Nothing much to post today as I was at school earlier and was only able to trade by 10:30am. PX/LC/LCB has already drop in within the levels of my expectations(+/-10%) courtesy of the bearish divergence on the daily chart so the issues could rebound anytime, most likely when DOW/GOLD rebounds.
I tried to scalp earlier today despite of the crappy market this noon. Got my hands some papercut trying to trade XAU-USD and USD-CHF with my trend/volatility system despite of both being range bound. So I lost the $400 that I gain in EUR-USD the last time which I am trying to recuperate right now on EUR-USD again and I kinda recovered half of what's lost already.
I think it's alot better to trade EUR-USD than GOLD and CHF as I always have terrible fills in both GOLD and CHF.
Somehow, it feels like it's alot easier to trade on the short side?
Candlesticks doesn't seem to work on the 10-sec chart...
Maybe it's just my imagination.
Next time I'll make another demo account with smaller capital($1000) as I don't know if I can handle the $5000 account with maxed leverage on actual trading. Right now, I am trading the whole account in 1 position only with maxed leverage with a very tight stop.
*Ninja edit: My take profits point didn't get hit just now @1.4350 in my short position (EUR-USD).
Monday, June 13, 2011
Friday, June 10, 2011
FX: Trial by Fire
Day 1: -3600$$ (US%100k - Different account)
Day 2: -400$$ (US$5000 - Different account)
Day 3: +395$$ (US$5000 - Same account: D2 )
Day 4: -740%% (US$5000 - Same account: D2 )
Day 2: -400$$ (US$5000 - Different account)
Day 3: +395$$ (US$5000 - Same account: D2 )
Day 4: -740%% (US$5000 - Same account: D2 )
Forex demo account : Trial by Fire.
I have been thinking really hard on what I am doing wrong in the forex the past 2 days since I lost around US$3600 the first time I tried.
Day 1
The first system that I tried was using was a 9-50 EMA crossover on a 30-sec chart, which takes both long and short position. At first I was impressed as it produced profits on both sides. But when I checked my trades, the crossover produced only a maximum of 8 pips which kinda sucks since I had been reading other people's disclosures of minimum of 100 pips. Then the choppy session came. The losses from the sideways session piled up together with the 8 pip gain that I didn't take, I was devastated and my head started to spin so I decided to take one final trade before calling it quits for the day. I went short on GOLD and slept.
The next day it had a 2.45. That's 2450 pips if I'm reading it right, right? I closed it because it was a half-meant trade so I am counting that one on pure dumb luck.
Lost 3600USD using the system in a 100k account(3.6% of capital).
**No idea on how pips work, where to put the stop loss, trailing stops, and proper position size to maximize the leverage. I didn't even know how buy/sell stops work lol.
Day 2
So I made a new account and put a more reasonable and realistic amount that I can actually put up. This time I used the triple EMA crossover (9-18-50). It also takes both sides of the trade. Disappointingly, it lost more than it won so I decided abandon it and used another system(buy above high-sell below low) which also failed miserably. lol.
Anyway, I started asking myself why the triple EMA crossover didn't work in FX while it worked and showed profitable results in the stock market. Then it got me thinking that I have to be on the right side of the market. With that in mind I decided to "zoom out" and check for 50EMA in longer time frames and trade with the 50EMA trend.
Got really tired so I decided to call it quits.
Lost 400USD using both systems in a 5000USD account(8% of capital).
Lesson: Trade with the trade. Don't take unneccessary trades. Sit tight when winning and set trailing stops. Don't be too eager to trade/wait for the right setup.
Day 3
I probably had the best trade today so far as I was able to gain $$50 above my starting capital haha. I lost it anyway when I started doing what I was doing in my first 2 days of FX trading. After losing the $$50 that I gained, I lost another $200 when I deviated from today's trading plan. After I reconized my own stupidity, I decided to FINALLY follow my trading plan LOL. So, I took the next trade and I was up by $200!!! But then I got really greedy I didn't put up a trailing stop! LOL!
So what do you expect from a pig other than get slaughtered?
Lesson: Don't be a pig and set trailing stops. Trade with the trend.
Let's see if I can break-even tonight. Currently short on EUR/USD.
*Trade setups. Trade with trend. Trade with trailing stops.
**I also tried selling lower and buying higher but both failed miserably. I probably should use them with the 50EMA.
***Currently using the triple EMA crossover in 1-minute chart + 50EMA on the 30-minute chart. Entry points are more often retested than not.
Day 1
The first system that I tried was using was a 9-50 EMA crossover on a 30-sec chart, which takes both long and short position. At first I was impressed as it produced profits on both sides. But when I checked my trades, the crossover produced only a maximum of 8 pips which kinda sucks since I had been reading other people's disclosures of minimum of 100 pips. Then the choppy session came. The losses from the sideways session piled up together with the 8 pip gain that I didn't take, I was devastated and my head started to spin so I decided to take one final trade before calling it quits for the day. I went short on GOLD and slept.
The next day it had a 2.45. That's 2450 pips if I'm reading it right, right? I closed it because it was a half-meant trade so I am counting that one on pure dumb luck.
Lost 3600USD using the system in a 100k account(3.6% of capital).
**No idea on how pips work, where to put the stop loss, trailing stops, and proper position size to maximize the leverage. I didn't even know how buy/sell stops work lol.
