American and european markets are up by more than 1% as of this writing.
Are we gonna get some?
Or are we going to be outside of the kulambo this time?
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Stock selection
Here are the stocks that I am currently watching:
5-minute chart - six days:
There are four stocks that went up from the starting point namely DMC, AGI, MEG and RFM which stayed neutral for the first few days before catching up with the first three. DMC and MEG just started to move up again in this time frame while AGI started to decline.
The other two stocks went down from the starting point namely AEV and AT while AP still remained flat.
The divergence among the stocks is probably a sign of potential for rotational plays.
The flattening of AP is probably a good sign for positioning.
Let's see how they all go by next week to see if I am correct in my assumptions.
Now, looking at their daily chart - six months:
It seems that RFM outperformed every stock on my list with only DMC catching up with it lately, all thanks to that two weeks or so consolidation.
AP is under-performing amongst the stock selection together with AT. Let's see how they perform this month and see if I am right on betting on AP.
Holding Companies:
Here is a possible rotational play for swing trading as there seems to be a slight divergence with AEV and AGI. Meanwhile, DMC is outperforming both.
Other Sectors:
Here is a possible rotational play for swing trading as there seems to be a slight divergence lately with AT and MEG. Meanwhile, AP is currently underperforming from both stocks although it still trending up but at a relatively slower pacing.
There's nothing to compare with RFM as it outperformed every other stock on the list.
Conclusion:
Swing trading rotation:
AEV-AGI
AT-MEG
Position trading:
AP: moderately conservative, swing-trading would be relatively unproductive as it doesn't seem to decline significantly during corrections. It seems that implementing a buy and hold strategy is best.
DMC: moderately aggressive, swing-trading would be slightly unproductive as cost seems to be only slightly lower from the swings that it produces during its corrections. It seems that implementing a buy and hold strategy is best.
RFM: aggressive and slightly speculative. Swing-trading would be relatively productive as it declines relatively during corrections which is more than enough to cover costs.
*IF AP - the underperforming stock - catches up with RFM and DMC, that would be more than 60% potential upside.
Hope I'm right in this.
5-minute chart - six days:
There are four stocks that went up from the starting point namely DMC, AGI, MEG and RFM which stayed neutral for the first few days before catching up with the first three. DMC and MEG just started to move up again in this time frame while AGI started to decline.
The other two stocks went down from the starting point namely AEV and AT while AP still remained flat.
The divergence among the stocks is probably a sign of potential for rotational plays.
The flattening of AP is probably a good sign for positioning.
Let's see how they all go by next week to see if I am correct in my assumptions.
Now, looking at their daily chart - six months:
It seems that RFM outperformed every stock on my list with only DMC catching up with it lately, all thanks to that two weeks or so consolidation.
AP is under-performing amongst the stock selection together with AT. Let's see how they perform this month and see if I am right on betting on AP.
Holding Companies:
Here is a possible rotational play for swing trading as there seems to be a slight divergence with AEV and AGI. Meanwhile, DMC is outperforming both.
Other Sectors:
Here is a possible rotational play for swing trading as there seems to be a slight divergence lately with AT and MEG. Meanwhile, AP is currently underperforming from both stocks although it still trending up but at a relatively slower pacing.
There's nothing to compare with RFM as it outperformed every other stock on the list.
Conclusion:
Swing trading rotation:
AEV-AGI
AT-MEG
Position trading:
AP: moderately conservative, swing-trading would be relatively unproductive as it doesn't seem to decline significantly during corrections. It seems that implementing a buy and hold strategy is best.
DMC: moderately aggressive, swing-trading would be slightly unproductive as cost seems to be only slightly lower from the swings that it produces during its corrections. It seems that implementing a buy and hold strategy is best.
RFM: aggressive and slightly speculative. Swing-trading would be relatively productive as it declines relatively during corrections which is more than enough to cover costs.
*IF AP - the underperforming stock - catches up with RFM and DMC, that would be more than 60% potential upside.
Hope I'm right in this.
Personal Disclosure: Being wrong and right at the same time.
The market inched another 15.44 points today, closing at 4397 - 0.35% higher from yesterday's session. There could be one more possible movement to the upside before profit taking occurs as being suggested by the signal from MACD. Rate of change also seems relatively toppish at the moment.
AP continued its corrective consolidation today, closing at 28.35, 1.43% higher from yesterday's session. Rate of change has finally turned up suggesting the upward bias of the spinning top candle that formed today. Price advancement is very possible by tomorrow or early next week at worst.
Personal target for AP(initial): P35
DMC continued to advance today by 1.52%, closing at 39.95. Looking at the 5-minute chart, it would seem that the best buying window for this is when it is consolidating. Rate of change has already turn up again suggesting price advances in the short term although it already half-way near its previous peak.
The buy signal that I was talking about yesterday was confirmed today as it closed strongly today at 34.40, up by 2.08%. Rate of change has also continued to increase today, confirming strongly the buy signal that it gave yesterday, also suggesting the start of price advances again in the short term.
With that being said about DMC and AEV, I decided to sell DMC at 39.40 during the middle of the trading session and bought AEV at 34.10. The reason why I dropped DMC is that I believe that it is only capable of gaining another 5% or so in the short term in comparison with what's AEV could gain -in my belief- in the said time frame. I was hoping for DMC to move up significantly today so I could sell it just a bit higher but it was simply range trading the entire session within 39.35 to 39.40 range.
After I sold DMC, I bought AEV immediately although the timing is slightly off as I was hoping for a better timing. I was looking at its 5-minute chart hoping to time it correctly but I was feeling uneasy that it might go up suddenly so I posted a buy at 34.20. Luckily, my broker was acting slower today that it fell at 34.10 before my posting was done so I was done at that price. The 5-minute chart was suggesting a drop to 34 and lower is imminent but emotions got a better hold of me so there. That's what happens when emotions get in the way.
Anyway, buying AEV today was deemed correct by the market as it showed profit right after I bought it.
My selling of DMC is probably wrong as it continued to advance further after I sold it. However, the possibility that the buyer, who bought up DMC in the last minutes of trading, is wrong. Verdict by tomorrow.
AT still looks attractive to me but no more available funds. That's just sad.
Could it also be possible that RFM has already formed a short term peak at 2.12? Please make a corrective-consolidation for the mean time so I can buy you.
A new addition in my trading system seems to be working very well as a sell signal. I still haven't back-tested it yet but it is showing progress in the mean time - specially in this slightly trending-sideways-to-up market movement. Didn't use it on DMC though.
Sold DMC at 39.40 with 8.56% net gain on the seventh day of holding it.
Bought AEV at 34.10, closed at 34.40 (+0.0088%).
AP is currently up by 4.73% within ten-trading days. Doubled my previous position.
AP continued its corrective consolidation today, closing at 28.35, 1.43% higher from yesterday's session. Rate of change has finally turned up suggesting the upward bias of the spinning top candle that formed today. Price advancement is very possible by tomorrow or early next week at worst.
Personal target for AP(initial): P35
DMC continued to advance today by 1.52%, closing at 39.95. Looking at the 5-minute chart, it would seem that the best buying window for this is when it is consolidating. Rate of change has already turn up again suggesting price advances in the short term although it already half-way near its previous peak.
