The market reacted to the turmoil in Middle East(Libya), causing the index to lose 53.37 points, lower by 1.39% with relatively lower turnover volume. No buyers perhaps? The index held better than its Asian counterparts who are now losing a little less than 2% on the average.
The gainers today with considerable volume are ANI - which is now resting at its 50EMA - gained another 5.96% today, probably just trying to catch more suckers in, MA/B with 3.33/3.44% gains respectively, LC with 1.20% - one fluctuation, and MWIDE with 1.60%.
Losers are pretty lot today, led by MEGW1 -7.21%, DFNN -5.98%, PCOR -5.30%,
MEG -4.27%, LND -3.70%, RLC -3.69% - probably because of its 1:2 rights offering at P10 coupled by the bearish market condition - and CYBR -3.67%.
TEL met another wave of selling losing 0.70%, SCC and MBT both losing 2.98%, AP -1.8%, AEV -2.33%. Other non-index issue loser includes NIKL -3.06%.
The only index gainer today is AC gaining 0.89% - gave me a buy signal at 341.
AP candlestick pattern looks profitable. I think today's pattern has a high probability of turning into a winner. AEV has yet to give a buy signal.
RFM looks exactly the opposite of AP so buy signal will probably be generated late this week to early next week.
NIKL got pretty much sold down at the opening, barely recovering at the closing. ASIASEC also started to shoot his own foot today. ASIASEC tried to push the issue up last Feb 16/17 buying 500k shares at the close. Today they crossed 500k shares. Did the guy got out already?
I could be mistaken that R&L is shorting the stock today as there were no short covering at the close. But if they are just purely profit-taking, why take profits at the lower end of the price range? Price difference from 23 is too wide for a stop. Hmmm..
I hope everyone who wanted to sell has already sold everything they have already.
Covered my hypothetical short positions in MER and AP today.
MER lost 2.35% and AP just lost on commission and taxes. Reverse positions tomorrow?
*I was actually scanning for possible trades last night. I was looking for long black candlesticks on the lower end of trading ranges for possible short term reversal plays and I was a little frustrated not to find any. It never occurred to me that I would see alot of them today. Ironically, I had it coming lol. Nothing is making sense in this market anymore suxlol
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
European markets are down big time(more than 1%) amidst the turmoil in the Middle East (Libya).
Oil is now back to 90.25 levels gaining +4.70% and GOLD now 1405 up by 1.25%, 25 points away from its all time high of 1430 as of this writing.
I think I need gold's historical data so I can plot them on local gold producing issues if they are correlated or not.
Our market has been totally random with no correlation with DOW at all now. Up DOW, PSE down, down DOW, PSE down. Jezuz. /wrist
Oil is now back to 90.25 levels gaining +4.70% and GOLD now 1405 up by 1.25%, 25 points away from its all time high of 1430 as of this writing.
I think I need gold's historical data so I can plot them on local gold producing issues if they are correlated or not.
Our market has been totally random with no correlation with DOW at all now. Up DOW, PSE down, down DOW, PSE down. Jezuz. /wrist
Monday, February 21, 2011
Uninteresting day
The market lost 13.80 points today on a lower value turnover, closing lower at 3837.
It is still a scattered market, with second liners leading the gainers with few third liners, led ANI +11.37%, DFNN +7.17%, RFM +4.97%, MWIDE +3.95%, PA +2.99%, LIHC +2.30%, and FOOD +2.25%.
Losers are also scattered among all sectors, led by LND -3.57%, NIKL -2.97%, ORE -2.86%, AP -2.83%, CMT -2.78%, and PCOR -2.58%. Other index heavyweights today are AEV, MEG, DMC, TEL, MBT, and MER, averaging 1% or so loss today.
MWIDE seems to be performing well in the current market condition after its IPO last Friday as it closed higher at 8.15 today.
ASIASEC gave away a pretty good amount of money today in MER as they sold it down to 220 before recovering right away, closing at 232. That's pretty nice profit for MER bidders. 5.45% gain in a day is not bad by simply waiting.
