Saturday, February 19, 2011
Friday, February 18, 2011
Time to test the grounds.
The market suffered again its morning sickness again, gaining 25 points on the opening before losing ground to profit takers and AFP pulling funds(kidding), closing lower by 15 points at 3851. If the recent low at 3723 holds, the index might consolidate(better) for a while before reversing. If it does not, then downtrend is still not over.
Again, as one could expect during declines, leading gainers for today are mostly speculative third liners, led by PRC +16.36%, OPM +7.69, ABA +4.60%, MARC +4.50%, SINO +4.35% and T +4.10%.
The only blue chip with relative value turnover is MER, gaining 3.03% for today.
Index losers is led by AP -2.08%, BDO -1.54%, DMC -1.16% AC -0.89%, AGI-0.68%, and MBT-0.50%.
There was also a huge cross in HP at 2.50. Can this cross jumpstart price action in short term?
RFM also continued its gains from yesterday, gaining another 3.87% on relatively lower volume from yesterday. If it reaches 1.65, it might start coming back to life again. It has relatively high discount from its fair value and weekly chart looks relatively bullish.
AEV is now back to uptrend and just started its correction today after meeting its old resistance at 40. Buy on correction and/or buy on breakout. Weekly chart looks pretty good.
I can't say the same for AP though. 2.35% gain over the week vs AEV 5.41% in the same week. I also feel like its weekly chart still looks weak mainly because of its bearish candlestick pattern(falling method - continuation pattern). Still bearish with AP so I'm still keeping the hypothetical short position open.
NIKL declined by 1.72% today after being bought up by ASIASEC for the past 2 days. I think someone in BDO noticed this so I believe he's the one who put up the 1M shares or so on the closing(possibly challenging ASIASEC to buy it up again). Weekly chart is up but is now showing slight hesitation to move up.
MER looks like a buy on pull back if it reaches 250-266 before it starts to retrace. Will cover the hypothetical shorts if it does.
So there, those are basically the issues I am currently observing.
TEL looks ready for a reversal already as RSI has already flattened out. Daily RSI is also at the lowest level in 10 years. However, Weekly RSI has yet to drop below mixing the signals. Despite of the mixed signals, I am inclined to believe that its more biased towards moving up so risk is now minimal. Shares are now cheaper for dividend play plus a potential upside of 13% if it does reverse. However, TEL moves relatively slow so it is not recommended for trading.
New hypothetical position in JFC.
Again, as one could expect during declines, leading gainers for today are mostly speculative third liners, led by PRC +16.36%, OPM +7.69, ABA +4.60%, MARC +4.50%, SINO +4.35% and T +4.10%.
The only blue chip with relative value turnover is MER, gaining 3.03% for today.
Index losers is led by AP -2.08%, BDO -1.54%, DMC -1.16% AC -0.89%, AGI-0.68%, and MBT-0.50%.
There was also a huge cross in HP at 2.50. Can this cross jumpstart price action in short term?
RFM also continued its gains from yesterday, gaining another 3.87% on relatively lower volume from yesterday. If it reaches 1.65, it might start coming back to life again. It has relatively high discount from its fair value and weekly chart looks relatively bullish.
AEV is now back to uptrend and just started its correction today after meeting its old resistance at 40. Buy on correction and/or buy on breakout. Weekly chart looks pretty good.
I can't say the same for AP though. 2.35% gain over the week vs AEV 5.41% in the same week. I also feel like its weekly chart still looks weak mainly because of its bearish candlestick pattern(falling method - continuation pattern). Still bearish with AP so I'm still keeping the hypothetical short position open.
NIKL declined by 1.72% today after being bought up by ASIASEC for the past 2 days. I think someone in BDO noticed this so I believe he's the one who put up the 1M shares or so on the closing(possibly challenging ASIASEC to buy it up again). Weekly chart is up but is now showing slight hesitation to move up.
MER looks like a buy on pull back if it reaches 250-266 before it starts to retrace. Will cover the hypothetical shorts if it does.
So there, those are basically the issues I am currently observing.
TEL looks ready for a reversal already as RSI has already flattened out. Daily RSI is also at the lowest level in 10 years. However, Weekly RSI has yet to drop below mixing the signals. Despite of the mixed signals, I am inclined to believe that its more biased towards moving up so risk is now minimal. Shares are now cheaper for dividend play plus a potential upside of 13% if it does reverse. However, TEL moves relatively slow so it is not recommended for trading.