The buy signal that I was talking about yesterday was confirmed today as it closed strongly today at 34.40, up by 2.08%. Rate of change has also continued to increase today, confirming strongly the buy signal that it gave yesterday, also suggesting the start of price advances again in the short term.
With that being said about DMC and AEV, I decided to sell DMC at 39.40 during the middle of the trading session and bought AEV at 34.10. The reason why I dropped DMC is that I believe that it is only capable of gaining another 5% or so in the short term in comparison with what's AEV could gain -in my belief- in the said time frame. I was hoping for DMC to move up significantly today so I could sell it just a bit higher but it was simply range trading the entire session within 39.35 to 39.40 range.
After I sold DMC, I bought AEV immediately although the timing is slightly off as I was hoping for a better timing. I was looking at its 5-minute chart hoping to time it correctly but I was feeling uneasy that it might go up suddenly so I posted a buy at 34.20. Luckily, my broker was acting slower today that it fell at 34.10 before my posting was done so I was done at that price. The 5-minute chart was suggesting a drop to 34 and lower is imminent but emotions got a better hold of me so there. That's what happens when emotions get in the way.
Anyway, buying AEV today was deemed correct by the market as it showed profit right after I bought it.
My selling of DMC is probably wrong as it continued to advance further after I sold it. However, the possibility that the buyer, who bought up DMC in the last minutes of trading, is wrong. Verdict by tomorrow.
AT still looks attractive to me but no more available funds. That's just sad.
Could it also be possible that RFM has already formed a short term peak at 2.12? Please make a corrective-consolidation for the mean time so I can buy you.
A new addition in my trading system seems to be working very well as a sell signal. I still haven't back-tested it yet but it is showing progress in the mean time - specially in this slightly trending-sideways-to-up market movement. Didn't use it on DMC though.
Sold DMC at 39.40 with 8.56% net gain on the seventh day of holding it.
Bought AEV at 34.10, closed at 34.40 (+0.0088%).
AP is currently up by 4.73% within ten-trading days. Doubled my previous position.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Riding with the Bulls
Charts of companies' stock performance after their presentation with Citiseconline last October 27:
It would seem that AGI was the best performer after their presentation.
However:
A 6-month comparison shows that DMC has been outperforming the other issues, only seconded by AGI while the other two MPI and ICT were severely underperforming.
With that being said, I am more inclined to buy the stronger issue/s which are DMC and AGI.
It would seem that AGI was the best performer after their presentation.
However:
A 6-month comparison shows that DMC has been outperforming the other issues, only seconded by AGI while the other two MPI and ICT were severely underperforming.
With that being said, I am more inclined to buy the stronger issue/s which are DMC and AGI.
RFM CORPORATION (RFM)
10-Year Daily Chart
RFM has finally taken out its major resistance P2 today with exceptional volume after consolidating in more than two weeks, suggesting the resumption of its uptrend in the intermediate term.
The resumption of the uptrend is pointing out at 2.85 as target in intermediate term.
However, current uptrend would seem to be advancing in a slightly lower pacing from its previous advances as pointed out by the fan lines.
6-Month Daily Chart
It has also broke out of its ascending triangle pattern today, pointing out at 2.27 as an immediate target.
There are still no signs of danger appearing on its weekly chart.
I am trying to be careful in trading break outs, specially when it is their first so I would be still on the sidelines here as it deemed to be much safer to wait for a pull back. I also set a rule in my system to sell the first break out and buy the second one so today should have been a sell IF I had a position.
A pull back to P2 should provide a good buying opportunity, or as close as possible. If it would be possible, below P2 should also provide good bargains.
RFM is also highly obedient of its trend/support line.
Short Term Target: 2.27
Intermediate Term Target: 2.85
Immediate Support: 2
RFM has finally taken out its major resistance P2 today with exceptional volume after consolidating in more than two weeks, suggesting the resumption of its uptrend in the intermediate term.
The resumption of the uptrend is pointing out at 2.85 as target in intermediate term.
However, current uptrend would seem to be advancing in a slightly lower pacing from its previous advances as pointed out by the fan lines.
6-Month Daily Chart
It has also broke out of its ascending triangle pattern today, pointing out at 2.27 as an immediate target.
There are still no signs of danger appearing on its weekly chart.
I am trying to be careful in trading break outs, specially when it is their first so I would be still on the sidelines here as it deemed to be much safer to wait for a pull back. I also set a rule in my system to sell the first break out and buy the second one so today should have been a sell IF I had a position.
A pull back to P2 should provide a good buying opportunity, or as close as possible. If it would be possible, below P2 should also provide good bargains.
RFM is also highly obedient of its trend/support line.
Short Term Target: 2.27
Intermediate Term Target: 2.85
Immediate Support: 2
Personal Disclosure
The market continued to advance further in today's session, gaining another 40 points, closing at 4381 today, higher by 0.92% from yesterday's closing. Major index contributors today are SCC up by 6.23%, VLL up by 6.06%, SMC up by 4.88%, and MBT up by 3.94%. Major losers today are FGEN down by 3.43% and CEB down by 3.39%. CEB is now down by 4.16% from its IPO price.
The market is now seem to resume its uptrend after consolidating for four weeks as MACD is now slowly turning up.
Riding with the bulls is now being led by AGI +10.24%, ICT +9.4%, DMC +9.31% and MPI +7.81% after they played catch-up with DMC after their presentation with Citisec.
AP continued its corrective consolidation today closing at 27.95, higher by 0.18% only from yesterday's closing. Rate of change are looking to turn up that might indicate the resumption of uptrend although it could still end up flat on tomorrow's session. Uptrend might resume from late this week to early next week.
DMC continued to advance today despite of its declining rate of change, indicating bearish divergence with the indicator. The latest divergence that I saw within my watch list was from MEG which resulted into sideways movement for about two weeks before it started to head back up. So there are now two things that are needing attention: divergence in price to volume and divergence in price to rate of change.
Or it could simply move in a boxed pattern.
AEV gave off a buy signal today. A strong opening tomorrow should confirm the buy signal although it still has to sustain its strength upon closing.
Amongst the five stock that I put up in my watch list yesterday, Atlas seems to be the most attractive stock to buy as it's the one that have fallen the most in terms of rate of change. Coincidentally, its price today closed at 61.80% fibonacci retracement level.
RFM has finally woken up from its more than two weeks of consolidation, taking out the heavy resistance at 2 today with exceptional volume, reaching a high of 2.12 before closing at 2.06. Target in the current uptrend in the medium term is now at 2.85. I'm trying to be careful now with stocks behaving like this so I'll wait for a correction for the mean time before taking a position here. Expect the previous resistance at 2 to provide support when it pulls back and it should also provide a good buying window. I'll be posting its chart later today.
AP is currently up by 3.26% in nine trading days. Doubled my position in AP.
DMC is currently up by 8.42% in six trading days.
*AT is looking attractive at current conditions so I am thinking of dropping DMC for it. If AT opens strongly tomorrow and sustains it, closing above the 10SMA, I'll buy it and will drop DMC. Much better if DMC surges up by 5%. If it does more than that, I'm just going to hold onto it.