AEV and RFM looks attractive now.
NIKL could possibly drop another 2% or so before it starts heading back up. Waiting for nickel prices to turn back up.
*Ninja edit: Nickel just broke past its previous high of 28700 today(as posted on Bloomberg) and now trading at 29400, 0.9% higher from the previous session at 28250 so I really don't understand today's decline in NIKL.
Current market condition is probably not the right time to follow trend. Will swing trading produce better profits at current market situation?
It is still a scattered market, with second liners leading the gainers with few third liners, led ANI +11.37%, DFNN +7.17%, RFM +4.97%, MWIDE +3.95%, PA +2.99%, LIHC +2.30%, and FOOD +2.25%.
Losers are also scattered among all sectors, led by LND -3.57%, NIKL -2.97%, ORE -2.86%, AP -2.83%, CMT -2.78%, and PCOR -2.58%. Other index heavyweights today are AEV, MEG, DMC, TEL, MBT, and MER, averaging 1% or so loss today.
MWIDE seems to be performing well in the current market condition after its IPO last Friday as it closed higher at 8.15 today.
ASIASEC gave away a pretty good amount of money today in MER as they sold it down to 220 before recovering right away, closing at 232. That's pretty nice profit for MER bidders. 5.45% gain in a day is not bad by simply waiting.
AEV and RFM looks attractive now.
NIKL could possibly drop another 2% or so before it starts heading back up. Waiting for nickel prices to turn back up.
*Ninja edit: Nickel just broke past its previous high of 28700 today(as posted on Bloomberg) and now trading at 29400, 0.9% higher from the previous session at 28250 so I really don't understand today's decline in NIKL.
Current market condition is probably not the right time to follow trend. Will swing trading produce better profits at current market situation?
Gold (EOD)
Looks like gold is poised to move up again. Pullbacks to the 50EMA is a buy.
No price projections for gold except the recent high of 1430 which provides a possible upside of 3.10% from the previous close.
MACD is forming lower highs and lower lows. Has gold already ran its course already?
No idea, just trying my TA on GOLD.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
I reread Ben Graham's book again this afternoon and I found astoundingly similar principles with trend following on profitability and success, that is keeping everything simple.
It seems that I am on the right track since I have been trying to simplify my trading system, Simply put, I am trying to switch to a trend following system.
I still need to keep the system I am using now based on short term tech analysis though to cover up monthly expenses.
My money management still needs further refinement though.
I still feel that I am still missing something but that's what I can think of right now.
It seems that I am on the right track since I have been trying to simplify my trading system, Simply put, I am trying to switch to a trend following system.
I still need to keep the system I am using now based on short term tech analysis though to cover up monthly expenses.
My money management still needs further refinement though.
I still feel that I am still missing something but that's what I can think of right now.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Friday, February 18, 2011
Time to test the grounds.
The market suffered again its morning sickness again, gaining 25 points on the opening before losing ground to profit takers and AFP pulling funds(kidding), closing lower by 15 points at 3851. If the recent low at 3723 holds, the index might consolidate(better) for a while before reversing. If it does not, then downtrend is still not over.
Again, as one could expect during declines, leading gainers for today are mostly speculative third liners, led by PRC +16.36%, OPM +7.69, ABA +4.60%, MARC +4.50%, SINO +4.35% and T +4.10%.
The only blue chip with relative value turnover is MER, gaining 3.03% for today.
Index losers is led by AP -2.08%, BDO -1.54%, DMC -1.16% AC -0.89%, AGI-0.68%, and MBT-0.50%.
There was also a huge cross in HP at 2.50. Can this cross jumpstart price action in short term?
RFM also continued its gains from yesterday, gaining another 3.87% on relatively lower volume from yesterday. If it reaches 1.65, it might start coming back to life again. It has relatively high discount from its fair value and weekly chart looks relatively bullish.
AEV is now back to uptrend and just started its correction today after meeting its old resistance at 40. Buy on correction and/or buy on breakout. Weekly chart looks pretty good.