New hypothetical position in JFC.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Time for celebration?
The market gained 54 points today, closing higher by 1.43% on a slightly lower turnover value. Pretty much exciting day for the blues today.
The rally is led by ALI +4.09%, BPI +4%, JFC +3.90%, DMC +3.61%, with MBT +1.95%, AGI +1.89%, AEV +1.83%, and AP 1.58% as honorable mentions. Other gainers with considerable turnover are MAB +6.90% and RFM +6.16%.
Today's top losers are the third liners APM -5.56% and ELI -3.95% while GLO is the heaviest losing 2.99% today.
Did I see it right? Macquarie have been buying RFM heavily at the closing. ATR is also seems pretty heavy with this issue for this month. Something must be cooking. Value turnover seems anemic though.
The Aboitiz issues seem to have come back to life again. My trend buy signal yesterday on AEV seems to be valid(and working too) while AP has yet to generate any signal.
NIKL seems to be being manipulated by ASIASEC. It was a boring day -lowest turnover if only not from the cross of Deutsche - and it was already doing at 21.85 at the closing(pre-open/pre-close). When I checked it back, it was back to 22.30 with ASIASEC as the culprit. I feel like he could have just bid lower at 21.85 too. Intra-invest has been missing on the board and has stopped his selling this past few days. I wonder what has gotten into him.
Still trending with SCC.
Hypothetical short position in MER is down by 5.19%. Will cover once it retrace to 214-220 levels.
Hypothetical short position in AP is down by 6%. Will cover at 27.75-28.
The rally is led by ALI +4.09%, BPI +4%, JFC +3.90%, DMC +3.61%, with MBT +1.95%, AGI +1.89%, AEV +1.83%, and AP 1.58% as honorable mentions. Other gainers with considerable turnover are MAB +6.90% and RFM +6.16%.
Today's top losers are the third liners APM -5.56% and ELI -3.95% while GLO is the heaviest losing 2.99% today.
Did I see it right? Macquarie have been buying RFM heavily at the closing. ATR is also seems pretty heavy with this issue for this month. Something must be cooking. Value turnover seems anemic though.
The Aboitiz issues seem to have come back to life again. My trend buy signal yesterday on AEV seems to be valid(and working too) while AP has yet to generate any signal.
NIKL seems to be being manipulated by ASIASEC. It was a boring day -lowest turnover if only not from the cross of Deutsche - and it was already doing at 21.85 at the closing(pre-open/pre-close). When I checked it back, it was back to 22.30 with ASIASEC as the culprit. I feel like he could have just bid lower at 21.85 too. Intra-invest has been missing on the board and has stopped his selling this past few days. I wonder what has gotten into him.
Still trending with SCC.
Hypothetical short position in MER is down by 5.19%. Will cover once it retrace to 214-220 levels.
Hypothetical short position in AP is down by 6%. Will cover at 27.75-28.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
Too bad that I could only get historical data starting from January 1.
Volume on the chart is the volume of supply for that day (in tonnes).
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Nickel: Opening stocks(tonne) and Price - Updated daily
Opening stock(tonne) and Price:
Date-opening stock-price:
Since the peak of supply last January at 137766, supply has started to decline up to date. Supply has dropped by 5% since then, driving the price of nickel higher by 11.20%.
Supply and demand baby, Econ1. My college prof would be proud! :)
If I get lucky, I could probably make a line graph with this data in Metastock.
It's a shame though because I could only access data from the beginning of the year.
Filed under NIKL.
Date-opening stock-price:
FEBRUARY 2011
18
17 129924 28295.00
16 130248 28550.00
15 130248 28895.00
14 130422 28670.00
11 131112 27830.00
10 131898 28005.00
09 132330 28255.00
08 132936 27850.00
07 132828 28700.00
04 132798 28070.00
03 133500 27775.00
02 134172 27710.00
01 134442 27650.00
JANUARY 2011
31 134040 27070.00
28 134298 26820.00
27 135186 26795.00
26 134862 26150.00
25 134958 25750.00
24 135174 26265.00
21 130248 25850.00
20 137124 25645.00
19 137238 26190.00
18 137352 26355.00
17 137766 25985.00
14 136302 25460.00
13 136662 25720.00
12 135096 25060.00
11 135864 24590.00
10 136806 24045.00
07 136896 24340.00
06 137040 24870.00
05 136860 24640.00
04 136890 25170.00
Monthly Average: 25638.50
Since the peak of supply last January at 137766, supply has started to decline up to date. Supply has dropped by 5% since then, driving the price of nickel higher by 11.20%.