So much for following your plans.
The market is now seem to resume its uptrend after consolidating for four weeks as MACD is now slowly turning up.
Riding with the bulls is now being led by AGI +10.24%, ICT +9.4%, DMC +9.31% and MPI +7.81% after they played catch-up with DMC after their presentation with Citisec.
AP continued its corrective consolidation today closing at 27.95, higher by 0.18% only from yesterday's closing. Rate of change are looking to turn up that might indicate the resumption of uptrend although it could still end up flat on tomorrow's session. Uptrend might resume from late this week to early next week.
DMC continued to advance today despite of its declining rate of change, indicating bearish divergence with the indicator. The latest divergence that I saw within my watch list was from MEG which resulted into sideways movement for about two weeks before it started to head back up. So there are now two things that are needing attention: divergence in price to volume and divergence in price to rate of change.
Or it could simply move in a boxed pattern.
AEV gave off a buy signal today. A strong opening tomorrow should confirm the buy signal although it still has to sustain its strength upon closing.
Amongst the five stock that I put up in my watch list yesterday, Atlas seems to be the most attractive stock to buy as it's the one that have fallen the most in terms of rate of change. Coincidentally, its price today closed at 61.80% fibonacci retracement level.
RFM has finally woken up from its more than two weeks of consolidation, taking out the heavy resistance at 2 today with exceptional volume, reaching a high of 2.12 before closing at 2.06. Target in the current uptrend in the medium term is now at 2.85. I'm trying to be careful now with stocks behaving like this so I'll wait for a correction for the mean time before taking a position here. Expect the previous resistance at 2 to provide support when it pulls back and it should also provide a good buying window. I'll be posting its chart later today.
AP is currently up by 3.26% in nine trading days. Doubled my position in AP.
DMC is currently up by 8.42% in six trading days.
*AT is looking attractive at current conditions so I am thinking of dropping DMC for it. If AT opens strongly tomorrow and sustains it, closing above the 10SMA, I'll buy it and will drop DMC. Much better if DMC surges up by 5%. If it does more than that, I'm just going to hold onto it.
So much for following your plans.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market gained a whopping 73 points today, with major contributors coming from the industrial and holding firms.
Riding with the bulls are now being led by AGI +10.24%, ICT +10.05%, MPI 8.04% after playing catch up with DMC with +8.02%.
AP is poised for further correction in the short term as the rate of change is still declining. Uptrend might resume from late this week to early next week.
DMC is poised for a correction in the short term as suggested by declining rate of change.
Out of the five stocks I put on my watch list, two of them opened strongly, namely AGI and URC as both gave off a buy signal on the weekly charts. Despite of not opening strongly today, the other three - AT, PX, and PNB also gave a buy signal on their weekly charts, suggesting a buy this week. I'm all tied up with AP and DMC already so I'll just be watching all issues to confirm my ideas. One thing I am uncomfortable with is PX candlestick which is seem to be forming a falling method.
AEV also gave a buy signal today on the weekly chart while AP gave a sell signal in the weekly chart. Besides that, there's nothing much to worry about the Aboitiz stocks. AEV has also a inverted hammer candlestick on its chart so it might advance ahead of AP in the short term.
AP is currently up by 3.07% in eight trading days. Doubled my position in AP.
DMC is currently up by 7.04% in five trading days.
AP 70%
DMC 17%
Cash 13%
*Sitting tight for the mean time. I am thinking of holding either of them till December to reduce stress when trading. I would probably use the remaining 13% or less for swing trading just to cure the itch when watching the ticker or for speculative/high risk stock positions. I think I had my fair share of roller coaster ride in the stock market already. Anyway, hopefully by year end, I have doubled my capital so I'll have a better room for elbow next year! Gotta squeeze everything that we can get out of this bull market!!!
Riding with the bulls are now being led by AGI +10.24%, ICT +10.05%, MPI 8.04% after playing catch up with DMC with +8.02%.
AP is poised for further correction in the short term as the rate of change is still declining. Uptrend might resume from late this week to early next week.
DMC is poised for a correction in the short term as suggested by declining rate of change.
Out of the five stocks I put on my watch list, two of them opened strongly, namely AGI and URC as both gave off a buy signal on the weekly charts. Despite of not opening strongly today, the other three - AT, PX, and PNB also gave a buy signal on their weekly charts, suggesting a buy this week. I'm all tied up with AP and DMC already so I'll just be watching all issues to confirm my ideas. One thing I am uncomfortable with is PX candlestick which is seem to be forming a falling method.
AEV also gave a buy signal today on the weekly chart while AP gave a sell signal in the weekly chart. Besides that, there's nothing much to worry about the Aboitiz stocks. AEV has also a inverted hammer candlestick on its chart so it might advance ahead of AP in the short term.
AP is currently up by 3.07% in eight trading days. Doubled my position in AP.
DMC is currently up by 7.04% in five trading days.
AP 70%
DMC 17%
Cash 13%
*Sitting tight for the mean time. I am thinking of holding either of them till December to reduce stress when trading. I would probably use the remaining 13% or less for swing trading just to cure the itch when watching the ticker or for speculative/high risk stock positions. I think I had my fair share of roller coaster ride in the stock market already. Anyway, hopefully by year end, I have doubled my capital so I'll have a better room for elbow next year! Gotta squeeze everything that we can get out of this bull market!!!
Watchlist!
Stocks to look out for if they open strongly today!
ALLIANCE GLOBAL GROUP, INC. (AGI)
ATLAS CONSOLIDATED MINING (AT)
PHILIPPINE NATIONAL BANK (PNB)
PHILEX MINING CORPORATION (PX)
UNIVERSAL ROBRINA CORPORATION (URC)
And the Aboitiz stocks too - AP and AEV!
Everything is purely on technical basis~
*UPDATE!
Last week, I decided to look on to several stocks for possible trades. The basic requirement for them to be a buy is for them to open strongly. Let's see how did they fare this past week:
AGI: Fulfilled the requirement to open strongly on the opening of the market. However, it would seem that it did not sustain its strength to further advance through out the week, and it only formed short days(candles).
Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the coming week or two.
AT: Despite of the increasing rate of change, its price barely moved. Therefore it did not fulfill the basic requirement for a buy.
However, the divergence in price and rate of change suggests bullish behavior so it could possibly spike up by next week - opposite of bearish divergence in price and rate of change which often results to relatively lengthy corrective consolidation.
(Just an observation).
Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the short term.
PNB: Opened relatively weak on the start of the week which is directly the opposite of the buying condition. However, advanced fairly well which have led to either a whipsaw or not being able to ride the boat.
It is now looking to break its previous high of 73.50.
Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the short term.
PX: Opened relatively well this week and was able to sustain it until last Friday as it met strong selling pressure at 15(gap - resistance; 61.80% Fibonacci retracement).
Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the short term.
URC: Opened very strong this week although it wasn't able to sustain its initial strong opening.
Weekly rate of change remained flat because of the inability to sustain its daily gains. Its price movement on Monday will decide its own direction in the short term.
