe with an exception to DMC. Let's see what happens this week.
PX, GMAP and GMA7 might also be worth looking this week.
Monday!
Basically, the trading plan for this week is to look for possible exits.
FLI has started to show weakness in the charts. However, it still needs confirmation before taking action. MPI has also shown weakness as shown in its rate of change. Possible exit at 3.82 once weakness surfaces. DMC seems like it lost momentum and it's ready to make a correction, possibly forming the usual rising three methods. This might be the only one I'd keep as it only makes small corrections before moving back up again. All trailing stop are now active, maybe with an exception to DMC. Let's see what happens this week.
PX, GMAP and GMA7 might also be worth looking this week.
Monday!
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPI)
It appears that the stock has broken out of its uptrend channel the last week and it is now trading within the gap down that was formed on September 25 last year. It also looks like it's about to test a major resistance at 3.80, with a higher possibility of breaking it as the volume accompanying with the trade last week is relatively high. The MACD crossing above the zero line and the
10-week moving average crossing 50-week moving average also confirms of the further ascend. OBV reading also suggests that the price movement is normal(bullish) as it fluctuates together with the price movement.
Six-month daily chart analysis
Price movement accelerated further after breaking out of its downtrend, confirmed by the crossing-over of the 10 and 20-day moving average over the 200-day moving average which was accompanied by high volume. DMI reading also suggests that the current uptrend is very strong. However, the weakening of the ROC should be a concern as it might be a warning of weakness in the short term.
Major resistances are at 3.80(short term) and 4.70(long-term).
Major support is at 3.62(short term).
Ideally, the stock should reach 3.86 before making a correction and heads back at 3.62.
*UPDATE
Two-Year weekly chart analysis
Broke the resistance at 3.75. Expect to retest 3.75 before moving up again.
Is MPI a buy or sell?
Caveat.
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Scans for next week: GMA Holdings (GMAP)
Broke out of its one-year downtrend last September 3 accompanied by relatively high volume as also confirmed by the MACD line crossing over the zero line. 10-day and 20-day moving averages are still below the 200-day MA suggesting the need of further confirmation before taking position. However, 10-day MA has already crossed over the 20-day MA so it may warrant a confirmation of entry.
The ideal movement of the stock next week is to reach 7.50 before it starts to correct.
Once it makes a correction, expect the price to hold at 7. A bounce off that price level with volume would warrant a confirmation of entry and expect to meet immediate resistance at 7.70.
Major resistances in the short to medium term are 7.70, 8.10 and 8.60. There was also a resistance at 7 but it was taken out in yesterday's session.
The was also a small gap formed last Friday, pointing at 8.24 as a target.
However, if it drops further below 7, it would suggest that the breakout is a failure and it will most likely to resume its downtrend.
Entry: 6.65 - 7
1% Bounce from entry: 6.71 - 7.07
Break-even: 7.20
Psychological resistance: 7.70 - 8.10
Major resistance: 8.60
Cut loss: 6.40 - 6.76
Inverted 2-year chart:
Is it a buy or sell?
Caveat.