Supply and demand baby, Econ1. My college prof would be proud! :)
If I get lucky, I could probably make a line graph with this data in Metastock.
It's a shame though because I could only access data from the beginning of the year.
Filed under NIKL.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
I probably should also monitor the supply of nickel stock daily to monitor whether the supply is increasing/decreasing. Had to dig a little deeper to find the info though. Daily price update first:
CASH BUYER 28,895.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,900.00
CASH BUYER 28,895.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,900.00
Philippine Stock Exchange (PCOMP)
Looks like that the Index is poised to resume its downtrend in the short term.
Major resistance at 4000.
Aboitiz Power Corporation (AP)
It looks like that the bearish symmetrical triangle pattern has been invalidated as prices have already moved out of the apex of the triangle.
Pullbacks after testing 29.80 in the short term would probably provide a good window for entry.
Rally!
The index gained 21 points in today's session with relatively lower volume if we don't count the huge cross - again - in AEV. I think that the rally today is just another tech bounce and it would pretty much safer to expect the market to continue to drop in the short term.
Gains of FLI +4.76%, MER, +3.18%, AP +2.52%, PCOR +2.27%, AEV +1.73%, and SM +1.30% pushed the index higher today while PLDT -0.35%, and MBT -0.84% held up their grounds with relatively smaller losses in comparison to yesterday.
Other gainers with significant turnover are BEL +4.45% and DFNN +3.56%. Other losers with significant turnover today are led by JAP's ORE -5.34%, NI -4.63%, LC -2.27% and SECB -2.24% after they released their income report for the whole 2010.
Macquarie got rewarded after pushing PCOR yesterday.
It seems like BEL has formed a short term reversal pattern today with a target of 5.40 to 5.50 at most.
AEV broke above 38.50 - intraday high 38.70 - but unable to sustain its rally, closing lower from intraday high at 38.30. It would seem that it has already broke out of its sideways-to-down trend today but I am still skeptical about the break out because most of the volume came from the huge cross so I think it would be better to wait at the gap instead of chasing and buying it higher. Or I could just buy when it breaks 40.
It was a boring day for NIKL because the market was up. 5-minute chart was flat the entire time until it was bought up by ASIASEC at the closing. Today also have the lowest volume turnover in the current trend. Calm before the storm or sign of impending reversal? Closing bid looks delicious though.
Hypothetical short positions in AP is down by 4.50% and MER is down by 3.50%.
Gains of FLI +4.76%, MER, +3.18%, AP +2.52%, PCOR +2.27%, AEV +1.73%, and SM +1.30% pushed the index higher today while PLDT -0.35%, and MBT -0.84% held up their grounds with relatively smaller losses in comparison to yesterday.
Other gainers with significant turnover are BEL +4.45% and DFNN +3.56%. Other losers with significant turnover today are led by JAP's ORE -5.34%, NI -4.63%, LC -2.27% and SECB -2.24% after they released their income report for the whole 2010.
Macquarie got rewarded after pushing PCOR yesterday.
It seems like BEL has formed a short term reversal pattern today with a target of 5.40 to 5.50 at most.
AEV broke above 38.50 - intraday high 38.70 - but unable to sustain its rally, closing lower from intraday high at 38.30. It would seem that it has already broke out of its sideways-to-down trend today but I am still skeptical about the break out because most of the volume came from the huge cross so I think it would be better to wait at the gap instead of chasing and buying it higher. Or I could just buy when it breaks 40.
It was a boring day for NIKL because the market was up. 5-minute chart was flat the entire time until it was bought up by ASIASEC at the closing. Today also have the lowest volume turnover in the current trend. Calm before the storm or sign of impending reversal? Closing bid looks delicious though.