It is to be noted that four out of the five stocks in the list have a confirming buy signal on the daily and weekly chart: AGI, AT, PNB, and PX while URC remained neutral.
*Short term: 1-2 weeks.
ALLIANCE GLOBAL GROUP, INC. (AGI)
ATLAS CONSOLIDATED MINING (AT)
PHILIPPINE NATIONAL BANK (PNB)
PHILEX MINING CORPORATION (PX)
UNIVERSAL ROBRINA CORPORATION (URC)
And the Aboitiz stocks too - AP and AEV!
Everything is purely on technical basis~
*UPDATE!
Last week, I decided to look on to several stocks for possible trades. The basic requirement for them to be a buy is for them to open strongly. Let's see how did they fare this past week:
AGI: Fulfilled the requirement to open strongly on the opening of the market. However, it would seem that it did not sustain its strength to further advance through out the week, and it only formed short days(candles).
Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the coming week or two.
AT: Despite of the increasing rate of change, its price barely moved. Therefore it did not fulfill the basic requirement for a buy.
However, the divergence in price and rate of change suggests bullish behavior so it could possibly spike up by next week - opposite of bearish divergence in price and rate of change which often results to relatively lengthy corrective consolidation.
(Just an observation).
Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the short term.
PNB: Opened relatively weak on the start of the week which is directly the opposite of the buying condition. However, advanced fairly well which have led to either a whipsaw or not being able to ride the boat.
It is now looking to break its previous high of 73.50.
Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the short term.
PX: Opened relatively well this week and was able to sustain it until last Friday as it met strong selling pressure at 15(gap - resistance; 61.80% Fibonacci retracement).
Weekly rate of change just started to gain strength suggesting further advances in price in the short term.
URC: Opened very strong this week although it wasn't able to sustain its initial strong opening.
Weekly rate of change remained flat because of the inability to sustain its daily gains. Its price movement on Monday will decide its own direction in the short term.
It is to be noted that four out of the five stocks in the list have a confirming buy signal on the daily and weekly chart: AGI, AT, PNB, and PX while URC remained neutral.
*Short term: 1-2 weeks.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPI)
6-Month Daily Chart
Looks like MPI has finally broke out of its resistance at 4 today, as it broke out of its ascending triangle pattern that formed this past 3 weeks. Immediate target of the said pattern is pointing at 4.42. Expect correction in the short term - 1 week worst case for those waiting for the correction.
I am now expecting it to fill its gap down from 4.70 in the intermediate term.
Looks like MPI has finally broke out of its resistance at 4 today, as it broke out of its ascending triangle pattern that formed this past 3 weeks. Immediate target of the said pattern is pointing at 4.42. Expect correction in the short term - 1 week worst case for those waiting for the correction.
I am now expecting it to fill its gap down from 4.70 in the intermediate term.
Personal Disclosure
The market closed slightly higher by 8 points as it continued to move sideways. Hopefully, we breakout of this sideways movement when third quarter earnings reports come out by early November. Technicals still haven't changed so don't expect much from the market.
AP continued to decline today losing 1.44% closing at 27.45. I am expecting it to decline further on Tuesday's session. If it does decline, it should provide a buying window.
DMC looks like its momentum has slowed down, gaining 2.28% today with relatively low volume. Technicals are still not showing any signs of weakness so there could still be more room to the upside.
The "laggard" companies from COL's briefing are one of the best performers in today's session as AGI played catch up, gaining a total of 4.42% after the briefing, closing at 11.34. MPI gained a hefty 4.38% today closing at 4.29 also breaking out of its ascending triangle pattern, gaining a total of 6.87%. DMC gained a total of 6.32% while ICT gained a total of 3.47% closing at 43. Looks like DMC is the fastest horse among them. Let's see how they perform next week!
Finally finished my back-testing on the first part of my trading system. Looks like I still need to refine it further as it only performed 70% during bull market. One thing I observe about it seem like susceptible to whipsaws so I need to add another filter to minimize whipsaws.
AP is currently up by 5.09% in seven trading days.
DMC is currently up by 5.25% in four trading days.
*Earnings report where are you~
AP continued to decline today losing 1.44% closing at 27.45. I am expecting it to decline further on Tuesday's session. If it does decline, it should provide a buying window.
DMC looks like its momentum has slowed down, gaining 2.28% today with relatively low volume. Technicals are still not showing any signs of weakness so there could still be more room to the upside.
The "laggard" companies from COL's briefing are one of the best performers in today's session as AGI played catch up, gaining a total of 4.42% after the briefing, closing at 11.34. MPI gained a hefty 4.38% today closing at 4.29 also breaking out of its ascending triangle pattern, gaining a total of 6.87%. DMC gained a total of 6.32% while ICT gained a total of 3.47% closing at 43. Looks like DMC is the fastest horse among them. Let's see how they perform next week!
Finally finished my back-testing on the first part of my trading system. Looks like I still need to refine it further as it only performed 70% during bull market. One thing I observe about it seem like susceptible to whipsaws so I need to add another filter to minimize whipsaws.
AP is currently up by 5.09% in seven trading days.
DMC is currently up by 5.25% in four trading days.
*Earnings report where are you~
Thursday, October 28, 2010
The Replacements
Consunji-led DMCI Holdings, Inc. (DMC), Lopez-led First Gen Corp. (FGEN) and Gokongwei-led JG Summit Holdings, Inc. (JGS) are going to take the places of San Miguel Corp. (SMC), GMA Network, Inc. (GMA7), and Security Bank Corp (SECB) in the index.
Full story here: http://bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=20235
Full story here: http://bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=20235
Personal Disclosure
The market closed 24.38 points lower from yesterday, confirming the further sideways movement in the short term and has also been pointed out of the loss of momentum reflected by the index' MACD and declining rate of change.
The declining rate of change and momentum confirms the further sideways movement in the short term.
No news is bad news.
AP declined for the second day by a total of 20 centavos. Declining rate of change and momentum suggests further correction/consolidation in the short term.
It seems that I was wrong in reading the price movement of DMC as it advanced further today by 4.04%. Rate of change is half-way through from it's previous peak so this current price movement may last by a day or two before heading for correction/consolidation.
One thing that should be a matter of concern in the short term is the divergence of price advances from volume.
I'll still be holding both till they reach my targets. Hopefully, targets are hit by the time the third quarter earnings report comes out.
Couldn't post much as I have been manually "back-testing" my fine-tuned trading system. I was almost done with the first part(bear market) when I suddenly realized that there was an error on the beginning of the testing so I have to re-do everything again. /epicfail
Companies that had their presentation yesterday at Resort World, Riding with the Bulls courtesy of Citiseconline, performed well today as DMC is up by 4.04%, ICT is up by 2.05% and MPI is up by 2.49%. However, AGI remained flat in today's session which I find somewhat ironic as they own Resort World.
AP is currently up by 6.62% in six trading days.
DMC is currently up by 2.91% in three trading days.
*Hold the winning positions as long as possible, keeping trailing stops active.
*Buy what is showing strength.
The declining rate of change and momentum confirms the further sideways movement in the short term.
No news is bad news.
AP declined for the second day by a total of 20 centavos. Declining rate of change and momentum suggests further correction/consolidation in the short term.