Day 2
So I made a new account and put a more reasonable and realistic amount that I can actually put up. This time I used the triple EMA crossover (9-18-50). It also takes both sides of the trade. Disappointingly, it lost more than it won so I decided abandon it and used another system(buy above high-sell below low) which also failed miserably. lol.
Anyway, I started asking myself why the triple EMA crossover didn't work in FX while it worked and showed profitable results in the stock market. Then it got me thinking that I have to be on the right side of the market. With that in mind I decided to "zoom out" and check for 50EMA in longer time frames and trade with the 50EMA trend.
Got really tired so I decided to call it quits.
Lost 400USD using both systems in a 5000USD account(8% of capital).
Lesson: Trade with the trade. Don't take unneccessary trades. Sit tight when winning and set trailing stops. Don't be too eager to trade/wait for the right setup.
Day 3
I probably had the best trade today so far as I was able to gain $$50 above my starting capital haha. I lost it anyway when I started doing what I was doing in my first 2 days of FX trading. After losing the $$50 that I gained, I lost another $200 when I deviated from today's trading plan. After I reconized my own stupidity, I decided to FINALLY follow my trading plan LOL. So, I took the next trade and I was up by $200!!! But then I got really greedy I didn't put up a trailing stop! LOL!
So what do you expect from a pig other than get slaughtered?
Lesson: Don't be a pig and set trailing stops. Trade with the trend.
Let's see if I can break-even tonight. Currently short on EUR/USD.
*Trade setups. Trade with trend. Trade with trailing stops.
**I also tried selling lower and buying higher but both failed miserably. I probably should use them with the 50EMA.
***Currently using the triple EMA crossover in 1-minute chart + 50EMA on the 30-minute chart. Entry points are more often retested than not.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
AGI: Short term rally targets
AGI initial short term target hit 10.30(10.31).
Next 10.63
Best case 11.10
Next 10.63
Best case 11.10
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
AGI
The reasons why I didn't come scampering to this stock when it gapped down are:
1. Gap down from support.
2. Triple EMA breakdown prior to the gap.
3. Close below 11 as it completes the H&S pattern that formed
(AGI analysis dated Jan 19 http://the-morningstar-option.blogspot.com/2011/01/alliance-global-group-agi.html#comments).
Had you faded the gap, the best you could have gotten from the trade is 5.94%. That is if you got the exact low and high of the leg.
However, it appears to be forming a bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart. A close higher than today's closing will confirm the bullish divergence, suggesting a short term rally to 10.31 up to 10.63 and 11.10 as the best case scenario.
It could rally, it could not and I am not willing to place my bet on this one.
Also, the minimum short term target isn't enough to justify the trade so I wouldn't touch this one yet.
I'd wait for a bullish RSI divergence on the weekly charts in the mean time.
To the next trade!
RFM: Capitulation(?)
Daily Chart:
Capitulation? Long black candle with spike in volume suggests panic selling. DMI(ADX) value has also reached the highest in the last six months. RSI value has also reached its lowest in the last six months.
However, despite of observations, I believe that it would be better to watch price action to stabilize first before taking any actions such as bullish divergence on daily and weekly charts and/or sideways breakout.
RSI has dropped below 30 on the weekly chart suggesting a parabolic drop is probably in the works.
Capitulation? Long black candle with spike in volume suggests panic selling. DMI(ADX) value has also reached the highest in the last six months. RSI value has also reached its lowest in the last six months.
However, despite of observations, I believe that it would be better to watch price action to stabilize first before taking any actions such as bullish divergence on daily and weekly charts and/or sideways breakout.
Weekly Chart:
RSI has dropped below 30 on the weekly chart suggesting a parabolic drop is probably in the works.
Trading plan: Watch the circus. Sell rallies to 20EMA.
Increased position in PX. Average of PX holdings are now stuck at the middle of the tight trading range. Target still intact, just waiting for the breakout to happen.
LC bounced off support but met resistance at its WPP. LCB hardly retraced to its breakout point. LCB has better price action.
Attempting to predict LC top for tomorrow: 0.97.
URC seems to be forming a flag/pennant. Buying pressure appears to be building up.
AGI forming a bullish divergence on the daily chart? If yes then it could probably yield a 10% gain from its new trough(none as of this writing).
Not much issue to trade with, except for mining issues and other selected issues.
Didn't touch PWR, still unfamiliar with parabolic moves. Too scared to be the one left holding the empty bag.
P1 cash div in DMC, ex-date on the 10th of June. Yield is 2.41% using the recent close(41.40).
I'm liking the 5-minute divergences. I still need more practice!
LC bounced off support but met resistance at its WPP. LCB hardly retraced to its breakout point. LCB has better price action.
Attempting to predict LC top for tomorrow: 0.97.
URC seems to be forming a flag/pennant. Buying pressure appears to be building up.
AGI forming a bullish divergence on the daily chart? If yes then it could probably yield a 10% gain from its new trough(none as of this writing).
Not much issue to trade with, except for mining issues and other selected issues.
Didn't touch PWR, still unfamiliar with parabolic moves. Too scared to be the one left holding the empty bag.
P1 cash div in DMC, ex-date on the 10th of June. Yield is 2.41% using the recent close(41.40).
I'm liking the 5-minute divergences. I still need more practice!