I can't say the same for AP though. 2.35% gain over the week vs AEV 5.41% in the same week. I also feel like its weekly chart still looks weak mainly because of its bearish candlestick pattern(falling method - continuation pattern). Still bearish with AP so I'm still keeping the hypothetical short position open.
NIKL declined by 1.72% today after being bought up by ASIASEC for the past 2 days. I think someone in BDO noticed this so I believe he's the one who put up the 1M shares or so on the closing(possibly challenging ASIASEC to buy it up again). Weekly chart is up but is now showing slight hesitation to move up.
MER looks like a buy on pull back if it reaches 250-266 before it starts to retrace. Will cover the hypothetical shorts if it does.
So there, those are basically the issues I am currently observing.
TEL looks ready for a reversal already as RSI has already flattened out. Daily RSI is also at the lowest level in 10 years. However, Weekly RSI has yet to drop below mixing the signals. Despite of the mixed signals, I am inclined to believe that its more biased towards moving up so risk is now minimal. Shares are now cheaper for dividend play plus a potential upside of 13% if it does reverse. However, TEL moves relatively slow so it is not recommended for trading.
New hypothetical position in JFC.
Again, as one could expect during declines, leading gainers for today are mostly speculative third liners, led by PRC +16.36%, OPM +7.69, ABA +4.60%, MARC +4.50%, SINO +4.35% and T +4.10%.
The only blue chip with relative value turnover is MER, gaining 3.03% for today.
Index losers is led by AP -2.08%, BDO -1.54%, DMC -1.16% AC -0.89%, AGI-0.68%, and MBT-0.50%.
There was also a huge cross in HP at 2.50. Can this cross jumpstart price action in short term?
RFM also continued its gains from yesterday, gaining another 3.87% on relatively lower volume from yesterday. If it reaches 1.65, it might start coming back to life again. It has relatively high discount from its fair value and weekly chart looks relatively bullish.
AEV is now back to uptrend and just started its correction today after meeting its old resistance at 40. Buy on correction and/or buy on breakout. Weekly chart looks pretty good.
I can't say the same for AP though. 2.35% gain over the week vs AEV 5.41% in the same week. I also feel like its weekly chart still looks weak mainly because of its bearish candlestick pattern(falling method - continuation pattern). Still bearish with AP so I'm still keeping the hypothetical short position open.
NIKL declined by 1.72% today after being bought up by ASIASEC for the past 2 days. I think someone in BDO noticed this so I believe he's the one who put up the 1M shares or so on the closing(possibly challenging ASIASEC to buy it up again). Weekly chart is up but is now showing slight hesitation to move up.
MER looks like a buy on pull back if it reaches 250-266 before it starts to retrace. Will cover the hypothetical shorts if it does.
So there, those are basically the issues I am currently observing.
TEL looks ready for a reversal already as RSI has already flattened out. Daily RSI is also at the lowest level in 10 years. However, Weekly RSI has yet to drop below mixing the signals. Despite of the mixed signals, I am inclined to believe that its more biased towards moving up so risk is now minimal. Shares are now cheaper for dividend play plus a potential upside of 13% if it does reverse. However, TEL moves relatively slow so it is not recommended for trading.
New hypothetical position in JFC.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Time for celebration?
The market gained 54 points today, closing higher by 1.43% on a slightly lower turnover value. Pretty much exciting day for the blues today.
The rally is led by ALI +4.09%, BPI +4%, JFC +3.90%, DMC +3.61%, with MBT +1.95%, AGI +1.89%, AEV +1.83%, and AP 1.58% as honorable mentions. Other gainers with considerable turnover are MAB +6.90% and RFM +6.16%.
Today's top losers are the third liners APM -5.56% and ELI -3.95% while GLO is the heaviest losing 2.99% today.
Did I see it right? Macquarie have been buying RFM heavily at the closing. ATR is also seems pretty heavy with this issue for this month. Something must be cooking. Value turnover seems anemic though.
The Aboitiz issues seem to have come back to life again. My trend buy signal yesterday on AEV seems to be valid(and working too) while AP has yet to generate any signal.