It seems that I was wrong in reading the price movement of DMC as it advanced further today by 4.04%. Rate of change is half-way through from it's previous peak so this current price movement may last by a day or two before heading for correction/consolidation.
One thing that should be a matter of concern in the short term is the divergence of price advances from volume.
I'll still be holding both till they reach my targets. Hopefully, targets are hit by the time the third quarter earnings report comes out.
Couldn't post much as I have been manually "back-testing" my fine-tuned trading system. I was almost done with the first part(bear market) when I suddenly realized that there was an error on the beginning of the testing so I have to re-do everything again. /epicfail
Companies that had their presentation yesterday at Resort World, Riding with the Bulls courtesy of Citiseconline, performed well today as DMC is up by 4.04%, ICT is up by 2.05% and MPI is up by 2.49%. However, AGI remained flat in today's session which I find somewhat ironic as they own Resort World.
AP is currently up by 6.62% in six trading days.
DMC is currently up by 2.91% in three trading days.
*Hold the winning positions as long as possible, keeping trailing stops active.
*Buy what is showing strength.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market closed slightly lower from Friday's session by 7 points (0.17%). If there would be no positive follow through tomorrow, I am expecting the market to continue moving sideways and looking to buy at 4146 levels.
AP still closed higher by 0.18% but the selling was pretty obvious today. Still having divergence in momentum and rate of change suggesting consolidation in the short term.
DMC advanced further today gaining 1.84%. However, weakening momentum and declining rate of change are now suggesting that the price is currently at its peak.
I was second guessing my decision in buying AP before as I might have seen what I wanted to see. It seems like I was not and AP moved considerably in my direction. Same case with DMC. However, it looks like I took the position relatively late as it seem to be trading at the top of its trading channel and still moving sideways.
Anyway, I'll be holding both of them for the meantime till they reach my personal targets.
AP is now up by 7.39% in five days.
DMC is now up by 1.84% in one day.
AP still closed higher by 0.18% but the selling was pretty obvious today. Still having divergence in momentum and rate of change suggesting consolidation in the short term.
DMC advanced further today gaining 1.84%. However, weakening momentum and declining rate of change are now suggesting that the price is currently at its peak.
I was second guessing my decision in buying AP before as I might have seen what I wanted to see. It seems like I was not and AP moved considerably in my direction. Same case with DMC. However, it looks like I took the position relatively late as it seem to be trading at the top of its trading channel and still moving sideways.
Anyway, I'll be holding both of them for the meantime till they reach my personal targets.
AP is now up by 7.39% in five days.
DMC is now up by 1.84% in one day.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Long weekend is long.
The market has finally broke the resistance at 4250 after moving sideways this past week. If it is not a false breakout, 4350 is very possible in the short term. However, if it is a false breakout, look into buying within 4146 levels.
AP continued to advance last session gaining 3.90%, closing at 28. Looks like the gap is going to be filled as momentum is relatively top-ish with declining rate of change. Or it might consolidate for a few days before heading back up. Weekly chart is still pointing up so any weakness in the daily chart should provide buying opportunities with minimal risk.
AGI is poised to head up as suggested by the increasing rate of change and momentum. However, there seems to be a strong selling when it reaches 11.18 levels.
DMC advanced last Friday gaining 5.37% closing at 35.30 and it is still poised to head up further as the rate of change just started to point up. Price movement has also satisfied the buying condition.
MEG continued to consolidate last Friday, barely moved at 2.55 levels after breaking out of its symmetrical triangle formation. Immediate target at 2.90 once it resume its uptrend.
The candlestick of PX last Wednesday was confirmed as a hammer last Friday as it seem to reverse its current price movement in the short term.
AT continued to advance last Friday and it seems like it will have a continuation of its advance up to early this week.
Busy weekend so I didn't get the chance to edit and post charts of previous trades.
I sold AGI last Friday for 1% commission loss after holding it for the eight days and I bought DMC with the proceeds as my buying condition for it was satisfied, plus it looks better than AGI last Friday.
Bought DMC at 35.30, closed at 35.30.
AP is now up by 7.20% in 4 days.
*I increased my position in AP last Wednesday, buying at 25.60 and 25.85 not to average down - after buying at 26.60 - but it simply showed a trade setup.
AP continued to advance last session gaining 3.90%, closing at 28. Looks like the gap is going to be filled as momentum is relatively top-ish with declining rate of change. Or it might consolidate for a few days before heading back up. Weekly chart is still pointing up so any weakness in the daily chart should provide buying opportunities with minimal risk.
AGI is poised to head up as suggested by the increasing rate of change and momentum. However, there seems to be a strong selling when it reaches 11.18 levels.
DMC advanced last Friday gaining 5.37% closing at 35.30 and it is still poised to head up further as the rate of change just started to point up. Price movement has also satisfied the buying condition.
MEG continued to consolidate last Friday, barely moved at 2.55 levels after breaking out of its symmetrical triangle formation. Immediate target at 2.90 once it resume its uptrend.
The candlestick of PX last Wednesday was confirmed as a hammer last Friday as it seem to reverse its current price movement in the short term.
AT continued to advance last Friday and it seems like it will have a continuation of its advance up to early this week.
Busy weekend so I didn't get the chance to edit and post charts of previous trades.
I sold AGI last Friday for 1% commission loss after holding it for the eight days and I bought DMC with the proceeds as my buying condition for it was satisfied, plus it looks better than AGI last Friday.
Bought DMC at 35.30, closed at 35.30.
AP is now up by 7.20% in 4 days.
*I increased my position in AP last Wednesday, buying at 25.60 and 25.85 not to average down - after buying at 26.60 - but it simply showed a trade setup.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market gained 57.21 points at 4249.17 today, 1.28% higher from yesterday's closing, continuing to move sideways with a support at 4146 and resistance at 4250. Momentum and rate of change are now both pointing up and confirming each other, suggesting that there would be further advance in the short term. If both indicators confirm each other on the weekly charts by next week, the resumption of the uptrend would probably come earlier than I expected.
Top gainers for today are MER, AEV, AP and SMPH while top losers are mostly comprised by third liners.
AGI opened strongly at 11 before it was sold down by MACQUARIE and CLSA, closing at 10.86. Momentum-Rate of change reading right on the money. Today's reading is relatively different as momentum has started to gain strength while rate of change declined further. Resumption of the uptrend would be late this week to early next week.
AP continued to advance further today, gaining 3.65% today closing at 26.95, made a gap up from yesterday's closing. If the gap doesn't get filled tomorrow, immediate target would be at 28.80. Momentum and rate of change are still both pointing up suggesting further advance in the short term and both are still less than half-way from their previous peaks.
MEG would seem to consolidate further in the short term as momentum and rate of change are diverging from each other. Pull backs to 2.40 should provide a good entry. Target would be around 2.90 once it starts to advance (symmetrical triangle target).
DMC did continued to consolidate today. However, despite the diverging momentum and rate of change, it appears to me that it is ready to resume its uptrend as the momentum is starting to gather strength. Buy if price crosses over the 10SMA.
Still confused with PX as the latest candlestick doesn't seen to be confirmed much.