Hypothetical short positions in AP is down by 4.50% and MER is down by 3.50%.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
Inverted head and shoulder pattern: 28500 (done - 28700)
Bullish flag/pennant: 31700 (rough estimate - $14.37/lb)
Possible upside at current price: 13.90%
Short to medium crazy nickel forecast: $16/lb
Nickel chart is filed under Nickel Asia(NIKL) chart.
CASH BUYER 28,670.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,680.00
Looking way back into the bigger picture:
Just broke out of the bigger inverted head and shoulder. Judge it for yourself.
It seems to me that the demand for the metal is growing though.
Holding up?
The market closed slightly lower today by 5.95 points on a relatively average turnover that we have without the huge cross sales daily. And it would pretty much safer to assume that the current downtrend is going to last until the actual reversal. Falling method candlestick pattern has also formed on the daily charts suggesting the continuation of further downtrend.
The rally on Hang Seng Index barely had any effect on Asian markets.
The decline today is led by TEL -2.20% breaking heavily from its support, PNB -3.26%, AC -1.12%, ALI -0.68%, and MER -0.45%.
Cushioning the fall are PCOR +7.16%, ICT +3.70%, MEG +2.49%, MBT +2.32%, SM +1.55%, and AGI +1.23%. Without the gains from these issues, the index would have fallen hard today.
Other losing issues with significant turnover value includes LND -4.46%, CYBR - which I thought had a valid breakout buy signal yesterday, fell 3.48%, JAP stocks ORE and SLI, losing 3.10% and 3.08% respectively.
Trades are pretty much scattered everywhere. Macquarie have been buying PCOR by mid session. Looking at the charts, it seems to be poised to move sideways with support at 13.50 and resistance at 16.
I think it was UBS who was trying to push AEV up(barely) with 0.80% gain today. Chart-wise, one more "up day" but will not exceed 38.50 before heading back and fill the gap at 33.65.
There seems to be a bullish pattern forming on the daily chart of NIKL but I could be biased as I have a position in the stock. All positions are now up though. One thing I can say though, spot price for nickel is up by 3%.
*Price of nickel in LME lags by a day.
Will post my "technical analysis" on nickel.
How can I be hungry and sleepy at the same time?
The rally on Hang Seng Index barely had any effect on Asian markets.
The decline today is led by TEL -2.20% breaking heavily from its support, PNB -3.26%, AC -1.12%, ALI -0.68%, and MER -0.45%.
Cushioning the fall are PCOR +7.16%, ICT +3.70%, MEG +2.49%, MBT +2.32%, SM +1.55%, and AGI +1.23%. Without the gains from these issues, the index would have fallen hard today.
Other losing issues with significant turnover value includes LND -4.46%, CYBR - which I thought had a valid breakout buy signal yesterday, fell 3.48%, JAP stocks ORE and SLI, losing 3.10% and 3.08% respectively.
Trades are pretty much scattered everywhere. Macquarie have been buying PCOR by mid session. Looking at the charts, it seems to be poised to move sideways with support at 13.50 and resistance at 16.
I think it was UBS who was trying to push AEV up(barely) with 0.80% gain today. Chart-wise, one more "up day" but will not exceed 38.50 before heading back and fill the gap at 33.65.
There seems to be a bullish pattern forming on the daily chart of NIKL but I could be biased as I have a position in the stock. All positions are now up though. One thing I can say though, spot price for nickel is up by 3%.
*Price of nickel in LME lags by a day.
Will post my "technical analysis" on nickel.
How can I be hungry and sleepy at the same time?
Monday, February 14, 2011
Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP)
Accelerated downtrend.
Signs of reversal:
1. Formation of higher peak and trough.
2. Steep decline on heavy volume.
The steep decline on heavy volume would be the "blast to put the fire out". A parabolic drop so to speak - the sign of capitulation.
Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV)
Waiting and watching it test the strength of the possible reversal. Reversal in the works.
Alliance Global Corporation (AGI)
It would be much safer to assume that it will simply range trade til kingdom come, unless it does a convincing breakout - strong candlestick pattern and heavy volume.
Breakdown to the downside - support at 10.90 - will prompt a sell signal.
Breakup to the upside - resistance at 13 - will prompt a buy signal.