NIKL seems to be being manipulated by ASIASEC. It was a boring day -lowest turnover if only not from the cross of Deutsche - and it was already doing at 21.85 at the closing(pre-open/pre-close). When I checked it back, it was back to 22.30 with ASIASEC as the culprit. I feel like he could have just bid lower at 21.85 too. Intra-invest has been missing on the board and has stopped his selling this past few days. I wonder what has gotten into him.
Still trending with SCC.
Hypothetical short position in MER is down by 5.19%. Will cover once it retrace to 214-220 levels.
Hypothetical short position in AP is down by 6%. Will cover at 27.75-28.
The rally is led by ALI +4.09%, BPI +4%, JFC +3.90%, DMC +3.61%, with MBT +1.95%, AGI +1.89%, AEV +1.83%, and AP 1.58% as honorable mentions. Other gainers with considerable turnover are MAB +6.90% and RFM +6.16%.
Today's top losers are the third liners APM -5.56% and ELI -3.95% while GLO is the heaviest losing 2.99% today.
Did I see it right? Macquarie have been buying RFM heavily at the closing. ATR is also seems pretty heavy with this issue for this month. Something must be cooking. Value turnover seems anemic though.
The Aboitiz issues seem to have come back to life again. My trend buy signal yesterday on AEV seems to be valid(and working too) while AP has yet to generate any signal.
NIKL seems to be being manipulated by ASIASEC. It was a boring day -lowest turnover if only not from the cross of Deutsche - and it was already doing at 21.85 at the closing(pre-open/pre-close). When I checked it back, it was back to 22.30 with ASIASEC as the culprit. I feel like he could have just bid lower at 21.85 too. Intra-invest has been missing on the board and has stopped his selling this past few days. I wonder what has gotten into him.
Still trending with SCC.
Hypothetical short position in MER is down by 5.19%. Will cover once it retrace to 214-220 levels.
Hypothetical short position in AP is down by 6%. Will cover at 27.75-28.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
Too bad that I could only get historical data starting from January 1.
Volume on the chart is the volume of supply for that day (in tonnes).
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Nickel: Opening stocks(tonne) and Price - Updated daily
Opening stock(tonne) and Price:
Date-opening stock-price:
Since the peak of supply last January at 137766, supply has started to decline up to date. Supply has dropped by 5% since then, driving the price of nickel higher by 11.20%.
Supply and demand baby, Econ1. My college prof would be proud! :)
If I get lucky, I could probably make a line graph with this data in Metastock.
It's a shame though because I could only access data from the beginning of the year.
Filed under NIKL.
Date-opening stock-price:
FEBRUARY 2011
18
17 129924 28295.00
16 130248 28550.00
15 130248 28895.00
14 130422 28670.00
11 131112 27830.00
10 131898 28005.00
09 132330 28255.00
08 132936 27850.00
07 132828 28700.00
04 132798 28070.00
03 133500 27775.00
02 134172 27710.00
01 134442 27650.00
JANUARY 2011
31 134040 27070.00
28 134298 26820.00
27 135186 26795.00
26 134862 26150.00
25 134958 25750.00
24 135174 26265.00
21 130248 25850.00
20 137124 25645.00
19 137238 26190.00
18 137352 26355.00
17 137766 25985.00
14 136302 25460.00
13 136662 25720.00
12 135096 25060.00
11 135864 24590.00
10 136806 24045.00
07 136896 24340.00
06 137040 24870.00
05 136860 24640.00
04 136890 25170.00
Monthly Average: 25638.50
Since the peak of supply last January at 137766, supply has started to decline up to date. Supply has dropped by 5% since then, driving the price of nickel higher by 11.20%.
Supply and demand baby, Econ1. My college prof would be proud! :)
If I get lucky, I could probably make a line graph with this data in Metastock.
It's a shame though because I could only access data from the beginning of the year.
Filed under NIKL.