Lost my bet on AT as it advanced further in today's session. It would be safe to assume that it would advance further until next week as both momentum and rate of change are pointing up.
On the other hand, looks like I am right on ORE. Both momentum and rate of change just started to point down (from the peak) suggesting further decline in the short term.
I'll be posting charts of my previous trades later.
AGI is still sitting on commission/tax loss for seven trading days.
AP is now up by 3.18% in 3 days.
*In a relatively choppy market, buy what's showing strength.
Top gainers for today are MER, AEV, AP and SMPH while top losers are mostly comprised by third liners.
AGI opened strongly at 11 before it was sold down by MACQUARIE and CLSA, closing at 10.86. Momentum-Rate of change reading right on the money. Today's reading is relatively different as momentum has started to gain strength while rate of change declined further. Resumption of the uptrend would be late this week to early next week.
AP continued to advance further today, gaining 3.65% today closing at 26.95, made a gap up from yesterday's closing. If the gap doesn't get filled tomorrow, immediate target would be at 28.80. Momentum and rate of change are still both pointing up suggesting further advance in the short term and both are still less than half-way from their previous peaks.
MEG would seem to consolidate further in the short term as momentum and rate of change are diverging from each other. Pull backs to 2.40 should provide a good entry. Target would be around 2.90 once it starts to advance (symmetrical triangle target).
DMC did continued to consolidate today. However, despite the diverging momentum and rate of change, it appears to me that it is ready to resume its uptrend as the momentum is starting to gather strength. Buy if price crosses over the 10SMA.
Still confused with PX as the latest candlestick doesn't seen to be confirmed much.
Lost my bet on AT as it advanced further in today's session. It would be safe to assume that it would advance further until next week as both momentum and rate of change are pointing up.
On the other hand, looks like I am right on ORE. Both momentum and rate of change just started to point down (from the peak) suggesting further decline in the short term.
I'll be posting charts of my previous trades later.
AGI is still sitting on commission/tax loss for seven trading days.
AP is now up by 3.18% in 3 days.
*In a relatively choppy market, buy what's showing strength.
Midnight Express
Market closed relatively flat in yesterday's session, dropping 43 points intraday before closing at 4191.96, slightly lower by 0.71 points only. Gainers are mostly comprised by third liners with AT and AEV as an exception while major losers yesterday are third liners too.
Looking at the charts, the index seems to be half way through consolidation, just in time for the third quarter company reports.
AGI seems like its about to resume its uptrend already, but momentum and rate of change are still pointing down so it might still decline tomorrow. However, if it does starts to advance again, tomorrow would be the earliest and early next week would be the worst.
AP bounced off today from support closing by 1.56% higher yesterday. Momentum and rate of change are pointing up already suggesting advances in the short term. Latest candlestick formation also suggests the same. However, I am second guessing my decision as I might have simply saw what I wanted to saw on the charts. Verdict tomorrow!
Looks like I am wrong on assuming buying on breakout on MEG as it opened and closed lower yesterday forming a bearish candlestick. Should the proper play for breakouts is sell the first breakout and buy the second one? 2.40 level is looking to be the next support.
DMC seemed to consolidate further yesterday as it is also being pointed out by momentum diverging from rate of change.
PX recovered today and bounced off its next immediate support at 12.90. However, I am still doubting the candlestick that it formed yesterday as I am unsure if it is a on-neck pattern or a hammer pattern. Only one way to find out, watch its price movement until the end of the week!
I am betting on two to three days consolidation in AT following its advance yesterday, basing it from its previous behavior. Let's see how it'd go.
ORE is one interesting issue. Die hard fans of this stock are jumping out of joy yesterday as it was one of the most active stocks with 3.98% gain. However, is this a reason to be jumping for joy?
Technically speaking, momentum and rate of change are relatively the same with its previous peaks suggesting price decline in the short term. But knowing that it is a jockeyed stock, I hardly doubt that my analysis would be right.
Anyway, I would be try to post a chart of this one since I profited around 30% from ORE before within two weeks.
AGI is sitting on 2.5% net paper loss (commission/tax).
Break-even at 11.15.
Six trading days.
AP is sitting on 0.46% net loss.
Two trading days.
*Sell on the first breakout (of range) and then buy the second break out.
Looking at the charts, the index seems to be half way through consolidation, just in time for the third quarter company reports.
AGI seems like its about to resume its uptrend already, but momentum and rate of change are still pointing down so it might still decline tomorrow. However, if it does starts to advance again, tomorrow would be the earliest and early next week would be the worst.
AP bounced off today from support closing by 1.56% higher yesterday. Momentum and rate of change are pointing up already suggesting advances in the short term. Latest candlestick formation also suggests the same. However, I am second guessing my decision as I might have simply saw what I wanted to saw on the charts. Verdict tomorrow!
Looks like I am wrong on assuming buying on breakout on MEG as it opened and closed lower yesterday forming a bearish candlestick. Should the proper play for breakouts is sell the first breakout and buy the second one? 2.40 level is looking to be the next support.
DMC seemed to consolidate further yesterday as it is also being pointed out by momentum diverging from rate of change.
PX recovered today and bounced off its next immediate support at 12.90. However, I am still doubting the candlestick that it formed yesterday as I am unsure if it is a on-neck pattern or a hammer pattern. Only one way to find out, watch its price movement until the end of the week!
I am betting on two to three days consolidation in AT following its advance yesterday, basing it from its previous behavior. Let's see how it'd go.
ORE is one interesting issue. Die hard fans of this stock are jumping out of joy yesterday as it was one of the most active stocks with 3.98% gain. However, is this a reason to be jumping for joy?
Technically speaking, momentum and rate of change are relatively the same with its previous peaks suggesting price decline in the short term. But knowing that it is a jockeyed stock, I hardly doubt that my analysis would be right.
Anyway, I would be try to post a chart of this one since I profited around 30% from ORE before within two weeks.
AGI is sitting on 2.5% net paper loss (commission/tax).
Break-even at 11.15.
Six trading days.
AP is sitting on 0.46% net loss.
Two trading days.
*Sell on the first breakout (of range) and then buy the second break out.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market declined further in today's session losing 23.86 points, closing at 4191.25. Major index gainer today is MEG while major index losers came from the mining sector comprising of LC, LCB, MAB, and PX.
AGI seemed to have found support at current levels. However, both momentum and rate of change are still pointing to further decline in the short term. Weekly chart looks like its half-way through its decline so am expecting it to resume its uptrend late this week or by early next week.
ATR and JPMorgan seems to be accumulating as they are net buyers today with 31M and 1.9M (volume) respectively.
I forgot to post my analysis for MEG if it breaks out of trading range yesterday. It should have been buy on break out of the resistance at 2.55. Anyway, I still missed today's buy on break out for MEG as I left 30 minutes before the market's closing. Any pullbacks near 2.55 levels should provide opportunity to buy with a target of 2.90 from the the symmetrical triangle that it formed on the daily charts.
Major foreign buyer today is MACQUARIE amounting to 21.65M (vol).