To lessen the risk of the trade, take profits/take cover after the breakout and buy back at the breakout point to test the strength of the trend.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
CASH BUYER 27,830.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 27,835.00
Down by 1.5% from last Thursday.
From the beginning of the year(01/01/11 - $12.62/lb), Nickel prices has risen by 10.50% up to date(02/14/11 - $12.62/lb) with a high of $13/lb last February 8.
Sell on rally?
The market rebounded in today's session with 47.58 points, 1.27% higher from Friday's session along with other Asian markets, with Hang Seng leading the rally with +1.30%.
However, value turnover is relatively light in today's rally.
Leading the rally for today are ALI +4.29%, MBT +2.38% and DMC +1.53% while the selling of TEL continued further today, losing another 0.34% and now resting at its support at 2360.
Other gainers with significant turnover are CYBR +11.65% and LIHC +4.71%.
I closed my position in AGI for a total of -1% of equity. The weak opening prompted me to sell it, plus the distribution of several foreign brokers specially Deutsche and Macquarie for over a week now felt more obvious than before, with COL only supporting the stock, I felt I was on the wrong side of the trade, thus the closing of the position.
From the proceeds of the position in AGI, I decided to complete the position in NIKL today. I put a bid of 21.65 after the opening. My bid didn't get hit disappointingly so around 11:15, I decided to cancel by bid and buy at the market. It closed lower at 21.70. How frustrating. 25% of the position I got at around 22-ish are suffering from a small paper loss while the majority of the position I got lower at 19-20 range are still holding up the gains so I am still net positive in the issue.
Just following its trend to minimize the stress in trading. Need to endure the drawdown though. Anyway, 5-minute chart looks pretty good as it seems to be sold down at the closing. Let's see how this one goes this week.
If only I had more patience to wait for a couple of days.
Still watching AEV, AP, JGS, and URC for possible reversal plays. I lowered the priority for FLI and MEG for the meantime until they fully recover from their downtrend. For the meantime both are still falling knives and dead cat bounces.
I don't know what to say with SCC today, but I got buy signal today. It looks pretty ugly with a small white candle today but I don't know. I think I'm going to range trade this one in the meantime. Weekly and daily trend is up.
Still a very selective market, I guess the best stocks to range trade or cat plays are the ones with relative volatility.
CYBR looks pretty interesting issue for this kind of play. Weekly trend is up, daily trend is up but intraday chart looks pretty manipulated as was only bought up at the closing.
However, value turnover is relatively light in today's rally.
Leading the rally for today are ALI +4.29%, MBT +2.38% and DMC +1.53% while the selling of TEL continued further today, losing another 0.34% and now resting at its support at 2360.
Other gainers with significant turnover are CYBR +11.65% and LIHC +4.71%.
I closed my position in AGI for a total of -1% of equity. The weak opening prompted me to sell it, plus the distribution of several foreign brokers specially Deutsche and Macquarie for over a week now felt more obvious than before, with COL only supporting the stock, I felt I was on the wrong side of the trade, thus the closing of the position.
From the proceeds of the position in AGI, I decided to complete the position in NIKL today. I put a bid of 21.65 after the opening. My bid didn't get hit disappointingly so around 11:15, I decided to cancel by bid and buy at the market. It closed lower at 21.70. How frustrating. 25% of the position I got at around 22-ish are suffering from a small paper loss while the majority of the position I got lower at 19-20 range are still holding up the gains so I am still net positive in the issue.
Just following its trend to minimize the stress in trading. Need to endure the drawdown though. Anyway, 5-minute chart looks pretty good as it seems to be sold down at the closing. Let's see how this one goes this week.
If only I had more patience to wait for a couple of days.
Still watching AEV, AP, JGS, and URC for possible reversal plays. I lowered the priority for FLI and MEG for the meantime until they fully recover from their downtrend. For the meantime both are still falling knives and dead cat bounces.
I don't know what to say with SCC today, but I got buy signal today. It looks pretty ugly with a small white candle today but I don't know. I think I'm going to range trade this one in the meantime. Weekly and daily trend is up.
Still a very selective market, I guess the best stocks to range trade or cat plays are the ones with relative volatility.
CYBR looks pretty interesting issue for this kind of play. Weekly trend is up, daily trend is up but intraday chart looks pretty manipulated as was only bought up at the closing.