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
I probably should also monitor the supply of nickel stock daily to monitor whether the supply is increasing/decreasing. Had to dig a little deeper to find the info though. Daily price update first:
CASH BUYER 28,895.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,900.00
CASH BUYER 28,895.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,900.00
Philippine Stock Exchange (PCOMP)
Looks like that the Index is poised to resume its downtrend in the short term.
Major resistance at 4000.
Aboitiz Power Corporation (AP)
It looks like that the bearish symmetrical triangle pattern has been invalidated as prices have already moved out of the apex of the triangle.
Pullbacks after testing 29.80 in the short term would probably provide a good window for entry.
Rally!
The index gained 21 points in today's session with relatively lower volume if we don't count the huge cross - again - in AEV. I think that the rally today is just another tech bounce and it would pretty much safer to expect the market to continue to drop in the short term.
Gains of FLI +4.76%, MER, +3.18%, AP +2.52%, PCOR +2.27%, AEV +1.73%, and SM +1.30% pushed the index higher today while PLDT -0.35%, and MBT -0.84% held up their grounds with relatively smaller losses in comparison to yesterday.
Other gainers with significant turnover are BEL +4.45% and DFNN +3.56%. Other losers with significant turnover today are led by JAP's ORE -5.34%, NI -4.63%, LC -2.27% and SECB -2.24% after they released their income report for the whole 2010.
Macquarie got rewarded after pushing PCOR yesterday.
It seems like BEL has formed a short term reversal pattern today with a target of 5.40 to 5.50 at most.
AEV broke above 38.50 - intraday high 38.70 - but unable to sustain its rally, closing lower from intraday high at 38.30. It would seem that it has already broke out of its sideways-to-down trend today but I am still skeptical about the break out because most of the volume came from the huge cross so I think it would be better to wait at the gap instead of chasing and buying it higher. Or I could just buy when it breaks 40.
It was a boring day for NIKL because the market was up. 5-minute chart was flat the entire time until it was bought up by ASIASEC at the closing. Today also have the lowest volume turnover in the current trend. Calm before the storm or sign of impending reversal? Closing bid looks delicious though.
Hypothetical short positions in AP is down by 4.50% and MER is down by 3.50%.
Gains of FLI +4.76%, MER, +3.18%, AP +2.52%, PCOR +2.27%, AEV +1.73%, and SM +1.30% pushed the index higher today while PLDT -0.35%, and MBT -0.84% held up their grounds with relatively smaller losses in comparison to yesterday.
Other gainers with significant turnover are BEL +4.45% and DFNN +3.56%. Other losers with significant turnover today are led by JAP's ORE -5.34%, NI -4.63%, LC -2.27% and SECB -2.24% after they released their income report for the whole 2010.
Macquarie got rewarded after pushing PCOR yesterday.
It seems like BEL has formed a short term reversal pattern today with a target of 5.40 to 5.50 at most.
AEV broke above 38.50 - intraday high 38.70 - but unable to sustain its rally, closing lower from intraday high at 38.30. It would seem that it has already broke out of its sideways-to-down trend today but I am still skeptical about the break out because most of the volume came from the huge cross so I think it would be better to wait at the gap instead of chasing and buying it higher. Or I could just buy when it breaks 40.
It was a boring day for NIKL because the market was up. 5-minute chart was flat the entire time until it was bought up by ASIASEC at the closing. Today also have the lowest volume turnover in the current trend. Calm before the storm or sign of impending reversal? Closing bid looks delicious though.
Hypothetical short positions in AP is down by 4.50% and MER is down by 3.50%.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
London Metal Exchange: Nickel
Inverted head and shoulder pattern: 28500 (done - 28700)
Bullish flag/pennant: 31700 (rough estimate - $14.37/lb)
Possible upside at current price: 13.90%
Short to medium crazy nickel forecast: $16/lb
Nickel chart is filed under Nickel Asia(NIKL) chart.
CASH BUYER 28,670.00
CASH SELLER & SETTLEMENT 28,680.00
Looking way back into the bigger picture:
Just broke out of the bigger inverted head and shoulder. Judge it for yourself.
It seems to me that the demand for the metal is growing though.