Rate of change and momentum are both pointing up suggesting further advance in the short term. MACD is already pointing up and the fast line has crossed above the slow line confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
This is frustrating since I have a position in MEG in COL's virtual tycoon. /sadpanda
AP continued to decline further in today's session, losing 1.92% closing at 25.60. Momentum and rate of change are still both pointing down suggesting further decline in the short term. Declines up to 24.50 should provide buying opportunities with minimal risk.
Major buyers today are MACQUARIE, PEP, and DEUTSCHE.
DMC continued its corrective consolidation today losing only by 0.89%. Momentum and rate of change are diverging from each other suggesting further consolidation in the short term.
Major buyers today are DBP-DAIWA and JPMorgan.
PX broke down today from its support at 14 by more than 3% suggesting further decline in the medium term. Momemtum, rate of change and MACD are all pointing down suggesting the idea of further decline.
Next support at 12.76-12.90 levels.
Looks like I was right about MBT. Too bad I didn't get the "OK" signal to buy it. The only stocks that I have the "OK" sign to buy are: AP, AGI, MEG and DMC.
My position in AGI is still on commision/paper loss.
AGI seemed to have found support at current levels. However, both momentum and rate of change are still pointing to further decline in the short term. Weekly chart looks like its half-way through its decline so am expecting it to resume its uptrend late this week or by early next week.
ATR and JPMorgan seems to be accumulating as they are net buyers today with 31M and 1.9M (volume) respectively.
I forgot to post my analysis for MEG if it breaks out of trading range yesterday. It should have been buy on break out of the resistance at 2.55. Anyway, I still missed today's buy on break out for MEG as I left 30 minutes before the market's closing. Any pullbacks near 2.55 levels should provide opportunity to buy with a target of 2.90 from the the symmetrical triangle that it formed on the daily charts.
Major foreign buyer today is MACQUARIE amounting to 21.65M (vol).
Rate of change and momentum are both pointing up suggesting further advance in the short term. MACD is already pointing up and the fast line has crossed above the slow line confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
This is frustrating since I have a position in MEG in COL's virtual tycoon. /sadpanda
AP continued to decline further in today's session, losing 1.92% closing at 25.60. Momentum and rate of change are still both pointing down suggesting further decline in the short term. Declines up to 24.50 should provide buying opportunities with minimal risk.
Major buyers today are MACQUARIE, PEP, and DEUTSCHE.
DMC continued its corrective consolidation today losing only by 0.89%. Momentum and rate of change are diverging from each other suggesting further consolidation in the short term.
Major buyers today are DBP-DAIWA and JPMorgan.
PX broke down today from its support at 14 by more than 3% suggesting further decline in the medium term. Momemtum, rate of change and MACD are all pointing down suggesting the idea of further decline.
Next support at 12.76-12.90 levels.
Looks like I was right about MBT. Too bad I didn't get the "OK" signal to buy it. The only stocks that I have the "OK" sign to buy are: AP, AGI, MEG and DMC.
My position in AGI is still on commision/paper loss.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market continued to move sideways today, closing lower by 1.24 points. ALI was sold down today again down to 16 before recovering back and closing at 17.30. I now have the notion of buying ALI immediately once it drops by more than 5% for quick money.
AGI continued to decline today, losing by 5 centavos or 0.54%. Rate of change and momentum is still diverging from each other so I am inclined to believe it will continue to decline/consolidate in the short term. Its weekly charts looks like its half-way through its decline so am expecting it to resume its advances late this week or by early next week.
MEG met resistance from its previous high of 2.55 (tweezer top) and started to decline at that point. A bounce from 2.35-2.40 (gap) levels should provide a good entry if it is to resume its uptrend. A bounce from that level would also confirm the symmetrical triangle pattern that formed in its daily chart with a target of 2.90.
However, if it declines further beyond that point, expect a strong support at 2.20 levels and continue to trade the range. Furthermore, if it declines further beyond the 2.35-2.40 (gap) level, the symmetrical triangle pattern would be rendered void and would be replaced by an ascending triangle pattern, with a target of 2.80.
On the other hand, FLI moved sideways with a tighter range from 1.32 to 1.40. A possible symmetrical triangle pattern might also be forming on the charts.
PX dropped by 0.56% today. It is definitely forming a descending triangle pattern. However, as much as I don't like seeing spinning tops on the top of trading ranges as they usually signifies movement reversal in the short term, I pretty much welcome its appearance on the bottom of trading ranges. With a bounce from its current support of 14 should provide a good entry with a tight stop loss right below, with immediate resistance at 15. Breaking above 15 would suggest the end of the short term down trend and it would be resuming its uptrend.
However, if it does break its support at 14, expect immediate support at 12.76-12.90 levels.
I won't be watching RFM for the meantime or until it breaks its resistance at 2 and/or once it gains 10M daily turnover on up-days. Weekly charts seems to be forming rising three method (candlestick pattern) which seems to be pointing at 1.70 level as possible support.
AP started to decline today, losing by 0.76% closing at 26.10. Both momentum and rate of change are pointing down so it seems like it would be declining further in the short term. Pullbacks and rebounds from 24.67 to 25.27 should provide good entry points. Weekly charts are looking relatively weak so I am not expecting it to rebound up til early next week (at best).
DMC would seem to be consolidating in the short term. A bounce from 31-32 levels should provide good entry.
The selling of MBT looks like it was overdone/overly bearish for me. Buy if it advances tomorrow with immediate resistance at 71.92 up to 72.96.
My current position in AGI is still the same; sitting on half of commission/paper loss.
AGI continued to decline today, losing by 5 centavos or 0.54%. Rate of change and momentum is still diverging from each other so I am inclined to believe it will continue to decline/consolidate in the short term. Its weekly charts looks like its half-way through its decline so am expecting it to resume its advances late this week or by early next week.
MEG met resistance from its previous high of 2.55 (tweezer top) and started to decline at that point. A bounce from 2.35-2.40 (gap) levels should provide a good entry if it is to resume its uptrend. A bounce from that level would also confirm the symmetrical triangle pattern that formed in its daily chart with a target of 2.90.
However, if it declines further beyond that point, expect a strong support at 2.20 levels and continue to trade the range. Furthermore, if it declines further beyond the 2.35-2.40 (gap) level, the symmetrical triangle pattern would be rendered void and would be replaced by an ascending triangle pattern, with a target of 2.80.
On the other hand, FLI moved sideways with a tighter range from 1.32 to 1.40. A possible symmetrical triangle pattern might also be forming on the charts.
PX dropped by 0.56% today. It is definitely forming a descending triangle pattern. However, as much as I don't like seeing spinning tops on the top of trading ranges as they usually signifies movement reversal in the short term, I pretty much welcome its appearance on the bottom of trading ranges. With a bounce from its current support of 14 should provide a good entry with a tight stop loss right below, with immediate resistance at 15. Breaking above 15 would suggest the end of the short term down trend and it would be resuming its uptrend.
However, if it does break its support at 14, expect immediate support at 12.76-12.90 levels.
I won't be watching RFM for the meantime or until it breaks its resistance at 2 and/or once it gains 10M daily turnover on up-days. Weekly charts seems to be forming rising three method (candlestick pattern) which seems to be pointing at 1.70 level as possible support.
AP started to decline today, losing by 0.76% closing at 26.10. Both momentum and rate of change are pointing down so it seems like it would be declining further in the short term. Pullbacks and rebounds from 24.67 to 25.27 should provide good entry points. Weekly charts are looking relatively weak so I am not expecting it to rebound up til early next week (at best).
DMC would seem to be consolidating in the short term. A bounce from 31-32 levels should provide good entry.
The selling of MBT looks like it was overdone/overly bearish for me. Buy if it advances tomorrow with immediate resistance at 71.92 up to 72.96.
My current position in AGI is still the same; sitting on half of commission/paper loss.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market simply moved sideways this week as it closed 17 points - 0.40% lower from yesterday's session, closing at 4216.35. This market behavior would probably last till the next earning reports come in. No news is bad news.
AGI fell by 1.43% in the previous session, closing at 11.02 leaving my position virtually unchanged when I bought it. Divergence in rate of change and momentum is suggesting further corrective consolidation in the short term. Weekly charts is definitely pointing down now.
Of all the property stocks that I've been watching, MEG seems to be the one that showed greater strength among the three. Although it seems like it has peaked already at 2.50. Any rebounds from the support at 2.20 should be bought. Weekly charts also gave a buy signal so any weakness in the daily charts should provide a good buying opportunity. Breaking the previous high at 2.55 would be possible as soon as the MACD starts pointing up.
Not the same case with ALI as selling started to surface at the 18 levels. Bounces from 16.70 levels should provide buying windows with a tight stop right below it. Avoid if it breaks the 16.70 support levels.
FLI behaved like ALI although not as bad. Rebounds from 1.32 support levels should provide buying windows with a tight stop loss right below the entry point.
Avoid if breaks the 1.32 support levels.
PX is make or break at 14. Divergence in momentum and rate of change is suggesting consolidation though.
RFM closed unchanged yesterday. There was a slight loss of momentum although both indicators are still pointing up so the possibility of advancing and retesting the resistance at 2 is possible.
I missed the AP boat! /sadface
DMC is probably the only one I can ride with now for the mean time.
AGI fell by 1.43% in the previous session, closing at 11.02 leaving my position virtually unchanged when I bought it. Divergence in rate of change and momentum is suggesting further corrective consolidation in the short term. Weekly charts is definitely pointing down now.
Of all the property stocks that I've been watching, MEG seems to be the one that showed greater strength among the three. Although it seems like it has peaked already at 2.50. Any rebounds from the support at 2.20 should be bought. Weekly charts also gave a buy signal so any weakness in the daily charts should provide a good buying opportunity. Breaking the previous high at 2.55 would be possible as soon as the MACD starts pointing up.
Not the same case with ALI as selling started to surface at the 18 levels. Bounces from 16.70 levels should provide buying windows with a tight stop right below it. Avoid if it breaks the 16.70 support levels.
FLI behaved like ALI although not as bad. Rebounds from 1.32 support levels should provide buying windows with a tight stop loss right below the entry point.
Avoid if breaks the 1.32 support levels.
PX is make or break at 14. Divergence in momentum and rate of change is suggesting consolidation though.
RFM closed unchanged yesterday. There was a slight loss of momentum although both indicators are still pointing up so the possibility of advancing and retesting the resistance at 2 is possible.
I missed the AP boat! /sadface
DMC is probably the only one I can ride with now for the mean time.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Personal Disclosure
The market opened 20 points lower today before gaining 27 points at the end of the session.
AGI gained another 3% today, half-way through my break-even point! Momentum and rate of change is still diverging from each other suggesting consolidation in the short term. Weekly chart is manifesting relative weakness suggesting selling on rallies although it might change if the stock finishes up strongly this week. Pull backs to 10 levels should provide nice buying windows.
RFM, PX, MEG, and ALI also rebounded strongly today.
ALI found solid support on 50-MA. Today could have been the best buying window for this stock, with immediate resistance at 18.42 levels. Very nice candidate for range trading. I am not expecting it to break its previous high at 18.70 in the short term as the MACD reading is still pointing down.
MEG bounced off strongly from its support at 2.20 levels, gaining 4% today. Momentum and rate of change have began to point up suggesting advances in the short term, with immediate resistance at 2.43. Breaking of the immediate resistance would suggest that the uptrend would resume. I highly doubt it though as MACD reading is still pointing down so I am more inclined to range trade at best.
Another property stock that caught my attention today while scanning charts is FLI. It formed a very bullish candlestick pattern today - Piercing pattern. Chances of this stock advancing tomorrow is very high with immediate resistance at 1.45. MACD is still pointing down so it would be range trading at best in the short term.
I am seeing a symmetrical triangle formation in PX. Today would have been the best time to buy it too and/or as close to 14 as possible with a very tight stop loss below 14. Bands are relatively flat so the possibility of range-trading is also there with immediate resistance at 16.
RFM is struggling at its current support - 1.79 - as both 10 and 50 SMAs are pointing out. RFM is behaving exactly as I've been expecting! Too bad most my funds are still frozen! Chances of breaking the resistance at 2 now is relatively high as MACD just crossed over the zero line. /sadface
It looks like I can ride AP once it resumes its advance next week though!
Rebound at 32 levels for DMC should warrant a buy signal.
Can't wait for my COL account to be activated hehe.
AGI gained another 3% today, half-way through my break-even point! Momentum and rate of change is still diverging from each other suggesting consolidation in the short term. Weekly chart is manifesting relative weakness suggesting selling on rallies although it might change if the stock finishes up strongly this week. Pull backs to 10 levels should provide nice buying windows.
RFM, PX, MEG, and ALI also rebounded strongly today.
ALI found solid support on 50-MA. Today could have been the best buying window for this stock, with immediate resistance at 18.42 levels. Very nice candidate for range trading. I am not expecting it to break its previous high at 18.70 in the short term as the MACD reading is still pointing down.
MEG bounced off strongly from its support at 2.20 levels, gaining 4% today. Momentum and rate of change have began to point up suggesting advances in the short term, with immediate resistance at 2.43. Breaking of the immediate resistance would suggest that the uptrend would resume. I highly doubt it though as MACD reading is still pointing down so I am more inclined to range trade at best.
Another property stock that caught my attention today while scanning charts is FLI. It formed a very bullish candlestick pattern today - Piercing pattern. Chances of this stock advancing tomorrow is very high with immediate resistance at 1.45. MACD is still pointing down so it would be range trading at best in the short term.
I am seeing a symmetrical triangle formation in PX. Today would have been the best time to buy it too and/or as close to 14 as possible with a very tight stop loss below 14. Bands are relatively flat so the possibility of range-trading is also there with immediate resistance at 16.
RFM is struggling at its current support - 1.79 - as both 10 and 50 SMAs are pointing out. RFM is behaving exactly as I've been expecting! Too bad most my funds are still frozen! Chances of breaking the resistance at 2 now is relatively high as MACD just crossed over the zero line. /sadface
It looks like I can ride AP once it resumes its advance next week though!
Rebound at 32 levels for DMC should warrant a buy signal.
Can't wait for my COL account to be activated hehe.